Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

[Aquawind]

Thanks for the update everyone! Sooo cold and yet sooo warm..should be an interesting season if the directional shear is weak. The GOM will warm quickly as usual and the days are getting longer so the MDR is really scarey looking with potential..

[KWT]

Thats exactly what has been suggested by some Dreeze, needs to be watched as the CFS model is also quite keen to focus the anomalies further west for the summer.

[drezee]

More records ladies and gents:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/G ... urrent.pdf
SSTs in hurricane main development region reached a historic high in Mar 2010.

SSTA in HMDR reached 1.4C, the highest in record.

Monthly OI SSTA at Hurricane Main Development Region
10-20N, 30-60W

[KWT]

That is amazing how much above average the tropics were in April, even cooling from now on will still have us coming in well above average by the start of the hurricane season...with favourable conditions as well...

[gatorcane]

SSTs continue to be well above normal for a large part of the MDR. Could see an early start to the Cape Verde season if atmospheric conditions also become favorable for tropical storm formation. That is a big IF of course:

2010, Apr. 5:


Here is 2009 at this time:

[Blown Away]

The low pressures in the Atlantic have helped keep the MDR waters warm. If the season is active I think we will see many storms gain enough latitude, due to the low pressures, to miss the Caribbean/CONUS. If the storm numbers are high I'm sure we will see a few threaten land.

[HURAKAN]

2005 and 2010 are very similar, although 2010 is even warmer.

[Blown Away]

The 2010 MDR is warmer than 2005, the big difference is the cool 2010 GOM, but we all know come August the GOM will be boiling. It's clear the GOM is beginning to warm, a few weeks ago there were hints the loop current was warming, but in your latest shot the loop is warming up. I think we will have many storms to follow this hurricane season.

[KWT]

The important thing is whilst the gulf is cooler then average, the loop current is already above average despite a cold winter, and it was the loop current that really caused the major damage in 2005.

[gatorcane]

We can see the SSTs around the FL peninsula have already warmed substantially in just the past couple of weeks (since the persistent troughiness has finally lifted out of Eastern North America).

Note the warmer SSTs right around the west coast of FL, indicating that there have been many days of sun and ridging to warm up those SSTs.

[cycloneye]

Loop current warming things a little bit in the parts of the GOM.Also,part of the Bay of Campeche is starting to warm.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

This whole week of warm weather and the cold front that isn't so cold traversing the Gulf now are quickly leading to a gulf warm up. The next week will be adding to the heat too. It will be no time at all before the gulf is "normal" for this time of year. In fact, due to the extra warm loop current, it will probably be well above normal come hurricane season.

water temps alone are supporting a 2005-like year. -but of course there are many other factors to consider.

If we do have numbers anywhere near that analog year, hopefully they will produce many many fish storms. That could be likely, since the Bermuda High, if it is weak as some are suggesting it will be by then, will allow them to scoot up north over the open Atlantic between it and the Azores High.

However, I'm sure we will have plenty of home grown gulf and caribbean systems to contend with this year too.

Hang on to yer hats folks, this could be a busy one!

[KWT]

The thing that needs to be remembered is even an average Gulf is easily capable of supporting a cat-4/5 in the deeper parts of the Gulf, its really only the coastal waters where cooler temps could really hurt, esp towards the start/end of a season.

That Loop current has an impressive signature thats for sure!

[drezee]

The warm water is pressing W like a champ!!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=CDT

[jinftl]

What a difference a week can make.....Gulf sst on 4/9 (pic 1) vs. Gulf sst on 4/2 (pic 2):

[cycloneye]

There has been some cooling in the Caribbean in only a few days due to the moderate to strong trade winds that are blowing at this time.

April 1 2010



April 9 2010

[jinftl]

Comparing sst in the Gulf from April 12, 2010 to just 12 days ago on April...some areas have risen 2-3 Celsius in that short amount of time! First 78F deg water (26C) making its appearance around the FL Keys, part of the Loop Current and in the southern Bay of Campeche.

[SouthFloridawx]

[gatorcane]

Looking at a comparison of the hyper-active year of 2005 and this year, SSTs continue to run warmer in the Atlantic now then 2005. In fact it seems if you look at the world view SSTs are generally running warmer. If you make a comparison to the relatively inactive year last year, there really is no comparison.

2010:


2005 at this time:


2009 at this time:

[jinftl]

Agree, no matter how you slice and dice it, the basin overall is much warmer....with the exception of the Gulf, which had been quite cold but is warming up pretty quickly.....than last year. That is true both of actual sst and the depth of 26C water...the water is not only warmer at the surface, but that warmth extends down to a deeper depth than a year ago.

Bit disturbing how warm the water is already in the NW Caribbean between Central America and Jamaica....that area is notorious for its ability to provide high octane fuel (measured by the TCHP), especially from peak season to the end of November. It's getting an early start with sst's at or above 82F in some places already.


SSTs this year vs. last year:






One of the most noteable things is the depth of warm water (26C) now vs. last year: