Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Thanks for posting that comparison. I have a friend working down in the Leewards and he's been complaining how hot it's been. Here's a little blurb on Brazil and the ITCZ March-May that is interesting.

Science Briefs
Seasonal Climate Prediction over Northeast Brazil

By Leonard Druyan, Matthew Fulakeza, and Patrick Lonergan — May 2001

Northeast Brazil experiences a rainy season that centers on the months of March through May. This seasonality can be explained by the southward migration across the Equator of an east-west band of tropical rainfall, called the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).During March and April the ITCZ reaches its southernmost latitude in response to the seasonal warming of the adjacent Atlantic Ocean. Heating of the lower atmosphere by the warmest ocean water initiates rising air currents that promote the formation of tall tropical clouds and heavy downpours. Accordingly, the southward movement of the ITCZ, and in turn the timing and intensity of precipitation over northeast Brazil during any given year, are profoundly affected by departures of Atlantic Ocean temperatures from their usual seasonal changes.

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/druyan_05/

[KWT]

Thats very impressive Cainer, you can really see just how much warmer a good chunk of the basin is compared with 2009!

[drezee]

I know that JB has talked about the early onset of the Monsoon as being positive indicator for activity.

2009


2010

[drezee]

I have found the Holy Grail of yearly comparisons for year to year!!!!!!!!!!!! I am even more impressed! I have looked at every comparison and it is ahead of everything. The closest analog from an Atlantic only standpoint is 1998 (green is 1C higher than 1998).

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/SST/sst_atl.html

1998 (tail end of huge El nino)


Difference between 2005 and today (7-day average)
Between 15N and 25N 2010 is miles ahead!


Difference between 1995 and today (7-day average)
East of islands...no comparaison...

[Frank2]

Water temps are very cool for South Florida (mid-upper 60's ATTM, and much lower on the Gulf side), so it'll take many weeks of very warm weather to get it warm enough to support a tropical system...

It's likely that AW is over the top on their busy prediction for the upcoming season, considering everything - even if El Nino dissipates by the summer...

Frank

[cycloneye]

Yikes!!

[NDG]

Current SST along coastal waters of FL has nothing to do with an indication if the season will be busy or not, once early summer gets here it does not take much for shallow coastal waters to warm up very quickly.
With ENSO being forecasted to at least go neutral by the heart of the hurricane season and if the NAO continue to be more negative than positive through early summer thus for warmer SST to continue at the Atlantic's MDR, then a very busy hurricane season as predicted by AW could very well be the case this year.

[KWT]

Water temps are very cool for South Florida (mid-upper 60's ATTM, and much lower on the Gulf side), so it'll take many weeks of very warm weather to get it warm enough to support a tropical system...

It's likely that AW is over the top on their busy prediction for the upcoming season, considering everything - even if El Nino dissipates by the summer...

Frank

Frank, take a look at the whole basin, its just about the warmest ever for the time of year, in fact its as warm now as it is during most Mays/Junes and we are just half way thorugh March.

Yes the gulf is fairly cold after a cold winter BUT you get the right set-up lasting for any decent length of time and those above normal temps elsewhere in the Caribbean will soon filter up, afterall the gulf is shallow and thus you can get big changes rather quickly, certainly enough time for it to get warmer then average.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Here is the March 15, 2010 MPHI (Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity) with explanatory link:

[img][/img]


http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html

[jinftl]

A solid month of highs in the upper 80s and 90s with overnight lows in the 70s to near 80 on the coast will take care of any current sst anomalies. All the years I have lived here...no matter what the prior winter was like...i have been able to take a dip in 84+ water at my local beaches by June, July the latest.

The Gulf cools down fast because it is shallower overall....but guess what, that means it will warm up very quickly once late sping and early summer arrive. It is a given the Gulf will be bath water by August.

Water temps are very cool for South Florida (mid-upper 60's ATTM, and much lower on the Gulf side), so it'll take many weeks of very warm weather to get it warm enough to support a tropical system...

It's likely that AW is over the top on their busy prediction for the upcoming season, considering everything - even if El Nino dissipates by the summer...

Frank

[srainhoutx]

Just remember it takes more than SST's to "bake a cake" so to speak.

[MGC]

Though the GOM is well below average in mid March, by the time June arrives it will be its usual bath like SST, more than enough to support a TC. August and September will bring the usual mid 80 sst. Worry not, the GOM will be cooking by summer. As the Nino fades the trade winds should pick up again over the far eastern Atlantic allowing upwelling to resume.....I expect this SSTA to normalize at time progresses. However, it should remain above normal to support a early start to the CV season. Maybe another Bertha like hurricane in July is a possibility. Basin wide by the heart of the season SST will be at their usual warmth. All we have to concern ourselfs with is SAL and wind shear....MGC

[KWT]

Yeah MGC it'd be hard to sustain these levels of SSTA's for any long period, even 2005 couldn't hold these temps for that long once the season kicked in.

Still if March comes in around 1C above normal (which is looking quite possible) it'll be a long way down to get even close to normal.

[NDG]

I don't think that El Nino has anything to do with how above average the SSTs are in the Atlantic's MDR, it has more to do with a long lasting negative NAO & AO, the Azore's High being displaced further south and weaker than normal, thus weaker trade winds. ENSO could go neutral or cold phase and if the NAO continues to be more negative than normal we could still have a warmer than average MDR SSTs.
Another thing on the GOM, for the most part once we get to late spring and early summer a surface high center finds a home there, thus for calmer winds letting for the sun to work its magic of warming it up.
How many times have we seen the GOM be boiling by now and not equate to anything later in the hurricane season.

[wxman57]

Consider this about El Nino - if the El Nino could be responsible for the long-lasting negative NAO, then it certainly could be considered the cause of the above-normal Atlantic SSTs in the MDR. A negative NAO leads to a weaker and farther east Bermuda High. This means decreased easterly trades and thus less upwelling of cool water in the MDR. So a persistent negative NAO leads to warmer SSTs in the MDR. And if the El Nino is the cause of the persistent negative NAO, then it's the cause of the warmer SSTs.

[JonathanBelles]

And if the El Nino is the cause of the persistent negative NAO, then it's the cause of the warmer SSTs.

So, if El Nino trends towards neutral, could the MDR 'cool' or stabalize temperaturewise?

[KWT]

Consider this about El Nino - if the El Nino could be responsible for the long-lasting negative NAO, then it certainly could be considered the cause of the above-normal Atlantic SSTs in the MDR. A negative NAO leads to a weaker and farther east Bermuda High. This means decreased easterly trades and thus less upwelling of cool water in the MDR. So a persistent negative NAO leads to warmer SSTs in the MDR. And if the El Nino is the cause of the persistent negative NAO, then it's the cause of the warmer SSTs.

Very true though the super -ve AO *cannot* just be blamed on the El Nino...as per everything in weather there are many factors. The -ve NAO is only a response to the massive record breaking -ve AO and to get something that negative, its not the El Nino's fault, even if it did play a moderate role. For example the QBO was favorable for warming in the upper atmosphere, which in turn caused the -ve AO, which in turn forced the NAO negative and helped obviously cause the rise in the SSTS.

As for what will happen in the future...the SSTA will reduce...it has to...because to even get two months above 1C would be pretty much record breaking and Feb 10 was 2nd highest anomaly ever behind March 69...which ironcally had exactly the same evolution of the AO/NAO in the second half of the winter!

So thre will be cooling, no matter what happens, because the pattern we had this winter was EXCEPTIONAL with regards to being condusive for warming, even a slight/moderate change in the pattern will cause cooling.

[drezee]

Ladies and gents,
We have 26C SSTs at 15N and 35W on March 15th. I can't tell you how senseless this is. I will try to put it into perspective. This is like mid September Snow in Alabama!

[drezee]

Shear has been consistently below climo as well...

Atlantic Shear


Caribbean Shear

[tolakram]

Hi drezee, where can I find those images and the shear tracking vs climatology?