Severe Weather - Watches & Warnings -IL IN OH KY TN MI

[Dave]

Our time of the year is coming up now - April/May/June - Welcome to our region in the springtime.




http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[Dave]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT MON APR 05 2010

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL
KS/NW OK TO THE MID MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
DIFFICULT FORECAST TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HIGH-END SEVERE EVENTS...AS WELL AS
SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WARM SECTOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS
IL/IA/MO/NEB/KS/OK. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN AGREEMENT
MOVING A STRONG PAC COAST TROUGH INLAND ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHILE EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA EJECT ENEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE CYCLONE INVOF SW KS/SE CO WILL
DEVELOP NEWD TO THE SE NEB/NE KS BORDER REGION BY 06/12Z...AS A
BROAD SWATH OF BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SURGES NWD. THIS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...AND THE BOUNDARIES WILL
FOCUS THE SEVERE STORM THREAT THROUGH TONIGHT.

...ERN KS/SE NEB/MO/IA/IL THROUGH TONIGHT...
AS OF 12Z...A LOOSE AREA OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP SLOWLY NWD/NEWD ACROSS SE AND E CENTRAL KS. THIS CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH THE DAY IN THE ZONE OF ENHANCED WAA ON THE
NOSE OF A 40+ KT LLJ. THE DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE
AOA 1000-1500 J PER KG AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES/...ALONG WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50-60 KT...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS AND THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THROUGH
THE DAY.

UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO INCREASE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG
THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN MO AND SRN IA.
HERE...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT /MLCAPE VALUES OF
1500-2000 J PER KG/ AS A RESULT OF BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW-MID 60S BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DEEP-LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS IN THIS SAME
CORRIDOR...WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED INVOF THE RETREATING
WARM FRONT /EFFECTIVE SRH OF 250-500 M2 PER S2/. HOWEVER...A
RELATIVELY WARM EML AND RESULTANT CAP MAKES SURFACE-BASED
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION RATHER UNCERTAIN ALONG THE WARM FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AS REFLECTED BY A MULTITUDE OF SHORT-TERM AND
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL FORECASTS WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN THE WARM SECTOR. IF STORMS CAN FORM AND MOVE ALONG
THE WARM FRONT... EITHER DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OR
EVOLVING FROM THE SE FRINGE OF THE ELEVATED CONVECTION SPREADING
NEWD FROM ERN KS...THEN THERE WILL BE A DEFINITE THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS.

FARTHER E INTO IL...THE CAP WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS A LITTLE MORE PROBABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE AS NRN MO...BUT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE WELL WITHIN THE RANGE OF
SUPERCELLS. OTHERWISE...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT IN THE ZONE OF FOCUSED WAA ACROSS IA...AND IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE LOW IN SE NEB. THIS CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EWD
OVERNIGHT ACROSS IA AND NRN IL TOWARD THE SRN LAKE MI AREA...WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS A FEW
TORNADOES WITH STORMS CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT.

...CENTRAL KS INTO W CENTRAL/NW OK THIS EVENING...
SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION
ALONG THE CENTRAL KS AND W/NW OK DRYLINE THIS EVENING. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW STRIP OF WEAKENED
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ALONG THE DRYLINE...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE 22-01Z TIME FRAME. IF
CONVECTION BECOMES SUSTAINED IN THIS AREA...THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROVE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS SOME LATE THIS
EVENING AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES RAPIDLY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE LLJ. STILL...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL ALSO INCREASE
QUICKLY NEAR AND AFTER SUNSET...SO IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER OR NOT
ANY ISOLATED DIURNAL STORMS WILL EVEN SURVIVE INTO THE LATE EVENING.
GIVEN ALL OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS IF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS...WILL
INTRODUCE A CONDITIONAL RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.

..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 04/05/2010

[srainhoutx]

10% Hatched. Stay Safe Folks. Another busy week Dave.

[Dave]

10% Hatched. Stay Safe Folks. Another busy week Dave.

Looks like it. A few possible today but Wed & Thursday look even more interesting. Busy week ahead.

[Dave]

Here's your 10% hatch for today..4/5/10...(SPC Tornado Outlook - Todays Date)

[Dave]

Be back later today, working on fallsky weather site now, updating to more radar links.

[CrazyC83]

SPC nearly upgraded to moderate but the uncertainty is too great.

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 051619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT MON APR 05 2010

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF WRN OK/CNTRL KS
INTO MUCH OF THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...

A COMPLEX AND RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SCENARIO WILL
DEVELOP TODAY. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES...WHILE SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO A LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS...MS...AND OH VALLEYS. HOWEVER...OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL
DATA LEND LOW CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IN MOST AREAS.

...IL/IA/MO/NEB/KS...
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING THIS MORNING OVER
NORTHWEST MO/NORTHEAST KS IN REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
MOISTENING. THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY AS THEY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO IA. THEIR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
LIFT NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS LATER TODAY COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
AND DESTABILIZATION WILL HELP TO PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AFTER 21Z ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS/RUC/NAMKF/NMM4 ALL SUGGEST A VERY POTENT
COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...WEAK CAP...AND LARGE LOOPING
HODOGRAPHS ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NEB BORDER
TO NORTH OF IRK. THERE APPEARS TO BE A NARROW CORRIDOR WHERE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG TORNADOES. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY
REGARDING THE PROBABILITY OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. SERIOUSLY
CONSIDERED UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN THIS REGION...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT AND MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON.
JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED
WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF IA INTO NORTHERN IL TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR REPEAT CLUSTERS OF STORMS IN
THIS AREA OVERNIGHT.

...MO/IL/IND...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE NOW IN PLACE OVER THE MID MS AND
LOWER OH VALLEYS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO BE OVER 1000 J/KG. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WEAK CAP AND TRENDS IN CU
FIELDS ACROSS THE AREA SUGGEST THE RISK OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL IL INTO SOUTHERN
IND/CENTRAL KY. IF STORMS CAN INITIATE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...KS/OK...
A STRONG DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL KS INTO WESTERN OK. AT THIS TIME...ALL
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL NOT
OCCUR ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF HEATING TO WEST OF
DRYLINE...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IMMEDIATE EAST OF DRYLINE...AND A
RELATIVELY WEAK CAP DURING MAX HEATING ALL SUGGEST THAT THE RISK OF
AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO REMAINS. IF A STORM CAN FORM...LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. WILL
MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT RISK ALONG THIS AXIS FOR THIS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SCENARIO.

..HART/HURLBUT.. 04/05/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1654Z (9:54AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 051732

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 PM CDT MON APR 05 2010

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN WI/SRN LM TO OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS LOWER GREAT LAKES TO
SWRN NEW ENGLAND...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN FCST THROUGH PERIOD S OF SPLIT-FLOW
REGIME LOCATED NEAR CANADIAN BORDER. DOMINANT FEATURES WILL BE STG
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOW EVIDENT IN RAOB ANALYSES AND MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL/NRN CA AND JUST OFFSHORE PAC NW. LEADING
TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS GREAT BASIN DAY-1...FORMING CLOSED
500 MB CYCLONE OVER PORTIONS CO/WY BY 6/18Z. LOW THEN SHOULD MOVE
EWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. TRAILING
PERTURBATION WILL BECOME ELONGATED AND FRAGMENTED...SRN PORTION
MOVING SEWD ACROSS ID AND NRN GREAT BASIN REGION...THEN PHASING WITH
LEAD WAVE LATE DAY-2. RESULT BY 7/12Z SHOULD BE
HIGH-AMPLITUDE/POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH FROM MN SWWD ACROSS KS TO
NM.

AT SFC...DISORGANIZED LOW ANALYZED AT 5/15Z OVER W-CENTRAL
KS...ALONG WARM FRONT...IS FCST TO MIGRATE ENEWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE
TO NEAR E-CENTRAL PORTION KS/NEB BORDER BY BEGINNING OF
PERIOD...THEN NEWD ACROSS SERN IA TOWARD SWRN WI BY 7/12Z. THAT
PORTION OF FRONTAL ZONE NOW DRIFTING NWD AS WARM FRONT OVER WRN
KS/CO WILL REVERSE COURSE AS CYCLONE GETS BETTER ORGANIZED...THEN
MOVE SEWD TO NEAR FNB-END-CDS-HOB LINE BY 7/00Z. AT THAT
TIME...DRYLINE SHOULD INTERSECT FRONT OVER S-CENTRAL KS OR N-CENTRAL
OK...EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SWRN
OK...NWRN/W-CENTRAL TX...TO VICINITY DRT. COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE
DRYLINE FROM N-S THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NWD ACROSS PORTIONS IA...NRN IL...SRN LOWER MI...SRN
ONT...LE...AND UPSTATE NY.

...CATEGORICAL SVR AREA -- SRN LM TO RED RIVER AREA...
GREATEST FCST JUXTAPOSITION OF SUITABLE SHEAR...BUOYANCY AND
RELATIVELY DENSE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE OVER 30%
PROBABILITY AREA FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THAT DOES
NOT...HOWEVER...PRECLUDE A FEW SIGNIFICANT-SEVERE EVENTS FARTHER S
AS WELL. REASONABLY DENSE OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE ON MESOSCALE...AND
SOME SUBSET OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED CATEGORICALLY IN
SUCCEEDING DAY-1S FOR THIS PERIOD.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF SFC LOW...EWD ALONG
WARM FRONT TOWARD LM..AND SSWWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO PORTIONS ERN
KS...BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SSWWD TOWARD RED
RIVER. ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY PLUME OF 60S F SFC DEW
POINTS...DIURNAL HEATING...CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTS AND NEAR
LOW...AND FARTHER S...MORE SPORADICALLY FAVORABLE LIFT ALONG
DRYLINE. ENLARGED/ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS THROUGHOUT THIS CORRIDOR
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWS...WITH 50-65 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR...MID-LATE AFTERNOON MLCAPE GENERALLY IN 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE...AND 0-1 KM SRH RANGING FROM AROUND 300 J/KG ALONG WARM FRONT
TO 150 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

WHILE DIURNAL COVERAGE BECOMES SMALLER AND MORE CONDITIONAL IN PROGS
WITH SWD EXTENT...POTENTIAL LOCAL MAGNITUDE OF SVR IS AT LEAST AS
GREAT...WITH MORE DISCRETE STORM MODES POSSIBLE AND RELATED THREAT
FOR DAMAGING HAIL AND TORNADOES. FCST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND
FAVORABLE BUOYANCY SUGGESTS SOMEWHAT MORE CONFIDENT THREAT OF
SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS THAN MORE STRONGLY CAPPED AREAS FARTHER S AS
DISCUSSED BELOW.

...CATEGORICAL SVR -- NERN CONUS...
SFC DEW POINTS FCST TO INCREASE INTO 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THIS
REGION ALONG AND ESPECIALLY S OF WARM FRONT...WHILE SFC INSOLATION
DESTABILIZES BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAKENS CINH. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS
PA/NY...IN ENVIRONMENT OF GENERALLY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS
FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. FLOW AOA 50 KT IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT TROPOSPHERE DOWN TO ABOUT 750 MB...WITH ELONGATED 0-3 KM
HODOGRAPHS AS WELL. DESPITE EXPECTED STG WLY COMPONENT TO SFC
WINDS...JUST ENOUGH VEERING WITH HEIGHT WILL EXIST EVEN S OF WARM
FRONT TO YIELD FAVORABLE SRH FOR EITHER BOW OR SUPERCELL TSTM
ORGANIZATION. THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE 15% BULK SVR PROBABILITIES
AND ACCOMPANYING CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
DARK AS CAPE DIMINISHES WITH DIABATIC SFC COOLING.

...RED RIVER REGION TO CENTRAL TX...
LATE-AFTERNOON VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR ALSO
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING
40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE AND ROUGHLY 150-200 J/KG 0-1 KM
SRH AVAILABLE TO ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS THAT CAN FORM. DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH SWD EXTENT FROM RED
RIVER AREA ACROSS CENTRAL TX...GIVEN PRESENCE OF STG
ANTECEDENT/ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...RELATED CAPPING...AND LACK OF MORE
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL FORCING UNTIL COLD FRONT IMPINGES ON THIS AREA
AFTER SUNDOWN. SVR RISK BY DAY...THEREFORE...IS CONDITIONAL BUT
LOCALLY INTENSE...WITH COVERAGE BEING VERY LIMITED.

AFTER DARK...TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
IMPINGING UPON PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...IN
ENVIRONMENT OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
COUNTERBALANCING FACTORS WILL INCLUDE NOCTURNAL COOLING OF BOUNDARY
LAYER...HORIZONTAL DISPLACEMENT OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE/MID-UPPER
ASCENT FROM THIS REGION...AND POTENTIAL LIMITATIONS ON CONVECTIVE
DURATION/COVERAGE BY CAPPING THAT REMAINS.

..EDWARDS.. 04/05/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1802Z (11:02AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[vbhoutex]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
122 PM CDT MON APR 5 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN DALLAS COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN JASPER COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA...
POLK COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA...

* UNTIL 200 PM CDT

* AT 117 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WAUKEE...OR 16 MILES WEST OF DES MOINES...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLIVE...GRIMES...URBANDALE...WINDSOR HEIGHTS...JOHNSTON...POLK
CITY...ANKENY...ALTOONA...BONDURANT...GRANGER...SAYLORVILLE LAKE...
SAYLORVILLE...ANKENY AIRPORT...ALLEMAN...ELKHART AND MITCHELLVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 112 AND 150.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 70 AND 102.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 235 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

[vbhoutex]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
124 PM CDT MON APR 5 2010

ILC171-051900-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-100405T1900Z/
SCOTT IL-
124 PM CDT MON APR 5 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SCOTT COUNTY
UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

AT 119 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF ALSEY...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WINCHESTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WINCHESTER...ALSEY...MANCHESTER...GLASGOW...RIGGSTON AND MERRITT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

[CrazyC83]

SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 48
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT MON APR 5 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA
NORTHERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST
OF LAMONI IOWA TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN
IA/NORTHERN MO...WELL NORTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD EASTWARD. ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY ELEVATED...WITH LARGE HAIL
THE PRIMARY RISK. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE RETREATING SURFACE
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATCH AREA WITH A GREATER RISK OF
SURFACE-BASED STORMS. PORTIONS OF WATCH AREA MAY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED TO A TORNADO WATCH AT THAT TIME.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HART

[vbhoutex]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
134 PM CDT MON APR 5 2010

IAC049-099-153-051900-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-100405T1900Z/
JASPER IA-POLK IA-DALLAS IA-
134 PM CDT MON APR 5 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
DALLAS...POLK AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM
CDT...

AT 131 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT 86TH AND 62TH IN
JOHNSTON. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR JOHNSTON...OR 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF DES MOINES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.


LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANKENY...ALTOONA...BONDURANT...ANKENY AIRPORT...ALLEMAN AND
ELKHART.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

[KWT]

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see this gets upgraded to moderate in the end but much is uncertain still as others have said!

[vbhoutex]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
154 PM CDT MON APR 5 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...
DECATUR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...
SOUTHEASTERN RINGGOLD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 150 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTH OF LAMONI...OR 59 MILES SOUTH
OF DES MOINES...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS REPLACES THE
WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEON...DECATUR CITY...VAN WERT...WELDON...GARDEN GROVE...LE ROY AND
WOODBURN.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 9 AND 30.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

[KWT]

I don't think it will be long before we get some tornadoes.

I'll still put up all the warnings in the other thread to stop this thread becoming totally dominated by just warnings.

[vbhoutex]

I am only doing the states listed in this title and only warnings. I will be in and out, but will try to keep up.

[vbhoutex]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
222 PM CDT MON APR 5 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CLARKE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...
SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...
EASTERN UNION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...
SOUTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 217 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES NORTH OF MOUNT AYR...OR 54 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF DES MOINES...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OSCEOLA...THAYER...LORIMOR...MURRAY...TRURO AND NEW VIRGINIA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 28 AND 53.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING HAIL TO AT LEAST QUARTER SIZE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

[KWT]

I am only doing the states listed in this title and only warnings. I will be in and out, but will try to keep up.

Yeah thats fair enough I suppose, if you miss any most will be on the other thread,

[KWT]

New Severe Thunderstorm watch:

SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 48
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT MON APR 5 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA
NORTHERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST
OF LAMONI IOWA TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN
IA/NORTHERN MO...WELL NORTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD EASTWARD. ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY ELEVATED...WITH LARGE HAIL
THE PRIMARY RISK. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE RETREATING SURFACE
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATCH AREA WITH A GREATER RISK OF
SURFACE-BASED STORMS. PORTIONS OF WATCH AREA MAY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED TO A TORNADO WATCH AT THAT TIME.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.