Severe Storm threat- 5th-7th

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1029 AM CDT WED APR 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1015 AM HAIL 2 NW GUADALUPE RIVER ST 29.90N 98.54W
04/07/2010 M1.50 INCH KENDALL TX COCORAHS

CAR DAMAGE CAUSED BY PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0282
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CDT WED APR 07 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO THROUGH SRN AND CNTRL IL AND WRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 071754Z - 072030Z

THUNDERSTORM INTENSITIES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS
CONVECTION DEVELOPS EWD THROUGH THE MID-MS AND OH VALLEYS. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN WRN IL SSWWD THROUGH SERN
MO...NRN AR AND ERN TX. WARM FRONT STRETCHES EWD FROM THE LOW
THROUGH NRN IL...NWRN IND AND SRN LOWER MI. SATELLITE TRENDS
INDICATE A FEW BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE PRE-FRONTAL MULTI-LAYER
CLOUD DECK CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED NEAR THE MO/IL BORDER.
MLCAPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOB 1000 J/KG DUE TO MODEST LAPSE RATES
AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS WITHIN THE WEAKLY
CAPPED WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. SWLY BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL
PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...WIND PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT
UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 150 M2/S2.
SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZES WITH BOTH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS LIKELY.

..DIAL.. 04/07/2010


ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

[Dave]

Just pulled same info srain...got me by seconds.

Current stats for Milan

Data as of: 2:07 PM

Temperature: 71 F
Heat Index: 77°F
Humidity: 57%
Dew Point: 56°F
Avg Wind: 15 SSW
Pressure: 29.85"

Going to make a quick run to a neighboring town but will be back in a couple hours from one of 3 locations.

[srainhoutx]

No problem Dave. Things should be popping by the time you return.

[KWT]

Yet another pretty decent sized slight risk today and there is quite a big tornado watch zone out as well, so plenty to watch out for over the next 12hrs or so, then the risk transfers eastwards towards the east coast for Thursday.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0283
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CDT WED APR 07 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...SRN AND ERN AR WRN TN...AND EXTREME NWRN
MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 071829Z - 072100Z

STORM INTENSITIES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NERN TX NRN LA...AR AND EVENTUALLY WRN TN. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN WRN IL SWWD THROUGH NWRN
AR INTO NERN AND ERN TX. A MOIST AXIS WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS HAS
ADVECTED NWD THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN MODERATED BY WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE LOW 70S. SPECIAL 18Z RAOB FROM
LITTLE ROCK SHOWS MODEST LAPSE RATES AND AN INVERSION PRESENT JUST
ABOVE 700 MB. HOWEVER...FORCING ALONG EWD MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE
AUGMENTED BY APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL
WIND PROFILES ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT DEEP SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS.

..DIAL.. 04/07/2010


ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

[srainhoutx]

Near Dave...



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 61
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM CDT WED APR 7 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
LAFAYETTE INDIANA TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF POPLAR BLUFF
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IL AND EASTERN MO. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON INTO PARTS OF WESTERN IND
AND WESTERN KY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND RETURNING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE
STORMS...WHILE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES PROMOTE
SUPERCELL/BOW STRUCTURES IN STORMS. LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN
THREAT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

[Dave]

Thanks Steve for the tornado watch. On a county system now, no radar loaded to this one, but will be on my main in about an hour. Fun evening coming our way it looks like.

[srainhoutx]

No problem Dave. Busy evening...



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 62
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT WED APR 7 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE
NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF
DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF LONGVIEW
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 61...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL AR INTO NORTHEAST TX. CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT HAVE LIMITED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND RETURNING MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
CAPE FOR A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED INTO A SQUALL
LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.

[KWT]

Certainly looks interesting for you Dave it has to be said, will be interesting to see how today plays out really!

Hail still looks like being the main threat today but isolated tornadoes certainly are possible, ust hope we don't get tennis ball hail like yesterday!

[srainhoutx]

I have to step out for an hour. I see Jason lurking.

[KWT]

A decent number of severe thunderstorm warnings coming out now, and importantly there are a few popping up in the tornado watch zone as well.

[vbhoutex]

Morning Dave. Nice storm firing near Junction in W TX already. The $64,000.00 question is will the cap break in TX today ahead of the front.

So far it appears that the Texas cap is pretty solid, at least in SE TX. Looks like the severe in W TX this am was almost an anamoly.

[KWT]

There are some severe storms close to the far NE Texas but on the other side of the AR border. Still can't rule anything out, also I'll change the title to reflect the chances of severe weather Thursday as the whole area finally is ejected eastwards into the Atlantic.

[srainhoutx]

Morning Dave. Nice storm firing near Junction in W TX already. The $64,000.00 question is will the cap break in TX today ahead of the front.

So far it appears that the Texas cap is pretty solid, at least in SE TX. Looks like the severe in W TX this am was almost an anamoly.

Yeah David, it does appear the cap is holding for now. I have noticed a bit of a sea breeze moving N though, and that may be the trigger needed in our neck of the woods. For Dave's part of the world...



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0284
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 PM CDT WED APR 07 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN AND ERN IL...WRN IN AND EXTREME WRN
KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 61...

VALID 072015Z - 072215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 61 CONTINUES.

THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS.

STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AN EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM
SERN MO THROUGH NERN IL. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR AND NEAR WARM FRONT ACROSS NERN IL INTO NRN IND.
DIABATIC WARMING HAS BOOSTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 70S
ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN IL...RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG
MLCAPE. INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED FARTHER EAST INTO IND
WHERE LOW CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED. STORMS REMAIN MORE DISCRETE ALONG
THE NRN END OF THE LINE ACROSS NERN IL INTO NWRN IND. SOME OF THESE
STORMS ARE APPROACHING THE WARM FRONT WHERE THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW IS
BACKED RESULTING IN LARGER LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS THAN FARTHER SOUTH.
THESE STORMS MAY HAVE A WINDOW TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THEY
INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE DEEPER
INTO THE COOL AIR NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. FARTHER SOUTH...DEEP LAYER
WIND PROFILES ARE MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT STRONG BULK SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
AND SUPERCELLS.

..DIAL.. 04/07/2010


ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

[Bunkertor]

[Dave]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
346 PM CDT WED APR 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
MARION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 341 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM PATOKA TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SHATTUC...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING
WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SALEM...FAIRMAN...CENTRAL CITY...SANDOVAL...ODIN...KINMUNDY...
FARINA...OMEGA...STEPHEN FORBES STATE PARK...JUNCTION CITY...ST.
PAUL...SELMAVILLE...ST. PETER...TONTI...ALMA...BRUBAKER AND LA
CLEDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA

[Dave]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
401 PM CDT WED APR 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 358 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTH OF GREENVILLE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SACO...BUCKHORN AND MARQUAND.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
401 PM CDT WED APR 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL CLAY COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 402 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BEECH GROVE...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PARAGOULD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MARMADUKE...PARAGOULD AND RECTOR.