Severe Storm threat for Easter Weekend?

[Dave]

From KIND (NWS Indianapolis)

THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT, AND CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN EARNEST FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
SHORT TERM MODELS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...THE GFS IS BY FAR THE
FASTEST SOLUTION...MOVING PRECIP INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS IS NOT THE PREFERRED SOLUTION AS IT DISPLAYS
QUESTIONABLE AMPLIFICATION AND POSSIBLE PHASING BY 12Z SAT
MORNING. THE NAM & EURO ARE NEARLY 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND
SEEM TO BE SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES AND VERY CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS TIMING. DECIDED NOT TO STRAY FAR FROM CURRENT TIMING IN
FORECAST WHICH BRINGS BULK OF PRECIP THROUGH LATE SAT
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. SOUNDINGS
STILL SHOW WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY, SO LEFT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

MAIN CONCERN WITH REGARD TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION COMES
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACHING MAIN FRONT.
(ROUGHLY BETWEEN 18-00Z) MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING FOR DAYS A VERY
SHARP NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...AND A DRY SLOT FORMING BY SAT
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY/CAPE...STRONG FORCING AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH A FAIRLY STRONG 950/850 MB LOW
LEVEL JET COULD PRODUCE A SEVERE WIND THREAT IF ANY CONVECTION
DOES FORM. AND WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 6-7KT SMALL HAIL CANNOT
BE RULED OUT EITHER. LEFT IN MENTION OF CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ALSO PRESENT A CHALLENGE AND WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ANY POTENTIAL
CLEARING. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO PREFERRED NAM MOS WHICH YIELDS
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO
AVERAGE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CAN EXPECT
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY OF THE CONVECTION.

UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AND MORE ZONAL
FLOW QUICKLY REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES SAT NIGHT LOW-MID 40S.

**Note we are under a Red Flag Warning to 8 PM EDT tonight. We rarely see a red flag up here. Temp right now is 77; Dewpoint: 32; Humidity 19; Winds S @ 16.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
131 PM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ALLAMAKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA...
CLAYTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA...
EASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA...
EASTERN WINNESHIEK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 128 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF ST. CHARLES TO STRAWBERRY POINT...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELKADER...WAUKON...LANSING...POSTVILLE...FARMERSBURG...MONONA...
GARNAVILLO.

[KWT]

Actually had a change of mind since my last post, so that got deleated!

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
152 PM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

IAC005-043-065-191-021930-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-100402T1930Z/
WINNESHIEK IA-ALLAMAKEE IA-FAYETTE IA-CLAYTON IA-
152 PM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CLAYTON...
EASTERN FAYETTE...ALLAMAKEE AND EASTERN WINNESHIEK COUNTIES UNTIL 230
PM CDT...

AT 147 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM GOODVIEW TO GARNAVILLO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LANSING...HARPERS FERRY...NEW ALBIN...WAUKON JCT...ELDERGROVE...
THOMPSON CORNER...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

[srainhoutx]

A bit old but interesting none the less as it appears the front/dryline is stalling across Central TX and points N and E...

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/02/10 1954Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1940Z JJ
.
LOCATION...MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...
LOCATION...KANSAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...MBRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...HEAVY RAIN THREAT
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS WITH A
JET STREAK CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THAT HAS SET THE STAGE FOR
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER NE TEXAS THROUGH OK/AR INTO MO. A SHORTWAVE
OVER CENTRAL NM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE
VERTICAL MOTIONS OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA. IR IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED CLOUD
TOPS OVER NE OK THAT APPEARS TO BE BUILDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO A REGION
OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CENTERED OVER NE TX/SE OK. BLENDED TPW
SHOWS MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE GULF INTO EASTERN TX THROUGH OK
WITH MAX PW VALUES AROUND 1.4" IN SE OK AND AT THE SAME TIME RELATIVELY
LOWER PWS OVER WESTERN TX HAVE SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTION TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE. MANUAL SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE RAIN RATES
OVER 1.0"/HR IN THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORES ALONG THE LINE FROM
NE TX THROUGH SE OK AND SW MO. RATES SUCH AS THESE ARE LIKELY WITH THE
WEDGE SHAPED FEATURE IN IR IMAGERY IN N LE FLORE COUNTY. 3 HRLY FFG OF
2.0-3.0" MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE EXCEEDED ON THE SHORT TERM BUT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING, THE DISCUSSION AREA NEEDS TO BE
WATCHED TO SEE HOW THE HEAVY RAIN EVOLVES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. PLEASE SEE WEBSITE LISTED BELOW IN 10-15 MIN FOR
A GRAPHIC OUTLINING THE ABOVE STATED FEATURES.

[CrazyC83]

Now 15-hatched for tomorrow, mainly for a threat of isolated very large hail.

[KWT]

In the end nothing really came from yesterdays slight set-up, win some and lose some I suppose!

Anyway the 5-6th looks interesting still, though there is still time for things to downgrade somewhat, the cap looks fairly decent again but the models are keen to break it.

[KWT]

Several days of slight warnings, starting with today's risk:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SUN APR 04 2010

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MO/MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY FAST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ESPECIALLY FROM MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS TO THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST STATES. AHEAD OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS/UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN STATES...MULTIPLE LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST TODAY.
OTHERWISE...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHEAST STATES HIGH
PRESSURE...A MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS WILL RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS TX
AND MUCH OF OK/ARKLATEX ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...SOUTHEAST KS/FAR NORTHEAST OK TO LOWER MO/MIDDLE MS RIVER
VALLEYS...
SUBTLY RISING UPPER HEIGHTS/RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING ON THE LARGE
SCALE IMPLIES THAT STORMS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED/SLOWLY E-SE ADVANCING COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY. BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY EARLY
EVENING...THE COMBINATION OF AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET/ISENTROPIC
LIFT REGIME...AIDED BY A PASSING SPEED MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE FRONT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MO/NORTHERN IL...WITH
DEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN WITH SOUTHWESTWARD
EXTENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MO/SOUTHEAST KS/NORTHEAST OK.

WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AROUND 60 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS FAR EAST AS THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY...A WEAKLY
CAPPED/MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...COUPLED WITH STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR /50+ KT/ WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
SUPERCELLS...WITH A RISK OF SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
TWO. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO GRADUALLY CONGEAL AS THEY DEVELOP
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL.

...AR/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON...
UNCLEAR/CONDITIONAL SCENARIO ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AMIDST WEAK
FORCING/GRADUALLY RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...BUT ASSORTMENT OF NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE /ESPECIALLY THE 00Z GFS AND 21Z ETA-KF CONTROL/ IMPLIES
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STEADY
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E ADVECTION...CANNOT RULE OUT TSTM
INITIATION/SOME SEVERE RISK...AS THERMODYNAMIC/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
WOULD OTHERWISE SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY
HAIL/WIND.

...NORTHERN/WESTERN OK TO NORTHWEST TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...
AMPLE HEATING/MODEST CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF SOUTHWARD SAGGING
FRONT AND/OR DRYLINE COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/WESTERN OK
AND PERHAPS NORTHWEST TX. SCENARIO IS RATHER CONDITIONAL GIVEN
LIMITED SUPPORT ON THE LARGE SCALE AND MODEST NEAR-SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...BUT AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH
MODERATELY STRONG WSW FLOW ALOFT COULD SUPPORT A SUPERCELL OR TWO
WITH HAIL POSSIBLE.

[KWT]

Here is day 2's warnings, a bit further to the north this time:

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SUN APR 04 2010

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-UPR MS
VLY/CORN BELT...

...SYNOPSIS...
A MODEST BELT OF WSW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EXIST FROM THE GREAT BASIN
TO THE GRTLKS REGION ON MONDAY. NUMEROUS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS JET...EJECTING FROM THE MEAN ERN PAC
UPR TROUGH. A LEAD DISTURBANCE...NOW OVER NV...WILL BE EXITING THE
GRTLKS REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH STRONGER IMPULSES ADVANCING
FROM THE DESERT SW TO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS DURING THE AFTN/NIGHT.

...MID/UPR MS VLY/CORN BELT...
A STRONG ELEVATED-MIXED LAYER WILL SURGE NWD TOWARD THE REGION ON
MONDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE.
BUILDING HEIGHTS IN WAKE OF AN EARLY DAY UPR WAVE AND A LIKELY
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL PROBABLY RENDER THE NWD ADVANCING WRMFNT
INERT DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR SFC-BASED TSTM INITIATION FROM CNTRL/SRN IND/IL WWD
TO NRN MO. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...FCST HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT
CONSIDERABLE LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.

MORE CONFIDENT SCENARIO WILL BE FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTMS
AFTER DARK AS THE SWLY LLJ BEGINS TO RESPOND TO THE APPROACH OF A
STRONGER MID-LVL IMPULSE. H85 JET OF 60-70 KTS IMPINGING ON THE
WRMFNT WILL YIELD VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION PROFILES FROM ERN NEB
AND IA TO THE UPR MS VLY. GIVEN 7-7.5 DEG C PER KM MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KTS...SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY ELEVATED TO
NARROW SVR PROBABILITIES TO LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...NEARLY-SFC BASED
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN IA WITH ADDED
DMGG WIND/TORNADO RISKS.

SVRL NOCTURNAL TSTM CLUSTERS WILL EVOLVE MONDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY
REACHING NRN IL/SRN WI AND LWR MI BY 12Z TUESDAY. SVR THREATS WILL
BECOME MORE ISOLD AT MORE ELY LONGITUDES DURING THE NIGHT.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SUBTLE LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO EDGE ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS MONDAY AFTN/EVE AND THE DRYLINE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY
DEEPEN AMIDST STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING FROM NWRN TX INTO CNTRL
KS. THIS MAY WEAKEN CINH SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLD TSTM OR
TWO...MOST LIKELY IN NWRN OK OR SWRN KS WHERE MLCAPE WILL LIKELY
EXCEED 2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50 KTS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL. STRONG EML IN
PLACE WILL LIMIT NUMBER OF STORMS WITH ACTIVITY PROBABLY ONLY
SURVIVING A FEW HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING OVER SCNTRL KS/NCNTRL-WRN OK.

[KWT]

A big slight risk for Tuesday as well.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT SUN APR 04 2010

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-UPR MS VLY AND
ERN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX...POSITIVE-TILT AND FULL-LATITUDE UPR TROUGH EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE IN THE WRN STATES ON MONDAY WILL STEADILY PROGRESS ACROSS THE
CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL CONTAIN
TWO PRIMARY PIECES...ONE WHICH WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO
THE UPR GRTLKS TUESDAY AFTN...WITH A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY
DROPPING MORE SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

IN THE LWR LVLS...A SFC LOW OVER SERN NEB EARLY TUESDAY WILL DEVELOP
ENE TOWARD NRN IL DURING THE NIGHT AS SECONDARY...ALBEIT
WEAK...CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER CNTRL OK. A CDFNT WILL STRENGTHEN
AND ADVANCE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE ERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...MID/UPR MS VLY TO THE ERN PLAINS...
LARGELY ELEVATED TSTMS...LIKELY PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLD LARGE
HAIL...WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY AND CNTRL GRTLKS REGION
EARLY TUESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ENE THROUGH THE GRTLKS
REGION AND WEAKEN AS THE LLJ BACKS AND REFOCUSES ACROSS THE ERN
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE EJECTION OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH. THE
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL BE QUITE ROBUST ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THUS...THE WARM SECTOR...CHARACTERIZED BY
60-65 DEG F SFC DEW POINTS...WILL REMAIN CAPPED UNTIL LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ARRIVES DURING THE MID-LATE AFTN.

AS THE NRN-MOST UPR IMPULSE SWINGS TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS...FIRST
TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE CDFNT ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY
WITH A SUBSEQUENT BACKBUILDING SWWD INTO THE ERN PLAINS AS CINH IS
WEAKENED...AS FAR S AS CNTRL/ERN OK.

ORIENTATION OF THE MEAN UPR TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
LINE-PARALLEL SHEAR ALONG MOST OF THE FRONT EXCEPT THE SRN-END WHERE
VECTORS WILL BE COMPARATIVELY PERPENDICULAR. THUS...STORMS WILL
TEND TO EVOLVE INTO LINES MOSTLY...ALTHOUGH DISCRETE STORMS WILL BE
MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. WHILE DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE A THREAT THROUGHOUT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...TORNADO
PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE UPR MS VLY INVOF THE SFC
LOW...AND ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WHERE THE RICHEST MOISTURE AND
MORE DISCRETE STORM MODES WILL EXIST.

[RL3AO]

Quite a few of the chasers are going to Kansas tomorrow despite it not being in a slight risk (yet).

[KWT]

Yeah the SPC aren't that keen on the set-up for Monday in Kansas despite as you say quite a few chasers heading down there.

[Bunkertor]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 45
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT SUN APR 4 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST IOWA - WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS - EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS -
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.



TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF PEORIA
ILLINOIS TO 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF OLATHE KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST
KS...ACROSS NORTHERN MO...INTO WESTERN IL. RAPID RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG HEATING SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL
DESTABILIZE REGION...WHILE STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ENHANCE
VERTICAL SHEAR. SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED EARLY WITH A RISK OF LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. DURING THEN EVENING...ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
IL WITH A RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

[Dave]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 45
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT SUN APR 4 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST IOWA
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF PEORIA
ILLINOIS TO 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF OLATHE KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST
KS...ACROSS NORTHERN MO...INTO WESTERN IL. RAPID RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG HEATING SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL
DESTABILIZE REGION...WHILE STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ENHANCE
VERTICAL SHEAR. SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED EARLY WITH A RISK OF LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. DURING THEN EVENING...ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
IL WITH A RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

[Bunkertor]

[KWT]

Those could well turn severe soon, needs watching IMO!

[KWT]

As somewhat expected, we have some severe thunderstorms...should continue to get more STS soon as well...

The 5-6th still look more interesting however IMO.

[Bunkertor]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0246
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0623 PM CDT SUN APR 04 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO...SERN IA...NRN IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 45...

VALID 042323Z - 050030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 45 CONTINUES.

ASIDE FROM ONE PRIMARY LONGER LIVED SUPERCELL...THAT HAS PRODUCED
VERY LARGE HAIL OVER CARROLL COUNTY MO...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION
OF CONVECTION ACROSS WW45 HAS ALIGNED ITSELF ALONG THE IA/IL BORDER.
THIS ACTIVITY IS RAPIDLY EVOLVING INTO A N-S SQUALL LINE AS IT
RACES EAST AT ROUGHLY 45KT. VERY STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
EVOLVING SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES QUICKLY TOWARD THE ERN EDGE OF THE
WATCH OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. HOWEVER...AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVER NERN IL AND AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED.

[KWT]

Seems to be a reasonable amount of severe storms over western IL at the moment with some further to the west as well in Missouri, but has to be said thus far the tornado watch hasn't been needed.

[KWT]

First Tornado warning of the day in the cell over central MO:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
703 PM CDT SUN APR 4 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 700 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 4 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SALISBURY. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING
EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOBERLY...HIGBEE...CLARK AND RENICK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW

[KWT]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
714 PM CDT SUN APR 4 2010

MOC175-050030-
/O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-100405T0030Z/
RANDOLPH MO-
714 PM CDT SUN APR 4 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN RANDOLPH
COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 709 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF MOBERLY...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.