ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Derek Ortt]

the end of the 2005 season was very close to la nina

[KWT]

The slow comedown continues with the El Nino, will be heading into the weak category soon enough if it carries on weakening like it is.

[cycloneye]

Daily SOI Index

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/

1-Apr-2010 +15.21
2-Apr-2010 +23.07
3-Apr-2010 +22.78
4-Apr-2010 +25.88
5-Apr-2010 +27.18
6-Apr-2010 +28.55


Look how the daily SOI index is going up since this month started now in positive territory and the 30 day index will follow.The SOI being positive is another indicator that El Nino is in it's last stage.

30 day SOI Index

[cycloneye]

El Nino is below moderate status at +0.9C according to the latest BoM data.

[KWT]

Yeah, 0.9C would make it down to an weak event at least in the weeklies. Now down to aobut the same levels we saw in summer 2009 which shut the season down really.

I think its only a matter of time before we see some quicker weakening, esp if the models are to be believed over the next 45-60 days.

[cycloneye]

The updated 30 day SOI index continues to show the rapid rise and now is at -2.2 from -4.8 that was yesterday.See the graphic three posts up from this one.

[brunota2003]

Looking at that, I wouldnt be surprised to see the 30 day SOI jump to between 5 to 10 (was thinking 5 to 7) before turning southward again for a bit.

[BigA]

With yesterday's data in, the 30 day SOI index is above 0 for the first time since October.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/

[cycloneye]

The NASA model is in line with the other dynamic models that forecast Neutral conditions by May or June.

http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/produ ... /index.cgi

[KWT]

Wow thats really agressive cycloneye, it looks like that model is going for something very similar to 1998!

[cycloneye]

The daily data has gone to positive this morning.This will reflect in the 30 day index in the next day or two.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/

8-Apr-2010 +1.07

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center Monthly update

No surprises here as they continue to forecast Neutral ENSO by the summer.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

Synopsis: El Niño is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010 and transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.

El Niño weakened to moderate strength during March 2010, with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies decreasing slightly, but still exceeding +1oC across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean at the end of the month (Fig. 1 and Fig. 2). Subsurface heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) decreased during March in response to the eastward expansion of below-average temperature anomalies at depth (100-200m) into the east-central Pacific (Fig. 4). Anomalous tropical convection remained consistent with El Niño, with enhanced convection over the central and eastern Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia (Fig. 5). The equatorial low-level easterly trade winds strengthened near the Date Line, while upper-level easterly wind anomalies became confined to the eastern Pacific. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect an ongoing, but weakening El Niño.

Nearly all models predict decreasing SST anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region through 2010, with the model spread increasing at longer lead times (Fig. 6). The majority of models predict the 3-month Niño-3.4 SST anomaly will drop below +0.5oC by May-June-July 2010, indicating a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions that will likely persist through Northern Hemisphere summer. Over the last couple months, an increasing number of models, including the latest runs from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), are predicting below-average temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region by Northern Hemisphere fall, with some forecasts meeting thresholds for La Niña. However, it should be noted that model skill is at a minimum during this time of year, and also that the majority of models continue to indicate the persistence of ENSO-neutral conditions through 2010.

Expected El Niño impacts during April-June 2010 include drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia and enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. For the contiguous United States, potential El Niño impacts include above-average precipitation for the southeastern states, while above-average temperatures are most likely for the Pacific Northwest.

[cycloneye]

Is the first time since early October that the 30 day SOI index goes to positive territory.

[cycloneye]

No change in the CFS model forecast of Neutral ENSO by June.

[brunota2003]

+2.9 for the 30 day SOI

[cycloneye]

+2.9 for the 30 day SOI

Yup,and it will keep climbing as the daily numbers continue to go up.It means that El Nino is toasted.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/

[Plant grower]

+2.9 for the 30 day SOI

Yup,and it will keep climbing as the daily numbers continue to go up.It means that El Nino is toasted.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/

By by nino hello no sleep this summer for me.

[brunota2003]

And the 90 day SOI is at -9.03 now, according to the link.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 4/12/10 update

Data from the Climate Prediction Center's 4/12/10 update indicate that El Nino 3.4 area has falled to +0.8C,from the +1.0C number it was last week meaning that El Nino days are numbered.

Last Week Numbers

Niño 4= +0.9ºC
Nino 3.4=+1.0C
Niño 3= +0.9ºC
Niño1+2= +0.1ºC


This Week Numbers

Niño 4= +1.0ºC
Nino 3.4=+0.8C
Niño 3= +0.8ºC
Niño1+2= +0.4ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

The 30 day SOI index continues to go up,now at +5.2.See the graphic seven posts above this one.