Severe Storm threat- 5th-7th

[KWT]

Looks like we will be getting an extended spell of severe weather, this thread is for discussion and watches/warnings on this posible severe set-up. Here is day 1:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT MON APR 05 2010

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF WRN OK/CNTRL KS
INTO MUCH OF THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...

A COMPLEX AND RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SCENARIO WILL
DEVELOP TODAY. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES...WHILE SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO A LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS...MS...AND OH VALLEYS. HOWEVER...OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL
DATA LEND LOW CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IN MOST AREAS.

...IL/IA/MO/NEB/KS...
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING THIS MORNING OVER
NORTHWEST MO/NORTHEAST KS IN REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
MOISTENING. THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY AS THEY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO IA. THEIR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
LIFT NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS LATER TODAY COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
AND DESTABILIZATION WILL HELP TO PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AFTER 21Z ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS/RUC/NAMKF/NMM4 ALL SUGGEST A VERY POTENT
COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...WEAK CAP...AND LARGE LOOPING
HODOGRAPHS ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NEB BORDER
TO NORTH OF IRK. THERE APPEARS TO BE A NARROW CORRIDOR WHERE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG TORNADOES. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY
REGARDING THE PROBABILITY OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. SERIOUSLY
CONSIDERED UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN THIS REGION...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT AND MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON.
JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED
WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF IA INTO NORTHERN IL TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR REPEAT CLUSTERS OF STORMS IN
THIS AREA OVERNIGHT.

...MO/IL/IND...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE NOW IN PLACE OVER THE MID MS AND
LOWER OH VALLEYS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO BE OVER 1000 J/KG. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WEAK CAP AND TRENDS IN CU
FIELDS ACROSS THE AREA SUGGEST THE RISK OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL IL INTO SOUTHERN
IND/CENTRAL KY. IF STORMS CAN INITIATE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...KS/OK...
A STRONG DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL KS INTO WESTERN OK. AT THIS TIME...ALL
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL NOT
OCCUR ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF HEATING TO WEST OF
DRYLINE...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IMMEDIATE EAST OF DRYLINE...AND A
RELATIVELY WEAK CAP DURING MAX HEATING ALL SUGGEST THAT THE RISK OF
AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO REMAINS. IF A STORM CAN FORM...LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. WILL
MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT RISK ALONG THIS AXIS FOR THIS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SCENARIO.

Could yet end up being upgraded to moderate.

[KWT]

Quite a spread out risk for Day 2, with a severe threat from far north Texas right upto the Great Lakes and a small area in the far NE of the US, so a huge threat zone for day 2 according to the SPC!

SPC AC 051732

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 PM CDT MON APR 05 2010

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN WI/SRN LM TO OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS LOWER GREAT LAKES TO
SWRN NEW ENGLAND...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN FCST THROUGH PERIOD S OF SPLIT-FLOW
REGIME LOCATED NEAR CANADIAN BORDER. DOMINANT FEATURES WILL BE STG
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOW EVIDENT IN RAOB ANALYSES AND MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL/NRN CA AND JUST OFFSHORE PAC NW. LEADING
TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS GREAT BASIN DAY-1...FORMING CLOSED
500 MB CYCLONE OVER PORTIONS CO/WY BY 6/18Z. LOW THEN SHOULD MOVE
EWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. TRAILING
PERTURBATION WILL BECOME ELONGATED AND FRAGMENTED...SRN PORTION
MOVING SEWD ACROSS ID AND NRN GREAT BASIN REGION...THEN PHASING WITH
LEAD WAVE LATE DAY-2. RESULT BY 7/12Z SHOULD BE
HIGH-AMPLITUDE/POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH FROM MN SWWD ACROSS KS TO
NM.

AT SFC...DISORGANIZED LOW ANALYZED AT 5/15Z OVER W-CENTRAL
KS...ALONG WARM FRONT...IS FCST TO MIGRATE ENEWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE
TO NEAR E-CENTRAL PORTION KS/NEB BORDER BY BEGINNING OF
PERIOD...THEN NEWD ACROSS SERN IA TOWARD SWRN WI BY 7/12Z. THAT
PORTION OF FRONTAL ZONE NOW DRIFTING NWD AS WARM FRONT OVER WRN
KS/CO WILL REVERSE COURSE AS CYCLONE GETS BETTER ORGANIZED...THEN
MOVE SEWD TO NEAR FNB-END-CDS-HOB LINE BY 7/00Z. AT THAT
TIME...DRYLINE SHOULD INTERSECT FRONT OVER S-CENTRAL KS OR N-CENTRAL
OK...EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SWRN
OK...NWRN/W-CENTRAL TX...TO VICINITY DRT. COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE
DRYLINE FROM N-S THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NWD ACROSS PORTIONS IA...NRN IL...SRN LOWER MI...SRN
ONT...LE...AND UPSTATE NY.

...CATEGORICAL SVR AREA -- SRN LM TO RED RIVER AREA...
GREATEST FCST JUXTAPOSITION OF SUITABLE SHEAR...BUOYANCY AND
RELATIVELY DENSE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE OVER 30%
PROBABILITY AREA FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THAT DOES
NOT...HOWEVER...PRECLUDE A FEW SIGNIFICANT-SEVERE EVENTS FARTHER S
AS WELL. REASONABLY DENSE OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE ON MESOSCALE...AND
SOME SUBSET OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED CATEGORICALLY IN
SUCCEEDING DAY-1S FOR THIS PERIOD.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF SFC LOW...EWD ALONG
WARM FRONT TOWARD LM..AND SSWWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO PORTIONS ERN
KS...BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SSWWD TOWARD RED
RIVER. ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY PLUME OF 60S F SFC DEW
POINTS...DIURNAL HEATING...CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTS AND NEAR
LOW...AND FARTHER S...MORE SPORADICALLY FAVORABLE LIFT ALONG
DRYLINE. ENLARGED/ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS THROUGHOUT THIS CORRIDOR
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWS...WITH 50-65 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR...MID-LATE AFTERNOON MLCAPE GENERALLY IN 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE...AND 0-1 KM SRH RANGING FROM AROUND 300 J/KG ALONG WARM FRONT
TO 150 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

WHILE DIURNAL COVERAGE BECOMES SMALLER AND MORE CONDITIONAL IN PROGS
WITH SWD EXTENT...POTENTIAL LOCAL MAGNITUDE OF SVR IS AT LEAST AS
GREAT...WITH MORE DISCRETE STORM MODES POSSIBLE AND RELATED THREAT
FOR DAMAGING HAIL AND TORNADOES. FCST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND
FAVORABLE BUOYANCY SUGGESTS SOMEWHAT MORE CONFIDENT THREAT OF
SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS THAN MORE STRONGLY CAPPED AREAS FARTHER S AS
DISCUSSED BELOW.

...CATEGORICAL SVR -- NERN CONUS...
SFC DEW POINTS FCST TO INCREASE INTO 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THIS
REGION ALONG AND ESPECIALLY S OF WARM FRONT...WHILE SFC INSOLATION
DESTABILIZES BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAKENS CINH. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS
PA/NY...IN ENVIRONMENT OF GENERALLY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS
FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. FLOW AOA 50 KT IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT TROPOSPHERE DOWN TO ABOUT 750 MB...WITH ELONGATED 0-3 KM
HODOGRAPHS AS WELL. DESPITE EXPECTED STG WLY COMPONENT TO SFC
WINDS...JUST ENOUGH VEERING WITH HEIGHT WILL EXIST EVEN S OF WARM
FRONT TO YIELD FAVORABLE SRH FOR EITHER BOW OR SUPERCELL TSTM
ORGANIZATION. THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE 15% BULK SVR PROBABILITIES
AND ACCOMPANYING CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
DARK AS CAPE DIMINISHES WITH DIABATIC SFC COOLING.

...RED RIVER REGION TO CENTRAL TX...
LATE-AFTERNOON VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR ALSO
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING
40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE AND ROUGHLY 150-200 J/KG 0-1 KM
SRH AVAILABLE TO ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS THAT CAN FORM. DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH SWD EXTENT FROM RED
RIVER AREA ACROSS CENTRAL TX...GIVEN PRESENCE OF STG
ANTECEDENT/ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...RELATED CAPPING...AND LACK OF MORE
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL FORCING UNTIL COLD FRONT IMPINGES ON THIS AREA
AFTER SUNDOWN. SVR RISK BY DAY...THEREFORE...IS CONDITIONAL BUT
LOCALLY INTENSE...WITH COVERAGE BEING VERY LIMITED.

AFTER DARK...TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
IMPINGING UPON PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...IN
ENVIRONMENT OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
COUNTERBALANCING FACTORS WILL INCLUDE NOCTURNAL COOLING OF BOUNDARY
LAYER...HORIZONTAL DISPLACEMENT OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE/MID-UPPER
ASCENT FROM THIS REGION...AND POTENTIAL LIMITATIONS ON CONVECTIVE
DURATION/COVERAGE BY CAPPING THAT REMAINS.

[Bunkertor]

Ahm, today is April, 5th ... and there are 3 more threads rolling

[KWT]

Yeah, though this one is also for the extended set-up over the next few days, the Easter Thread is now redundant IMO.

It might be an idea to simply merge the other two threads together I suppose?

[RL3AO]

Different trough. Different storm. Different thread. I see no problems.

[Dave]

KWT, bringing all my posts & information over here to yours..time to consolidate into 1 main severe weather thread, otherwise we're going to have posts going every which way.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
250 PM CDT MON APR 5 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN MACOUPIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...
NORTH CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 247 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
PRAIRIETOWN...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF BETHALTO...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STAUNTON...GILLESPIE...BUNKER HILL...WILSONVILLE...BENLD...MOUNT
OLIVE...PRUETT...DORCHESTER...WILLIAMSON...WHITE CITY AND HORNSBY.

[KWT]

Yeah I suggested to just merge the two threads together and make this a super thread for the next few days!

To kick things off....

SEL9

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 49
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
250 PM CDT MON APR 5 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 250 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
SAINT LOUIS MISSOURI TO 40 MILES EAST OF MATTOON ILLINOIS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 48...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL
IL...IN VICINITY OF RETREATING SURFACE WARM FRONT. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND RATHER WEAK CAP WILL PROMOTE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES ARE LIKELY...WITH
THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO PROXIMITY OF WARM FRONT AND MOISTENING
BOUNDARY LAYER.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.

[Bunkertor]

Yeah, though this one is also for the extended set-up over the next few days, the Easter Thread is now redundant IMO.

It might be an idea to simply merge the other two threads together I suppose?

Could make sense either, but 4 Threads covering Easter and March, 5th and Il,IA etc. are to many.

[Dave]

Agreed, we are going to be covering more states than just the ones I had listed over the next few days so you've got it started lets roll with this one.

[KWT]

Also worth noting there is a moderate risk for many aspects today, such as hail, damagaing winds and also tornadoes, though a low warning for strong tornadoes as you'd expect.

Strong cell just north of the state border at the moment.

Bunkertor, yes you are right, from now on we should create a thread for whenever a storm event looks likely on the horzion and can cover all areas/states.

[Dave]

Tornado Watch #49 Graphic

[srainhoutx]

KWT, bringing all my posts & information over here to yours..time to consolidate into 1 main severe weather thread, otherwise we're going to have posts going every which way.

Agree with this as well. I would not be surprised to see a Moderate Risk (at least) tomorrow/Wednesday. Stay safe folks!

[Bunkertor]

I make a guess. The stay with slight.

[KWT]

Thanks for the graphic Dave!

Also here is the day 3 slight warning that I didn't put up earlier in the thread:

SPC AC 050721

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT MON APR 05 2010

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE WRN
GULF COASTAL REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG FULL-LATITUDE UPR TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE GRTLKS AND MS VLY REGIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. SFC LOW OVER CNTRL MO EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
NEWD INTO THE CNTRL GRTLKS AS A CDFNT SWEEPS SEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND LWR MS VLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

...MIDWEST TO THE WRN GULF COASTAL REGION...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...RENEWED
TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEWD MOVING CDFNT FROM PARTS OF IL
SWD INTO E TX BY AFTN. EARLY DAY CLOUDS/PCPN MAY DELAY/TEMPER
HEATING ACROSS THE MIDWEST...REDUCING CAPE. STRONGER BUOYANCY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND WRN GULF COASTAL REGION. PRESENCE
OF 100+ KT SSWLY MID-LVL JET ATOP SLY NEAR-SFC FLOW WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS...EVEN NWD INTO THE
LWR CAPE ENVIRONMENT WITH DMGG WINDS/HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO. ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO BACKBUILD SWD INTO THE LWR MS VLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TAIL-END OF THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE GULF
COAST. SO WHILE THE SVR THREAT WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
THE MIDWEST...A NOCTURNAL SVR THREAT MAY LINGER OVER PARTS OF LA AND
NWRN MS.

Pretty large warning zone!

[RL3AO]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT MON APR 05 2010

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN KY TO NRN MO AND
SRN WI...SWWD ACROSS IA/KS TO PORTIONS NW OK...

--- UPDATES ---
..SRN INDIANA TO WRN KY

15% PROBABILITIES EXTENDED ESEWD ALONG AND JUST S OF FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS THIS REGION. VIS SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE INCREASING
COVERAGE/DEPTH OF TCU IN THIS CORRIDOR...IN ENVIRONMENT THAT
MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY WEAK MLCINH AND
MLCAPE COMMONLY 1500-2000 J/KG FROM NOW THROUGH ABOUT 23Z. VWP AND
FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE FAVORABLE SHEAR WITH EFFECTIVE VALUES
AROUND 50 KT OVER SRN PORTIONS IL/INDIANA...TO 35-40 KT ACROSS ERN
KY. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
AND VWP/PROFILER DATA OVER NRN MO...ALSO WILL MOVE TOWARD THIS
REGION DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH RELATED SUBTLE INCREASES
LIKELY IN BOTH MID-UPPER GRADIENT FLOW AND LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION ALOFT.

..IA...NRN MO...IL

REF WWS 48...49 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM
THREAT ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION N OF SFC WARM FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS
NRN MO AND IA....AND OVER PORTIONS SRN L/ERN MO RESPECTIVELY. VERY
CONDITIONAL BUT SIGNIFICANT SVR THREAT FOR MORE SFC-BASED
SUPERCELLS...WITH ACCOMPANYING TORNADO/HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL...STILL
MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOME OF WW 48 AREA PER
PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS.

..CENTRAL KS TO NW OK

SLGT ADJUSTMENTS TO PROBABILISTIC AND CATEGORICAL LINES BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WITH DRYLINE EXPECTED TO RETREAT WWD FROM
PRESENT POSITION LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS THREAT
ALSO APPEARS STRONGLY CONDITIONAL...WHEREBY STG CAPPING WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL
TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANY SVR MODE POSSIBLE DURING
ITS LIFESPAN.

..EDWARDS.. 04/05/2010

PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1119 AM CDT MON APR 05 2010/

<cut out prev discussion>

[KWT]

I make a guess. The stay with slight.

Tough call to make I feel, it'll be rather borderline whatever call they make I feel but obviously if it looks like things aren't quite as unstable as expected in the next couple of hours then obviously they won't bother with it.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
IAC039-117-181-052045-
/O.NEW.KDMX.SV.W.0015.100405T2002Z-100405T2045Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
302 PM CDT MON APR 5 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...
NORTHWESTERN LUCAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...
SOUTHERN WARREN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 259 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OSCEOLA...OR 34 MILES SOUTH OF DES MOINES...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW VIRGINIA...LACONA...MILO...ACKWORTH AND SANDYVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 33 AND 51.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

[Dave]

LUCAS IA-CLARKE IA-WARREN IA-
317 PM CDT MON APR 5 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
WARREN...NORTHEASTERN CLARKE AND NORTHWESTERN LUCAS COUNTIES UNTIL
345 PM CDT...

AT 312 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF OSCEOLA...OR 32 MILES SOUTH
OF DES MOINES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LACONA...MILO AND SANDYVILLE.

[Bunkertor]

Ha - a beer, please.

[KWT]

After an early pluse of activity doesn't seem to be a lot going on does there?

If things don't perk up soon then we'll probably stay on slight....however I remember last night things didn't really kick off till the early eveing hours, so who knows!