Florida Weather

[Patrick99]

Feels quite warm today. Strong southeast flow now.

Miami NWS mentioning 70% chance of rain tomorrow night into Friday, possibly heavy rain, chance of severe. Would love to see that!

[feederband]

Time to start digging up all the dead plants...All the plants that survived last year died this year...I'm completly changing my views of the type of plants Im going to replace them with...Cold Hardy only nothing tropical...

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
406 PM EST WED MAR 10 2010


...WET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THURS-FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW COMPONENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WILL ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND HELP KEEP
TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MINS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS AND EVEN SOME UPPER 60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INDICATED CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS N/C SECTIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURS...PATTERN BECOMING A LITTLE MESSY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
APPROACHING DISTURBANCES ALOFT. SHORTWAVE/STRONG JET ALOFT WILL
INCREASE U/L DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT
OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO YIELD A HIGH COVERAGE OF POPS. HIGH
TEMPS CLIMBING TOWARD UPPER 70S/NR 80 INLAND WILL AID INSTABILITY
AND MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
WITH THE SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. HAVE
LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS WITH VALUES A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE NORTH.

THU NIGHT/FRI/FRI NIGHT...HEAVY RAIN EVENT SHAPING UP FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. A BROAD SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO AN ORGANIZED LOW AS A +180KT H25 ZONAL JET OVER NRN
MEX/SRN TX PUSHES ACROSS THE GOMEX/DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A MID
LVL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL LIFT INTO THE NW CARIB.
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROF WILL GENERATE A STRONG SW
FLOW ACROSS THE GOMEX THAT WILL PULL HIGH PWAT AIR ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN PLAINS.

THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM HAS ALREADY CUTOFF FROM THE PRIMARY
STEERING FLOW OVER THE CONUS. TYPICALLY...CUTOFF SYSTEMS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY SLOW MOVING AND IT APPEARS THIS ONE WILL BE NO
DIFFERENT. WITH LITTLE TO NO STEERING FLOW AND A WEAK BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS...THE SYSTEM WILL GENERATE A PERSISTENT
SWRLY FLOW THAT WILL TAP THE HIGH MOISTURE OVER THE GOMEX AND PULL
IT ACRS FL THROUGH FRI NIGHT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF MODELS ALL INDICATE AN
EXTENDED RAIN EVENT FOR CENTRAL FL WITH HIGH QPF VALUES THRU 12Z SAT.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE H25 JET PUSHING INTO THE REGION...ITS HARD
TO ARGUE WITH THE OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY WITH AN AIRMASS SATURATED FROM
SFC TO CIG. HPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST AREAS IN THE CWA WILL SEE A
MINIMUM 2" OF RAIN WITH 4-6" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SVR WX POTENTIAL
WILL BE ELEVATED AS WELL AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES AOA 350 OVER MOST OF THE
CWA...AND AS HIGH AS 550 OVER THE ORLANDO METROPLEX BY DAYBREAK
FRI. DEEP/THICK CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT TOTAL CAPE POTENTIAL AND
SHOULD PREVENT LARGE OUTBREAK OF SVR WX. NEVERTHELESS...THE HIGH
LVLS OF ATMOSPHERIC TORQUE CANNOT BE IGNORED.

[Patrick99]

Come Friday, NWS expects PWATs 2 standard deviations above the norm at 2-2.25......possible training of storms with potential totals of 2.5-5"

[Patrick99]

Bumped it up to 80 and 90% today and tomorrow, yet there's *nothing* currently on the radar.....I smell another bust.....lol there will probably be a brief squall line that drops all of 0.15 inches, as usual.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Yep. Usually 80-90% is a bust. It pours at 40-50%. We'll have to wait and see what turns up. El Nino still has a grip on our weather. Hopefully through the summer.

[artist]

looks like some pretty severe weather is shaping up for Florida today. radar of Gainseville down to just north of Orlando coast to coast is rather menacing.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... &map.y=144
Winds gusting over Tropical Storm Force Along Tampa Bay
S30 G43 mph

Sustained Tropical Storm Force Winds in the Mouth of Tampa Bay
Bouy in the Mouth of Tampa Bay:
S 39 G 46 mph
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MCCUF1

[artist]

TORNADO WARNING
FLC009-117-127-112015-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0017.100311T1938Z-100311T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
238 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SCOTTSMOOR...PLAYALINDA BEACH...
MIMS...HAULOVER CANAL...
EAST CENTRAL SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MAYTOWN...

* UNTIL 315 PM EST.

* AT 233 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MAYTOWN...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
KLONDIKE BEACH AND MERRITT ISLAND WILDLIFE REFUGE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO
SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. ABANDON YOUR VEHICLE IF THE
TORNADO IS NEARBY.

&&

LAT...LON 2860 8061 2858 8064 2862 8079 2869 8079
2871 8075 2879 8084 2862 8081 2868 8109
2886 8106 2884 8082 2874 8075 2866 8067
2867 8066 2873 8070 2875 8073 2883 8076
2883 8075 2858 8057
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 280DEG 26KT 2875 8097

[artist]

000
WUUS52 KMLB 111942
SVRMLB
FLC097-112045-
/O.NEW.KMLB.SV.W.0015.100311T1942Z-100311T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
242 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
OSCEOLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 345 PM EST.

* AT 240 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORMS WERE MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF OSCEOLA COUNTY.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED
TO...POINCIANA...INTERCESSION CITY...CAMPBELL...WEST LAKE
TOHO...LAKE MARIAN...SAINT CLOUD...EAST LAKE TOHO...
KENANSVILLE...NARCOOSSEE...HARMONY AND HOLOPAW

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST THURSDAY EVENING
FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

&&

LAT...LON 2834 8089 2772 8087 2764 8105 2764 8114
2782 8122 2787 8131 2799 8139 2800 8141
2804 8146 2806 8145 2802 8138 2807 8135
2808 8145 2813 8146 2814 8152 2819 8152
2825 8156 2826 8166 2828 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 240DEG 35KT 2793 8139

$$

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

High Winds (I estimate gusts of 45 mph) ripped the screen out behind the large
window I am sitting at and blew it across the yard

[meteorologyman]

Wind is calm for the time being, though I see a small cell headed my way. I live in northen Osceola County. It's raining hard now.

[Patrick99]

SPECTACULAR forecast bust for S. FL. Not a drop of rain.

[HURAKAN]

I already canceled baseball practice because IT'S SUPPOSED TO RAIN TONIGHT

[gatorcane]

SPECTACULAR forecast bust for S. FL. Not a drop of rain.

Not quite. It all starts later on this evening, with possible TRAINING:

Hydrologic Outlook
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
FLC011-021-043-051-086-087-099-121100-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
343 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010

...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING WITH URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SO TOO WILL THE RAIN CHANCES...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MOISTURE WILL BE AT ITS HIGHEST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING...SOME
200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LIFT...LEADING TO A GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO URBAN FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
EVENING.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ARE FORECAST TO
AVERAGE 2 TO 4 INCHES AT MOST LOCALES. HOWEVER...STEERING WINDS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS COULD LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS
TRAINING...OR MOVING OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SHOULD
THIS OCCUR...MUCH HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY
IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL OF URBAN FLOODING.

IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE LATER MODELS...THEN A FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY.

STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI ON THIS DEVELOPING HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

$$

BAXTER

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... ic+Outlook

[Patrick99]

I just saw a brief shower. Woohoo! I hope the forecast does come to pass.

[meteorologyman]

Early in the evening (around 7pm) was quite impressive. It kept coming down in buckets. Our yard had standing water and the street was flooded. Yay... i get to cart push in this yucky weather early in the morning at 7am .

[meteorologyman]

On another note. Seasonal Outlook is calling for above average rain for next several months in FL.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... php?lead=1

[psyclone]

wow that is a tenacious heavy rainband from ft myers to palm beach. someone is probably gonna exceed 6 inches. it looks like the southward propagating outflow from central florida's earlier convection has run out of gas and is no longer making progress south. that's a classic florida training heavy rain event in progress. meanwhile more heavy rain and thunderstorms are forming in the gulf southwest of sarasota so that area may be in play soon as well. very interesting weather for a change.

[artist]

well, we have had enough already. Large pond is almost full, when it was extremely low yesterday before this event started. Standing water around the house in areas even though it is built up, and water coming into one room. This is a house only 9 years old. The dranage ditches are full and running over. This reminds me of the rain with Frances, or was it Jeanne? If it keeps up, it could definitely catch up to that rain event quickly. Stop already.