Florida Weather

[HURAKAN]

Dry conditions return!

[Patrick99]

Fun storms Sunday and Monday. Rain not necessarily done entirely, though, a fast-moving heavy shower passed through a couple hours ago on the strong easterly flow.

Dewpoints in the mid-60s......I'm thinking that if we don't see any more strong fronts rumble through and really dry things out, which seems possible, we could see an early start to the rainy season.

[thetruesms]

I suppose now that I've moved to Florida I should start paying some attention to this thread. The geographic reversal in precipitation patterns this year has been really interesting to watch.

[HURRICANELONNY]

It's not the NWS fault. But everytime they call for alot of rain on the weekend it doesn't happen.
For this weekend...the latest 12z GFS model now takes the weak
low pressure and the short wave in the middle to upper levels of the
atmosphere over the southwest Gulf of Mexico northeast and
through the Florida Keys on Sunday pushing most of the wet weather
south of County Warning Area. However...the latest 12z nam40 and 00z ecwmf takes
the same low and short wave over the County Warning Area and brings the wet
weather over South Florida late Saturday night into Sunday. At
this time...will keep the scattered probability of precipitation over the County Warning Area on Saturday
and Saturday night with likely probability of precipitation over most of the County Warning Area on Sunday
until the models get a better handle on the exact track for the
low and short wave for late this weekend. All of the models are
still showing heavy rainfall possible for South Florida for late
Saturday night into Sunday. More on this will be discuss in the
Hydro section below.
MY FORECAST CALLS FOR PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME SHOWERS. 40%. LETS SEE WHO GETS IT RIGHT. THE MODELS OR LITTLE OLD ME.

[thetruesms]

Central and South Florida have had five heavy rain events in the last five weeks, all of which happened in the vicinity of the weekend. I recall MIA setting a daily rainfall record in the last one.

[JonathanBelles]

Sea Breeze is pinned to the Manatee, Pinellas, Pasco coastline, but it has come on shore by a few miles. West 15mph wind at Clearwater Beach. East at 7mph at KPIE. Both reports from wunderground. Klystron 9 confirms the sea breeze.

[thetruesms]

Sea Breeze is pinned to the Manatee, Pinellas, Pasco coastline, but it has come on shore by a few miles. West 15mph wind at Clearwater Beach. East at 7mph at KPIE. Both reports from wunderground. Klystron 9 confirms the sea breeze.

yes, nailed my biggest forecast uncertainty of day

[artist]

I suppose now that I've moved to Florida I should start paying some attention to this thread. The geographic reversal in precipitation patterns this year has been really interesting to watch.

welcome to Fl thetruesms! We are so glad to have you here. Are you with the NWS here now? I so look forward to your addition to our weather here, your input has always been noted by me. You have a way of making things understandable. And what fun with hurricane season coming upon us. It's alot different from OK and TX here. We are originally from TX . Once again welcome!

[JonathanBelles]

Sea Breeze 'collision' over my house. First of the year:

[Patrick99]

Yeah, last week we had some heavy rainfall. I wouldn't be surprised to see this forecast verify.

Interesting little convergence boundary hanging just off the coast all night. Intermittent tropical-like showers have been just nudging the mainland the past couple hours.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Jonathan those pics are awesome...
yea i saw those clouds too off in the distance...was in tampa though

[thetruesms]

I suppose now that I've moved to Florida I should start paying some attention to this thread. The geographic reversal in precipitation patterns this year has been really interesting to watch.

welcome to Fl thetruesms! We are so glad to have you here. Are you with the NWS here now? I so look forward to your addition to our weather here, your input has always been noted by me. You have a way of making things understandable. And what fun with hurricane season coming upon us. It's alot different from OK and TX here. We are originally from TX . Once again welcome!

Thank you! And that I've actually done something worth remembering with so many others here that are admittedly much more knowledgeable of tropical weather. The weather here is definitely much different, but it's almost been a little surprising how similar the day-to-day has been. Despite being the state capital, Tallahassee definitely feels first and foremost like a college town, so a lot is still pretty familiar. I'm actually not with the NWS, but getting my fire weather on with the Division of Forestry. I'm grateful for the wet winter to help me ease in, since I joined right at their busiest time of year.

I like the small world moment - my girlfriend is from Texas, and we actually moved to be with her parents for a little bit while waiting to hear on this job.

Now, if we can just manage to find a way to get some rain up here and keep the fire danger down - that severe event we had lately only dropped heavy rain on a small area, and everywhere else was mostly dry.

[Sanibel]

SST's have notched-up taking away the worst of that nasty persisting winter chill.


Sun has some sting to it now. The warm-up has begun. Sunblock season.


April is the best month. No air conditioner or heater needed. Low electric bill. Perfect weather.


Clouds are just starting to show signs of rainy season type clouds. Not nearly the full towers but the first flat formations.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

First downpour from seabreeze collisions of the season here in NE tampa at USF.

[Patrick99]

Lot of clouds today, zero rain. The forecast may indeed be a bust. What's over the Gulf right now heading for us tomorrow doesn't look very impressive at all.

[NDG]

Slight chance of severe wx in the southern portion of the FL Peninsula today with that approaching shortwave trough & associated weak surface low with it.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 AM CDT SUN APR 18 2010

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN FL PENINSULA...
SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING SW FL WILL CONTINUE
ENEWD AND SLOWLY LOSE AMPLITUDE TODAY AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE SRN FL
PENINSULA...WHILE ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER OR NEAR SRN FL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN DEEPLY MOIST WITH VERY WEAK LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GREATLY LIMITING OVERALL INSTABILITY DESPITE PRESENCE OF
MID 60S-LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEW POINTS. HOWEVER...INCREASED FORCING
FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO APPROACHING MIDLEVEL SYSTEM IN CONJUNCTION
WITH DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DIURNAL STORMS WITHIN THE MOIST AND WEAKLY
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. MASS RESPONSE TO WEAK SURFACE LOW UNDER MODEST
WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF 150
M2/S2 BY THE EARLY EVENING...ALONG WITH 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW POTENTIAL FOR
EMBEDDED/TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. THIS SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST
OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS WHICH MAY
DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW.

[cycloneye]

The rain is spreading thru SouthCentral Florida.

[psyclone]

a persistent streamer of moderate rain continues to dump here. 1 inch so far.

[thetruesms]

Slight chance of severe wx in the southern portion of the FL Peninsula today with that approaching shortwave trough & associated weak surface low with it.

Techinically, there is no slight risk - SPC hasn't drawn any slight risk areas for today, and put South Florida in a "see text" area. Looks like they don't expect any organized threat, but don't want to rule out a possibility for the possibility of isolated severe weather.

It looks like they did decide to issue a watch unlikely mesoscale discussion, though

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0322
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT SUN APR 18 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S FL AND KEYS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 181720Z - 181945Z

TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE INLAND THROUGH REMAINDER
AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFT GUSTS APCHG SVR LIMITS.
SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELL EVOLUTION ALSO IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INVOF
WARM FRONT OR SEA BREEZES WHERE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAY BE
ENHANCED...IN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW LCL. THEREFORE...MRGL/CONDITIONAL
TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS.

MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER EXTREME E-CENTRAL GULF SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EJECT NEWD TOWARD W-CENTRAL/SW FL COAST. VIS IMAGERY AND SFC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS TRANSITION FROM OVC TO BKN CLOUD
COVER...GENERALLY CORRESPONDING TO SFC WARM FRONT...MOVING NWD
THROUGH CORRIDOR FROM NEAR MARCO ESEWD ACROSS SRN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT NWD ACROSS I-75 THROUGH MIDAFTERNOON...BENEATH
DRY SLOT ALOFT THAT PRECEDES MID-UPPER TROUGH. SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE
SLOWLY EWD TOWARD WATERS BETWEEN MARCO-EYW. DESPITE SFC FLOW NOT
BEING AS BACKED AS INVOF WARM FRONT...INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WITH
SLY EXTENT IN WARM SECTOR WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR OVER MOST OF S FL AND KEYS. EXPECT ENHANCED MID-UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH -- E.G. 30-40 KT AT 500 MB -- TO
CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 40-50 KT.

AS WARM FRONT MOVES NWD...INCREASING INLAND AREA WILL HEAT TO ITS
S...CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING BUOYANCY AND NEGLIGIBLE MLCINH.
MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUCH DESTABILIZATION
AND SFC DEW POINTS NEAR 70 F WILL OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT
ENOUGH TO YIELD 500-1000 J/KG PRE-STORM MLCAPE. LIMITING FACTORS
INCLUDE LACK OF GREATER CAPE...WEAKNESSES IN 0-3 KM HODOGRAPHS...AND
RATHER DIFFUSE FOCI FOR ASCENT S OF WARM FRONT. MESOBETA SCALE TO
STORM-SCALE BOUNDARY/CELL INTERACTIONS MAY BE MOST CRITICAL FOR
LOCALIZED SVR POTENTIAL.

..EDWARDS.. 04/18/2010

[psyclone]

there is a large area heavy rain headed into the Lee/Collier county region. Fire season cancel for peninsular florida at this rate. i have a lake out my window that is more typical of july... and april usually slugs it out with november for the driest month of year around these parts. it's nice to see things so green and lush and the pollen wash off is nice too.