SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI (13F/20P)

[DazzaMc]

Hi everyone, Only just discovered this very informative weather forum.I live in SEQ Australia and have this monster of a cyclone threatening us . Does anyone here think that this cyclone will make it to landfall on our shores.

At this point - no.
But keep watching (we all are!) - these things have a habit of unpredictability.


And WELCOME!!!

[Sheronz]

This system is expected to gradual weakening after March, 15.

[DazzaMc]

That 869.2hPa has to be rubbish.


Bed time.

[Sheronz]

[img][/img]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 14/0913 UTC 2010 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI CENTRE 930 HPA CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 12.8S 161.1E AT 140600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS
VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING WEST 7 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 115 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE IN
THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

TOPS HAE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN A LIGHTLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. UPPER OUTFLOW GOOD IN ALL SECTORS. SST AROUND
30C. CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WEST BY AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON OW EYE AND B SURROUND,
YIELDING DT 6.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS
T6.0/6.5/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A WESTERLY TRACK.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC 13.0S 159.6E MOV W AT 07 KT WITH 110KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC 13.2S 158.0E MOV W AT 08 KT WITH 95KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC 13.4S 156.6E MOV W AT 07 KT WITH 85KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 13.6S 155.6E MOV SW AT 05 KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
ULUI WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 141500 UTC.

[senorpepr]

123
TPPS10 PGTW 141219

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI)

B. 14/1130Z

C. 12.8S

D. 160.5E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/7.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. 10NM OW EYE SURROUNDED BY BLK
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED .5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A 6.0.
PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
14/0640Z 12.7S 161.2E AMSU
14/0832Z 12.8S 160.9E SSMI


UEHARA

[Squarethecircle]

[senorpepr]

Doesn't quite look as sharp as it did earlier. Still has a defined eye, though.


048
WWPS22 ABRF 141337
IDQ20016
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre


SOLOMON ISLANDS ADVISORY
Issued at 1336 UTC on 14/03/10
Special Advisory Number 15

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului Category 5 at 141200 UTC
Located at
Latitude: 12.7S
Longitude: 160.4E

Moving: W at 7 knots

Central Pressure: 930 hPa

Mean maximum winds to 115 knots with maximum gusts to 155 knots.

The system is remaining steady.

Expect gales out to 120 miles from the centre in the Eastern semi-circle and 150
miles from the centre elsewhere.

Expect storm force winds out to 60 miles from the centre.

Expect hurricane force winds out to 40 miles from the centre.

Gale to storm force winds will continue about Rennell Island and Bellona Islands
tonight and ease during Monday.

Gales may occur about San Cristobal and Guadalcanal islands but should ease by
morning.

Forecast position at 0000 UTC
Latitude: 12.8S
Longitude: 159.0E

The next Special Advisory will be issued at: 1630 UTC 14 March 2010

Please acknowledge receipt of this bulletin


ADT is down slighty, but still nothing to sneeze at...


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 MAR 2010 Time : 123000 UTC
Lat : 13:02:47 S Lon : 160:23:26 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 914.2mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 5.9 4.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.4mb

Center Temp : -69.3C Cloud Region Temp : -77.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Ad Novoxium]

In fact - isn't 869 hPa leaving Zoe in the dust?

I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that the SPac has a sort of "conversion" when measuring MSLP in cyclones. I remember the issue with Monica in 06, which had a similar pressure reading (as opposed to Hurricane Ioke, which showed the GFDL (or whichever it was) going mad. It likely isn't official.

And never mind Zoe: 869 would break Typhoon Tip's WORLD record.

[Ptarmigan]

Quite an impressive storm. South Pacific produces some really strong tropical cyclones like Zoe. Wish we could actually measure them, not just by satellites, but actually being there. I would imagine some of these tropical cyclones could shatter Tip since 1979.

[senorpepr]

Quite an impressive storm. South Pacific produces some really strong tropical cyclones like Zoe. Wish we could actually measure them, not just by satellites, but actually being there. I would imagine some of these tropical cyclones could shatter Tip since 1979.

I fully agree... I'd love to see the furthered exploration of UAVs in tropical cyclones. They may not be able to complete the fix missions that manned flights (i.e. WC-130J) can, but I'd like to see some capability to get measurements and possible (guided?) eye dropsondes from these UAVs.

It was great to see the UAVs (...and even the manned missions) in the WPAC and far E Atlantic over the past few years.

[Squarethecircle]

The eye is beginning to reappear.


Microwave still relatively unimpressive.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Tom8]

Hello

some pictures



movie
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... mjava.html

[DazzaMc]

Ului is awake again - I spy an nicely defined eye-wall in the latest imagery again...

[Derek Ortt]

dont think it went through an EWRC

it looks to have been blasted by easterly shear

[CrazyC83]

I doubt it was anywhere near 869mb. Probably the lowest was around 915mb.

Right now, due to the shear and possible ERC, I would estimate the intensity at 105 kt.

[Squarethecircle]

Vis looks impressive. The eye is still clearing.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0012 UTC 15/03/2010
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 12.9S
Longitude: 159.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [254 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 95 knots [175 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 135 knots [250 km/h]
Central Pressure: 940 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 55 nm [100 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 55 nm [100 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 55 nm [100 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 55 nm [100 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.5/W0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 130 nm [240 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 15/1200: 13.2S 158.9E: 050 [095]: 105 [195]: 930
+24: 16/0000: 13.5S 158.2E: 080 [150]: 120 [220]: 917
+36: 16/1200: 13.6S 158.1E: 110 [210]: 125 [230]: 920
+48: 17/0000: 14.0S 158.2E: 145 [270]: 125 [230]: 920
+60: 17/1200: 14.8S 159.0E: 190 [355]: 125 [230]: 920
+72: 18/0000: 15.7S 159.6E: 240 [445]: 125 [230]: 912
REMARKS:
Analysis based on embedded centre with light grey surround and dark grey centre.


DT is 5.0, MET is 5.0 also, Final T 5.0. CI held at 5.5

System has weakened slightly over the last 12 to 18 hours as northern outflow
channel has weakened. Outflow to south remains very strong.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/0700 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

[Squarethecircle]

Microwave is looking much improved from earlier.