Severe Storm threat for Easter Weekend?

[somethingfunny]

Yeah, it's definitely become moist here. Ugh. I miss Winter already.

Should definitely be an interesting day on Friday.

[srainhoutx]

SPC expands Slight Risk area just a bit. Guidance may not be handling the storm system too well and we may not know the 'finer details' until Friday.




DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT THU APR 01 2010

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN/E-CENTRAL PLAINS
TO OZARKS AND ARKLATEX...

CORRECTED FOR 15% LINE

...SYNOPSIS...
ERN CONUS MEAN RIDGING AND WRN TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE UPPER AIR
PATTERN OVER CONUS THROUGH PERIOD. STG MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NRN/CENTRAL
CA AND JUST OFFSHORE SRN CA AS OF 01/05Z -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS WRN CONUS DAY-1...REACHING NM AND CHIHUAHUA BY BEGINNING OF
DAY-2. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING
DAY...REACHING W-CENTRAL TX AND WRN OK BY 3/00Z...THEN TURNING
NEWD...ASSUMING SLGT NEGATIVE TILT...AND MOVING OVER ARKLATEX AND
OZARK REGIONS BY END OF PERIOD. REASONABLY STG CONSENSUS IS
SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN GUIDANCE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SFC AND ALOFT.

MEANWHILE...LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SRN NV WILL EJECT NEWD
TO DAKOTAS BY 2/12Z...CONTRIBUTING TO REGIME OF HIGH-AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING. QUASISTATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK EMBEDDED LOW
ARE EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER S-CENTRAL GULF NEAR
YUCATAN PENINSULA...SURROUNDED BY STG DRYING ALOFT AND ACCORDINGLY
IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE. NRN STREAM TROUGH - NOW EVIDENT S OF
ALEUTIANS...WILL MOVE SEWD AND AMPLIFY THROUGH PERIOD...REACHING
COASTAL PAC NW AND PERHAPS INLAND CASCADES BY 3/00Z.

AT SFC...FRONTAL ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM WY ACROSS SERN NEB AND SWRN
KS...CURVING NWWD INTO SERN CO..WHERE WEAK CYCLONE IS DRAWN AT ITS
INTERSECTION WITH LEE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SSEWD ACROSS ERN NM/TX
BORDER REGION. MAIN SFC LOW SHOULD CONSOLIDATE OVER CO DAY-1...THEN
EJECT NEWD AS FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE LATE DAY-1 INTO EARLY DAY-2...IN
ADVANCE OF LEAD SHORTWAVE. THIS LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER MN
AROUND BEGINNING OF PERIOD...WITH COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS ERN
NEB...CENTRAL KS AND NWRN OK. WEAKER/PACIFIC ORIGIN FRONTAL ZONE
AND EFFECTIVE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SSWWD ACROSS NWRN/WRN OK TO BIG
BEND REGION...WHILE MORE PURE DRYLINE BOUNDARY SPLITS OFF OVER SW TX
AND EXTENDS SSEWD ACROSS ERN COAHUILA. BY 3/00Z...EXPECT COLD FRONT
FROM IA TO CENTRAL MO TO SRN OK AND NW TX...WITH PRECEDING
FRONT/DRYLINE FROM N-CENTRAL TX SWD/SSWWD OVER LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. BY END OF PERIOD...LATTER BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH ROUGHLY
FROM MID MS VALLEY SWWD ACROSS ERN AR...CENTRAL/SRN LA AND NWRN
GULF.

...SRN/E-CENTRAL PLAINS TO OZARKS AND ARKLATEX...
MULTI-MODAL SVR EPISODE POSSIBLE THROUGH PERIOD...BUT WITH ENOUGH
LIMITING FACTORS STILL EVIDENT TO KEEP PROBABILISTIC MAXIMA WITHIN
CATEGORICAL SLGT-RISK BIN. WRN PART OF OUTLOOK OVER OK/KS
REPRESENTS CONTINUING SVR POTENTIAL FROM LATE DAY-1 PERIOD...AS LINE
OF TSTMS MOVES EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SVR GUSTS/HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE NEWD EARLY IN PERIOD
WHILE BACKBUILDING SWD...EFFECTIVELY EXPANDING INTO NARROW CORRIDOR
OF ADEQUATE --- BUT NOT IDEAL -- RETURN-FLOW MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF
SFC FRONT. ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT FAVORABLE DIURNAL
HEATING TO NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF MAIN CONVERGENCE ZONE...HOWEVER
STRENGTH OF DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS SUGGESTS SVR THREAT EVEN AMIDST
WEAK MLCAPE UNDER 1000 J/KG. POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK
FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER OK DURING MIDDAY...WHICH THEN WOULD MOVE
NEWD...ALSO MAY FOCUS ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL LIFT.

GREATEST JUXTAPOSITION OF SHEAR AND BUOYANCY MAY BE DURING AFTERNOON
FROM ERN/SRN OK SWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX. IN THAT CORRIDOR...STRONGER
AND LONGER-DURATION SFC HEATING...ALONG WITH SFC DEW POINTS REACHING
60S F AND LIFT INVOF FRONT/DRYLINE...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME
INITIALLY STRONG CAPPING THAT IS LIKELY AT BASE OF ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER. SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS LINEAR MODES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE
HAIL...SVR GUSTS AND PERHAPS THREAT OF TORNADOES. SVR THREAT WILL
TRANSLATE EWD INTO WRN AR AND NE TX DURING NIGHTTIME
HOURS...POSSIBLY BUILDING SWD INTO E-CENTRAL/SE TX. SWD EXTENT OF
SUCH DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED BY STG CINH. SVR POTENTIAL WILL
DIMINISH WITH TIME DURING MID-LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS -- I.E. AFTER
ABOUT 03/06Z...AS UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO EJECT AND AS ZONE OF
STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL FORCING EFFECTIVELY OUTPACES EWD SHIFT OF
FAVORABLY UNSTABLE CORRIDOR OF SFC-BASED INFLOW.

....LOWER MO VALLEY TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING DAY AS FRONTAL FORCING
IMPINGES UPON INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THETAE IN NARROW CORRIDOR FROM
MO-MN. DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL BE STG...WITH 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR...BUT ALSO...LIMITED DIABATIC DESTABILIZATION AND MEAN WIND
NEARLY PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY. MLCAPE 500-700 J/KG APPEARS
POSSIBLE...WITH PREDOMINANT LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE...WITH BOW/LEWP
DEVELOPMENT POSING SOME RISK OF STG-SVR GUSTS OR A BRIEF TORNADO.
SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL TO EXTEND CATEGORICAL RISK
THIS FAR N ATTM.

...INLAND PAC NW...
ISOLATED AND PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
ZONES OF STG LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MID-UPPER LEVEL DPVA PRECEDING
LANDFALLING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FCST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ALONE
WOULD INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STG-SVR TSTMS...AND POCKETS OF
SUPPORTIVE SFC HEATING MAY DEVELOP. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RATHER
MEAGER LOW-LEVEL THETAE...LIMITING BUOYANCY SIGNIFICANTLY.
HOWEVER...ONLY SLGT INCREASE VERSUS CONSENSUS OF CURRENT PROGS WOULD
BE NEEDED TO SUPPORT SOME SVR POTENTIAL. ATTM...THREAT APPEARS TOO
CONDITIONAL TO INTRODUCE PROBABILITIES.

..EDWARDS.. 04/01/2010

[Dave]

Near Record High Temperatures Today And Friday

A strong ridge of high pressure over the entire easter third of the nation will allow temperatures to climb well above seasonal normals today and Friday across central Kentucky and south central Indiana. Highs today will be in the low 80s. Friday's highs will warm a few degrees further with some areas reaching the mid 80s. With normal high temperatures in the low 60s...these temperatures will be 20 to 25 degrees above normal.

Today will likely be the warmest day since the 30th of October last year when highs also reached the upper 70s and low 80s. A weather system over the Midwest will move northeast and bring showers and thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley Saturday.

May prove to be interesting up here on Saturday.

[KWT]

Today is looking uncertain still IMO, the cap may well be very tough to break and may only get the odd isolated supercell. The slight risk is still worthwhile being in place for now because things can change but we shall see.

Moisture is increasing though thats for sure and tomorrow still looks somewhat interesting, though the real fun may begin on Monday, as the warmth and moisture remains fairly well established and will build further.

[srainhoutx]

Dave, you folks are having a heat wave up there. SPC has expanded todays threat (Slight Risk) just a bit as well. You are correct KWT. The moisture return off the GOM is surging N now. It will be interesting to see if the cap can be broken.




DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0722 AM CDT THU APR 01 2010

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NWRN TX...WRN AND
NRN OK...AND SRN KS...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD WITH
PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
FORECAST TO SPREAD EAST FROM SRN CA TO SRN/CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. RIDGING...SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL EXIST DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE WRN TROUGH AND CONTRIBUTE TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FROM THE MS VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST.

LEE CYCLOGENESIS WAS ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER NERN CO AND A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW SHOULD CONSOLIDATE ACROSS NEBRASKA THIS EVENING BEFORE
TRACKING NEWD ALONG STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS
INTO NRN MN. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP EAST FROM THE
CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH
LEE-TROUGH/RESIDUAL DRYLINE VICINITY SRN KS...NRN AND WRN OK...AND
NWRN TX AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.

...TX/OK/KS OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...
MASS ADJUSTMENT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL
PROVOKE INTENSIFICATION OF LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH TODAY. MEANWHILE...STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW ALOFT
AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODEST
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG/ FROM THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TO KS BY EVENING. STOUT EML PLUME SHOULD EFFECTIVELY
CAP MARGINALLY MOIST LOW LEVEL PARCELS FROM REACHING AN LFC UNTIL
WELL AFTER DARK WHEN STRONGER FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
FRONT ARRIVE OVER THE AREA FROM NWRN TX TO KS.

GIVEN CORRIDOR OF ANTECEDENT INSTABILITY/MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG
AND INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG CLOUD-BEARING
SHEAR...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. ONLY LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE WIND/TORNADO THREATS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO LIMITED MAGNITUDE AND AREAL
EXTENT OF SURFACED-BASED INSTABILITY.

...DAKOTAS/NRN MN...
PRONOUNCED QG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EVOLVE WITHIN COUPLED-JET
REGION FROM THE DAKOTAS TO MN THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
LARGER SCALE CYCLONE DEVELOPS NEWD FROM NEBRASKA...FORCED ASCENT
ACROSS THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY FEEDING THIS CONVECTION...ALONG WITH
STRONG SHEAR AND FORCING IN THIS ZONE...SUGGEST THAT HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS. SOMEWHAT MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES...AND SPC HAIL GUIDANCE...SUGGEST THAT HAIL SIZE MAY BE
LIMITED TO LESS THAN 1 INCH WITH THE BULK OF THIS CONVECTION.

..CARBIN/JEWELL.. 04/01/2010

[KWT]

If the cap can be broken then it'd give some good rewards to anybody chasing in the region because the supercells would likely be isolated and thus give good photo chances.

As for tomorrow, just got to hope there isn't too much cloud cover in the morning which may limit heating but we shall see!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Several 58-60F dewpoints are showing up across Oklahoma this morning...

[CrazyC83]

I figured there would be an April Fools joke somewhere and they would upgrade to a High Risk...

[KWT]

Nah, there is plenty of that going on elsewhere in the site!

Still those dew points aren't too bad, getting into the 60s suggests there is enough moisture, it just depends on whether the cap can be broken or not, very 50-50.

[srainhoutx]

09Z SREF data looks rather impressive for Central TX and points N and E on Friday.

[srainhoutx]

SPC makes some changes to the Slight Risk threat. Areas in Central TX have been removed and things have shifted a bit N and E. With that said and the way guidance is flip flopping from run to run, tomorrow will be interesting to watch unfold...





SPC AC 011720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT THU APR 01 2010

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MO VALLEY REGION
SWD INTO E TX AND EWD INTO THE OZARKS/ARKLATEX AREAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ALOFT THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF THE U.S. AS A TROUGH
EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IMPINGES ON A STEADFAST RIDGE OVER
THE EAST. MEANWHILE...A SECOND TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ONSHORE
OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...BUT THEN
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS IT SHIFTS INLAND.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD
ACROSS MN AND VICINITY...WHILE A TRAILING N-S COLD FRONT SHIFTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE MS VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...MID MO VALLEY SWD INTO ERN TX AND EWD TO THE OZARKS/ARKLATEX...
THUNDERSTORMS -- AND AT LEAST SOME HAIL/WIND THREAT -- SHOULD BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...MAINLY FROM CENTRAL KS SWD INTO
WRN PORTIONS OF N TX ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD INCREASE A BIT INTO THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION...AS A NARROW PLUME OF
LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE SLOW INCREASE IN BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING WILL BE AT
LEAST SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY WHAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EXPANSIVE PRE-FRONTAL
CLOUDINESS -- SUFFICIENT TO RETARD DAYTIME HEATING TO SOME DEGREE.
NONETHELESS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO EXPAND NNEWD ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD/ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY REGION...AND ALSO SWD INTO E CENTRAL
TX -- THOUGH INCREASING CAPPING WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS TX SHOULD ACT
AS A HINDRANCE TO SWD DEVELOPMENT DESPITE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC EVOLUTION.

WHILE LARGELY MERIDIONAL...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL BE QUITE
STRONG...SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS. MEAN WIND ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SUGGESTS A PRIMARILY LINEAR STORM MODE --
POSSIBLY WITH A FEW EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS/COMMA HEADS. DAMAGING
WINDS SHOULD BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL...THOUGH
MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL MAY BE THE MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
OCCURRENCE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT --
WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL APPARENT ACROSS E TX WHERE GREATER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THUS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT LESS
MERIDIONAL FLOW FIELD IS EXPECTED.

THE LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE RISK
AREA...BUT REMAINING MORE ORGANIZED/POTENTIALLY SEVERE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FARTHER S AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE OZARKS/ARKLATEX
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 04/01/2010

[KWT]

Cap still holding firm today, hopefully we can get something going in the next hour but if not then the risk will decrease.

Tomorrow does look somewhat more interesting still however, and the first half of next week is still showing some promise as well...

[Bunkertor]

This cap is dun

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 PM CDT THU APR 01 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NEB/EASTERN SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 020431Z - 020600Z

AT LEAST AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT MAY
DEVELOP/INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NEB/EASTERN SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA. THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS
UNCLEAR...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

NORTH OF A STRONG TO SEVERE QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NEB AND MUCH OF CENTRAL KS...ADDITIONAL STRONG
DEVELOPMENT HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEB BETWEEN
THE ORD AND ONEILL VICINITIES...IN ADDITION TO MORE ISOLATED
ELEVATED TSTMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL SD. THE RECENT EAST CENTRAL NEB
TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF 990 MB SURFACE
LOW/TRIPLE POINT...WITH A MODESTLY MOIST /MIDDLE 50S F DEWPOINT/ BUT
SEEMINGLY SURFACE-INHIBITED BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/SOUTH OF WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHERN MN. THE
EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF A SEVERE RISK IS UNCLEAR...BUT AT LEAST A
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL RISK MAY DEVELOP IN THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF NEB/SD AND PERHAPS SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA AS
A LOW LEVEL JET/ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ABOVE THE
SURFACE.

..GUYER.. 04/02/2010


ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0233
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CDT THU APR 01 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL NEB/CENTRAL KS TO WESTERN/CENTRAL OK
AND WESTERN NORTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 41...

VALID 020450Z - 020615Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 41
CONTINUES.

SEVERE TSTM WATCH 41 CONTINUES UNTIL 09Z...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR
SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.

MODESTLY BROKEN/NNE-SSW ORIENTED QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE LINE
CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEB/CENTRAL KS/NORTHWEST OK EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT HAS RECENTLY BEEN NOTED NEAR/SOUTH OF I-40 IN WESTERN
OK...AND THIS MAY ULTIMATELY WARRANT A SOUTHWARD EXPANSION OF SEVERE
TSTM WATCH 41...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT
PERHAPS INTO THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH TX OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

THE SEVERE EPISODE MAY HAVE ALREADY PEAKED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
KS/SOUTH CENTRAL NEB GIVEN A DOMINATE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE AND A
MODEST/NARROW WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE QLCS. NONETHELESS...MAINLY
MARGINAL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. FARTHER SOUTH...THE
SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE TO A DEGREE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL OK...AS WELL AS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NORTH TX. SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF HAIL MAY BE THE
PRIMARY RISK INITIALLY...BUT NEAR-SEVERE WINDS/PERHAPS EVEN A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MODAL EVOLUTIONS LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACH AROUND 60F OR
ABOVE /BASED ON ADJUSTED MODEL SOUNDINGS/.

..GUYER.. 04/02/2010


ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

[Dave]

SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 41
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
925 PM CDT THU APR 1 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
PARTS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 925 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF GRAND ISLAND NEBRASKA TO 55 MILES SOUTH OF GAGE
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAS INTERSECTED THE DRY
LINE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING. WITH A VERY STRONG
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD MOVING EWD INTO HIGH
PLAINS...THE MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ROTATING STORMS ENHANCING
THE SEVERE THREAT PRIOR BECOMING A MORE LINEAR MODE OVERNIGHT AS THE
STORMS MOVE EWD.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22035.


...HALES

[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye on N Central TX to KS tomorrow. Looks like the show is about to begin. Stay Safe folks. Long weekend Dave. Guidance suggests you folks in the Midwest may have some issues early next week.

[Dave]

Keep an eye on N Central TX to KS tomorrow. Looks like the show is about to begin. Stay Safe folks. Long weekend Dave. Guidance suggests you folks in the Midwest may have some issues early next week.

I know been watching both your area, north then east into us..I can see a long weekend coming up for many of us. I'll be on as much as I can be.

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 42
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
620 AM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 620 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF CHANDLER OKLAHOMA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
ARDMORE OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...RAPIDLY MOVING STORMS ROOTED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL OK...IN ADVANCE
OF A REMNANT DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE HIGH MOMENTUM FLOW JUST
OFF THE GROUND AND AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...THERE
WILL BE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER EMBEDDED
BOWING SEGMENTS. ALSO...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT
THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
727 AM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN PAYNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 800 AM CDT

* AT 727 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF
TRYON TO 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHANDLER TO 4 MILES SOUTH OF
SPARKS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...
WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE AGRA...AVERY...CHANDLER...
CUSHING...DAVENPORT...KENDRICK...MEEKER...PARKLAND...PERKINS...
RIPLEY...SPARKS...STROUD...TRYON AND YALE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 163 AND 182.