ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[KWT]

The perfect El nino IMO thus far has to be 1957-1958...

1992 isn't a bad match BUT that took a good deal longer to weaken, it took till June to get to the stage this one is at right now, plus the Atlantic is miles warmer (though I know that isn't the be all of course!)

I tend to find if you can get below 0.8C by June then as long as it doesn't restrengthen and continues to steadily weaken then it probably won't be a huge issue...

Still as I said its enough to tamper with any thoughts of a hyper season thats for sure. IF the CFS is right though we will be neutral by July-August (like stone dead neutral, pretty much at 0) but who knows, I think it may linger a little more then that model suggests.

[cycloneye]

CFS model goes to Neutral by June.If you look at the mean blue line,is less warm bias neutral than past runs.

[KWT]

yeah thats pretty slap bang on neutral as well, not even warm neutral. I'd imagine with regards to shear in that case its just going to depend on exactly where the upper features set-up.

I think the CFS may not be far wrong...

[Derek Ortt]

that is the ensemble mean

about half of the ensembles still have el nino. What this ensemble is telling us is that there could be anything from a strong el nino to a strong la nina during the season.

Chances of remaining in a warmish phase are still about 50%

[cycloneye]

Another ENSO model that has turned to a cold Neutral zone is the POAMA (Australian) model.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/coupled_model/poama.shtml

[Derek Ortt]

again... that ensemble is NOT indicating cold neutral. It is saying 50/50 chance of slightly warm or slightly cold conditions.

One should not use an ensemble only for its mean... but use its PDF to understand the forecast uncertainty

[KWT]

Yes true Derek, its a range of solutions.

That being said I think in this case the mean probably won't be far from the truth...

I'd also say the raw number themselves aren't always going to be the be all and end all, for example the SOI is a way of seeing how the Atmosphere is behaving as are other teleconnections, and also exactly where the strongest, if any, of the warm anomalies set-up in the Pacific.

[cycloneye]

[srainhoutx]

Still not sure that El Nino will fade away as some data suggests. There are other hints that Nino will linger a bit longer than some have suspected. We shall see.

[cycloneye]

One factor that may signal El Nino fading is the SOI index that keeps rising affter that big crash of early Febuary.

[KWT]

Still not sure that El Nino will fade away as some data suggests. There are other hints that Nino will linger a bit longer than some have suspected. We shall see.

I did think that as well but now I'm not so sure, the El nino really hasn't strengthened despite what appears to be favourable conditions for that to occur, so if that doesn't happen then I'm not so sure what will happen.

[cycloneye]

March 11

El Nino is still fighting against the cooler waters.Which side will prevail at the end?



http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html

[xcool22]

sorry for lilite pic

[cycloneye]

The majority of the ensembles of the CFS model go below 0.5C by August but the ensemble mean goes to Neutral by early June.

[cycloneye]

These are the latest ECMWF ensembles that forecast La Nina by June.But I dont think is realistic to expect La Nina this soon.

ECMWF Ensemble ENSO Models

[wxman57]

These are the latest ECMWF ensembles that forecast La Nina by June.But I dont think its realistic to expect La Nina this soon.

ECMWF Ensemble ENSO Models

That's the forecast from February 1st, cycloneye. The new forecast comes out around the 22nd of March. I think it's fairly certain we'll be in transition to "neutral" by the start of the season. All signs are pointing to a season the exact opposite of last year.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 3/15/10 weekly update

El Nino 3.4 rose to +1.2C from +1.1C last week,not a big jump upwards,but it shows that for now,El Nino is still not fading.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Last Week Numbers

Niño 4= +1.1ºC
Niño 3.4= +1.1ºC
Niño 3= +0.7ºC
Niño1+2= +0.1ºC


This Week Numbers

Niño 4= +1.2ºC
Niño 3.4= +1.2ºC
Niño 3= +0.5ºC
Niño1+2= -0.3ºC

[Derek Ortt]

3.4 and 4 are the ones to watch the closest

they are not cooling, though 1/2 are

[KWT]

Not yet but to be honest Derek all but the ECM plumes were showing either the El Nino holding steady or even strengthening somewhat in March, so what we are seeing now is really what we expected.

April and May hold the keys thats for sure...BTW the updated ECM forecasts are out there wxman57, I've just seen them and they are if anything even more agressive with developing a La Nina then the last set, not quite sure why though as I'm not really seeing it!

[cycloneye]

If this El Nino becomes Modoki,what happens then about the Atlantic effects?

http://poama.bom.gov.au/experimental/po ... ex_rt.html