SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[vbhoutex]

We have been having some hb thunderstorms with the passage of the ULL this afternoon. Reports of small hail in the Sugar Land area. Nothing approaching severe limits, but a little bit of a surprise.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm hearing winds are gusting to 50mph across southern LA this evening. Can any LA Residents confirm this???

[vbhoutex]

It is starting to act/look like Spring around here. Will it stay or will we have some more cold shots before it is over? will the buds be nipped before they flourish?

[jasons2k]

Snippet:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
519 AM CST TUE MAR 9 2010

IF ALL OF THESE ELEMENTS COME INTO
PHASE...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH SEVERE WEATHER COME WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TOO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC IN ZONES...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT
THIS POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT IN THIS MORNING`S HWO. ALAS...SPRING
HAS SPRUNG!

Hallelujah!

Looks like it finally is. Yesterday was the first time we saw the dryline setup over Texas. As the magic 8-ball would say..."Signs point to Yes"

[jasons2k]

It finally feels like Houston again

From NWS:http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HGX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH WAS 80 DEGREES TODAY AT IAH. THE LAST TIME HOUSTON
RECORDED 80 DEGREES WAS ON NOVEMBER 15TH 2009. WITH A HIGH OF 80 AND A
LOW OF 64...TODAYS AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE WAS 72 DEGREES. THIS
IS THE FIRST AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE THAT HAS BEEN ABOVE NORMAL
SINCE FEBRUARY 21ST (15 DAYS). THE AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE HAS
NOT BEEN THIS WARM SINCE OCTOBER 21ST 2009.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like the Mid March pattern change time frame is on track. The HPC Extended Prelim Disco continues to paint an interesting picture...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
743 AM EST WED MAR 10 2010

VALID 12Z SUN MAR 14 2010 - 12Z WED MAR 17 2010

...FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AND NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

TELECONNECTIONS WITH A STUBBORN POSITIVE ANOMALY ACROSS HUDSON BAY
CONTINUES TO FAVORS PROGRESSIVE CLOSED CYCLONES ABOUT 20 DEGREES
UNDER ITS BASE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S LATITUDE. THE MODELS AGREE
ON THIS SCENARIO WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH/OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEAST...BUT ARE SOUTH OF THIS IDEA WITH THE SECOND CLOSED
CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE
THE GFS HAS FINALLY JOINED THE CLUB CONCERNING THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM...TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS A
CYCLONE BYPASSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVING INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN BOTH CASES...THE 00Z
ECMWF/ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE SLOWER THAN THE 06Z GFS/ITS ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND STAND AT OPPOSITE ENDS OF THE OVERALL 00Z ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY...AND KEEP REASONABLE
DETAIL IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN...CHOSE TO COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z BIAS-CORRECTED NAEFS MEAN WITH SOME
ALTERATION TOWARDS OVERALL 00Z ENSEMBLE LOW CLUSTERING ACROSS THE
EAST/WESTERN ATLANTIC...GULF OF MEXICO...AND OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/WESTERN CANADA. THIS SOLUTION MAINTAINED REASONABLE
CONTINUITY.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA...
AFTER DRYING OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST...A LOW PRESSURE AREA BYPASSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
HEADS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA TOWARDS THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD...WITH MODERATE RAINS ANTICIPATED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
CAUSED BY MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE SUBTROPICAL
PACIFIC NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY...
THE TIME FRAME OF THE 15TH THROUGH THE 17TH LOOKS WET ACROSS TEXAS
AND FLORIDA AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROGRESSES EASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST. GULF
MOISTURE IS TAPPED BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM REACHES TEXAS AS STRONG
SOUTHEAST FLOW COUPLED WITH UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD YIELD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE LONE STAR STATE. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO FORM ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOOP CURRENT IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE IN THE
PERIOD WHICH IS BEST ADVERTISED BY THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...BRINGING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MID NEXT WEEK.

MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NEW ENGLAND...
THE TIME FRAME OF THE 13TH THROUGH THE 15TH CONTINUES TO LOOK WET
AS A LARGE AND DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC WAITING TO COUPLE WITH UPPER SUPPORT MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST...WHICH BRINGS HEAVY COMMA HEAD/WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS
FROM MARYLAND NORTHWARD. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH SNOW COVER
ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS NEW YORK/NEW
ENGLAND CONTINUES BRING THE SPECTER OF FLOODING TO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ROTH

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff:

A chance for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon over the area.

Discussion:

Dense sea fog continues to plague the coastal counties this morning with reduced visibilities of ¼ to ½ of a mile at nearly all reporting locations from SW LA to near Rockport. Dewpoints are running about 3-5 degrees warmers than bay/near shore SST’s allowing the dense fog to develop and spread about 20-40 miles inland of the coast where the fog lifts into a low stratus deck. Will see little improvement in this fog bank along the coast today and even into early Thursday before a front pushes through around midday Thursday and ends this event.

Next item on the plate is the chance for thunderstorms this afternoon. Water vapor images show an impressive short wave rapidly advancing toward the state this morning with a very strong 180kt jet stream rounding the south side of this feature. Surface low pressure is forming in response to this feature over the southern plains with a 30-40kt low level jet rapidly transporting shallow moisture northward along and mainly E of I-35. A very weak low level boundary remains in place over the coastal locations of SE TX from yesterday mainly along and S of HWY 35 while surface observations show a well defined dryline over the western edge of C TX along the western extent of the returning Gulf moisture. Feel most of SE TX will be able to break out of the low level deck by mid morning allowing an early March sun angle (about the same intensity as late September) to work on our moist air mass. Moisture over the region is fairly shallow with total PWS of only .6-.9, but increasing jet dynamics are impressive and may compensate for a lack of deep moisture. Forecast soundings show a weak shallow cap to be broken when temperatures exceed the mid to upper 60’s. Moderate instability with CAPES of 500-1200 J/kg by early afternoon will support a few strong updrafts. Meso scale models show a cluster of thunderstorms developing over central TX by mid to late morning and spreading into our region by early afternoon. Air mass by this time should be unstable enough to support a continued development and movement of this cluster into the region.

As far as the severe threat goes, SPC has extended the risk area westward to include much of SE TX as far SW as Matagorda Bay. Feel the coastal locations will not heat much under the dense sea fog bank and this will limit instability. Meso scale models show most of the activity aimed at our northern counties where best dynamics are progged…however we do still have that weak boundary near the coast that may lift northward and serve as a focus across our central counties. For now will keep the severe threat limited to N of I-10 where the best chances for sun and higher instability will work in phase with the good dynamics. A couple of severe hailers or damaging wind reports will be possible in this area. Southward the threat is much more conditional and highly based on the amount of heating that can take place prior to the best dynamics shifting eastward.

Extended:

Very nice spring weather Thursday-Sunday under a developing NW flow aloft. A decent cold front will push through on Thursday, but not before heating to near 80 under sunny skies. Much cooler Friday and Saturday with lows back into the 40’s and highs near 70. Moisture begins to come back Sunday ahead of the next developing storm system which looks to be a slow mover…but do not expect to see rain chances until next Monday.

Climate:

Houston reached 80 degrees yesterday the first time we have seen 80 since November 15, 2009…now that is impressive this far south and gives a testament to just how cold this winter has been. The area has just suffered through one of the coldest winter periods on record and the month of February averaged significantly below normal. Houston recorded its 5th coldest February on record (6.9 degrees below average), Hobby its 3rd (8.4 degrees below average) and College Station its 5th (7.8 degrees below average). Victoria tied for its 2nd coldest February on record! Houston only had 2 days of temperatures above average during the entire month. From the period of Dec 1-Feb 28th (meteorological winter) Houston suffered its 6th coldest winter ever and the coldest since 1977-1978, Galveston its 5th coldest winter ever, and College Station its 6th coldest winter ever. Additionally, at Corpus Christi, the number of days that were at or above 70 in February 2010 was only 4…last year there were 26 with the average being 12.

[jasons2k]

Storms firing now to the NW:

I am not surprised. I haven't been on the comp today since I am babysitting(asleep for a while), but I noticed when I took some trash out that it looked like things were starting to "heat up" and I'm not talking about just the temp. Guess I better check the radar while I have a chance. A sure sign we are moving into Spring.

[jasons2k]

Hmm, that cap must be getting to them. Most within range of here have fallen apart.

[southerngale]

70% chance of thunderstorms, some possibly severe - had a Special Weather Statement out this morning. It's rained quite a bit the past few days, but haven't seen anything today. I've been busy most of the day, but I don't see much on radar either. hmmm

[vbhoutex]

Hmm? Good question for the title of this thread. Currently 56f with rain here in Houston. Is that Spring weather? Possibility of lows in the 30's in a week or so. THAT IS NOT Spring!!
Everything is budding out and all the signs of Spring abound otherwise. Not gonna complain too loud though. We can use the rain to help things along.

[southerngale]

I don't think we're gonna reach our forecast high of 64° - haven't gotten out of the 50s today. Currently 54° with rain. 30s in a week or so, David? We've been reaching the 40s for lows lately but I figured the 30s were done. We just hauled off all the firewood that we put on the patio for easy access to far away in the back yard, behind a shed, where it will reside, covered, until next year.

[vbhoutex]

I don't think we're gonna reach our forecast high of 64° - haven't gotten out of the 50s today. Currently 54° with rain. 30s in a week or so, David? We've been reaching the 40s for lows lately but I figured the 30s were done. We just hauled off all the firewood that we put on the patio for easy access to far away in the back yard, behind a shed, where it will reside, covered, until next year.

Actually we are looking at 30's on Sunday morning if the last ocm forecast I saw was correct. I guess I could look at the models too.

Meanwhile I am watching a squirrel literally tear the bark off of one of my hibiscus plants that I was hoping might have survived the freezes. If it did I think the squirrel is going to finish it off if he doesn't stop.

[srainhoutx]

I don't think we're gonna reach our forecast high of 64° - haven't gotten out of the 50s today. Currently 54° with rain. 30s in a week or so, David? We've been reaching the 40s for lows lately but I figured the 30s were done. We just hauled off all the firewood that we put on the patio for easy access to far away in the back yard, behind a shed, where it will reside, covered, until next year.

Actually we are looking at 30's on Sunday morning if the last ocm forecast I saw was correct. I guess I could look at the models too.

Meanwhile I am watching a squirrel literally tear the bark off of one of my hibiscus plants that I was hoping might have survived the freezes. If it did I think the squirrel is going to finish it off if he doesn't stop.

I just saw them. After another $250.00+ natural gas bill, I've had just about enough of this winter! Meanwhile my Dade Palm still looks like toast.

[vbhoutex]

No Spring is not here!! The latest from Jeff Lindner.

Strong cold air outbreak headed for TX this weekend.

Potential for frost/freeze across portions of SE /SC TX Sunday and Monday mornings.

Upper level storm system responsible for the rains yesterday has pushed east of the area. Water vapor images show a strong vort over the Midwest dropping southward on the backside of this system however with very limited moisture only an increase in clouds can be expected late this afternoon as this system drops down the Sabine River.

Very nice weather in store for the region Thursday and Friday with lows in the 40’s and highs in the low to mid 70’s under mostly sunny skies and increasing southerly winds.

Next item of interest is a strong storm system/cold front combo on Saturday. Models continue to come in deeper and colder with this system with a good cold push out of NW Canada as a strong ridge develops along the US west coast with a deep downstream eastern US trough. Moisture return begins in earnest on Friday as pressures lower over the TX panhandle. Do not expect showers until sometime Saturday morning. Cold front plows southward Saturday reaching the area around midday and sweeping off the coast by late afternoon. While moisture return looks marginal there should be enough to squeeze out a round of showers and thunderstorms along the front. SPC has already highlighted our eastern counties for a risk of a few severe storms…but this looks highly marginal. A good temperature drop and increase in NW winds will make Saturday afternoon feel like we are back in deep winter again with temps. Falling through the 50’s into the upper 40’s under NW winds of 15-25 mph.

Bigger concern is how cold will it get as spring green up is well underway and sensitive plantings could be damaged by a frost/freeze. Current guidance suggest near freezing temperatures across the northern portion of SE TX then SW toward the northern coastal bend by Sunday morning as cold air advection brings near 0C 850mb temperatures southward. 540mb thickness values support some fairly chilly air for Sunday. Will go with a light freeze north of Hwy 105 Sunday morning and in the rural areas along and west of a line from Cypress to Katy to Richmond. Bigger concern for a more widespread freeze/frost will come Monday morning under clear skies and light winds. Models are showing weak return flow by early Monday morning and dewpoint recovery to above freezing however if this is delayed by a few hours several locations could bottom out in the 30-34 degree range especially along and NE of a line from Bay City to Wharton to Giddings.

[aerology]

I don't think we're gonna reach our forecast high of 64° - haven't gotten out of the 50s today. Currently 54° with rain. 30s in a week or so, David? We've been reaching the 40s for lows lately but I figured the 30s were done. We just hauled off all the firewood that we put on the patio for easy access to far away in the back yard, behind a shed, where it will reside, covered, until next year.

Actually we are looking at 30's on Sunday morning if the last ocm forecast I saw was correct. I guess I could look at the models too.

Meanwhile I am watching a squirrel literally tear the bark off of one of my hibiscus plants that I was hoping might have survived the freezes. If it did I think the squirrel is going to finish it off if he doesn't stop.

If you put out some sunflower seeds raw peanuts, and whole corn the squirrel will leave your plants alone, just sayin.

[vbhoutex]

Today's email from Jeff.

Potential for frost/light freeze on Sunday morning and Monday morning for portions of the area.

High pressure will begin to move eastward today allowing the development of onshore winds by tonight. Gulf of Mexico is highly worked over from the past storm system with little moisture to be found. SE winds will increase on Friday with dewpoints recovering into the 50’s by Friday evening. Potent upper level storm will drop through the Rockies and into late Friday into Saturday while cold air over NW Canada surges southward down the plains. Moisture return ahead of this feature will be fairly modest with only upper 50 degree dewpoints expected by early Saturday. ECMWF is slower and deeper with the trough and provides a much better shot at showers and thunderstorms. However will side toward the faster GFS with a dense cold air mass likely pushing southward faster than guidance would tend to show. Additionally, systems of late have had a tough time producing wetting rains over TX with poor quality moisture return off a rather cold Gulf of Mexico.

Dynamics will be impressive with this system and if better quality moisture can be drawn northern then a severe weather threat would be possible mainly along and east of I-45. Feel most areas will see some rainfall with this event given strong frontal forcing…with the greatest coverage E of I-45 and the least coverage toward Matagorda Bay. Very strong offshore flow develops behind the front with 40-50kts around 850mb for Saturday afternoon and temperatures dropping into the lower 50’s.Expect sustained 15-25mph winds at the surface making for a very blustery first day of spring.

Big question is how cold for Sunday and Monday mornings. Feel winds will stay up some overnight Saturday and this may help save some areas from a freeze. With that said lows of 32-35 will be possible from roughly Columbus to Conroe to Livingston Sunday morning. Past studies suggest the second night behind the front is usually the coldest and this seems likely with this event with clear skies, light winds, and surface ridge nearly overhead. Guidance continues to come in warmer for Monday morning, but I like a colder solution given the above reasoning. Will go with a light freeze and heavy frost (given small T/Td depressions) for areas along and N of a line from Victoria to Wharton to Sugar Land to Cypress to Kingwood to Liberty. Only a few hours of near or at freezing, but with the spring planting and green up season underway some significant damage is possible. It is still possible that the surface ridge will translate across the region during the overnight hours Sunday into Monday morning allowing weak onshore flow to develop and a slight enough increase in dewpoints to keep more of the SW and W counties a tad warmer…I think this is what the models are hinting at with their warmer lows for Monday.

[vbhoutex]

I don't think we're gonna reach our forecast high of 64° - haven't gotten out of the 50s today. Currently 54° with rain. 30s in a week or so, David? We've been reaching the 40s for lows lately but I figured the 30s were done. We just hauled off all the firewood that we put on the patio for easy access to far away in the back yard, behind a shed, where it will reside, covered, until next year.

Actually we are looking at 30's on Sunday morning if the last ocm forecast I saw was correct. I guess I could look at the models too.

Meanwhile I am watching a squirrel literally tear the bark off of one of my hibiscus plants that I was hoping might have survived the freezes. If it did I think the squirrel is going to finish it off if he doesn't stop.

If you put out some sunflower seeds raw peanuts, and whole corn the squirrel will leave your plants alone, just sayin.

Too late. They stripped one of my plants for their nests and are no longer bothering them. Nature provides for itself and I can replace them. I was probably going to have to anyway without without help from the squirrels.

[vbhoutex]

Not really weather related, but this seems like the best place to post it. Has anyone seen any bluebonnets flowered out yet in SC or SE TX. Just got a report of some near mile marker 701(westbound) on I-10. Would like to take our granddaughter out if there are some good areas. We did the same with our kids when they were young. Still have the pictures.

[vbhoutex]

OK!! Sunday is the first day of Spring and Larry Cosgrove is talking about the possibility of a sleet shower on Saturday night?? WHAT IS WRONG WITH THIS PICTURE?? http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston-Weather-Examiner~y2010m3d18-Weekend-Weather-Forecast-For-Houston-And-Vicinity-Friday-March-19-2010