Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[msstateguy83]

exactly what iam thinking not that i think we need to go into panic mode BUT something has to give soon we will
soon be within 100 hrs hopefully we get a clearer ideal sooner rather then later....

[DentonGal]

18z GFS never really cuts off the low pressure system. This is under a week from the event so between now and then either the other global models have to give way or the GFS. Lets see what tonight's 0z runs portray.

If the GFS doesn't cut off the low pressure system, what does that mean for North Texas? Tons of rain?

[Nederlander]

I don't see this thing panning out for central or SE Texas.. I do think DFW has a shot but the best chance seems to be the panhandle and the along the red river.. GFS could be slow at sniffing this, dont write it completely off yet.. I believe it took a little while for it to sniff out the yesterdays storm..

OT: msstateguy, I think your posts are getting double posted for some reason

[msstateguy83]

this is the way things look at the moment it will likely change as we get closer to the event but i think the greatest
area of a heavy snow storm for the SUN/MON event will be over the tx panhandle, western, southwestern ok and
northwest tx... temps are the CRITICAL factor at this point if we can cool off quick enough this system could have SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA....

[b]The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.[/b]

[Ntxw]

For that storm, as of right now even at the most bullish the Euro (lack of free data so hard to tell) and Canadian keep the moisture south of the red river but of course temps there will be key. Nw Texas and North central Texas are both in the zone of possibly getting ripped of moisture via the forming gulf low (if one forms). That's maybe why the CPC doesn't have that general area under heavy snow (but personal opinion I'm thinking it will hold together enough). Currently the best threat area is the immediate panhandle and maybe far north east Texas until models change.

Lubbock has a pretty good graphic comparing GFS to EC (my assumption) 1 being GFS 2 be EC. Either way northern parts of Texas has a shot.

[katheria]

Portastorm,

did you get your snow??????

[msstateguy83]

its putting up to 0.82" of precip at sps for that peroid... so temps will be critical the 12z run only had like 0.40"

[wxman57]

18Z GFS has 1-2" snow along the Red River on Sunday. Moisture may be limited for significant snow.

[gofrogs2]

I tohught the gfs was the outlier doe nt a new model come out soon.

[srainhoutx]

Remember we have RECON data for the GFS. We should see the 12Z data from the G-IV Pacific mission in the 00Z runs tonight.

[gofrogs2]

REmeber how the gfs lost a storm in the mid range after showing it in the long range only to bring it back has happeened earleir this winter.

[srainhoutx]

Typical GFS. After all, they are just guidance at this range. Each have their 'bias'.

[gofrogs2]

Whats the latest with the model runs.

[Ntxw]

GFS hardly has a storm at all, meanwhile keeping it warmer in the panhandle (I find that so difficult to believe) than the red river valley with no snow for just about anybody.

[gofrogs2]

what aobut hte euro.

[Ntxw]

Euro doesn't come in for another 2-3 hours.

[msstateguy83]

that looks like a crappy not very trustable run.... imo

[wxag07]

why do some of you wishcast so much?

serious question...its march. you need dynamic systems with unseasonably cold air for snow in march. No cold front comes through the day before. Sunday we will see temps in the 50s.

[gofrogs2]

When i wake up in the morning i hope to see an analrysis of the euro.

[Ntxw]

why do some of you wishcast so much?

serious question...its march. you need dynamic systems with unseasonably cold air for snow in march. No cold front comes through the day before. Sunday we will see temps in the 50s.

How is it -removed- if the HPC has stated it is the outlier? The other global models have pointed a different picture. We are pointing out why we think the solution is incorrect based on the pattern. There is also a high coming down out of Canada, to say there is no cold air around is being ignorant, key will be if the high can build down fast enough. It can and has snowed in march, southern plains gets some of the biggest snowstorms with wide swings of temperature. With the kind of winter we have been in, why would you assume it can't happen?