Caribbean - Central America Weather

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Gustywind
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#4181 Postby Gustywind » Tue Apr 06, 2010 5:33 am

Good morning my friends :)

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 060943
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST TUE APR 6 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE CORE OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET WITH 90
KNOTS OF WIND LIES OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE FIRST HAS JUST PASSED. THE SECOND
SHOULD PASS MID-MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AND THE THIRD LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A BREAK IN THE JET WILL SIGNAL RIDGING OVER THE AREA...BUT
THE JET WILL RE-FORM JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THE
JET CORE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA AGAIN BY THE FOLLOWING
THURSDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS.

AT MID LEVELS...A TROUGH FROM A RECEDING LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH LITTLE MOISTURE IS PRESENT AT MID LEVELS
UNTIL THEN. THERE IS A MOISTURE BREAK ON SUNDAY AND THEN MID-
LEVELS MOISTEN UP CONSIDERABLY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORMS MONDAY
BUT DOES NOT REACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THE FOLLOWING FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES COOL. BANDS OF MOISTURE ARE SENDING SHOWERS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY
LESS THAN ONE TENTH INCH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC UNTIL WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE FROM THERE TO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE THEN
MOVES QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER HIGH OVER MISSISSIPPI MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH CAN BE
SEEN OVER HAITI OVER NEXT WEEKEND AND PUERTO RICO BY THE FOLLOWING
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS BRINGING BANDS OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE AREA AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
PUSHING ONSHORE OVER PUERTO RICO'S NORTHERN COAST. SOME SHOWERS
HAVE ALSO BEEN NOTED OVER SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT CROIX. UP TO 5 AM
AMOUNTS HAD BEEN LESS THAN 5 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ANYWHERE...BUT HEAVIER
SHOWERS HAVE COME ON SHORE SINCE. THE NAM HAS HAD A HEALTHY HANDLE
ON THIS DEVELOPMENT AND IS SHOWING MUCH DRIER AIR ENTERING THE
ISLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT BAND OF MOISTURE HEADS
TOWARD THE MONA CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY AND THE FOLLOWING BAND MOVES
THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THEN PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY.
SHORT WAVES TRAVELING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP THE
DYNAMICS SOME...BUT SHOWERS ARE SHALLOW AND MOISTURE IS GENERALLY
LACKING IN THE MID LEVELS...EXCEPT BRIEFLY ON FRIDAY AND THEN NEXT
WEEK. THE SHORT WAVE TODAY MAY ENHANCE THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...YIELDING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.AVIATION...
VCSH OR PASSING SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS TJSJ..TJBQ...TIST
AND TNCM THROUGH 06/14Z...RESULTING IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR...BUT
OVERALL...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO WHERE MVFR CIGS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE FOUND FROM AROUND 06/17Z TO
06/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL GO UP THEN AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
PASSAGES BEGINNING THURSDAY. THE WAVE WATCH SHOWS PERIOD AROUND 6
SECONDS SO WAVES COULD BE QUITE STEEP AND ROUGH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 72 86 74 / 40 20 30 30
STT 85 74 86 76 / 30 20 20 20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

37/12
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#4182 Postby Gustywind » Tue Apr 06, 2010 5:34 am

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 060849
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 AM AST TUE APR 6 2010

SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTED THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...PRODUCING MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS WERE MOVING TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS. COASTAL TEMPERATURES
REMAINED IN THE MID 70S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE IT MAINTAINS LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE TERRITORY THIS MORNING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS.

$$
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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica Weather Thread

#4183 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 06, 2010 12:42 pm

If GFS model is right,the Eastern Caribbean should get beneficial rains starting by Wednesday of next week.Lets see if it comes to fruitition.

Image

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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica Weather Thread

#4184 Postby Macrocane » Tue Apr 06, 2010 1:24 pm

:uarrow: Could they be the first tropical waves of the season? I think that we are going to have the first 2 or 3 waves by the end of April though I could be wrong and maybe the first wave will form in May, let's wait and see.
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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica Weather Thread

#4185 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 06, 2010 2:59 pm

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

It looks like what I showed at above post about models bringing rainfall to the islands starting by Wednesday of next week and ending at least for now the dry spell is mentioned at the afternoon discussion.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
350 PM AST TUE APR 6 2010

.SYNOPSIS...ELONGATED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PULL TO THE
NORTHEAST TOMORROW AND BE REPLACED BY MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON
THU THAT SHOULD HOLD THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS
WILL SHIFT EAST TOMORROW WITH A TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT
AND A STRENGHTENING OF THE TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AHEAD OF S/W TROUGH NOW OVER ERN CUBA AND
JAMAICA. THIS S/W RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER PR THIS EVENING WITH A
RAPID DISSIPATION OF THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS. MODELS SHOW S/W TROUGH OVR
ERN CUBA AND JAMAICA RACING EWD OVERNIGHT WITH AXIS OVR PR AT 12Z
TOMORROW. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE NOT VERY EMPHATIC WITH PRECIP
TOMORROW MORNING AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY WITH ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INDICATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING AS SEEN IN PWAT
AND K INDEX TIME SERIES PLOT. FOR TONIGHT...KEPT ISOLD POPS OVR
WATERS BUT NONE OVER LAND.

MID UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD ON THU WITH MODELS MAINTAINING A
DECENT CAP THROUGH FRI. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
SHIFTING SFC HIGH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TRADE WINDS THAT
SHOULD LIMIT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED AND TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING
CYCLE. CAP WEAKENS/LIFTS TO 700 MB FRI WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY.

BY SAT AFTERNOON...MODELS INDICATE COMPLETE EROSION OF THE MID
LEVEL CAP AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND REGION START
BECOMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
NW ATLC. RELAXATION OF THE PRES GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WITH SCT DEEP CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR SAT AND SUN.
STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL STILL BE LACKING FOR ANY LONG LASTING
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL
&&

MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED SFC TROF PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE
GREATER ANTILLES NEXT WEEK WITH THE 12Z ECMWF MUCH FASTER THAN
THE GFS WITH THE ONSET OF THIS PRESSURE PATTERN. EUROPEAN ALSO
SHOWS MID-UPPER TROF DEEPENING ACROSS THE WRN ATLC AND EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION INTO A CUTOFF LOW NW OF THE AREA. GFES MEANS NOT AS
AGRESSIVE MAINTANING JUST AN OPEN TROF BUT SOME GFS MEMBERS ARE
ALSO INDICATING EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
DEFINITELY SOME DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN TIMING AND EVOLUTION
OF THIS PATTERN THAT WILL STILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED OUT BUT A
SITUATION TO MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
EUROPEAN SOLUTION WOULD BE ONE FOR HEAVY LONG LASTING FLASH
FLOODING RAINS. THE LATEST MJO ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE MJO HAS
BEEN PROPAGATING EWD ACROSS THE WESTERN PACIFIC WITH DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS INDICATING INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. SO THE BASIC
TREND HERE IS FOR MUCH WETTER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK THAN WE HAD
RECENTLY EXPERIENCED.


.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJPS AND TJMZ THROUGH 06/23Z IN A VCSH OR PASSING SHRA. PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN A ENE LLVL WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE VI...TJSJ AND TJBQ AFT
07/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...SCEC STATEMENTS DUE TO INCREASING WINDS. SCA NOW IN
EFFECT FOR AMZ710 DUE TO 6-8 FT EASTERLY WIND WAVES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE INCREASING THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND THICK
CLOUD COVER HAVE DEFINITELY HELPED IN THE FIRE WX SITUATION THE
LAST TWO DAYS. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING WINDS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL RESULT IN DRYING OF THE FUELS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE
POOR VEGETATIVE HEALTH ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN AND IN ST.
CROIX STILL POSES A FIRE DANGER THREAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...AS OF 3 PM AST...A RECORD 0.47 INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT THE
LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN. THIS SURPASSED
THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 0.28 INCHES THAT FELL ON APRIL 6 2002.

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Re: Caribbean / CA Weather Thread=Dry pattern breaks next week?

#4186 Postby abajan » Tue Apr 06, 2010 8:12 pm

The drought certainly seems to be coming to an end. We had some showers this morning in Barbados and more showers, some heavy, are expected tomorrow.
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Re: Caribbean / CA Weather Thread=Dry pattern breaks next week?

#4187 Postby tropicana » Tue Apr 06, 2010 8:30 pm

Regional Weather Summary
Tue Apr 06 2010

Today's Highs and rain (if any)

Piarco, Trinidad 34.9C 95F
Crown Point, Tobago 32.0C 90F
Point Salines, Grenada 30.5C 87F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 31.3C 88F trace
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 31.4C 88F 46.4mm
Hewanorra, St Lucia 31.9C 90F 0.6mm
Vigie, St Lucia 29.9C 86F 10.7mm
Canefield, Dominica 29.1C 84F 0.7mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 30.3C 86F 16.8mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 32.1C 90F
Golden Rock, St Kitts 28.9C 84F
VC Bird, Antigua 29.6C 85F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 28.3C 83F 11mm ** RECORD **

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 29.4C 85F
Norman Manley, Jamaica 31.7C 89F
Sangster, Montego Bay, Jamaica 31.2C 88F
Nassau, Bahamas 27.2C 81F
Havana, Cuba 29.9C 86F
Hamilton, Bermuda 21.9C 72F
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Re: Caribbean / CA Weather Thread=Dry pattern breaks next week?

#4188 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 06, 2010 8:34 pm

Justin,maybe the words and rain (if any) you use daily will not have to if the models are right about the dry pattern breaking.
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Re: Caribbean / CA Weather Thread=Dry pattern breaks next week?

#4189 Postby tropicana » Tue Apr 06, 2010 8:43 pm

cycloneye wrote:Justin,maybe the words and rain (if any) you use daily will not have to if the models are right about the dry pattern breaking.



Yeah Luis! Maybe its finally gonna break down and the islands are gonna get some prolonged and substantial rains next week (keeping fingers crossed for all of the islands) It seems there were some pretty heavy showers on St Vincent today, as well as Martinque and in Puerto Rico too! And some showers also in Barbados thanks to that relaible report from abajan. No greater report than a ground report live from a correspondent. :D

Just as a side note, Niagara Falls got it's first thunderstorm of the season this afternoon around 3pm, it was very heavy for a time. Much of the area lost power for 90 minutes during the storm. Quite spooky. Such long outages are quite rare. A warm frontal system is responsible and tonight, there is very dense fog, visibility is very poor, hope i can see my way home at 11pm tonight haaa
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#4190 Postby Gustywind » Tue Apr 06, 2010 9:27 pm

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Re: Caribbean / CA Weather Thread=Dry pattern breaks next week?

#4191 Postby Macrocane » Tue Apr 06, 2010 10:05 pm

Since saturday the moisture has increased in El salvador and the maximum temperatures have been lower than in the previous 3 weeks. Some showers and thunderstorms have occured since saturday. This is the accmulated rainfall from Saturday to Monday in some places of El Salvador:

Acajutla (west coast) 7 mm/0.28 inches
Santa Ana 11 mm/0.43 inches
San Salvador 20 mm/0.79 inches
Perquin (Northeast El Salvador) 80 mm/3.15 inches
La Union (Gulf of Fonseca) 20 mm/0.79 inches

The forecasters said that April was going to be wettest than normal because of El Niño and if this trend continues it will verify as some places have almost reached the average rainfall for April in just a few days.
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Re: Caribbean / CA Weather Thread=Dry pattern breaks next week?

#4192 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 07, 2010 5:48 am

Good morning to all.The wetter pattern continues to be forecast for next week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
620 AM AST WED APR 7 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A FAST MOVING...BUT WEAKENING SHORT WAVE...WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN 07/12-15Z.
A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING ENDING THE
PRESENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT JET OVER THE AREA. THE JET WILL RE-FORM
NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND ANOTHER TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH ON TUESDAY. FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST WILL RECEDE AND A HIGH JUST EAST OF GEORGIA WILL MOVE
EAST PASSING NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND BUILDING NORTHEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER WHICH HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS WILL BE
SEEN BRIEFLY ON FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF GEORGIA WILL MOVE
EAST...PASSING NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
TONIGHT. A SECOND FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT STALL OVER WESTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS IT BEGINS TO
RETREAT A TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FORM IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY THERE. THE MOISTURE WILL DRIFT EAST
SLOWLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...INCREASING RAIN AMOUNTS AND
FREQUENCY IN THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY WILL DRIFT UP TO VIRGINIA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN BACK TOWARD THE WEST AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 WEST INTO THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC SENDING A
COLD FRONT BACK OVER PUERTO RICO POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE LESS PREVALENT OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF
PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING...BUT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF AS MUCH AS
ONE HALF INCH IN RIO GRANDE FELL OVER NIGHT. THIS WAS DUE TO
SEVERAL FACTORS...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL JET...AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE AND AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA. THE SHORT WAVE THAT IS PASSING WILL COME
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING...BUT A SUBSEQUENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE ALOFT AT 300 MB AT
08/06Z AND IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE PASSING LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT. TIMING IN THE NAM MAY NOT BE AS ACCURATE AS THE GFS
SINCE THE NAM HAD 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE 07/00Z RUN AND 25 KNOT
WINDS IN THE 07/06Z RUN THAT ARE 10 TO 15 KNOTS TOO HIGH AS
VERIFIED BY LOCAL SOUNDING AND RADAR DATA. ANOTHER DIVERGENCE
MAXIMUM AT 300 MB OCCURS AT 09/06Z AND MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR PULSE
OF MOISTURE/SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO. THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MAY BE
AFFECTED 3 TO 6 HOURS EARLIER ON THIS ONE AS WINDS AT 850 TURN
FROM EAST NORTHEAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST FROM 08/15Z TO 09/06Z IN THE
AREA. EASTERLY FLOW AT 850 MB CONTINUES TO CARRY PATCHES OF
MOISTURE THAT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...BUT AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL CREATE TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THIS MOISTURE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WHILE MOVING EAST.
FINALLY...ACCORDING TO THE GFS...BY DAY 10 ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTH OVER THE AREA PROLONGING THE RAINY PERIOD BEGUN EARLIER
IN THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF FLOODING
COULD OCCUR BUT EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT NEXT WEEK WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER THAT THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCAL TAFS SITES
THROUGH 08/08Z. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN ENE LLVL WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE USVI...TJSJ AND TJBQ AFT 07/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 7 FEET IN THE OUTER ATLANTIC
WATERS TODAY AND INTO THE PASSAGES TONIGHT...CAUSING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES TO BE RAISED OVER THE AREA. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOST AREAS HAVE HAD WETTING RAINS IN THE LAST 48
HOURS. THOSE THAT HAVE NOT REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO LOWER THRESHOLDS
FOR IGNITION OF WILD FIRES. THIS SITUATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
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Re: Caribbean / CA Weather Thread=Dry pattern breaks next week?

#4193 Postby Macrocane » Wed Apr 07, 2010 9:38 am

Though the maximum temperatures have been lower than normal since saturday the minimum temperatures this morning were above average in Central America:

Santa Ana, El Salvador 22.1°C/71.8°F
San Salvador, El Salvador 22°C/71.6°F
San Miguel, El Salvador 26.1°C/79°F
Belize, Belize 25°C/77°F
Guatemala, Guatemala 18°C/64°F
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 21°C/70°F
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C/75°F
San Jose, Costa Rica 19°C/66°F
Panama city, Panama 25°C/77°F
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Re: Caribbean / CA Weather Thread=Dry pattern breaks next week?

#4194 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 07, 2010 12:29 pm

The models continue to show the rainy pattern for next week.

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Re: Caribbean / CA Weather Thread=Dry pattern breaks next week?

#4195 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 07, 2010 1:41 pm

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

Some uncertainty remains on how the rainy event of next week for the Eastern Caribbean will unfold but I am sure that the fine tuning proccess will occur in the next few days.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
210 PM AST WED APR 7 2010

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE PATTERN THROUGH FRI. RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS
THE WRN ATLC GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GOES WV SOUNDERS SHOW PLENTY
OF SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SUBSIDENCE PATTERN
SHOULD LAST THROUGH FRI KEEPING THINGS FAIRLY DRY. WEAKENING
RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEKEND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUBSIDENCE CAP TO
WEAKEN/LIFT AND ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLY IN THE WEST.

MODELS STILL ADVERTISING A WETTER UNSETTLED PERIOD MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROF PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AND A DEEP
MID-UPPER TROF TO THE WEST. EURO/GFS STILL SHOW SIG DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF SFC/UPPER LVL FEATURES. DETAILS WILL
STILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED OUT BY THE MODELS IN THE COMING DAYS.
MJO PROGNOSIS FROM STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
STRONG NEGATIVE 200 MB VELOCITY ANOMALIES NEXT WEEK CORRESPONDING
TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. BASIC TREND HERE IS FOR A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SOMEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN BUT AGAIN DETAILS STILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN ATTM.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE
LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN A PREVAILING ENE LLVL WIND
FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KTS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL THROUGH 07/23Z...WHICH MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND A VCSH NEAR TJMZ AND TJPS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
VCSH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ...AND ALL THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM 08/04Z-08/14Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN AROUND 7 FT OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS DUE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS. SEAS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SAT.

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Re: Caribbean / CA Weather Thread=Dry pattern breaks next week?

#4196 Postby tropicana » Wed Apr 07, 2010 7:35 pm

woohoo look at the Netherland Antillean rainfall today...as well as the rains on St Lucia

Regional Weather Summary
Wed Apr 07 2010

Today's Highs and rain (if any)

Piarco, Trinidad 35.7C 96F **44th cons. day at or over 33.7C**
Crown Point, Tobago 31.9C 90F
Point Salines, Grenada 30.5C 87F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.4C 86F 3mm
Rockley, Barbados 29.9C 86F 1.3mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 29.5C 85F 0.5mm
Hewanorra, St Lucia 27.1C 81F 47.1mm
Vigie, St Lucia 28.1C 82F 2.3mm
Canefield, Dominica 30.2C 86F trace
Melville Hall, Domincia 27.4C 81F 7mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 29.2C 85F 2.6mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 29.1C 84F 0.4mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 28.8C 84F 3mm
VC Bird, Antigua 29.1C 84F 0.2mm
Juliana Airport, St Marteen 28.7C 84F 0.7mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 29.4C 85F trace

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 30.6C 87F
Norman Manley, Jamaica 31.1C 88F
Sangster, Montego Bay, Jamaica 31.0C 88F trace
Nassau, Bahamas 27.7C 82F
Havana, Cuba 29.0C 84F
Puerto Palta, DR 28.4C 83F 9mm
Santo D0mingo, DR 32.2C trace
Hamilton, Bermuda 22.3C 72F

Hato, Curacao 26.7 80F 15.1mm
Flamingo, Bonaire 26.9C 80F 22.1mm
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 29.5C 85F 11.8mm
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Re: Caribbean / CA Weather Thread=Dry pattern breaks next week?

#4197 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 07, 2010 8:04 pm

:uarrow: Great to see some of the islands getting some precipitation.And todays rains were before the expected change in the pattern to a more wet one that the models have been advertising for a while.
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Re: Caribbean / CA Weather Thread=Dry pattern breaks next week?

#4198 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Apr 07, 2010 8:50 pm

Worried for those in Haiti. :( Good luck Caribbean Neighbors. :)
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Re: Caribbean / CA Weather Thread=Dry pattern breaks next week?

#4199 Postby Macrocane » Wed Apr 07, 2010 9:41 pm

In the northern countries of Central America below average maximum temperatures were registered again this afternoon:

Santa Ana, El Salvador 33.5°C/92.3°F
San Salvador, El Salvador 30°C/86°F
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.8°C/96.4°F (lowest max temperature in San Miguel since mid February).
Belize, Belize 30°C/86°F
Guatemala, Guatemala 26°C/79°F
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C/84°F
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C/95°F
San Jose, Costa Rica 31°C/88°F
Panama city, Panama 34°C/93°F
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Re: Caribbean / CA Weather Thread=Dry pattern breaks next week?

#4200 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 07, 2010 10:03 pm

Worried for those in Haiti.


Yes,what may be good for others in the Caribbean,may be bad for Haiti.
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