JB speaks! Let the games begin.

[OuterBanker]

The past couple weeks JB has noted his concern over the season to come. He stated several things that are of concern. I think his main concern is the increasing humidity in the breeding grounds. Last years very dry air is the main reason for such lack of storms which is fairly common on a building El Nino. This years waning El Nino will be a different story. The PDO is also a concern.

His prelim 15 storms west of 55w, seven landfalls, five hurricanes two or three majors (I think he means landfalls).

Even spray with center of focus Fla. Years 1964, 2005, 1998.

He will wait till May for his season call.

Wow, didn't expect that!

All I know is that so far this year it has been the wettest, coldest and most miserable I can ever remember in my 58 yrs here in the east. And another Nor Easter Wednesday. And now this.

Add to that I am a die hard Steeler and Tar Heel fan, both a disaster after a championship year.

Boy is it hard to optimist this year.

[RL3AO]

Whatever you opinion is on JB's antics, he is one heck of a meteorologist. Especially when it comes to long range patterns and setups.

[Blown Away]

If the 2010 season predictions are using 64, 98, and 05 as comparison it's hard to argue against a busy landfall season for CONUS. I think I will lock my HO insurance policy now because if i wait until June the hype may drive my premium up.

[jinftl]

1964, 1998, & 2005 are scary analogue years for us here in Florida.

- In 1964, Florida saw 3 landfalling hurricanes - Hurricane Cleo in Miami, Hurricane Dora in St. Augustine, and Hurricane Isbell in Everglades City.

- In 1998, Florida saw 2 landfalling hurricanes - Hurricane Earl in Panama City, Hurricane Georges in Key West - and 1 landfalling tropical storm- Tropical Storm Mitch near Naples.

- In 2005, Florida saw 3 landfalling hurricanes- Hurricane Dennis on Santa Rosa Island, Hurricane Katrina near Hallandale Beach/Aventura, and Hurricane Wilma near Cape Romano - 2 landfalling tropical storms - TS Arlene near Pensacola and TS Tammy near Atlantic Beach, and 1 near-landfalling hurricane - Hurricane Rita passed 40 miles south of Key West and caused a 5 foot surge that flooded the airport and up to 4 blocks inland.

These 3 seasons were not just busy in Florida....the Northern Gulf states were severely impacted from landfalling storms in all 3 years (Hilda in '64, Georges in '98, Katrina & Rita in '05). Outside of the U.S., the '64, '98, and '05 proved to be disastrous for areas of the Greater Antilles (Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba) and the Yucatan and Central America as well.

All in all, if these turn out to be analogue years for the upcoming 2010 season, this board will be on fire for sure!!!


Storm Tracks for 1964 season:



Storm Tracks for 1998 season:



Storm Tracks for 2005 season:

[Macrocane]

As you said it's not only scary for US, but also for the Caribbean and Central America:

1964: Cleo, Hilda, Isbell and Twelve affected the region.
1998: Georges and Mitch, with being Georges one of the worst in the Caribbean and Mitch the WORST in Central America.
2005: Several storms affected the region but the most significant were Dennis, Emily, Stan, Wilma, Beta and Gamma.

[KWT]

The only issue is how much a fight the El Nino puts up, JB thinks it will die quickly but I'm not so sure it'll be gone nearly as quickly as he thinks, and obviously any El nino will peg things back even if other conditions are great, though it does mean a real threat obviously still of a biggie finding a gap, like Andrew did in 92.

[vbhoutex]

I DO NOT like those analogue years at all!! We will have to see if El Nino fades as predicted or fades earlier, which could lead to a busier season. Other factors are already pointing to a busier season so everyone needs to be sure they are preapared for any eventuality.

[wxman57]

El Nino is on its way out now. Euro has it gone before June. NCEP models are coming into agreement:

Euro forecast:


NCEP below. Note the BLUE lines - they're the newer members. All the blue lines are in the "neutral" area by May-June-July. Red lines are the older runs:


El Nino will most likely be gone, but more importantly, take a look at what the Euro is forecasting as far as the Sea Level Pressure Anomaly in the Atlantic (SLPA). SLPA forecast to be well BELOW NORMAL for June-August. That's just the opposite of 2009. Lower pressure means lower trade winds and less low level wind shear. It also means more moisture and less upwelling of cold water, so warmer SSTs. The higher SLPA in the East Pacific means sinking air there and rising air in the western Atlantic Basin - more storminess. All factors pointing to a significantly above normal season.

[cycloneye]

Interesting data there especially about the forecast of lower pressures in the Atlantic.It looks like the Caribbean folks have to be prepared for an active CV season.

[KWT]

Yeah Wxman57 if you believe the models at the moment thats the case, though early Spring is a terrible time generally for the ENSO models...

What I like about the latest ENSO forecasts, esp from the NCEP is they are factoring in the probable slight rise from the upwlling occuring and the increas ein subsurface temps currently and yret still drop it down decently for the star tof the season. The ECM wll NOT come off IMO given they are far too cold already in general, even the warmest ECM run is only just warm enough!

However as you say, there are too many factors that support an active season ATM, the SST's are frankly stunning, the pressure forecasts are good and suggestive, the ENSO forecasts are actually perfect for a super active season and the upper stratosphere has been running very cold over the past 12 months and obviously that needs to be watched as well.

IMO its all setting up to be a busy/hyperactive season, IF the eCM ensembles are right (which IMO they won't be!) then 1998 is a cracking match, if not then IMO 1995/1958 are the best matches IMO.

Pretty much all the seasons that had El Nino the winter before in the warm cycle of the Atlantic have come in well above average, so we should be prepared for a big one!

[hurricanetrack]

This is setting up to be one heck of a season- IF things hold. Recall how the Euro showed quite negative conditions around this time last year setting up for the 2009 season- and THAT panned out. So there is some credibility for sure, consistency too.

One thing to note is the strong negative NAO- the longer is stays negative, from what I understand, the longer it will take for the Azores High to set up shop to any degree. I read yesterday that GFS ensembles paint a -NAO well in to March. This will all certainly be interesting in terms of what CSU has to say in a little over a month.

[jinftl]

One thing to keep in mind is that steering patterns willl ultimately hellp decide and 'seal the deal' if any season is historic and memorable....if we have 20 fish storms and no landfalling hurricanes, the season could go down as 'above normal activity, minimal impact on coastal communities'. In other words, forgettable. Compare that to a season with 7 named storms with only one becoming a major hurricane. At first glance, that sounds like a 'dud' of a season...until the name of that one major hurricane during such a season is revealed....Andrew in 1992. Almost 20 years later, that season...because of one storm....still is a benchmark event.

Even in 2005...with 28 named storms...it was 'only' a small percent of those 28 that really did the catastrophic damage we saw that year....Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma. It only took one "Katrina" to devastate a city and the surrounding coastline to its east. New Orleans wasn't hit by 28 storms that year.

One thing that stands out to me from what i have been reading on this board....the sst anomalies in the basin and the forecast for lower than normal pressure readings in the coming months, along with what seems like will be enso neutral conditions (so less shear overall than we saw in 2009).....if these pan out, the factors that work together to support development would be lining up just right to spawn a busy season. Then the question will be....do we have a steering pattern set up like 2004 or 2005 that steered storms towards the U.S....or will we have a fish season?

[Blown Away]

The NHC is using 52,58,64,66,98,03,07 as the 2010 Analog years, not 2005. How did JB compare the 2010 season predictions to 2005?

[OuterBanker]

[quote]One thing to keep in mind is that steering patterns willl ultimately hellp decide and 'seal the deal' if any season is historic and memorable....if we have 20 fish storms and no landfalling hurricanes, the season could go down as 'above normal activity, minimal impact on coastal communities'. In other words, forgettable. Compare that to a season with 7 named storms with only one becoming a major hurricane. At first glance, that sounds like a 'dud' of a season...until the name of that one major hurricane during such a season is revealed....Andrew in 1992. Almost 20 years later, that season...because of one storm....still is a benchmark event.

Even in 2005...with 28 named storms...it was 'only' a small percent of those 28 that really did the catastrophic damage we saw that year....Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma. It only took one "Katrina" to devastate a city and the surrounding coastline to its east. New Orleans wasn't hit by 28 storms that year.

One thing that stands out to me from what i have been reading on this board....the sst anomalies in the basin and the forecast for lower than normal pressure readings in the coming months, along with what seems like will be enso neutral conditions (so less shear overall than we saw in 2009).....if these pan out, the factors that work together to support development would be lining up just right to spawn a busy season. Then the question will be....do we have a steering pattern set up like 2004 or 2005 that steered storms towards the U.S....or will we have a fish season?


JB’s prognostications generally are for storms west of 55w. For the reason mentioned here. The setups in the breeding grounds as well as steering patterns are of major concern. His concerns are for land falling hurricanes. In other words, storms that have no land falling impact are not considered.

[KWT]

JB said it because the Autumn of 04 did have a El nino and the fact that the pressure in the Atlantic is expected to be lower which is a big feature in the 2005 season.

IMO 1995 may not be a bad match either for this season...

[Hurricaneman]

I think el nino will be the deciding factor to whether or not Joe is right

[KWT]

Without a doubt the El nino is the key and its going to cause some people to bust in a big way depending on what side of the coin people go on so to speak.

The difference is a El Nino probably means about average with everything else the way it is, warm neutral or colder probably opens the door to hyperactive season...

[Blown Away]

IMO, the current warm SST's in the MDR are going to play a big factor and lead to an active season, especially if the El Nino dissipates as forecasted. I was reading the current warm SST's in the MDR are due to a weak BH this winter, I don't know how the current BH conditions will impact the hurricane season.

[StormClouds63]

Too many unknown factors right now, so I'm guessing an average to slightly above average season. Who knows?

It's been a very wet and cold winter here in southwest Louisiana as well. Finally looks like a moderating pattern is setting in with temperatures expected to reach the 70's later this week.

There's no way of predicting the number of storms in the Gulf based on the type of winter season, right? I remember snowfall in early 1973 and 1978, with little or no tropical activity in the Gulf later those years. We had snow also in December of 1983 and 1989, with little activity in 1984 or 1990. Of course, it snowed Christmas Eve in 2004, and 2005 was a bad year indeed. I remember a heavy snowfall in early February, 1988. Later that year, Florence hit near NO and Gilbert moved into the Gulf, but then weakened.

[SETXWXLADY]

Too many unknown factors right now, so I'm guessing an average to slightly above average season. Who knows?

It's been a very wet and cold winter here in southwest Louisiana as well. Finally looks like a moderating pattern is setting in with temperatures expected to reach the 70's later this week.

There's no way of predicting the number of storms in the Gulf based on the type of winter season, right? I remember snowfall in early 1973 and 1978, with little or no tropical activity in the Gulf later those years. We had snow also in December of 1983 and 1989, with little activity in 1984 or 1990. Of course, it snowed Christmas Eve in 2004, and 2005 was a bad year indeed. I remember a heavy snowfall in early February, 1988. Later that year, Florence hit near NO and Gilbert moved into the Gulf, but then weakened.

I don't know if there's any way to tell how our season will be based on the previous winter season but this shows the effect El Nino has. I'm with you though, judging by the last few years worth of storms i can remember it doesn't seem to matter what the conditions were. Before and after Rita was hot and dry. Complete opposite with Ike. I posted some of this last season so you may have read it already.

A Historical Study of Tropical Storms and
Hurricanes that have affected Southwest
Louisiana and Southeast Texas

David Mark Roth
National Weather Service
Lake Charles, LA
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/topics/attach/html/ssd98-16.htm