Severe Storm threat for Easter Weekend?

[KWT]

Whilst its still a few days away yet, the models are suggestive of at least a risk of severe conditions for this Friday, synoptically I think there is enough of a risk to merit a thread this early, if we get enough moisture and decent insolation in the morning then the conditions aloft would support a borderline slight/moderate type event, but still a long away yet in forecasting terms!

[KWT]

Threat still looks on for the 2-3rd of April:

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 300854
SPC AC 300854

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT TUE MAR 30 2010

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
STG WRN TROUGHING IS EXPECTED FROM WY-NM TO NWRN MEX BY START OF
DAY-4/2ND-3RD...WITH CONSENSUS AMONG BOTH ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL
MODELS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL TURN NEWD LATE DAY-4 AND INTO
DAY-5/3RD-4TH...REACHING VICINITY LS BY END OF DAY-5. SFC CYCLONE
LIKEWISE SHOULD EJECT NEWD FROM SRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...AS
COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD/SEWD OVER MID-UPPER MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS.
UKMET APPEARS TO BE LESS-RELIABLE FAST OUTLIER COMPARED TO
ECMWF/SPECTRAL AND MOST MREF MEMBERS. FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN ACROSS S
TX DAYS 5-6/3RD-5TH AS UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WELL-REMOVED.

GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DAY-4 INVOF FRONT...BEGINNING
EARLY IN PERIOD OVER WRN PORTIONS SRN PLAINS...WHEN GEOMETRY OF MASS
FIELDS...MAX AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE TO THIS SYSTEM...AND PROBABLE
ALIGNMENT OF FRONT SUGGEST LIKELIHOOD OF DOMINANT LINEAR
ORGANIZATION. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR CERTAINLY COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY NEAR SRN PORTION OF CONVECTIVE ZONE
OVER TX...WHERE CAPPING WILL BE STRONGER DUE TO ANTECEDENT ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER. ACTUAL CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL SVR THREAT IS LONGER THAN
30% AREA HERE...WHICH INSTEAD REPRESENTS BEST ESTIMATE OF
JUXTAPOSITION OF MOVING FRONTAL ZONE...RICHEST RETURNING MOISTURE
AND STG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

So this one does need watching, as long as we get good enough moisture and the wind shear is ok things look decent for a severe outbreak occuring.

[cycloneye]

[srainhoutx]

San Angelo Multi Media briefing offering some hints as to what we may see on Friday in TX...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sjt/?n=daily

[KWT]

Its still a somewhat undertain set-up and there are some factors that are going to be a little dicey, esp the dews, whilst they are forecasted to be ok I've found models like the GFS will quite often overdo dew points, an issue us in the UK suffer from even in the summer!

[srainhoutx]

Perhaps KWT can edit the Title to include the Easter Holiday weekend. There appears to be a bigger threat lurking via the GFS as dewpoint look to increase throughout the weekend into the Midwest. HGX is already mentioning the return flow off the GOM and a fairly significant increase in the dewpoints. While Good Friday will be the beginning of the severe threat, it does appear that severe weather chances will spread further N and E than just TX and the Southern Plains.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1043 AM CDT TUE MAR 30 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ONSHORE FLOW STARTING TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS REGION. DEWPOINTS WENT
UP 10-15 DEGREES THE LAST 24 HOURS ACROSS CWFA ESPECIALLY AREAS
NEAR THE COAST. CONSIDERABLE CIRRUS SHIELD MOVING ON TOP OF RIDGE
COVERING MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. LEADING EDGE
APPEARS TO BE THINNING OUT WHILE MOVING FARTHER SOUTH. ZFPHGX ON
TRACK. 37

[RL3AO]

A more active pattern setting up right now. More ridging in the east will allow the GOM to heat up and allow moisture to surge north. Middle of April onwards should be interesting.

[Dave]

This came in from klxv this afternoon...

A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

Nothing out of Indianapolis or Wilmington Oh yet.

[srainhoutx]

Appears to be some concern regarding a stout cap from reading various AFD's across TX this afternoon. EWX (Austin/San Antonio) thoughts as an example...

THE NEXT BIG CHANGE WILL COME AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA PULLING A COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EFFECT US
THU NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FRI THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AND POPS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS CHANCE SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
NORTHEAST OF I10 DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FRI.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA WILL BE CAPPED...SO NO
MENTION OF SEVERE OUT THERE.

[KWT]

Yeah the capping is always a possible issue when it comes to convective systems, still the fact dew points rose as much as they have done in the last 24hrs is good news, its something some have been concerned about.

Also edited the title BTW...

[srainhoutx]

SPC now has a large part of TX , OK, NW LA, and AR under a Slight Risk...





DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT WED MAR 31 2010

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN PLAINS TO ARKLATEX
REGION AND AR...

...SYNOPSIS...
BY 2/12Z...SERIES OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS -- NOW
CONTRIBUTING TO HEIGHT FALLS OVER MUCH OF WRN CONUS -- WILL LEAD TO
HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH FROM DAKOTAS SSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...SRN NM AND INTERIOR NWRN MEX. ANCHORING/SRN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EWD TO W TX BY 3/00Z...THEN PIVOT GRADUALLY ENEWD
ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN TX AND PERHAPS ARKLATEX REGION BY END OF PERIOD.
MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN MOST SHORT-RANGE PROGS...AND
UNLIKE OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL/WRF...SOME SREF MEMBERS INDICATE CLOSED
500 MB LOW BY MIDDLE OF PERIOD OVER W TX. DESPITE THESE MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES...GENERAL TREND IS FOR MORE PROGRESSIVE AND STRONGER
HEIGHT FALLS AT LOWER LATITUDES THAN PROGS HAVE INDICATED BEFORE.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM MN LOW SSWWD ACROSS WRN OK
AND E-CENTRAL TX EARLY IN PERIOD...MOVING EWD AND SEWD TO NEAR WRN
WI...NWRN MO...SRN OK AND SW TX BY 3/00Z...WITH DRYLINE INTERSECTING
FRONT OVER SRN OK OR N-CENTRAL TX. BY 3/12Z...FRONT SHOULD
ACCELERATE TO LM...ERN AR AND SWRN LA/SE TX AREA AS MID-UPPER TROUGH
APCHS.

...SRN PLAINS TO ARKLATEX REGION AND AR...
WHILE NOT OPTIMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MOISTURE RETURN BY DAY-3
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF LINE OF STG-SVR TSTMS
LATE DAY-2 INTO EARLY DAY-3 PERIOD ALONG COLD FRONT...AS THAT
BOUNDARY IMPINGES UPON MOIST SECTOR. EXPECT UPPER 50S TO MID 60S F
DEW POINTS IN PRE-STORM/PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL TX INTO
OK AND SERN KS...VERTICAL SHEAR STRENGTHENING WITH TIME EARLY IN
PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH AND PRECEDING...NEARLY MERIDIONAL UPPER JET
MAX APCH.

ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE...COULD DEVELOP FARTHER S ACROSS PORTIONS
CENTRAL/NRN TX AND SRN OK DURING DAY AS COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION AND AREAS OF DIABATIC HEATING ASSIST WITH AIR MASS
RECOVERY BEHIND MORNING ACTIVITY. SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT OF
SUCH DESTABILIZATION IS UNCERTAIN...OTHERWISE THIS COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT SVR EVENT GIVEN STRENGTH OF DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS.
ANTECEDENT LOW CLOUDS MAY RENDER ONLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF STG SFC
HEATING AHEAD OF FRONT AND DRYLINE DURING AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE STG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL...WHICH WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON FACTORS SUCH AS PREDOMINANCE OF DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE
STORM MODES THAT ARE TOO SMALL IN SCALE TO FCST THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.

CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST INTO EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER
PORTIONS E TX...ERN OK...NWRN LA AND AR...GRADUALLY OUTRUNNING
FAVORABLE DESTABILIZATION FOR SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS.
SVR PROBABILITIES THEREFORE ARE SLOPED GENTLY DOWNWARD WITH EWD
EXTENT OVER OUTLOOK AREA.

..EDWARDS.. 03/31/2010

[KWT]

Yep looking likely that we will see some severe weather on Friday...also chances for some severe weather IF any storms can develop tomorrow and if they do we will get a slight risk, but thats uncertain as the cap is strong:

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SUFFICIENT MARINE MODIFICATION HAS OCCURRED TO
YIELD BROAD FIELD OF 60-64 F SFC DEW POINTS OVER ROUGHLY SWRN 1/3 OF
GULF...WITH 50S F ASHORE ENTIRE TX COASTAL PLAIN. MODIFIED 31/00Z
RAOBS AROUND GULF INDICATE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER IS RELATIVELY
SHALLOW AND MAY BE EASILY MIXED WHERE STG DIABATIC HEATING DOES TAKE
PLACE...AT LEAST TO EXTENT THAT STG CAPPING WILL PERMIT. MIXING AND
RELATED BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION COULD BE RESTRICTED DIURNALLY
DUE TO LOW CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF MOIST SECTOR...ALTHOUGH NARROW
CORRIDOR AHEAD OF FRONT/DRYLINE SHOULD CLEAR LONG ENOUGH FOR AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS OF STG HEATING. EXPECT PLUME OF LOW-50S TO
LOW-60S F SFC DEW POINTS BY 2/00Z FROM N-CENTRAL/NW TX TO N-CENTRAL
KS.

SEVERAL DAYS OF PRIOR SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE YIELDED STOUT
ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BUT ALSO STG CAPPING OF BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH. THIS SHOULD
PRECLUDE AFTERNOON TSTMS OVER MOST OF OUTLOOK AREA...ALTHOUGH
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT CONDITIONAL SVR POTENTIAL
WITH ANY TSTM THAT CAN DEVELOP. IF AN ISOLATED DIURNAL TSTM CAN
FORM...PRIND PROBABILITY WOULD BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED BY LATE
AFTERNOON OVER N-CENTRAL OR W-CENTRAL KS -- NEAR COLD FRONT/DRYLINE
INTERSECTION AND IN RELATIVE PROXIMITY TO RELATIVE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MAX REPRESENTED BY SFC CYCLONE. THREAT IS TOO
CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.

MAIN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL..AND CONDITIONAL SVR THREAT...WILL BE NEAR
END OF PERIOD IN CORRIDOR FROM N-CENTRAL KS TO WRN OK AND NW AND
W-CENTRAL TX. AS TIME PROGRESSES AFTER 2/06Z...PROBABILITY WILL
INCREASE FOR LINE OF TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG KS/OK SEGMENT OF COLD
FRONT SSWWD TOWARD AND PERHAPS ALONG DRYLINE. QUESTION ATTM IS NOT
SO MUCH WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT INSTEAD...TO WHAT EXTENT
BEFORE VERSUS AFTER 2/12Z. TIMING WILL DEPEND ON MESOSCALE FACTORS
SUCH AS STRENGTH OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND CONVECTIVE-SCALE
LIFT...IN ENVIRONMENT WHERE FLOW BACKING WITH HEIGHT IN 800-600 MB
LAYER INDICATES LIKELIHOOD THAT LINEAR MODE WOULD BECOME DOMINANT
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER INITIATION. SOME SUBSET OF THIS CORRIDOR MAY
BE UPGRADED CATEGORICALLY IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN A FEW HOURS OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION BEFORE 12Z...GIVEN STRENGTH OF DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELDS.

[srainhoutx]

Still some uncertainty as guidance has been changing from run to run, but there may well be a threat of some severe weather for the remainder of the Holiday Weekend. We shall see but certainly bears watching IMHO.

SPC 4-8 Day Outlook...

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT WED MAR 31 2010

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DISCUSSED IN DAY-3 OUTLOOK SHOULD LIFT NEWD UP
OH VALLEY DAY-4/3RD-4TH...OUTRUNNING ANY REMAINING/FAVORABLE
LOW-LEVEL THETAE AND LEAVING BEHIND FRONTOLYTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND CENTRAL/S TX. BEYOND THAT...WSW TO SW FLOW
ALOFT AND RELATED LEE CYCLONE/TROUGHING WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED
OVER CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...AS WILL ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR MASS
ALOFT. CONSENSUS OF OPERATIONAL/MREF GUIDANCE STRONGLY INDICATES
NEXT COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES -- WITHIN BROADER PLUME OF
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER WRN CONUS DAY-5/4TH-5TH AND BEYOND -- WILL PASS
ACROSS ROCKIES FARTHER N AND WITH BROADER/RICHER MOIST SECTORS THAN
DAY-2/DAY-3 SYSTEM. THIS POTENTIALLY PORTENDS MULTIPLE DAYS OF AT
LEAST MRGL SVR POTENTIAL E OF DRYLINE AND ALONG AND SE OF FRONTAL
ZONES...OVER CENTRAL AND/OR SRN PLAINS STATES. ATTM...PROGGED
TIMING/STRENGTH OF SPECIFIC PERTURBATIONS...AND OF THEIR RELATED
LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES...IS TOO INCONSISTENT TO ASSIGN CATEGORICAL
AREAS.

..EDWARDS.. 03/31/2010

[KWT]

Yeah nothing too extreme but there does look like a fairly decent risk of severe conditions over the Easter Weekend.

Looks like we are finally reaching the time of year where severe storms become increasingly probable...

[srainhoutx]

Things may get started a bit earlier as the SPC has upgraded parts of OK and KS to a Slight Risk for tomorrow.


SPC AC 311736

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 PM CDT WED MAR 31 2010

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF WRN OK
THROUGH CNTRL KS...

CORRECTED FIRST SENTENCE IN LAST PARAGRAPH

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE CA COAST WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
WRN STATES INTO THURSDAY AND SUBSEQUENTLY ADVANCE EWD...REACHING THE
CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE NRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE THE INITIAL CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH EJECTING LEAD IMPULSE AND CONTINUE NEWD
ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY.
SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH ASCENT ATTENDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH. DRYLINE WILL
SETUP OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EWD
FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS CYCLONE AND LIFT NWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. POLAR FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS IN WAKE OF
EJECTING IMPULSE AND LIKELY OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE THURSDAY NIGHT.
PACIFIC FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY LOWER LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WHERE IT WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH THE DRYLINE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

[KWT]

Very interesting to see they've upped tomorrow to a slight risk, a little earlier then I was expecting but interesting all the same!

[CrazyC83]

I would think it would be mostly a hail threat tomorrow though, if anything. I don't think there is enough moisture to produce anything major in this round. Maybe next week.

[KWT]

I'm not sure, I think moisture will be good enough for Friday, though tomorrow is a little questionable I agree.

The models are very keen on the extended period it has to be said.

[srainhoutx]

Very good discussion out of Dodge City, KS WFO concerning tomorrow evening and all the dynamics at play. Another thing worth mentioning is the fact that the cold front may infact stall near SE TX/SW LA and return N as a warm front opening the door to more convection on Easter Sunday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
300 PM CDT WED MAR 31 2010

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITING EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LEAVING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE,
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A STRONG +130KT UPPER LEVEL JET CORE IS
CLIMBING OUT OF THE TROUGH AXIS NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. NEAR THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN IOWA.

SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INDICATING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA TONIGHT BEFORE
TURNING EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. IT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIP TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS
LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A COLD FRONT
ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS
SOMETIME JUST AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. AT ROUGHLY THE SAME TIME, A +100KT
UPPER LEVEL JET WITH A NE-SW AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS OF TEXAS UP INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BY THIS EVENING
WITH A STRENGTHENING DRYLINE GENERALLY SITUATED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH TEXAS. DEWPOINTS AT H85 WILL INCREASE
UP TO AROUND 10C JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS IT BEGINS TO RETREAT
TO THE WEST JUST AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO EDGE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP THEN STRENGTHEN ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THEN LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO NEBRASKA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS
THE DRYLINE BACKS INTO THE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST.

HELPING POTENTIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE INCREASING SURFACE
CONVERGENCE, BETTER AVAILABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT, AND
INCREASED STEEP LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL COULD BE A HINDERING ISSUE. THE FRONT IS
ONLY PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA BY 03 TO
06Z FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR THE LOSS OF RADIATIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND HELPING TO STABILIZE THE LOWER LEVELS SOMEWHAT
BEFORE MAKING CONTACT WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE POOL. THIS COULD
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT WHILE ALSO CONTAINING IT
TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. BECAUSE OF THIS, WILL KEEP ONLY CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS GOING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA. SEVERITY
OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS IS IN QUESTION AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE FAIRLY DECENT SPEED SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50KTS BUT ARE
LACKING IN STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THEY ALSO INDICATE HIGHER
BASED STORM POTENTIAL WHICH COULD LIMIT TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SHOULD RESULT WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING HAIL AND POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY IN AN AREA OF POST-FRONTAL H7 BAROCLINICITY. WILL INCREASE
POPS UP TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY EAST WITH POPS TAPERING OFF TO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY WEST EARLY FRIDAY.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I was having doubts about whether or not adequate moisture levels would be in place come Friday for a decent severe event, but based on the surge in dewpoints we have seen across the Southern Plains today, I am starting to believe they will be. Dewpoints as of this evening (20-40 hours ahead of storm initiation) are already approaching 60F across North Texas, and in Oklahoma mid-50s dewpoints are becoming quite common. If we can have similar or (preferably) higher values in place by the time Friday rolls around, then moisture shouldn't be too much of a problem with this event.

Current Oklahoma dewpoints (as of 10:30pm 3/31/10):