Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Brent]

Birmingham:

BUT WE ARE STILL WATCHING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A
MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT GULF LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME COLD AIR
AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE 12Z GFS...WHICH HAD THE
SURFACE LOW STRANGELY SUPPRESSED ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE YUCATAN...
WAS SUMMARILY DISMISSED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE CONSISTENTLY
SHOWED A LOW MOVING CLOSE TO OR RIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WAS LARGELY
BASED ON THIS MORE SIGNIFICANT AND CLOSER GULF LOW SCENARIO.

[Stormcenter]

The excerpt below is from this (2/24) afternoon's NWS discussion out of
New Orleans, LA. I'll believe it when I see it.

.LONG TERM...
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DROPS OUT OF NORTHERN BRANCH INTO LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BRINGS A CLIPPER TYPE FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY RESEMBLE LAST NIGHT`S EPISODE WITH
SOME LIQUID PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY MIXING WITH FLURRIES ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGES BEFORE ENDING BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MENTION
OF SUCH WILL BE LEFT OUT OF PACKAGE DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES AND
MINIMAL IMPACT CONCERNS. LARGER ISSUE IN FORECAST STILL REMAINS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IN THE NEXT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. BOTH JET BRANCHES APPEAR TO COME INTO
PHASE FOR LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGHING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TO SUPPORT
STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER OR VERY NEAR THE GULF. DEPENDING ON
ACTUAL TRACK OF DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW...THIS COULD BE A WINTER
WEATHER SITUATION OR A COLD RAIN SITUATION. GFS SHOWS A MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH TRACK WHICH MAY LIMIT MOISTURE OVER LAND. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A BETTER SNOW SCENARIO WITH STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEFORMATION BANDING FOR A POTENTIAL BIG SNOW
EVENT. GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTIES THIS FAR OUT...WILL LEAVE AS RAIN AT THIS TIME AND MONITOR MODEL TRENDS INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
COMMITING TO WINTER PRECIPITATION. SUFFICE TO SAY...A PERIOD OF
INCLEMENT WEATHER DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY TIME FRAME DOES
APPEAR CERTAIN.

[Stormcenter]

Yeah I know what you mean about not getting too excited.

Euro absolutely destroys MS/AL/GA in what will probably be a foot of snow... very slow-moving everything will be closed for days type storm.

The Euro also gives the Gulfcoast from Louisiana to the Florida panhandle a HISTORIC snow event. I refuse to get excited!

[Brent]

Monday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

[One Eye]

With 5 days to go, just about all the models have a low getting cranked up in the gulf with heavy snow from Lousiana to Florida panhandle. The gfs has been advertising this for the last 10 days. Could this be a superstorm junior with the jetstreams phasing?

[Brent]

If the HPC verifies a lot of people are going to get a lot of snow:

[Ivanhater]

I am rooting for this low to EXPLODE in the Gulf...if it does, it will form a classic comma shape and give a lot of snow on the north and western side of it...Still being a few days out, I am certain there will be some highs and lows on model watch

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I refuse to fall into this trap. I had my hopes up way to high for the last two systems in hopes of seeing a decent amount of snow. The first we got about .3" that lasted about 25 minutes and with last nights it barely rained. This is like watching the models show a cat 4 or 5 blowing up in the gulf and making landfall somewhere on the n. central gulf coast in a weeks time. Get really excited(in a wierd sort of way) only to have a major letdown when a depression shows up raining out your only day off. As others have said I will just sit back and believe it when I see it.

[MGC]

I'm with Cyclone Mike on this one. I will belive it when I see it. So far I've only seen a few flakes, excluding the ones here at work. Getting kind of late in the winter season for snow....but who knows considering the pattern we have been in......MGC

[SunnyThoughts]

Not getting my hopes up either. I got to see a few flakes this winter, so Im good to go, if this happens then GREAT!. If it doesn't happen, I won't be so dissappointed. I am SOO ready for Spring and Summer.

[timNms]

I'm with Cyclone Mike on this one. I will belive it when I see it. So far I've only seen a few flakes, excluding the ones here at work. Getting kind of late in the winter season for snow....but who knows considering the pattern we have been in......MGC

If memory serves me correctly, I thought about the exact same thing in March '93 We had about 9 inches of snow then. And there was a surprise early April snow in the mid 80's when my wife, my daughter, and I lived in Hattiesburg. My daughter had just turned 1. My inlaws called us before daylight to tell us we had snow. We got my daughter up so she could see her first snow.

I said all of that to say this. I'm anxious for some spring weather (warmth!!!!) but I would not be surprised at all if we get another big snow storm before winter is done. So you guys (and ladies) living along and near the coast, don't give up hope yet.

[m_ru]

I will not fall for it until it's 32 degrees with precipitation here.

[Brent]

EPIC FAIL

[Brent]

0z Euro, beautiful, just east of here gets buried:

[Lane]

[Ivanhater]

Before we deal with the potential big storm on Tuesday. Saturday looks interesting for the Gulfcoast...Looks like some moderate snow for the Gulfcoast...


12z Nam



12z GFS

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS Snowfall accum for Saturday...Florida Panhandle will be a blanket of White!!!

[Stormcenter]

One day the GFS will get this right...let's hope for the folks along the Gulf coast sake it's this time around.

12z GFS Snowfall accum for Saturday...Florida Panhandle will be a blanket of White!!!

[cajungal]

I still get jipped yet again according to GPS, nothing for the Houma-Thibodaux area once again. while almost everyone else get to have their fun. we are about the only ones on the map besides Texas excluded. I am going to be in Baton Rouge March 2nd-3rd for a concert! hoping we have a shot then. at least I will be an hour and half further north!

[Stormcenter]

A very long and detailed discussion from NWS in Tallahassee, FL.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
245 PM EST Thursday Feb 25 2010

Short term...(tonight through saturday) gusty northwest winds will
diminish rapidly after sunset and go calm or near calm overnight.
This along with a very dry airmass and clear skies will result in
ideal radiational cooling. MOS temperatures for tonight still look a little
too cold and will stay above guidance by a few degrees. However...
this will support a hard freeze across all of our County Warning Area away from the
Florida coast. For Friday...middle and upper level moisture will be
increasing ahead of the next short wave which will drop into East
Texas by afternoon. A closed upper low should develop near the
arklatex Friday evening with a surface low forming just south of the
Louisiana coast. The low will intensify as it tracks just south of
due east Friday night moving inland near Tampa Saturday afternoon.
The GFS solution is much more bullish than the NAM in spreading
precipitation across our County Warning Area during the Friday night/Saturday time frame.
Of particular interest is its run to run consistency of showing
another opportunity of wintry weather along the Gulf Coast including
most of our Florida zones. The BUFKIT forecast sounding for ktlh
actually supports snow from around daybreak Saturday into the early
afternoon. The NAM sounding is too warm and shows tlh on the
northern fringe of the rain shield. The GFS is the outlier of the
short term models and HPC is preferring the NAM solution. We have
already advertised the possibility of a rain/snow mix during the
mentioned time frame and will continue along this line of thinking
with a slight adjustment to probability of precipitation. The window for the wintry mix
appears to be confined to around 09z Sat until about 15z Sat. Maximum
temperatures on Saturday will also be tricky with as much as a 13 degree
disparity between the colder mav and the met. This is due to the GFS
holding on to precipitation and nearly overcast conditions through the day.
Will split the difference on temperatures where they differ for now.


Long term...
(saturday night through thursday) progressive El Nino pattern
continuing through the long term period with a couple of lows
forecast to move through the Gulf of mex interspersed with cold
outbreaks. This period begins with deep middle level troughiness over
the eastern Seaboard with a surface low now east of Florida. In its
wake..trough moves offshore and skies clear out nicely for Sunday
into Monday as high pressure temporarily builds into our region.
By late Monday...another middle level trough deepens around the miss
valley Monday while upper level jetstream drops into the NE Gulf.
This helps to develop and sharpen next Gulf low which moves eastward
across Florida Peninsula Tuesday morning. However...here models diverge
and this makes for tricky forecast.


The 00z GFS and Euro both keep US on the cold side of this storm.
Now...the latest GFS run is even further south than pre run and well
south of European model (ecmwf)..so it backs off further on local impacts.
Conversely...the Euro which brings the low further to the north with
the northern fringes approaching our coastal waters also has a much
larger moisture field wrapping around the backside of the system
into Wednesday morning. Partial thickness and 850mb temperature analysis suggest
a brief wintry mix possible but boundary layer still a tad too warm
to support snow although this needs to be monitored closely as we
approach event. If the Euro verifies...this is a more potent storm
system than the Gulf low that crossed on Sat with a middle level trough
digging through the southeast and a rather impressive upper level
jet moving through the peninsula. It also would lead to locally
heavier precipitation amounts (river rises) and very tight gradients
between Gulf low to our south...and high to our north. If conds
become more favorable for wintry precipitation...this could yield sharp
change in precipitation type over short distances as well as brisk and
gusty winds with possibly gale force winds over the water. Again
inconsistency with models leads ME to shy away from solid precipitation at
this time. After the low lifts northeastward by by Tuesday afternoon...strong high
pressure builds in with a dry and cool airmass dominated the NE Gulf
Tuesday evening through Thursday.