Sun AM 91L Map and Comments.

[Scott_inVA]

No "hurricane models" run on 91L so I've used Globals from 0Z.
AVN (GFS) takes a wave through Bahamas and into S FL. UKie is aggressive, NOGAPS rides Ridge off shore and heads to east coast as ridge retros. What a mess! We'll see.

Perhaps of more ominous interest is the GFS depiction of the GOM :o

Here's the 102 Hr:
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi?time=2003081000&field=950mb+Vorticity&hour=102hr

Note the storm coming into TX/LA border. That is *NOT* 91L. Other globals are not as aggressive with this GOMer system (yet?). GFS also depicts former Invest 99 continuing to develop and move west.

Interesting week ahead.

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

Scott

[vbhoutex]

Definitely could be an interesting week for all of us!

The GOM possibility is enhanced by the fact a huge MCS moved offshore of the Hou/Gal area yesterday evening after pounding us and has not dissipated yet. Could this be what the models are picking up on. I'm still not sure it is the remnants of 90L they are grabbing on to even though it is still lingering around S of Cuba. If anything makes it into the GOM from the E after crossing FL we are going to have to watch it closely because the consitent blocking pattern we have had is starting to move out to the NW now.

[wxman57]

Also note the 30-40kt southerly winds at 300mb predicted by the GFS over the central and western Gulf associated with that blob of moisture. Not ideal for tropical development, but it could bring us some needed rain in southeast Texas next Wed-Fri.

[Scott_inVA]

Also note the 30-40kt southerly winds at 300mb predicted by the GFS over the central and western Gulf associated with that blob of moisture. Not ideal for tropical development, but it could bring us some needed rain in southeast Texas next Wed-Fri.

Indeed. This is of note b/c GFS spins this up in 24 hrs in a sheared environment. GFS remains outlier so far on this event.

Concerning your needed rain...send empty buckets and I'll contribute. 6.2" so far in Aug...avg = 3.1" If we do get a TC in here, I don't want to imagine what could happen.

Scott

[GulfBreezer]

I am with you regarding the rain Scott! We have had well over 60" of rain this year and probably half of our total rf has been in the last month. If we were to get a tropical system of any kind right now, we have no place for the water to go! It would indeed be a mess! :o

[Steve H.]

Yes, we don't need the rain here!! But we put the Florida Storm Deflector Shield (FSDS) up, so 91L won't develop if/until it gets across Florida into the GOM. Cheers!

[Steve H.]

Here's a good discussion concerning the overall pattern. Is interesting for everyone from the SE coast to Texas.

WED-SAT...MEAN RETROGRESSION CONTINUES INTO THE MED RANGE. THIS WILL
BACK THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO AN INCREASING EASTERLY COMPONENT AS ATLC
AND GREAT LAKES SFC HIGHS CONGEAL INTO ONE EXPANSIVE HIGH WELL TO
THE NORTH OF FL. PRECIP REGIME WILL SHIFT TWD HIGHER POPS WWD AND
A LOWER COVG NIGHTTIME/MORNING REGIME OVER OUR CWA...WHICH WILL
ALLOW ECFL TO DRY OUT - AT LEAST FOR WED. THEREAFTER THE FORECAST
BECOMES PROBLEMATIC AS THE ENTIRE SUITE OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWS SFC-H85 LOW PRES MOVING WWD ACROSS THE SARGASSO SEA WHILST THE
DLM ATLC RIDGE TO ITS NORTH CONTINUES TO BUILD WWD...BULLDOZING THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE OMNIPRESENT MID/UPPER TROUGH FROM LAST WEEK
INTO MS VALLEY AND THEN TX. THE MEAN RETROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND
WWD-BUILDING DLM RIDGE...SUGGESTS THAT ANY LOW LEVEL DEVELOPMENT
WOULD COME WWD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS/FL. ONE PROBLEM IS THAT BEING
UNDER A TUTT TYPE H25 LOW...SFC DEVELOPMENT UNDER THIS SCENARIO CAN
BE MESSY AND/OR NOT PAN OUT AS GUIDANCE MIGHT SUGGEST.

WHAT IS CURRENTLY OUT THERE ATTM IS A WEAK SFC LOW WHICH SLIPPED
SOUTH INTO A BREACH IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BTWN 45-50W. THE BREACH
PINCHED INTO A TUTT LOW AND IS NOW RETROGRADING WWD BENEATH THE WEST
ATLC PORTION OF THE RIDGE...CARRYING THE SFC LOW WITH IT ON IT'S
NORTH SIDE. OBVIOUS SFC LOW NR 26N54W...SHEARED BY THE EASTERLIES ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE TUTT...AND A MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE TUTT
LOW CENTER NEAR 23N55W.

WITH THE H50 RIDGE EXPANDING WWD...THE EVOLUTION OF THE H25 LOW...
WHICH THE GLOBALS ARE CONSISTENT IN PULLING BACK SW-WARD INTO THE
CARIB...WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING WHAT FORM/STRENGTH THE SYS WILL
HAVE. BUT EXPECT AT LEAST AN INVERTED TROUGH TO BE APPROACHING THE
BAHAMAS AND FL LATER THIS WEEK (WED/THU). WE HAVE SEVERAL DAYS TO
MONITOR WHAT MAY OR MAY NOT DEVELOP TO OUR EAST. ONCE AGAIN...IN
SITUATIONS SUCH AS THIS...IT IS AN EXCELLENT TIME FOR THOSE WHO HAVE
NOT YET UPDATED THEIR HURRICANE SUPPLY KIT AND ACTION PLAN TO DO SO
EARLY IN CASE ANY DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE TAKE PLACE.

[southerngale]

So, is the GFS developing that little area off the Texas coast or something entirely different?

[Stormsfury]

So, is the GFS developing that little area off the Texas coast or something entirely different?

Something different.

[southerngale]

Thanks SF

[Scott_inVA]

Thanks SF

GFS brings the current disturbance off TX and brings it back to TX/LA border.

The ATL Invest isn't the same thing. Some models have progged that to cross S FL and get into GOM by the weekend.

Scott

[Scott_inVA]

Model Map updated 3PM EDT to include 12Z hurr models. the Globals are 0Z hence the different initialization points.

DSHP does bring it to 74 knots @ 96 hrs. Hmmmm....

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

Scott
WREL Radio
Lexington, VA

[southerngale]

Thanks SF

GFS brings the current disturbance off TX and brings it back to TX/LA border.

The ATL Invest isn't the same thing. Some models have progged that to cross S FL and get into GOM by the weekend.

Scott

Thanks Scott

I guess things really are starting to heat up!

[Stormsfury]

As usual, good job, Scott.

Some of the 12z global runs are out. Take a look at the 12z UKMET thread I started and let me have an opinion on what you think.

SF