Spring Flood Outlook for SW AL, SE MS, NW FL

[baygirl_1]

Mobile had 16 inches above our normal winter rains! And now it looks like the nasty winter we had is going to have some repurcussions on our Spring:

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
ALC003-013-023-025-031-035-998-097-999-099-109-129-131-
FLC091-999-113-033-131-MSC153-059-039-081500-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
200 PM CST FRI MARCH 5 2010

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN
ALABAMA...AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

THE OUTLOOK FOR FLOODING OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE SPRING SEASON.

A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DUE TO A MODERATE EL NINO AND
CONSISTING OF THE FREQUENT PASSAGE OF COLD FRONTS LADEN WITH GULF
MOISTURE PRODUCED ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL OVER ALL OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA, SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WINTER MONTHS. AS A RESULT OF THIS...STREAM
FLOWS HAVE REMAINED ABOVE NORMAL AND SOILS CONTINUES TO BE SATURATED.

A NOTE OF INTEREST RELATED TO A PRELIMINARY 2009/2010 WINTER CLIMATE
SUMMARY FOR MOBILE AND PENSACOLA...MOBILE HAD THE WETTEST WINTER
EVER RECORDED. MOBILE RECORDED 31.91 INCHES OF RAIN...16.40 INCHES
ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WAS DUE TO THE WETTEST DECEMBER ON RECORD AND THE
6TH WETTEST JANUARY.

IN PENSACOLA...THIS WAS THE 2ND WETTEST WINTER RECORDED. PENSACOLA
RECORDED 25.85 INCHES OF RAIN...11.86 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

METEOROLOGICAL FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE THROUGH MARCH. HOWEVER WITH
CONTINUED EL NINO CONDITIONS INTO THE SPRING THE SOUTHERN STREAM
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER FOR THE PERIOD MARCH THROUGH MAY IS FOR NORMAL RAINFALL
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE PASCAGOULA BASIN IN SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE
PASCAGOULA BASIN. OBSERVED STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL. MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST ON THE CHICKASAWHAY RIVER AT
LEAKESVILLE MS. THE OBSERVED PERCENT OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE
GIVEN BELOW.

2/18 3/4
LEAF RIVER MCLAIN MS 187% 119%
CHICKASAWHAY RIVER LEAKESVILLE MS 137% 84%
PASCAGOULA RIVER MERRILL MS 139% 90%

BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS FROM THE
WINTER SEASON...CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...HISTORICAL RIVER
FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY AND EXPECTED NORMAL PRECIPITATION THIS
SPRING...THERE WILL BE AN ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING THIS
SPRING SEASON ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

IT IS EMPHASIZED THAT EVEN WITH NORMAL SPRINGTIME RAINS...RIVER
LEVELS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE RAPIDLY DUE TO EXISTING ABOVE
NORMAL STREAM FLOWS AND SATURATED SOILS. RIVERS IN THE AREA THAT ARE
SUBJECT TO RAPID RISES ARE: THE FISH RIVER...MURDER CREEK AT
BREWTON...THE PERDIDO RIVER...THE STYX RIVER...THE CONECUH RIVER AT
BREWTON...THE ESCAMBIA RIVER...THE BLACKWATER RIVER...THE BIG
COLDWATER CREEK...THE SHOAL RIVER...BIG ESCAMBIA CREEK...THE YELLOW
RIVER...AND THE BAYOU SARA.

THIS IS THE LAST RELEASE OF THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR
THE SPRING SEASON UNLESS CONDITIONS WARRANT ANOTHER RELEASE.

FOR MORE SPECIFIC HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA...VISIT OUR INTERNET WEB
SITES AT:
http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC
http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LMRFC
http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MOB

[srainhoutx]

Great point baygirl_1. Many have been concerned about this pattern and the "spring melt"...