Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

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southerngale
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#8781 Postby southerngale » Tue Feb 23, 2010 11:46 am

Good discussion by NWS LCH. Notice the last paragraph. This may not be the last chance for winter precip in SE TX! Wow.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
655 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2010

.DISCUSSION...
WHEW! BUSY FORECAST OVERNIGHT WHICH WAS COMPLICATED BY SOME
SOFTWARE ISSUES...SO MY APOLOGIES FOR THE DELAY. WHAT HAS BECOME
EVEN MORE APPARENT SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING IS THAT NEARLY ALL OF
THE AREA HAS A CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS
USUAL...FIGURING OUT WHEN THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN WILL OCCUR AND
HOW MUCH IS LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE REMAINS THE CHALLENGE.

AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS THAT THE TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OCCUR OVER THE EAST TEXAS LAKES INTO
WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW TAKING PLACE HERE BY EARLY EVENING.
THE RAIN/SNOW MIX
LINE WILL LIKELY SHIFT A LITTLE EAST AND/OR SOUTH...BUT WILL LARGELY
REMAIN STATIC THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THAT SHOULD
CHANGE BY THIS EVENING...WITH THE TRANSITION LINE RAPIDLY
SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS...THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL FOLLOW SUIT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS
OF 2 TO 2.5 INCHES STILL LOOKS ON TARGET FOR TYLER...NORTHERN
JASPER...AND NORTHERN NEWTON COUNTIES...AND VERNON PARISH.
AMOUNTS
FARTHER EAST INTO RAPIDES AND AVOYELLES ARE LOOKING A LITTLE MORE
SUSPECT IN TERMS OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING...AS I AM CURRENTLY
EXPECTING GENERALLY 1.5 TO 2 INCHES THERE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER BANDING TO PRODUCE HIGHER TOTALS...THE
AREAL EXTENT OF THE WARNING WILL REMAIN AS IS.

SOUTH OF THE WARNING AREA...AMOUNTS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...1 TO
2 INCHES ALONG/NORTH OF THE US-190 CORRIDOR...AND LESS THAN ONE
INCH ALONG/SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR STILL LOOK ON
TARGET.


LOOKING BRIEFLY AT THE MEDIUM TO EXTENDED RANGE...STILL LOOKS LIKE
TWO SYSTEMS ARE SLATED TO AFFECT THE REGION...THE FIRST ON FRIDAY
AND THE SECOND ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL FEATURES...BUT DO HAVE SOME RELATIVELY
SMALL TIMING ISSUES THAT NEED TO BE RESOLVED. WINTER PRECIP WILL
BE A CLOSE CALL WITH BOTH...BUT LETS GET THROUGH THE ONE
IMMEDIATELY IN FRONT OF US FIRST.

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#8782 Postby Annie Oakley » Tue Feb 23, 2010 11:48 am

Gosh it's hard to work today.We're all going outside and taking pics of each other-worse than little kids. It is 34 degrees now in Austin.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#8783 Postby rkbjunior » Tue Feb 23, 2010 11:59 am

Portastorm wrote:
artist wrote:
Portastorm wrote:And after a 30-40 minute break ... it is snowing again in downtown Austin ... very large flakes!

when ar eyou gonna be making that field goal? :ggreen: Will be awaiting those pics! lol Enjoy!


Well, we need it to stick to the ground now ... that's the next step!


It's starting to stick here in North Austin (near 183 & MoPac). The sidewalks are covered now and it's coming down pretty hard. The higher ups are meeting now to decide if we get to leave early. I'm probably leaving early anyway since I live in Georgetown and I know there's more snow up there.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#8784 Postby Storm Tracker SA-CS » Tue Feb 23, 2010 11:59 am

guys im getting worried...precip was forecasted to start as a rain snow mix but its all rain. been raining for 3 hours now. when is the changeover going to happen here?
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#8785 Postby Nederlander » Tue Feb 23, 2010 12:02 pm

Storm Tracker SA-CS wrote:guys im getting worried...precip was forecasted to start as a rain snow mix but its all rain. been raining for 3 hours now. when is the changeover going to happen here?

be patient.. I think after noon you will start seeing the changeover... temps as a whole were higher today than we thought they would be.. but you are still set up pretty good... there was already snow reported NW of Bryan.. its coming
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#8786 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Feb 23, 2010 12:03 pm

light rain here in nac now. Im fully confident that as the ULL advances through Texas, the precip will increase rapidly. Still sticking to a 1 pm changeover here. Temp is 37F
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#8787 Postby Storm Tracker SA-CS » Tue Feb 23, 2010 12:04 pm

do you still think we will get 2-4 inches or a little less now?
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#8788 Postby iorange55 » Tue Feb 23, 2010 12:05 pm

Heavy snow accumulation here in south dallas


Image


Crazy out there.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#8789 Postby gboudx » Tue Feb 23, 2010 12:08 pm

iorange55 wrote:Heavy snow accumulation here in south dallas


Crazy out there.


For a pic of what it looks like up here on the Richardson/Plano border, take that same pic and mentally remove the snow. Voila!
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#8790 Postby CypressMike » Tue Feb 23, 2010 12:10 pm

NW Harris county is toast. I believe the temp and dewpoint are way too high for snow today...or even tonight. At best, I think we might see some sleet and a few flakes mixing in as the precip winds down.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#8791 Postby Nederlander » Tue Feb 23, 2010 12:11 pm

Storm Tracker SA-CS wrote:do you still think we will get 2-4 inches or a little less now?

I think you could see 1-3.. which i believe is what the NWS has forecasted for your area.. I wouldnt expect all snow until later this afternoon though.. maybe around 2 or 3 p.m. youre still in good shape.. I am sure the Eller O&M building is buzzing over there today..

CypressMike wrote:NW Harris county is toast. I believe the temp and dewpoint are way too high for snow today...or even tonight. At best, I think we might see some sleet and a few flakes mixing in as the precip winds down.


It all depends on timing.. temperatures will fall during the evening hours.. if there is precip still available for Harris Co., then temps should be cold enough.. Thats why I am starting to think extreme SE TX has a good shot during the night tonight.. Beaumont could see some snow unless this thing just blows through tx really fast.. our temps in the golden triangle will be decent enough to allow it through the middle of the night.. just need the precip. to hang around.. not much accumulation, if any though..
Last edited by Nederlander on Tue Feb 23, 2010 12:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#8792 Postby Annie Oakley » Tue Feb 23, 2010 12:11 pm

They are releasing us to go home at noon!!!Yayyyyyy! :D
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#8793 Postby Storm Tracker SA-CS » Tue Feb 23, 2010 12:12 pm

haha ok good. yeah i bet they're going nuts in there!
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#8794 Postby Annie Oakley » Tue Feb 23, 2010 12:14 pm

Storm Tracker SA-CS wrote:haha ok good. yeah i bet they're going nuts in there!

Storm I am pulling for you to get your snow!!
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#8795 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Feb 23, 2010 12:14 pm

CypressMike wrote:NW Harris county is toast. I believe the temp and dewpoint are way too high for snow today...or even tonight. At best, I think we might see some sleet and a few flakes mixing in as the precip winds down.



I would not shut the door on this too soon. Anything can happen, especially with weather.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#8796 Postby WacoWx » Tue Feb 23, 2010 12:17 pm

~2 in+ on the ground...and only those that live >25 miles are okay to leave at noon. What kinda %#@& is that?

Any chances at the radar filling in as the Low moves east? getting sparse here/
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#8797 Postby Aquaria » Tue Feb 23, 2010 12:18 pm

Coming down pretty steady now in Tyler, but not a lick of it is sticking. Come on, temp!
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#8798 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 23, 2010 12:19 pm

WacoWx wrote:~2 in+ on the ground...and only those that live >25 miles are okay to leave at noon. What kinda %#@& is that?

Any chances at the radar filling in as the Low moves east? getting sparse here/


Band passing San Angelo looks to be the last of the heavy bands barring any new major developments. The real precip building is around the San Antonio\Austin region moving northeast.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#8799 Postby Storm Tracker SA-CS » Tue Feb 23, 2010 12:20 pm

Ntxw wrote:
WacoWx wrote:~2 in+ on the ground...and only those that live >25 miles are okay to leave at noon. What kinda %#@& is that?

Any chances at the radar filling in as the Low moves east? getting sparse here/


Band passing San Angelo looks to be the last of the heavy bands barring any new major developments. The real precip building is around the San Antonio\Austin region moving northeast.


is this going to be the heavy snow that were going to get this afternoon?
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#8800 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Feb 23, 2010 12:21 pm

WacoWx wrote:~2 in+ on the ground...and only those that live >25 miles are okay to leave at noon. What kinda %#@& is that?

Any chances at the radar filling in as the Low moves east? getting sparse here/



absolutely. With the graph someone just posted putting the Low still deep in west texas, as it moves closer towards the gulf, it will deepen. Thats my opinion. As long as the precip keeps falling your temp should stay down till more bands really gain strength.

Houston you arent out of the woods yet. There is cold air above you, just need some precip to help bring the temps down. I think NW Houston gets a dusting on grassy surfaces. SW Houston, like in SL, will see flakes but no significant accumulation late tonight.

Right now heavy sleet is back (Nacogdoches). I can hear it on my window "pinging" away
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