Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

I hope we get some of your rain Luis
It is really windy here.
We are getting wind from the east at about 20 MPH with higher gusts

Barbara

[Gustywind]

[tropicana]

Regional Weather Summary
Fri Apr 09 2010

Today's Highs and rain (if any)

Piarco, Trinidad 35.7C 96F **46th cons. day at or over 33.7C**
Crown Point, Tobago 31.7C 89F 2.0mm
Point Salines, Grenada 30.6C 87F 2.4mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 29.3C 85F 22.3mm
Rockley, S. Barbados 29.7C 86F 21.1mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 29.6C 85F 5.0mm
Hewanorra, St Lucia 27.6C 82F 6.8mm
Vigie, St Lucia 27.6C 82F 13.2mm
Canefield, Dominica 32.3C 90F 2.1mm
Melville Hall, Domincia 29.8C 86F trace
Le Lamentin, Martinique 28.9C 84F 7.6mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 32.0C 90F
Golden Rock, St Kitts 29.9C 86F
VC Bird, Antigua 30.2C 86F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 30.0C 86F 1.8mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 30.5C 87F
Norman Manley, Jamaica 31.8C 89F
Sangster, Montego Bay, Jamaica 31.0C 88F
Nassau, Bahamas 29.8C 86F
Havana, Cuba 32.5C 90F
Hamilton, Bermuda 22.2C 72F

Hato, Curacao 31.4C 88F
Flamingo, Bonaire 29.8C 86F
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 32.0C 90F

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.All indications are that next week will be the start of the rainy season in the Eastern Caribbean.

Barbara,I hope that ST Maarten gets the rain needed to aliviate the deficit of rainfall there.

[b]AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST SAT APR 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATING THE LOCAL AREA...WILL
SHIFT EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. A SECOND HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SECOND
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFT EAST...AS A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SHOWERS AFFECTED THE NORTHERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO...AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS...INCLUDING SAINT
CROIX IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BROUGHT BY THE
EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL IN
PUERTO RICO...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AS STREAMERS DEVELOPS. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS IN CONTROL
OF OUR CURRENT WEATHER AND THIS OVERALL WEATHER SCENARIO IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR
NO IMPACT TO OUR LOCAL WEATHER IS FORECAST AT THIS MOMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE.

A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING RELATIVELY DRY
AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...BY
MID WEEK...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR. GFS COMPUTER MODEL SUGGEST THAT A VERY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT
THE SAME TIME...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED TO THE
NORTH...INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AND MOST PROBABLY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF
THE LOCAL WET SEASON.

LATEST 00Z TJSJ SOUNDING REVEALED PW VALUES WERE 1.39
INCHES...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN TWO DAYS AGO. THIS
INCREASING TREND IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND EVEN MORE DURING THE NEXT WEEK...WHICH THE SJU-GFS
PROG SOUNDING INDICATING PW VALUES WILL INCREASE AS HIGH AS 2.10
INCHES BY NEXT THURSDAY. ALSO...MODELS INDICATES STRONG SOUTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH COULD
TRIGGER EVEN MORE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAX. GFS HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS WEATHER SCENARIO NEXT WEEK...THEREFORE...STAY
TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES...AS WE APPROACH THE CONVECTIVE SEASON
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH A PREVAILING EASTERLY LLVL WND FLOW AT 15 TO 20 KTS.
PATCHES OF PASSING CLDS/SHRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO GENERATING OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE TERMINAL OF TJBQ AND TJMZ.
[b]

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 100913
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 AM AST SAT APR 10 2010

PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED
MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WITH A FEW AFFECTING THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THE WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WELL INTO
THE WEEKEND. INTERVALS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS...WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING THEREAFTER. ONE OR TWO
DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BUT NO WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...SEAS UP TO 7 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES DUE TO THE ROUGH AND CHOPPY SEA CONDITIONS CAUSED BY THE
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS ARE URGED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE.

$$

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

As much as I want the rainy pattern to begin (Next Week) and aliviate the drought conditions that many of the islands in the Eastern Caribbean are enduring,I dont want to see Haiti getting plenty of it as we know what is happening there.

00z GFS at 144 hours

[Gustywind]

As much as I want the rainy pattern to begin (Next Week) and aliviate the drought conditions that many of the islands in the Eastern Caribbean are enduring,I dont want to see Haiti getting plenty of it as we know what is happening there.

00z GFS at 144 hours

Oh yeah you're right me too concerning Haiti ... but should it verifies first concerning the GFS and that's another story. In any case let's keep our fingers crossed to see rain much needed in the East carib islands.

[HUC]

Oh yeah,Gusty and Cycloneye,RAIN ,rain,rain...The south carribean got a lot of rain since 10 days now,the rain is falling over the mountain,,i see it smell it,but...not falling at all over Basse-Terre!!!But i think that the pattern is changing and we should got this precious liquid soon....Hope Haiti will be spared!!!

[Gustywind]

That's it...
Oh yeah my friends... here is the rain, it's raining a bit nicely since 11am in my location! The weather is grey and sad! What 's the weather like in Basse-Terre HUC?

[HUC]

Rain over the mountains, a lot,and.... 1mm in my rain gauge:FANTASTIC!!!!

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

There has been a moderate earthquake near the Virgin Islands this afternoon.Go to geology forum for the details.Link to Eastern Caribbean seismic activity thread.

viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107389&hilit=&p=1975491#p1975491

The forecast continues to announce a rather wet week ahead.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 PM AST SAT APR 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE WEATHER WEEK IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AS INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE VI AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. THIS SHALLOW...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY CONVECTION...IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE VI AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...HELPING TO MAINTAIN
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. AT
THE SAME TIME...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTH...AS WE HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO WITNESS
TODAY...AS THE PW HAS BEEN ON A STEADY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES
THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE MODERATELY STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY KEEP WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING
TOMORROW...THE MID LEVEL CAP WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
HELP AID IN DAILY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY...WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
LIKELY ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJPS
THROUGH 10/22Z IN A PASSING SHRA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW AFT 11/16Z...WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCRUATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJMZ...TJPS AND TJBQ BETWEEN 11/18Z-11/22Z. PREVAILING VFR CONDS
EXPECTED REMAINDER OF TAF SITES.

[Gustywind]

Rain over the mountains, a lot,and.... 1mm in my rain gauge:FANTASTIC!!!!

It's very frustrating for you location HUC, i have nice rain (under my estimations) near 5 millimeters and even more! Hope that Mother Nature will hear Basse-Terre and its citizens during the next couple of hours ...

[Gustywind]

[HUC]

YEEEEEESSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!It's RAINING:7mm,and more is falling Oh friends,since the begining of the year,the trees and grass are singing.
Ouch!!!!!!

[Gustywind]

YEEEEEESSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!It's RAINING:7mm,and more is falling Oh friends,since the begining of the year,the trees and grass are singing.
Ouch!!!!!!

Glad to see that my family in Basse-Terre have been blessed to... HUC Right now, you can have a small breath with this rain and that's the very good news.
Thanks to Mother Nature

[msbee]

congratulations Guadeloupe!

[Gustywind]

YEEEEEESSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!It's RAINING:7mm,and more is falling Oh friends,since the begining of the year,the trees and grass are singing.
Ouch!!!!!!

Afterwards i thought a moment if we should not have to congrat for this good rain with some champane ... testyfing how we were waiting for the precious liquid, what a story for Basse-Terre HUC. Happy that to see that the outcome were much more optimistic than predicted for today.
Let's take it easy with moderation

[Gustywind]

congratulations Guadeloupe!

Thanks Barbara we appreciate sincerely and it's an euphemisma!!!! Stage cleared for Guadeloupe

[HUC]

Yes,men,now 21mm( not to far of an inche) and it's continuing.Thank's Gid,and all of you.
Rain otsidfe,and in my heart...