Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

[drezee]

Atlantic Shear
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... tatshr.png

Caribbean Shear
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... carshr.png

[xcool22]

[wxman57]

And if the El Nino is the cause of the persistent negative NAO, then it's the cause of the warmer SSTs.

So, if El Nino trends towards neutral, could the MDR 'cool' or stabalize temperaturewise?

Only if El Nino was the sole cause of the -NAO.

[cycloneye]

Speaking about the NAO,it will remain negative for a while.

[drezee]

Quick update on 41041:

SST is 26.9

previous earliest to 26.9 2006 on May 12...Two months ahead of schedule...Man, I wish I had 2005 data!!!!!!!!!

BTW, on average of the last 4 years the SSTs rise 3.56C from this point. That means a peak 7-day average of 30.4C over the open ocean! Highest temp ever recored at the buoy was 30.3 on very light winds in '08 (7 day averave was 29.5).

[meteorologyman]

Just remember it takes more than SST's to "bake a cake" so to speak.

This gives me an idea. Maybe we should have a forum on "What makes/hinders a Hurricane"
such as temp for SST's and the depth, Shear levels, Moisture, how SOI, and NOA effect Hurricanes, locations off ITCZ, Dust off Africa La Nina and El-Nino etc.

(note): if we do have forum on this it won't have current data like this topic, it just for definitions and recipe for the storm with extra toppings

[drezee]

If hurricanes are the way that the environment transfers warm air to the cooler regions, then please see the temp gradient between 20N and 30N. 2005,1998, and 2010 all have this in common...
2010


2005


2009 did not have it


1998

[drezee]

Another Analog year of 1964 has the same pattern:

1964


2005


1998


This is cool!

[drezee]

excellent paper on SST yearly changes:

http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~carton/pdfs/carton&zhou97.pdf

[gatorcane]

It's quite apparent from these images that over the past 3 months, waters in the Central Pacific are cooling relative to normal (el nino weakening), and waters in the Central and Far Eastern Atlantic are warming more relative to normal.

Jan 18th 2010:


Feb. 18th, 2010:


March 18th 2010:

[KWT]

March TNA at the moment looks just a little cooler then it was in Feb with regards to the SSTAs, though its still going to up there with some of the warmest ever thats for sure!

Also that El nino does seem to be getting steadily eroded even if the core remains.

[Hurricaneman]

I think that if el nino weakens to even a .3 neutral and the gradient at 30 north with the atlantic ssta's stays in place I personally think that there's going to be a parade of cape verde storms and maybe several major US landfalls, but I think it all depends on ENSO

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[cycloneye]

The MDR is boiling.

[Scorpion]

Wow thats just insane! Also look at the TCHP in the Caribbean

[BigA]

Wow! I know that heat potential isn't the be all and end all of tropical cyclone formation, but this map is solidly ahead of even 2005 at this time of year.

[SouthFloridawx]

[cycloneye]

[Aric Dunn]

The MDR is boiling.

I cant recall anytime from my memory that the cape verde islands stayed at 26 C nearly all winter !! the eastern atlantic is as everyone has stated clearly above average.. slight understatement of course..

It is one of the question i will be asking at the National Hurricane Conference and FL governs conference..

[KWT]

The worrying thing is typically when you have very warm SST's in the E.atlantic there is a weak correlation between that and a very warm W.Atlantic in the summer. This suggests there is a threat that those anomalies will shift westwards with time. I think that occured in 2005 as well...

[Blown Away]

During a strong El Nino event don't we usually see warm SST's in the MDR due to a weak Bermuda/Azores high? The result of the weak high is weaker trade winds not upwelling cooler water in the MDR. If there is a transition into a La Nina I think the Bermuda High normally moves closer to the EC. Lots of factors that could potentially make for a busy landfall season for the Caribbean and CONUS. Not excited for landfalls, but I'm getting pumped about the 2010 season!!