Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Abajan,is the first time that I hear thunder this year,very loud I may add.As you said,the weather pattern may be changing to the summerlike one.I think I can sleep tonight without any more boomers as things appear to calm down in the San Juan metroplex.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Today will be another day of flash flood watches and warnings.I will keep you posted on the events here.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
616 AM AST WED APR 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TODAY...ALONG AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR MANY MUNICIPALITIES OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
PUERTO RICO...THE WET SEASON IS HERE. PER SEVERAL U.S.G.S.
GAGES...SOME INCREDIBLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH PARTS OF EASTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO NEAR SAN
LORENZO...JUNCOS AND YABUCOA ALREADY INDICATING 5 TO 7+ INCHES OF
RAIN...WHILE THE RIO MAMEYES BASIN IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO HAS
HAD AN AMAZING 14 TO 20+ INCHES!

CURRENTLY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVERNIGHT
MCS CONTINUE TO HAMMER MAUNABO...YABUCOA AND PATILLAS IN
SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND MONITORING THIS AREA
FOR FFW AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR...FAVORABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...
AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST TO
THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...AND LOCAL EFFECTS...WILL RESULT IN THE
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN INTERIOR...SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN PRODUCE VERY HEAVY TO
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. GROUNDS ACROSS
THESE AREAS REMAIN AT OR NEAR SATURATION AND RIVERS REMAIN AT
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
COULD RESULT IN FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. FOR THIS
REASON...WE HAVE CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO AND EXPANDED IT TO INCLUDE EASTERN INTERIOR
PUERTO RICO...UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING.

FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE LOWS MOVES EAST
NORTHEAST...EXPECT IT TO DRAG COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...PRODUCING SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...
WITH OVERALL DRIER AIR THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRAS AND TSRAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PUERTO RICO THROUGH 14/13Z...WITH MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS POSSIBLE
ACROSS TJSJ WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT AND
BECOME NWRLY ACROSS PR BY 14/17Z...WITH SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING
IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS
TJPS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A PASSING SHRA
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 14/17Z IN A NW WIND
FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 3
TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS WORSENING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AS DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST NORTHEAST TO OUR NORTH AND SLOWLY
INTENSIFIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.27 INCHES FELL AT THE LUIS
MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN YESTERDAY. THIS
RECORD SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 0.72 INCHES THAT FELL ON
APRIL 13 1956. HOWEVER...THIS RECORD RAINFALL PAILS IN COMPARISON
TO THE OVER 20 INCHES OF RAINFALL RECORDED ACROSS SECTIONS OF
EASTERN PUERTO RICO THE PAST 24 HOURS...WHERE 20.34 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WAS RECORDED AT RIO MAMEYES IN NE PR SINCE 4 AM TUESDAY
MORNING.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 AM AST WED APR 14 2010

PRZ004-141900-
/O.EXB.TJSJ.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-100415T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
EASTERN INTERIOR-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...CAGUAS
513 AM AST WED APR 14 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING AREA...EASTERN INTERIOR.

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* THE COMBINATION OF VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR...FAVORABLE MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...A DEVELOPING AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...AND LOCAL EFFECTS...
WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

* GROUNDS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA REMAIN AT OR NEAR SATURATION AND
RIVERS REMAIN AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...
AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR
YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Today will be another day of flash flood watches and warnings.I will keep you posted on the events here.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
616 AM AST WED APR 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TODAY...ALONG AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR MANY MUNICIPALITIES OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
PUERTO RICO...THE WET SEASON IS HERE. PER SEVERAL U.S.G.S.
GAGES...SOME INCREDIBLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH PARTS OF EASTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO NEAR SAN
LORENZO...JUNCOS AND YABUCOA ALREADY INDICATING 5 TO 7+ INCHES OF
RAIN...WHILE THE RIO MAMEYES BASIN IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO HAS
HAD AN AMAZING 14 TO 20+ INCHES!

CURRENTLY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVERNIGHT
MCS CONTINUE TO HAMMER MAUNABO...YABUCOA AND PATILLAS IN
SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND MONITORING THIS AREA
FOR FFW AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR...FAVORABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...
AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST TO
THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...AND LOCAL EFFECTS...WILL RESULT IN THE
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN INTERIOR...SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN PRODUCE VERY HEAVY TO
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. GROUNDS ACROSS
THESE AREAS REMAIN AT OR NEAR SATURATION AND RIVERS REMAIN AT
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
COULD RESULT IN FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. FOR THIS
REASON...WE HAVE CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO AND EXPANDED IT TO INCLUDE EASTERN INTERIOR
PUERTO RICO...UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING.

FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE LOWS MOVES EAST
NORTHEAST...EXPECT IT TO DRAG COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...PRODUCING SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...
WITH OVERALL DRIER AIR THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRAS AND TSRAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PUERTO RICO THROUGH 14/13Z...WITH MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS POSSIBLE
ACROSS TJSJ WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT AND
BECOME NWRLY ACROSS PR BY 14/17Z...WITH SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING
IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS
TJPS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A PASSING SHRA
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 14/17Z IN A NW WIND
FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 3
TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS WORSENING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AS DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST NORTHEAST TO OUR NORTH AND SLOWLY
INTENSIFIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.27 INCHES FELL AT THE LUIS
MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN YESTERDAY. THIS
RECORD SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 0.72 INCHES THAT FELL ON
APRIL 13 1956. HOWEVER...THIS RECORD RAINFALL PAILS IN COMPARISON
TO THE OVER 20 INCHES OF RAINFALL RECORDED ACROSS SECTIONS OF
EASTERN PUERTO RICO THE PAST 24 HOURS...WHERE 20.34 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WAS RECORDED AT RIO MAMEYES IN NE PR SINCE 4 AM TUESDAY
MORNING.

[knotimpaired]

Luis,

We have rain over here but our radar is down.

Do you have another site where we can watch what may approch us?

K

[cycloneye]

Luis,

We have rain over here but our radar is down.

Do you have another site where we can watch what may approch us?

K

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1036 AM AST WED APR 14 2010

PRC023-055-059-079-111-121-125-153-141730-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0056.100414T1436Z-100414T1730Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-YAUCO PR-GUAYANILLA PR-GUANICA PR-
CABO ROJO PR-PENUELAS PR-LAJAS PR-
1036 AM AST WED APR 14 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN...YAUCO...GUAYANILLA...GUANICA...CABO
ROJO...PENUELAS AND LAJAS

* UNTIL 130 PM AST

* AT 1032 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING RAPID RISES IN
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG
ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST 1:30 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

Updated Midday discussion by NWS San Juan


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1128 AM AST WED APR 14 2010

.UPDATE...SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 925 MB IS CONFIRMING THE NAMS
INTERPRETATION OF LOWER LEVEL WINDS THIS MORNING...INCLUDING A
VERY CLEAR VORTEX NEAR 19.48 NORTH 68.46 WEST. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED
MOISTURE THROUGH 24 THOUSAND FEET AND VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR ABOVE 5 THOUSAND FEET. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ABOVE 1.8
INCHES AND TOTAL TOTALS INDEX WAS 46 THIS MORNING. GFS HAD STRONG
CONVECTION CENTER SHOWN ON SATELLITE NEAR 20 NORTH 66 WEST BUT
DID NOT SHOW VORTEX TO NORTHWEST. GFS HAD LOWER THETA-E MOVING
OVERLAND BY 18Z IN THE NORTH FLOW AROUND THIS LOW AND SHOWED
WEAKENING ACTIVITY AND LOW-LEVEL RH OVER INTERIOR PUERTO RICO.
MEANWHILE DEW POINT IN TJMZ HAS RISEN FROM 73 TO 79 DEGREES EVEN
AS CLEAR AIR BEHIND CONVERGENCE ZONE MOVING EAST THROUGH WESTERN
PUERTO RICO PASSES OUT OF THE AREA. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AT
THE WESTERN END OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND AS OF 11 AM AST WAS
SPREADING EAST ALONG ITS FLANKS AND JUST NORTH OF PONCE. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. WITH NORTHWEST SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
ALONG THE NORTH COAST EXPECT CONVERGENCE TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR. CLOUD FREE...READ SUNNY...AREAS ARE STILL PRESENT
OVER THE ISLAND AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE INSTABILITY AND
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO THE MIMIC
PRODUCT STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF MOISTURE UPSTREAM AND A HINT OF THE
CIRCULATION VISIBLE NEAR THE MONA CHANNEL NOT WITHSTANDING THE GFS.
CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE TJBQ WILL ESCAPE MUCH OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AS MAY OTHER PARTS OF NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO. BUT INTERIOR SECTIONS MAY NOT FARE SO WELL. HAVE
PLACED FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
THE LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE CELL FORMATION AND THE UNSTABLE NATURE
OF THE AIR MASS.

IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND VIEQUES. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
FORMED IN THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS CURRENTLY ON THE NORTH.
THIS FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THERE...BUT HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA OR VIEQUES.


&&

.AVIATION...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST IN THE PREVAILING WIND FLOW TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY IN TJMZ AND POSSIBLE TJPS AND IN TJSJ AFT 14/18Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY DRIVEN BY SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION...BUT WINDS AT AND ABOVE 3 THOUSAND FEET WILL BE
MOSTLY WEST SOUTHWEST TURNING SLOWLY TO WEST NORTHWEST. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO. TNCM AND TKPK HAVE
CLEARED AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY VFR THROUGH 14/22Z. TAFS
WILL BE AMENDED SHORTLY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...AREAS IN SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO WHERE CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY FORMING HAVE NOT HAD A GREAT DEAL OF RAIN IN THE WEEK
PRIOR SO THEY SHOULD FARE WELL...OTHER AREAS OF RAIN COULD AFFECT
INTERIOR AND NORTHERN PUERTO RICO WHERE HEAVY RAINS HAVE FALLEN IN
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND PRODUCE A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING...RISING RIVERS
AND LOCAL MUDSLIDES.

[Macrocane]

El Salvador received some rain yesterday too, especially in the northern mountains in the El Salvador-Honduras border and the department of San Salvador. Actaully the capital recieved the highest amount of rainfall 25.2 mm/1 inch. The national average was 3.2 mm/0.13 inches. Today more showers and thunderstorms are expected as a surface trough in Mexico and a another one south of Central America are increasing the moisture that comes from the Pacific ocean.

[tropicana]

TRINIDAD UPDATE
Wed Apr 14, 2010

DAY # 51 of Heatwave 36.0C 97F today

Feb 23-Apr 14 *and counting... daily highs at or over 33.7C 93F, a very rare event in the Eastern Caribbean for such an extended period
Hot, hazy weather persisted, temperatures reaching 36.0C 97F at Piarco International Airport on Wednesday. Isolated thunderclouds have developed over the island, and the airport was reportedly hearing thunder at 2pm.

Over the next day or two, with increasing moisture levels, with ample daytime heating, expect afternoon showers and even a thunderstorm or two to develop, especially over the western and north-western districts.
A band of showers and thunderstorms have encroached to within 100 miles off the south-east coastline this Wednesday afternoon.

The trough in the Eastern Caribbean has brought record amounts of rain to the Leeward Islands over the past few days. VC Bird in Antigua has seen 95mm of rain in just the last 2 days, and flights were diverted away from the island on Tuesday due to flooded runway conditions. Puerto Rico also continues with frequent showers and thunderstorms. There are reliable reports of over 20 + inches ( 500 mm) of rainfall from the north-eastern part of the island and has caused disastrous flooding.
The airport in Guadeloupe received another 64mm of rain overnight, causing flooding on that island. Dominica has seen over 159mm of rain ( 6 1/4 inches) in just the last day. .

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

It looks like good weather will come for the weekend.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
320 PM AST WED APR 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
RUNNING WEST TO EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC AROUND 25 NORTH. ON
SATURDAY THE JET WILL LIFT NORTH AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA AND MOVES EAST INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A VORTEX MOVED SOUTH AND WAS IN THE PROCESS OF
BREAKING UP OVER PUNTA CANA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO MOVES EAST FROM NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST BRINGING NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. WITH THIS FLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT
COOLER AND DRIER AIR. BANDS OF MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW THIS EARLY IN
THE WEEK UNTIL ANOTHER BOUNDARY IS USHERED IN BY WESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HEAVY SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS JUMPED THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND MOVED THROUGH EAST CENTRAL PUERTO RICO AND
DISSIPATED OVER THE NORTHEAST. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FOUND IN WEST CENTRAL PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN EXPECTED DESPITE
HAVING HEAVY RAINS...NEVERTHELESS CONDITIONS NECESSITATED SEVERAL
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES...AND THE ISLAND IS NOT
TOTALLY OUT OF DANGER FROM HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD PROVOKE FLOODING
IF ANY OF THE CELLS STALL OVER A PARTICULAR AREA. WILL LEAVE THE
WATCH UNTIL 8 PM AST...BUT THE NEXT SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE IT
DOWN BEFORE IT EXPIRES.

BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW A BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
ISLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS IT A LITTLE LATER
INTO THE MORNING THAN THE NAM. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS ON
THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS FOR
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND. RAIN AMOUNTS FROM THIS SHOULD BE MODEST. THE
MODELS ALSO HAVE SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH WITH A WEAK FRONT.
MOISTURE DIMINISHES OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEHIND THE FRONT ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE A FEW BANDS OF MOISTURE THAT CAN BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FLOODING SEEM UNLIKELY UNTIL
NEXT WEEK. MORE MOISTURE COMES IN ON WEST FLOW NEXT WEEK THAT
APPEARS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER FRONT SOMETIME MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TIST...TNCM AND TKPK IN PASSING SHOWERS OR
VCSH. ALSO...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH
ABOUT 14/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WITH THE WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL GO UP...FIRST OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN OVER THE PASSAGES AND THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS NEAR THE PASSAGES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...ONLY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN ALREADY INUNDATED
AREAS WILL PROVOKE ANY FLOODING NOW. THIS IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHEAST AND WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP. BUT IT MAY BE
POSSIBLE TO TAKE IT DOWN IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...DEPENDING ON
HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THE CANOVANAS RIVER DID CREST OVER 8 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON...LESS THAN TWO FEET FROM FLOOD STAGE...BUT SHOWERS
WERE MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP IT FROM OVERFLOWING.

[Gustywind]

[msbee]

clearing out

[tropicana]

Regional Weather Summary
Wed Apr 14 2010

Today's Highs and rain (if any)

Piarco, Trinidad 36.0C 97F **51st cons. day at or over 33.7C**
Crown Point, Tobago 32.0C 90F trace
Point Salines, Grenada 30.6C 87F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 31.0C 88F 0.9mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 30.4C 86F 2.0mm
Hewannora, St Lucia 31.4C 88F
Vigie, St Lucia 31.4C 88F 1.2mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 29.5C 85F 161mm (last 24 hours)
Canefield, Dominica 32.1C 90F 2.1mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 32.7C 91F 3.6mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 30.8C 87F 64.0mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 30.6C 87F
West End, Anguilla 29.8C 86F
VC Bird, Antigua 29.7C 86F 13.0mm
St Thomas, VI 29.4C 85F trace
St Maarten, VI 28.7C 84F 2.1mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 30.6C 87F 30.0mm (last night)

Norman Manley, Jamaica 32.6C 91F trace
Sangster, Montego Bay, Jamaica 32.0C 90F
Havana, Cuba 29.4C 85F
Nassau, Bahamas 27.3C 81F
Hamilton, Bermuda 20.2C 68F 1mm

[Macrocane]

It has been a cloudy morning and afternoon in Guatemla, Honduras and El Salvador and the maximum temperatures have been lower than normals becasue of that cloudiness. These are today maximums:

Santa Ana, El Salvador 32.3°C/90.1°F
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.1°C/84.4°F
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.3°C/97.3°F
Belize city, Belize 31°C/88°F
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26°C/79°F
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C/82°F
Managua, Nicaragua 36°C/97°F
San Jose, Costa Rica 28°C/82°F
Panama city, Panama 33°C/91°F

[cycloneye]

Updated discussion by NWS San Juan

Still some showers will move thru the area tonight thru thursday night but in general,a improvement trend will start bigtime by friday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
824 PM AST WED APR 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WINDS HAVE TURNED FROM THE NW ACROSS THE AREA AND
THIS HAS BROUGHT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AS SEEN ON LATEST TPW IMAGERY
WITH PWAT VALUES NOW RUNNING AROUND 1.75 INCHES COMPARED TO THE 2.0+
INCHES SEEN LAST NIGHT. SOME WARMING HAS TAKEN PLACE BETWEEN 800-700
MB AS SEEN ON RECENT ACARS DATA INDICATIVE THAT SUBSIDENCE IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE. AT QUICK PEEK AT OUR RAWINDSONDE DATA ALSO
SHOWS SHARP DRYING AROUND 750 MB. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SOUNDERS
DO NOT SHOW ANY MOISTURE GRADIENTS CLOSE TO THE AREA SUGGESTING NO
JET STREAKS ARE NEARBY THAT COULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
TONIGHT. ONLY THING THAT STILL CONCERNS ME IS THE CYCLONIC VORTEX
THAT WAS STILL VISIBLE ON VIS IMAGERY BEFORE SUNSET. THIS FEATURE
COULD STILL SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR A CONVECTIVE BLOWUP OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN MOISTURE AXIS NOW EAST OF PR AND NO ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FEEL THAT IF A SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE BLOWUP
WHERE TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT IT WOULD BE OVER THE USVI AND THE ANEGADA
PASSAGE. ZONES WILL UPDATED SHORTLY TO ADJUST FIRST 24 HRS AND TO
REMOVE HEADLINE.

WINDS TURN MORE FROM THE NNE TOMORROW AND THIS SHOULD CONCENTRATE
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH COAST AND AWAY FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS OF
NORTHEAST PR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS XCPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
AT PONCE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. After the weekend passes,it looks like another wet week ahead so keep in that in mind.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
352 AM AST THU APR 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH QUICK PASSING SHOWERS FROM
TIME TO TIME...ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS QUICK PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM EXPECTED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER TODAY WILL HELP
INCREASE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING IN LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS BY THIS EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
DUE TO EXPECTED WINDS OF 25 MPH OR HIGHER...MAY END UP NEEDING A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH TODAY...WITH MAINLY QUICK PASSING SHOWERS...AND MUCH MORE
MODEST ACCUMULATIONS...THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST 48
HOURS. THIS BREEZY...AND OCCASIONALLY SHOWERY...BUT LESS FLOOD PRONE
WEATHER...IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
RETURN TO DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE...LIGHTER WINDS...AND AN
INCREASE IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TIST...TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH 15/14Z...WITH
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF
PR EXPECTED TO LAST ALL DAY. AFT 15/16Z...A PASSING SHRA OR TSRA
MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY TO TJPS AND TJMZ THROUGH
15/22Z.

[tropicana]

TRINIDAD UPDATE
Thu Apr 15, 2010

HEATWAVE SNAPPED/ THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER WESTERN DISTRICTS
ends at 51 consecutive days

Feb 23-Apr 14 *... daily highs at or over 33.7C 93F, the longest such streak on record

Ample moisture levels, and modest daytime heating brought rainfall and helped snap Trinidad's longest hot streak today, as temperatures reached just 31.1C 88F this morning. It was the first time the temperatures failed to reach 33.7C since Feb 23, and the lowest maximum temperature at the airport since Feb 3, or 72 days ago.
As expected, showers and thunderstorms came in abundance today, most especially across western and north-western districts of the island. Up to 2pm, the airport just picked up a trace, but a steady rain was falling.

Across western districts, the Point Lisas area (SW area) has seen in excess of 72 mm ( 3 inches) of rain ( in 3 hours to 2pm)
Maraval nestled in the NW hills picked up approximately 42mm of rain ( 1.75 inches) . This is more rain that for the past 3 1/2 months combined.
Despite the very dry land baked by months of intense heat, there have been reports of flashflooding due to the rainfall rate and intensity.

[cycloneye]

Great news that finnally the dry spell in Trinidad has ended today.But lets see if it continues from now on as the rainy season gets under way as every year it does at this time of the year.

[Gustywind]

:uarrow: Great news that finnally the dry spell in Trinidad has ended today.But lets see if it continues from now on as the rainy season gets under way as every year it does at this time of the year.

very too that's very good news for them!!!