Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[CaptinCrunch]

it's in

[b]AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CST MON FEB 22 2010

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPGRADED SOUTHERN HALF OF WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING. TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WARNING AREA...WITH 4- TO 6-INCH AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE NEAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF CWA. THE REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS
WATCH WILL NOW BE IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ALONG WITH TWO
NEW ROWS OF COUNTIES TO THE NORTH (INCLUDING DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX). THAT PORTION OF THE ADVISORY AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR SHOULD WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW AMOUNTS
UNDER 2 INCHES. WSW PRODUCT WILL ELABORATE FURTHER ON SPECIFIC
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

STILL SUBSTANTIAL AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF LARGE-
SCALE FEATURES AMONG CURRENT OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS. RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY AND MINIMAL SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IMPLY
REDUCED CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SYNOPTIC SCALE FIELDS
WITH FUTURE RUNS. NONETHELESS...EVEN SLIGHT VARIATIONS COULD
GREATLY ALTER POTENTIAL IMPACTS. THE INTERMEDIATE 18Z NAM HAS
SHIFTED THE PATH OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL FURTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE
(OUTLIER) 12Z GFS PERFECT PROG PRECIP GENERATION IS ANOMALOUSLY
FAR NORTH FOR ITS MASS FIELDS. WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A TIGHT
SNOWFALL GRADIENT...RESIDENTS AND TRAVELLERS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST
OF ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

TYPICALLY WITH WINTER EVENTS IN NORTH TEXAS...DETERMINING PRECIP
TYPE IS THE GREATEST CHALLENGE. HOWEVER...THE WARM NOSE NEAR 800MB
(EVIDENT ON 12Z FWD RAOB) WILL LIFT AND COOL AS 800MB FRONT SURGES
INTO SOUTHERN ZONES AND FRONTAL SLOPE STEEPENS. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
WILL BEGIN IN WESTERN ZONES LATER THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA ON TUESDAY. A DEEP FETCH OF MOISTURE WILL
RACE UP THE SLOPE...SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 50KTS NEAR 700MB FEEDING THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ABOVE IT. THE RESULT WOULD BE PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...COMMENCING IN SW ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK...
IN SC ZONES MID TO LATE MORNING...AND IN SE ZONES BY MIDDAY. ANY
RAIN THAT FALLS INITIALLY SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW.

PARTIAL CLEARING NEAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF CWA IS HAVING MINIMAL
EFFECT ON AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...BUT MAY ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE
COOLING THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN SOUTHERN
ZONES LATE TONIGHT AS UPGLIDE ENSUES. SURFACE TEMPS WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA AT THE ONSET OF SNOW WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ALTHOUGH GROUND TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING
(BUOYED BY TEMPS IN THE 70S SUNDAY AFTERNOON)...SNOWFALL RATES
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL TO NEAR FREEZING AND REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THROUGHOUT
THE COURSE OF THE EVENT. WITH SOME MELTING OF SNOW LYING ON THE
GROUND...MAXIMUM DEPTH MAY BE LESS THAN TOTAL SNOWFALL.

FOR AREAS ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING DALLAS/FORT WORTH...
THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH MID
MORNING...BEFORE 700MB FRONT PLUNGES SOUTH OF I-20...EFFECTIVELY
ENDING SIGNIFICANT SNOWS IN NORTHERN HALF OF THE ADVISORY AREA.
WITH TRAILING 500MB TROUGH AXIS LIFTING SOME ICE CRYSTALS
THEREAFTER...FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOWS
WITHIN MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE
MORNING. EVACUATING LOW/MID CLOUDS MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB TO
AROUND 40F TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EFFECTIVELY MELTING MUCH OF THE
SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.[/b]

[weatherguy425]

weatherguy425 wrote:
sorry I meant houston, specifically Kingwood



From Jeff Lindner-Pro Met

Columbus to The Woodlands to Humble northward:

Accumulations of 1-3” with isolated amounts to up 4 inches

Well, he seems on the VERY high side...

[Tireman4]

weatherguy425 wrote:
sorry I meant houston, specifically Kingwood



From Jeff Lindner-Pro Met

Columbus to The Woodlands to Humble northward:

Accumulations of 1-3” with isolated amounts to up 4 inches

Well, he seems on the VERY high side...

Well maybe not. Look at the NWS...1-3 inches...Humble-Kingwood seem to be there in their graphic


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/

[weatherguy425]

well while I think that its to early to be very confident on precip totals... i'm thinkin more between 1/2 an inch to one inch, whish is supported by the graphic

[Tireman4]

well while I think that its to early to be very confident on precip totals... i'm thinkin more between 1/2 an inch to one inch, whish is supported by the graphic

I can tell you this ( and this is from a weather weenie..LOL), he, Wxman57 and others have been nails on many events. The December 4 snow in the Houston area.. they called it right ( well close) on the nose. What pans out, I do not know. I am not a pro-met and do not proclaim to be one. I just listen to all who are on here.

[weatherguy425]

ahah I know! but there would have to be some serious banding for those toals this far south and he's one of the only pro mets calling for totals that high...

[Nederlander]

Do you like this snow depth chart a little better Southerngale ?


http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2010&model_mm=02&model_dd=22&model_init_hh=18&fhour=33&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[attallaman]

This is from HOU NWS.




By comparison, yesterday I was in the mainly cold rain area (well between the two areas to be exact, in the black. lol) Now I'm in the rain/snow (under an inch of snow possible) area, not TOO terribly far from the next area. Keep shifting south!

Yesterday, College Station, Huntsville, Lufkin, etc. were in the 1-2 inch area. Now they're in the 2-4 inch area.

The trend looks good for SE TX.


Yesterday:

Cool graphics.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

We aren't getting the huge moisture feed from the STJ with this storm yet like the snowmageddon storm. Maybe we see a higher activity when the Low gets closer, but so far im not seeing that.

[Tejas89]

Radar indicating a solid batch of precip. heading due east off the Trans-Pecos.

(ok, I admit I just wanted to say "Trans-Pecos")

[southerngale]

Do you like this snow depth chart a little better Southerngale ?


http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2010&model_mm=02&model_dd=22&model_init_hh=18&fhour=33&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

Indeed, I do. I'm in the green area! (for the first time, I believe)

Who cares if it's the 18z, right?

[txagwxman]

sorry I meant houston, specifically Kingwood

The 12z ECMWF backed off a little, that is why i was mentioning. But the latest 18z has gone a little colder aloft for north Houston to support snow tomorrow evening. That and looking at obs north of us, makes it seem that the GFS has the right idea, and the 12z ECMWF is too warm. Enjoy your snow day to the north guys...and Austin, College Station. Maybe I can squeeze out an inch...

[Weatherdude20]

Snow expanding very nicely.

http://www.accuweather.com/radar-local. ... &site=KAMA

(East to West for now)

[Ntxw]

Time to keep an eye on radars, models have done about just as much as they can (though the RUC is a very good resource in the immediate range). With all of the wobbling they have done this has potential to be a bust somewhere. Though it's looking like much of Texas is going to see snow out of this system.

[Nederlander]

I have a question.. How are the models handling the speed of this storm? When can I expect snowfall to begin and end in East Texas? Places like Lufkin and Nacogdoches?

[setxweatherfreak]

Do you like this snow depth chart a little better Southerngale ?


http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2010&model_mm=02&model_dd=22&model_init_hh=18&fhour=33&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

Indeed, I do. I'm in the green area! (for the first time, I believe)

Who cares if it's the 18z, right?

Holy Moly - we're turning green? Wowzer!!




*edited by sg to fix quotes

[Weatherdude20]

Time to keep an eye on radars, models have done about just as much as they can (though the RUC is a very good resource in the immediate range). With all of the wobbling they have done this has potential to be a bust. Though it's looking like much of Texas is going to see snow out of this system.

Sorry Ntxw, for once, I don't understand you, (maybe an error??) do you mean bust as in no snow, or a lot more than NWS has predicted ??

[Ntxw]

Time to keep an eye on radars, models have done about just as much as they can (though the RUC is a very good resource in the immediate range). With all of the wobbling they have done this has potential to be a bust. Though it's looking like much of Texas is going to see snow out of this system.

Sorry Ntxw, for once, I don't understand you, (maybe an error??) do you mean bust as in no snow, or a lot more than NWS has predicted ??

Bust as in someone somewhere got a forecast of 4 inches and end up with one, or vice versa someone forecasted for 1 inch gets 4. It's going to snow based on radar returns

[WacoWx]

^^^yeah this guy.

[Weatherdude20]

Time to keep an eye on radars, models have done about just as much as they can (though the RUC is a very good resource in the immediate range). With all of the wobbling they have done this has potential to be a bust. Though it's looking like much of Texas is going to see snow out of this system.

Sorry Ntxw, for once, I don't understand you, (maybe an error??) do you mean bust as in no snow, or a lot more than NWS has predicted ??

Bust as in someone somewhere got a forecast of 4 inches and end up with one, vice versa someone forecasted for 1 inch gets 4.

Ok, Im not seeing where it can be that situatuion currently, but, maybe more than expected.