Joe Bastardi: 16-18 named storms, top 10 year

[Ptarmigan]

More active than JB's forecast? or just more active than last year?

More active than last year.

[WhiteShirt]

I have a feeling this season will be more active.

I agree.

[SETXWXLADY]

Link to Joe:
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... 2010-1.asp

1964, 1995, 1998, and 2005, per Joe! Bold prediction and not good for SFL!

Yuck! Not good for Texas either! We got hit up and down the coast those years.

[MGC]

All those analog years (64, 95, 98 and 05) featured big hurricane hits for the NGOM coast.....MGC

[KWT]

Still need to watch for that El Nino, still showing no real signs of any decay and early Spring tends to be a time when the models struggle, if we still see the El nino hold during April then things start to change possibly towards a less active season then is currently possible, but a long way to go yet...

[micktooth]

Link to Joe:
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... 2010-1.asp

1964, 1995, 1998, and 2005, per Joe! Bold prediction and not good for SFL!

Yikes, looks like it might be active. Does Joe indeed foresee a year like 2005? I didn't see it mentioned in the article. 2005 is the reason I'm now living in Denver and not New Orleans!

[vacanechaser]

Doesn't "weakening trade winds" imply a weak Bermuda High? I guess Joe thinks many potential landfalls in the GOM rather than the EC because a weak Bermuda High would allow for more recurves?

That is true, the weaker Bermuda High is why the trade wind speeds are currently low. Weaker low-level shear, more moisture, and a very warm ocean between Africa and the Caribbean should lead to a much more active Cape Verde year. And the farther east a storm develops (with a weaker high to the north), the more likely it will recurve either east of the Caribbean or east of the U.S.

However, the low pressures and very favorable (potentially) conditions also may extend into the NW Caribbean. Any development there would very likely threaten the U.S. So maybe half the storms will track safely out to sea. The other half - watch out!

hey guys, just getting back in here after some time off.. lets not forget the azores high either... that i think would play more into the trades being weaker.... if you look at the sea surface temps right now, the water is much warmer than normal further east... that to me seems to be a weaker azores... also the bermuda like wxman57 said... it would be a combination of the 2...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[jinftl]

Mainstream news media picking up on JB/Accuweather predictions for upcoming season.

From MSNBC:

'Extreme' 2010 hurricane season possible
2-3 major landfalls along U.S. coast predicted by private forecaster

Five hurricanes, two or three of them major, are expected to strike the U.S. coast in what could be an above-average 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, private forecaster AccuWeather.com said Wednesday. "The forecast is calling for a much more active 2010 season with above-normal threats on the U.S. coastline,'' AccuWeather.com said in a statement.

The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center team forecast the season starting June 1 would see 16 to 18 tropical storms forming in total, 15 of which would be in the western Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico and therefore a threat to land.
"This year has the chance to be an extreme season,'' said team leader Joe Bastardi. "It is certainly much more like 2008 than 2009 as far as the overall threat to the United States' East and Gulf coasts,'' he added. Bastardi predicted seven storms would hit land, five of them hurricanes and two or three of them "major landfalls.''

There were nine tropical storms in the Atlantic basin in 2009, three of which strengthened into hurricanes in what AccuWeather called "a year far below the average.'' In a typical season, there are 11 tropical storms, of which two or three affect the U.S. coast.

Among the factors contributing to the forecast above-average 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, Bastardi listed: a rapidly weakening El Nino weather phenomenon; warmer temperatures in the ocean region where storms typically form; weakening trade winds; and higher humidity levels.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35796810/

[KWT]

Surpising more of the mass media haven't picked up on the forecast of a very active season, esp since they seem to enjoy ramping up hurricane season.

[cycloneye]

KWT,I suspect that the CSU April 7th forecast will get plenty of media attention.

[gatorcane]

Surpising more of the mass media haven't picked up on the forecast of a very active season, esp since they seem to enjoy ramping up hurricane season.

I think that it's a bit early for the media to jump on. As we get closer to the season towards the end of May I expect them to jump.

[wxman57]

KWT,I suspect that the CSU April 7th forecast will get plenty of media attention.

I did get a chance to talk to Phil Klotzbach last Thursday at the NHC. He certainly has seen what the European model is forecasting as far as Atlantic Basin pressures for July-September. I think the term "holy cow" came up. His December prediction was from 11-16 named storms. He's getting more confident that the number will be closer to the upper end of that range. He didn't disagree that there could be even greater than 16 named storms. In any case, looks like a quite active season in store for 2010.

[drezee]

KWT,I suspect that the CSU April 7th forecast will get plenty of media attention.

I did get a chance to talk to Phil Klotzbach last Thursday at the NHC. He certainly has seen what the European model is forecasting as far as Atlantic Basin pressures for July-September. I think the term "holy cow" came up. His December prediction was from 11-16 named storms. He's getting more confident that the number will be closer to the upper end of that range. He didn't disagree that there could be even greater than 16 named storms. In any case, looks like a quite active season in store for 2010.

Thanks for the inside info 57...Have you seen the March Anomalies??? 7 points measure as the warmest ever..

[Texas Snowman]

Link to Joe:
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... 2010-1.asp

1964, 1995, 1998, and 2005, per Joe! Bold prediction and not good for SFL!

Yikes, looks like it might be active. Does Joe indeed foresee a year like 2005? I didn't see it mentioned in the article. 2005 is the reason I'm now living in Denver and not New Orleans!

I didn't see 2005 mentioned either. Already a bold enough prediction, but to even add a reference to 2005 into the mix, as was mentioned elsewhere in this thread, "HOLY COW!!!!"

[OuterBanker]

One other omen. This years list is 2004's name list. Four names were retired that year Charlie, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne.

[KWT]

I didn't see 2005 mentioned either. Already a bold enough prediction, but to even add a reference to 2005 into the mix, as was mentioned elsewhere in this thread, "HOLY COW!!!!"

Joe mentioned it several times recently, esp with regards to the Atlantic SST profile and the pressure forecasts. This season is looking pretty amazing for the background pattersn, all those years Joe B mentioned were full of big storms for the Caribbean/US/CA.

[OuterBanker]

One other omen. This years list is 2004's name list. Four names were retired that year Charlie, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne.

[cheezyWXguy]

One other omen. This years list is 2004's name list. Four names were retired that year Charlie, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne.

double post?

[cycloneye]

JB released new video on April 8th

Here is the very latest fromn Bastardi.Almost the same as what CSU has.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... 2010-1.asp

[KWT]

Its worth pointing out thats his forecast west of 55W, thereofre its quite possible that there are more systems that recurve before 55W, but the 15 storms are the ones that could end up making some sort of landfall because they are far enough west.

All I'll say is things are looking very interesting for the hurricane season!