SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[srainhoutx]

[jasons2k]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0285.html

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0285
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0511 PM CDT WED APR 07 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 072211Z - 072315Z

ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED S OF WW 62 ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT.
WITH CAPPING LIKELY TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HOWEVER...WW
APPEARS UNLIKELY ATTM.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW FRONT ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS SERN
PORTIONS OF TX...INTO AIRMASS FEATURING LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS AND
AROUND 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT AN
INCREASINGLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SWD EXTENT ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT ISOLATED STORMS -- CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL -- HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP AS FAR S AS WALKER CO.

ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SWD ALONG THE FRONT IS QUESTIONABLE DUE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED CAPPING...BUT GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR ANY STORM WHICH CAN BREACH THE CAP WOULD POSE A SEVERE THREAT.
ATTM...CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THAT ANY ADDITIONAL
FRONTAL/SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED
AS TO PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE.

[jasons2k]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
702 PM CDT WED APR 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 656 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10
MILES WEST OF BELLVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO PRAIRIE VIEW AND HEMPSTEAD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE
PROPERTY DAMAGE OR SERIOUS INJURY. AVOID WINDOWS AND TAKE COVER NOW!

[jasons2k]

GRIMES TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
706 PM CDT WED APR 7 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR MONTGOMERY AND GRIMES COUNTIES...

AT 703 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DACUS...OR 11 MILES EAST OF NAVASOTA...
AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE IMPACT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
THE INDICATED COUNTIES.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[jasons2k]

You can see the front is now crossing near downtown Houston, with the storms along and behind the front.

[srainhoutx]

What a gorgeous day in SE TX although a touch cool. Not much in the way of rainfall either, but just enough to wash down some of the worst pollen I have ever seen in our part of the world. As David mentioned, I hope we are not heading back toward a drought situation again. I've mentioned in the Talking Tropics thread I am a bit concerned at seeing the stubborn SE Ridge establishing so soon. Longer range guidance does not bode well for us as a persistent W Coast trough and SE ridge sure looks to be what is ahead in the foreseeable future.

[Tireman4]

I LOVE THIS WEATHER. Makes running fun again!!!!

[vbhoutex]

What a gorgeous day in SE TX although a touch cool. Not much in the way of rainfall either, but just enough to wash down some of the worst pollen I have ever seen in our part of the world. As David mentioned, I hope we are not heading back toward a drought situation again. I've mentioned in the Talking Tropics thread I am a bit concerned at seeing the stubborn SE Ridge establishing so soon. Longer range guidance does not bode well for us as a persistent W Coast trough and SE ridge sure looks to be what is ahead in the foreseeable future.

SSSHHH!!!!!! They'll here you.

[southerngale]

It got down to 46° here last night (although I was in Houston) and tonight's low is expected to be 45°. It doesn't feel much like April right now! It's quite nice... knowing those 90s+ aren't very far around the corner.

[southerngale]

39° this morning! *checks the calendar* Brrr!

[jasons2k]

Yeah, it was 40F here...steam coming off the pool. It's beautiful now though

[Tireman4]

Woo Hoo....I love it. As a runner, I love it. !!!!

[srainhoutx]

Just had a rumble of thunder in NW Harris County. So much for a sprinkle or two.

[vbhoutex]

Just had a rumble of thunder in NW Harris County. So much for a sprinkle or two.

Everyone I know is posting about rumbles of thunder from all quadrants of the city, but I have yet to hear any here in the middle of it all. Have had a few mice showers, but could really use some "rain". So much for the forecast of no rain for 10 days I saw.

[southerngale]

Fortunately, I just got a little light rain and not enough to cancel baseball for the day. Once it cleared up, it was a beautiful day outside. I even got sunburned.

[vbhoutex]

Just had a rumble of thunder in NW Harris County. So much for a sprinkle or two.

Everyone I know is posting about rumbles of thunder from all quadrants of the city, but I have yet to hear any here in the middle of it all. Have had a few mice showers, but could really use some "rain". So much for the forecast of no rain for 10 days I saw.

Well, I guess it depends on what one calls "rain". We ended up with 0.03" here making the total for the month a whopping 0.06" for the month.

[Jagno]

The weather has been absolutely beautiful here. We certainly could use a good rain about now but in the meantime, I'll just keep watering the new garden.

[vbhoutex]

Latest from Jeff Lindner:

Increasing rain chances along with some heavy rainfall becoming increasingly likely late this week into this weekend.

Gulf moisture is starting to increase over the region as noted by low to mid 60 degree dewpoints versus the lower 50 degree dewpoints yesterday. Additionally, the radar shows scattered showers off the coast of Matagorda Bay this morning indicating the leading edge of deeper moisture plume which has been over S TX the last few days. Highly unusual blocking pattern for mid April (more like July without the heat) will slowly break down over the next 72-96 hours allowing deep moisture in 12,000 ft deep easterly flow to advect NE over SE TX starting Thursday and peaking this weekend. Upper ridge over the SE US will break down on the western side allowing our area to become vulnerable to incoming short waves out of NE Mexico.

Will go with highest rain chances today and Thursday from Matagorda Bay to Austin and SW of that line where deepest moisture will be located, and then pull rain chances across the entire region Friday-Sunday as deep moisture pool moves overhead along with good dynamics aloft and upper air divergence. Models are hinting at a fairly robust short wave moving out of Mexico late Friday into early Saturday into a very favorable low level environment for heavy to excessive rainfall. If the models verify, expect the formation of a large MCS capable for some very heavy rains over S TX into the coastal bend and the W/SW portions of SE TX. Models are even hinting at surface low formation in the W/NW Gulf with this feature and would not be surprised to see either a main surface low form or meso low formation within the convective complex Saturday morning.

Heavy Rains

For now will keep the heaviest rains pegged from Rockport to Victoria to Austin eastward to Columbus and Bay City Friday-Saturday where HPC guidance is showing Day 4/5 totals of 2-3 inches. Extended period of moderate to at times heavy rainfall in a nearly saturated air mass with PWS of 1.5 inches or greater does raise some flooding concerns even with dry grounds. While SE to NW moving streamers out of the Gulf could produce a quick 1-2 inches Thursday, the main event looks late Friday into late Saturday when the strong S TX vort moves toward the region. A highly meso scale environment could promote deep convection near the coast or offshore keeping eh excessive rainfall over the NW Gulf…will have to watch and wait to see how things unfold in such an environment. Models are still not in good agreement with events post Saturday evening as ECMWF cuts off the short wave into an upper low over S TX pumping tremendous moisture into SE TX while the GFS continues to keep a progressive pattern allowing drying. Think the details in the meso scale events on Saturday may end up being right as a large convective complex may scour the region of deep quality moisture.

As has been the case the past few days…changes to the forecast are likely…probably toward a wetter solution with higher rain chances. Will need to keep a close watch on the flood potential especially around Matagorda Bay.

[vbhoutex]

It has become overcast with light rain showers on and off here in the Spring Branch area. Not quite what I expected for today.

[southerngale]

Clear & sunny with a wonderful temp of 71° here. It has been beautiful outside lately, and it feels great!

I'll enjoy it while it lasts.