ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[KWT]

I'm fully expecting a near total collapse of the El Nino over the next 45-60 days, the kelvin wave kept the El nino going but now nearly everything is against the El nino, so should be back down to neutral by the early portion of the hurricane season.

[cycloneye]

The SOI index is now going up indicating that the El Nino is on its last stage.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/

Daily SOI Index

29-Mar-2010 1011.51 1006.20 +5.74
30-Mar-2010 1012.15 1006.40 +7.85
31-Mar-2010 1011.69 1005.95 +7.80
1-Apr-2010 1011.05 1006.55 +15.21
2-Apr-2010 1012.24 1006.65 +23.07


30 day SOI Index

[cycloneye]

Dip,dip,dip,.CFS now goes Neutral by May and to La Nina by June.Lets see what the other ENSO models have later in the month.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... cast.shtml

[KWT]

That set of ensembles isn't quite as cold as the last months or worth or so. I do think we are about to see quite a quick drop towards neutral this morning, though quite how far down and how quick remains to be seen.

[Derek Ortt]

I may need to do an el nino dance soon, lol

[KWT]

I think El Nino is pretty much stuffed, at least for the summer, esp given the Atmosphere is flipping back to being uncondusive towards El nino.

[cycloneye]

CFS is not alone as the Australian model POAMA in todays update does the same as CFS.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/coupled_model/poama.shtml

[GeneratorPower]

I may need to do an el nino dance soon, lol

You just love taking the lollipop away from the kiddos, don't cha?

[cycloneye]

CFS monthly graphics show the rapid change from El Nino to Neutral by May and goes to La Nina by late summer.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... cast.shtml

[Blown Away]

Looking at the list there has been many significant storms in the hurricane season following the El Nino!
http://ggweather.com/enso/years.htm

[WeatherEmperor]

Luis,

If you also look at the forecast SST for the Atlantic side on the graphic you posted above, you can see that the Atlantic SST cool off a bit as well especially towards August and September. They still look above normal, but it looks like the anomalies cool a lot compared to what they are now

[jinftl]

Scary how the western carribean...which has the highest TCHP (tropical cyclone heat potential) in the entire Atlantic basin is forecast to have well above normal sst......that could be like steroids for a system late season...

CFS monthly graphics show the rapid change from El Nino to Neutral by May and goes to La Nina by late summer.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... cast.shtml

[KWT]

Luis,

If you also look at the forecast SST for the Atlantic side on the graphic you posted above, you can see that the Atlantic SST cool off a bit as well especially towards August and September. They still look above normal, but it looks like the anomalies cool a lot compared to what they are now

Yeah but considering we are at record levels right now, of course they are gonna cool!

Put it this way, they are still WELL above average for the region, the MDR would probably be around 0.5-0.7C for the summer, which is very above average, plus the highest anomalies shift westwards, just like they usually do in severe seasons....

Anyway looking likely cool neutral/la nina will occur now looking at things.

[WeatherEmperor]

Luis,

If you also look at the forecast SST for the Atlantic side on the graphic you posted above, you can see that the Atlantic SST cool off a bit as well especially towards August and September. They still look above normal, but it looks like the anomalies cool a lot compared to what they are now

Yeah but considering we are at record levels right now, of course they are gonna cool!

Put it this way, they are still WELL above average for the region, the MDR would probably be around 0.5-0.7C for the summer, which is very above average, plus the highest anomalies shift westwards, just like they usually do in severe seasons....

Anyway looking likely cool neutral/la nina will occur now looking at things.

Yeah I guess you are right. I looked at the maps again and I see your point. Looks like an above average season is likely based on the SST anomalies, weakening El Nino and lower sea level pressure forecasts.

[cycloneye]

WeatherEmperor,what KWT said it very accurate about the sst anomalies in the Atlantic.Even if they go down by the peak of the season,they will be above average and that alone spells trouble for the Caribbean.The other factors like ENSO being Neutral to La Nina,lower pressures in the Caribbean and MDR will be favorable for plenty of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin.

[cycloneye]

CFS Model

No changes from the past week from the CFS (NCEP) model having Neutral ENSO as early as May and slipping to La Nina by late Summer.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... cast.shtml



CFS Model with all the ensembles

[KWT]

Yeah the CFS is still very keen to go borderline La Nina...I'm still not totally sure we will go that cold as the models struggle in the southern hemisphere Autumn with the ENSO.

[cycloneye]

I know the update is delayed here as it comes out in the morning hours but I had a medical appointment.Here is the Climate Prediction Center 4/5/10.El Nino 3.4 area continues to decrease although on a slow pace now down to +1.0C from +1.1C of last week.


Last Week Numbers

Niño 4= +1.0ºC
Niño 3.4= +1.1ºC
Niño 3= +0.7ºC
Niño1+2= +0.1ºC


This Week Numbers

Niño 4= +0.9ºC
Niño 3.4= +1.0ºC
Niño 3= +0.9ºC
Niño1+2= +0.1ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[HouTXmetro]

were we in Neutral or La Nina in 2005?

[cycloneye]

were we in Neutral or La Nina in 2005?

Neutral.