Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[mitchelliii]

I like the way you think!

[Brent]

[wxman57]

As we're seeing with today's storm across Texas, the GFS did a poor job in predicting accumulations that were an inch or less. I suspect that the area inside the green 1" line may be a better estimate of accumulations across the south with this storm. Soundings indicate possible snow in north-central MS/AL northeastward.

[Brent]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
245 PM EST MON MAR 1 2010

...WINTER STORM EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA ON TUESDAY...

.A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...BRINGING A
SURGE OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION. RAIN WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...AND WILL CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THE MIX WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...BEGINNING IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA AND SPREADING TO THE
SOUTHEAST.

GAZ001>005-011-012-019>025-027-030>035-041>045-020345-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WS.W.0004.100302T1300Z-100303T0500Z/
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-CHATTOOGA-GORDON-FLOYD-
BARTOW-CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-
COBB-NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-
SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...ROME...CARTERSVILLE...
GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...LAWRENCEVILLE...CARROLLTON...
DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...DECATUR
245 PM EST MON MAR 1 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EST TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8
AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH GEORGIA...NORTH OF A LINE FROM CARROLLTON...TO
ATLANTA...TO JEFFERSON.

RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WEST...
AND HOLDING OFF UNTIL NEAR NOON IN THE EAST. ONCE THE SNOW
BEGINS...ACCUMULATIONS OF ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
245 PM EST MON MAR 1 2010

...WINTER STORM EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA ON TUESDAY...

.A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...BRINGING A
SURGE OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION. RAIN WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...AND WILL CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THE MIX WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...BEGINNING IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA AND SPREADING TO THE
SOUTHEAST.

GAZ036>039-046>060-066>068-070-020345-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0009.100302T1700Z-100303T0500Z/
CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-ROCKDALE-WALTON-NEWTON-MORGAN-
GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-SPALDING-HENRY-
BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-TROUP-MERIWETHER-PIKE-LAMAR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATHENS...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...
PEACHTREE CITY...GRIFFIN
245 PM EST MON MAR 1 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON
TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM LA GRANGE...TO JACKSON...TO
CRAWFORDVILLE. THE ADVISORY IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM EPHESUS...TO
MONROE...TO LEXINGTON.

RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WEST...
AND HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON IN THE EAST. ONCE THE SNOW
BEGINS...ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

[Brent]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
237 PM CST MON MAR 1 2010

...ANOTHER SNOW STORM POSSIBLE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.A STORM SYSTEM...OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WILL
INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. IF IT WAS A
LOT COLDER...THIS WOULD BE A CLASSIC SCENARIO FOR A SIGNIFICANT
SNOW STORM OVER ALABAMA. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY
WARM RIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AND THIS LOWERS THE
PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD OVER ALABAMA TONIGHT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
TO SNOW GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM MONTEVALLO TO
SYLACAUGA...TO ROANOKE...WHERE A WINTER STORM ADVISORY HAS BEEN
POSTED.

AT THIS TIME...SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ABOUT ONE-
HALF OF AN INCH OVER JEFFERSON AND SHELBY COUNTIES...WITH ONE TO
TWO INCHES EAST TO THE GEORGIA STATE LINE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR AMOUNTS GREATER THAN TWO INCHES OF
SNOW... AND IF THIS MATERIALIZES EARLY TUESDAY...THIS ADVISORY
WOULD HAVE TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING.


ALZ017>021-024>029-021015-
/O.NEW.KBMX.WW.Y.0008.100302T1000Z-100303T0000Z/
BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-
ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...ANNISTON...CENTRE...
HEFLIN...BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...COLUMBIANA...PELHAM...ALABASTER...
PELL CITY...MOODY...TALLADEGA...SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...ROANOKE
237 PM CST MON MAR 1 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST
TUESDAY.

RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TUESDAY...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 4 AM
IN THE BIRMINGHAM METROPOLITAN AREA...AND IN THE GADSDEN AND
ANNISTON AREAS AROUND 6 AM. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM ONE-HALF OF AN INCH OVER JEFFERSON AND SHELBY COUNTIES
TO ONE TO TWO INCHES EASTWARD TO THE GEORGIA STATE LINE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$

[Brent]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
247 PM CST MON MAR 1 2010

...SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

.A STORM SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
COMBINE WITH COLD AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT...CHANGING TO ALL
SNOW BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.

ALZ008-010-020600-
/O.NEW.KHUN.WS.W.0005.100302T1000Z-100303T0000Z/
MARSHALL-DEKALB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUNTERSVILLE...FORT PAYNE
247 PM CST MON MAR 1 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6
PM CST TUESDAY.

SNOW IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS...ON TUESDAY.
WITH TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING...ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND GRASSY AREAS. TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF TWO TO THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN MARSHALL
AND DEKALB COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME
LOCATIONS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE LESS THAN TWO INCHES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY.

&&

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
247 PM CST MON MAR 1 2010

...SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

.A STORM SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
COMBINE WITH COLD AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT...CHANGING TO ALL
SNOW BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.

ALZ006-007-009-016-TNZ097-020600-
/O.NEW.KHUN.WW.Y.0009.100302T1000Z-100303T0000Z/
MADISON-MORGAN-JACKSON-CULLMAN-FRANKLIN TN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HUNTSVILLE...DECATUR...SCOTTSBORO...
CULLMAN...WINCHESTER
247 PM CST MON MAR 1 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM
CST TUESDAY.

SNOW IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS...ON TUESDAY.
WITH TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING...ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND GRASSY AREAS. TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND ONE INCH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST
IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF JACKSON AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES. SOME
LOCATIONS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

[Brent]

[mitchelliii]

24 hours ago - Atlanta news saying no accumulation. Now - 1.5 - 7 inches. Typical.

[Brent]

Yep... lol

Wow at the 18z GFS, very heavy snow sets up in Eastern Alabama and Northern Georgia during the afternoon tomorrow

[mitchelliii]

24 hours ago - Atlanta news saying no accumulation. Now - 1.5 - 7 inches. Typical.

Sorry - I forgot to mention that this is NOT a complaint. Just funny how the news reacts to this. Went from sunshine and spring on the way to Winter storm warning and (funny) commercials about kids wishing for a snow day.

[Brent]

My new forecast...

Tonight...Rain until early morning...then rain and snow late in the night. Little or no snow accumulation. Lows in the mid 30s. Northeast winds 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Tuesday...Colder. Snow and rain. Snow accumulation up to 2 inches. Near steady temperature in the upper 30s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Tuesday Night...Mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of snow in the evening. Lows in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.

[Brent]

[MGC]

Enjoy the snow....I got to hear a bit of thunder this afternoon.....MGC

[Brent]

Enjoy the snow....I got to hear a bit of thunder this afternoon.....MGC

Been wondering if we might have some... the snow is likely going to be very heavy so it is possible.

[Ntxw]

Temps here in Texas were very similar to what it is in the south starting out in the 50s and low 30s dew points falling to around 40 when heavy precip fell. The surface temps never lowered deep enough for snow except for higher elevations in West Texas. I wonder if the same is going to pan out in the southeast.

[Jag95]

I drove home through some very heavy rain, with some lightning and thunder thrown in. A potent system. Good luck with the snow.

[attallaman]

Enjoy the snow....I got to hear a bit of thunder this afternoon.....MGC

You got to hear a bit of thunder? Have you been outside tonight? The winds are blowing here out of the NNW at 36, gusting to 44, currently the temperature here with those high winds and rain is 46F. How's the weather tonight in the Pass? Getting any wind over there MGC? Still got my Piggly Wiggly egg nog on ice, ready and waiting for the next snow.

[Ivanhater]

Under a severe thunderstorm warning here..I also have a hard time believing Alabama will see anything significant from this storm(huge dry punch pushing in)..certainly not the "epic" storm some of the models were forecasting a few days ago. There was snow in Florida this year, so it was a winter to remember, that's for sure!

61mph wind gust at the Navy base in Pensacola

[Ntxw]

This could've been an epic storm. All that moisture and winds would've made for quite a winter storm. Definitely is cold enough aloft however the cold air at the surface was stagnant cold. It needed a fresh injection of fresh cold that never really got into this storm. I'm still amazed at how many opportunities we had to talk about possible snow in Florida, that's about as many times northern parts of the south gets to see a year prior to this year.

[Jag95]

Under a severe thunderstorm warning here..I also have a hard time believing Alabama will see anything significant from this storm(huge dry punch pushing in)..certainly not the "epic" storm some of the models were forecasting a few days ago. There was snow in Florida this year, so it was a winter to remember, that's for sure!

61mph wind gust at the Navy base in Pensacola

The wind was making some noise a while ago. I haven't been keeping up with this storm, and I wasn't expecting that. It's finally starting to die down a little. It'll be interesting to see how my wraparound moisture this one manages as it's still strengthening. Somebody might get popped pretty good yet. Looks like Natchitoches, LA just changed over to snow. That could be a mistake though...the temp shows 43 degrees.

<edit> yep, they changed it back to rain.