Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[vbhoutex]

Latest from Jeff Lindner:

Major Winter Storm heading for SE TX
Significant accumulations of snow expected on Tuesday/Tuesday night over the area.

Winter Storm Warning issued for Tuesday: Brazos, Burleson, Madison, Houston, Trinity, Polk, San Jacinto, Grimes, Montgomery, Walker

Winter Weather Advisory issued from 200pm Tuesday to 600am Wednesday: Harris, Austin, Colorado, Fort Bend, Liberty, Waller, Wharton

Discussion:

Overall consensus today has been to push the snowfall and accumulations southward which now brings Harris County more under the threat for accumulations. Models are still hammering away at some fairly hefty banding features over the northern ½ to 1/3 of the area and feel some surprisingly high totals may be had in the area bounded by College Station to Livingston. Will likely also see snow all the way to the coast mixed with the rain Tuesday night.



Will start to see accumulations by mid morning Tuesday up north and then spread southward during the day on Tuesday. Will see rain start to mix and change to snow from NW to SE during the afternoon on Tuesday with many areas having all snow by Tuesday evening. Ground temperatures are warm and some of the snow will melt on impact. Heavy snow bands will help mitigate the warm ground allowing for quick accumulations over our northern counties. Additionally, as surface temperatures fall toward and to freezing Tuesday evening greater accumulation and formation of glazing of area bridges/overpasses appears likely. Would like to see lower dewpoints for IAH on Tuesday to support accumulations, but it looks close enough especially if moderate/heavy snow falls for some quick accumulation even with surface temperatures above freezing…similar to Dec 4, 2009.



Accumulations:



College Station to Livingston northward:

Accumulations of 2-4” with higher amounts (6+” possible).



Columbus to The Woodlands to Humble northward:

Accumulations of 1-3” with isolated amounts to up 4 inches



Katy to downtown Houston to Liberty northward:

Accumulations of .5-1”



Sugar Land to Pearland to High Island northward:

A dusting to ½ inch of accumulation.



South and West of Sugar Land to High Island:

Snow will mix with the rain, but no accumulation is expected

[weatherguy425]

txagwxman- I just got home from school, am i missing something... it seems like that throughout the day confidence has GROWN for snow into the metro?

[southerngale]

This is from HOU NWS.




By comparison, yesterday I was in the mainly cold rain area (well between the two areas to be exact, in the black. lol) Now I'm in the rain/snow (under an inch of snow possible) area, not TOO terribly far from the next area. Keep shifting south!

Yesterday, College Station, Huntsville, Lufkin, etc. were in the 1-2 inch area. Now they're in the 2-4 inch area.

The trend looks good for SE TX.

Yesterday:

Actually the latest computer models have trended the other way (18z NAM, 12Z ECMWF).

new NAM went south...

Nederlander posted that just before your post.

So which is it?


Generally, is the Euro as good in the short term as it is in the medium to long range?

[srainhoutx]

18Z GFS looks abit colder and enough qpf to do the job. Congrats Portastorm ...

[benrayrog]

New to the forum. Been following it the past 2-3 weeks. I've noticed the accuracy here is far greater than the meteorologists at DFW TV stations. Looking forward to seeing how this system plays out for us here in East Texas and what may still be ahead in the next 7-10 days. Keep it up with the great information!

[Nederlander]

new NAM went south...

Nederlander posted that just before your post.

So which is it?


Generally, is the Euro as good in the short term as it is in the medium to long range?

i think we are talking about two different things.. i meant that the precipitation moved south.. i think he meant the temperatures retreated from the coast a little bit... So yea the precip is further south, but the temps got warmer along the coast... at least on the NAM

18z gfs out now.. looks about the same as 12z, a little further south and a little drier, not much different though..

[Weatherdude20]

New to the forum. Been following it the past 2-3 weeks. I've noticed the accuracy here is far greater than the meteorologists at DFW TV stations. Looking forward to seeing how this system plays out for us here in East Texas and what may still be ahead in the next 7-10 days. Keep it up with the great information!

Thanks! Welcome aboard!

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

18z gfs looks a little better from austin to college station.

[wxman57]

txagwxman- I just got home from school, am i missing something... it seems like that throughout the day confidence has GROWN for snow into the metro?

Which metro? You might edit your profile to put in your location. My immediate thought was Houston area, but you may mean the D-FW Metroplex.

[weatherguy425]

sorry I meant houston, specifically Kingwood

[Aquaria]

Hi all, I am fairly new to the forum (came in with "snowmageddon"). I really appreciate all the input and explanations.

I'm excited for my friends in Houston and Austin to finally get some snow! But I haven't heard much about East TX - specifically Tyler/Longview. NWS hasn't issued anything for us - are we looking at a dusting only you think? Thanks!

[Nederlander]

18z gfs looks a little better from austin to college station.

yep.. so does the 18z NAM.. it brings that precipitation further south to your region.. its still the 18z though.. i think the 00z is going to be very interesting.. the next set of runs are going to need to come together a little more or we are going to have contradicting models going into the 18-24 hour zone.. leaning towards the gfs right now.. NAM looks too warm and dry to me.. or maybe my eyes hurt

Aquaria,

As per the latest model runs... that area looks to see some good snow accumulation.. a couple of inches or more

[southerngale]

i think we are talking about two different things.. i meant that the precipitation moved south.. i think he meant the temperatures retreated from the coast a little bit... So yea the precip is further south, but the temps got warmer along the coast... at least on the NAM

18z gfs out now.. looks about the same as 12z, a little further south and a little drier, not much different though..

Ah, ok. FWIW, I believe the NAM has performed poorly with winter events in Texas thus far, having a warm bias, so maybe it does this time as well. The confidence has definitely grown with our NWS, for at least most of us seeing something. I guess we'll see. I'll believe it when I see it falling.


Welcome to Storm2k, benrayrog & Aquaria.

[wxman22]

Hi all, I am fairly new to the forum (came in with "snowmageddon"). I really appreciate all the input and explanations.

I'm excited for my friends in Houston and Austin to finally get some snow! But I haven't heard much about East TX - specifically Tyler/Longview. NWS hasn't issued anything for us - are we looking at a dusting only you think? Thanks!

Well according to your local NWS you could see up to 4 inches!

[southerngale]

Kudos to wxman57 for getting people to put their locations in their profiles. He's always on the ball!

[somethingfunny]

A word of wisdom to our friends in Central Texas....if the snow really starts to pile up, watch out for weak tree limbs! Especially all the ones that died during the monster drought of the past year. If you get 5"+ of snow, there will be serious tree damage! The time to prepare is now...I don't advocate getting on a slippery icy ladder and brushing the snow off the trees in the middle of a snowstorm.

[CaptinCrunch]

Seems NWS FTW is running late with afternoons AFD??



I think the 2-4 totals will shift up to include all of DFW and the 4-6 area to exspand a little both north and south.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Issued a winter weather warning for Nacogdoches county now

[Tireman4]

sorry I meant houston, specifically Kingwood

From Jeff Lindner-Pro Met

Columbus to The Woodlands to Humble northward:

Accumulations of 1-3” with isolated amounts to up 4 inches

[Aquaria]

Thanks wxman and all, they must have just put that up or I'm going blind. Woohoo - twice in one year is just amazing. My kids are going to start expecting this every winter.