Severe Weather Threat. April 21st-25th, 2010 High Risk!

[KWT]

From the sounds of things Friday could well end up a moderate once we get a little closer to the time, one thing is for sure, there is a HUGE slight risk zone at the moment!


SPC AC 220600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT THU APR 22 2010

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL AND S CENTRAL CONUS...

...SYNOPSIS...
VERY LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD ZONE
OF STRONG SWLY FLOW ON ITS SRN AND ERN FRINGES -- I.E. ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MO VALLEY REGION.

A COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE PATTERN IS PROGGED OVER THE
PLAINS...BUT AN OCCLUDING LOW IS FORECAST INVOF WRN KS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. W OF A TRIPLE POINT PROGGED INVOF
SERN NEB/NERN KS AT 24/00Z...AN OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD ARC WWD ACROSS
NEB...WHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ESEWD ACROSS MO AND INTO THE MID
MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO CROSS KS/OK/TX THROUGH THE DAY...APPROACHING MO/WRN AR/WRN LA
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...MID MO/MID MS VALLEYS SWD INTO SRN AND ERN TX/LA/MS...
A COMPLEX BUT ACTIVE -- AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT -- SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND
S CENTRAL U.S. AS THE LARGE/POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THIS PERIOD. WITH A LARGE WARM SECTOR
BECOMING INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT/FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...A
VERY BROAD AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT.

HAVING SAID THAT...SORTING OUT DETAILS IN TERMS OF TIMING AND
LOCATION OF GREATER SEVERE THREAT REMAINS DIFFICULT ATTM. THIS IS
DUE IN PART TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER -- WHICH SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD ACROSS WRN PORTIONS
OF THE RISK AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- FOCUSED BOTH ALONG
THE WARM FRONT FROM NEB ESEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM KS SWD INTO W CENTRAL TX. WITH
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION LIKELY AFFECTED BY THE
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ONGOING...AND WITH SOME QUESTIONS EVIDENT IN
MODEL TIMING/LOCATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES...WILL REFRAIN
FROM AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK THIS FORECAST.

HAVING SAID THAT...SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT --
POSSIBLY CONCENTRATED WITHIN TWO SEPARATE AREAS.

THE FIRST AREA -- NEAR THE OCCLUDED FRONT/TRIPLE POINT/WARM FRONT
ZONE FROM NEB EWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY INTO NRN MO/SRN IA --
APPEARS TO CONTAIN THE GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD.
HERE...VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR -- BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER -- IS
EXPECTED. WHILE QUESTIONS REGARDING DESTABILIZATION
EXIST...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FUEL A CONVECTIVE
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT SUPERCELLS -- INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...ONE OR TWO OF WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.

A SECOND AREA REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN -- BUT POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO VERY LARGE HAIL. THIS AREA --
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN TX AND INTO THE ARKLATEX -- SHOULD
DESTABILIZE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY THAN AREAS FARTHER N...GIVEN STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF BEING FARTHER REMOVED
FROM ONGOING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. VERY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
IS PROGGED ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT CAPPING WILL REMAIN A LIMITING
FACTOR -- AT LEAST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT
A SECONDARY UPPER FEATURE WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH MODELS FORECASTING EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF
THE FRONT ACROSS THIS REGION. ALONG WITH WIND AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
TORNADO POTENTIAL...VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD BE LIKELY WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THIS AREA.

ONE OTHER AREA OF NOTE EXISTS FARTHER E -- INTO SRN MO/AR/LA AND
POSSIBLY ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO WRN TN/MS. IN THIS
AREA...IMPETUS FOR STORM INITIATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN/UNCLEAR.
HOWEVER...MODELS ALL FORECAST CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THIS
REGION AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...ANY STORM COULD
ORGANIZE/BECOME SEVERE -- WITH THREATS FOR HAIL/WIND AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES THUS EVIDENT. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A CONDITIONAL
15% PROBABILITY IN THIS AREA GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS.

[CrazyC83]

This system may be strong all the way to the coast...

[srainhoutx]

This system may be strong all the way to the coast...

I agree. Should make for a long weekend. After seeing some of the 12Z data, I would not be surprised to see an Upgrade to Moderate Risk as well.

[Bunkertor]

Hm, AMA 12z Sounding is showing a huge cap...OR ?

I´m still not skilled in interpreting skews. Can anyone, please, tell me where the cap is located ?

[CrazyC83]

Moderate risk for tomorrow (first since December 24, 2009!)...waiting for the full text and whether it is on the dryline, triple point or both.

With how the models see things, I wouldn't be surprised for Saturday by the time we get to Day 1 to see a High Risk out of that.

[CrazyC83]

Overnight threat leading into a major tornado outbreak Saturday it appears. I would expect a MDT for Saturday to be issued tomorrow morning, and perhaps a HIGH by the time that day comes.

SPC AC 221728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AR AND NRN LA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...SRN PLAINS...OZARKS...MID MO VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS...

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF AR AND NRN LA...
...THE START OF A TORNADO OUTBREAK POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MS VALLEY...


...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...
A WELL-DEVELOPED SYSTEM OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE
SRN PLAINS FRIDAY. AN IMPRESSIVE 80 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY NEWD INTO
THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX...A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE NWD ACROSS LA INTO SRN AR. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS NRN LA AND SRN AR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE STORMS EXPANDING QUICKLY IN COVERAGE ACROSS ERN
AR...NRN MS AND SRN MO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN NRN
LA AND SRN AR SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ESPECIALLY IF THE
DEVELOPING STORMS BECOME SFC-BASED BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN
ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO ALONG WITH A SUBSTANTIAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE QUICKLY NEWD OUT OF NRN LA ACROSS
ERN AR AND WRN MS FRIDAY EVENING.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS IS FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED. MODEL
FORECASTS DEVELOP A PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT...MOVING THIS FEATURE QUICKLY NNEWD ACROSS LA
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INITIATE
ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS EAST TX AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH THIS CONVECTION SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. INCREASING LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
JET...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD MAKE
CONDITIONS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX LATE IN
THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NRN LA AND SRN AR FROM 09Z TO
12Z SATURDAY SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL RAPIDLY BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR TORNADOES. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP ALONG WITH OUTPUT FROM VARIOUS
SEVERE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT A TORNADO OUTBREAK MAY START LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS NRN LA...SRN AR...WRN MS AND POSSIBLY FAR NE TX.
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE DOMINANT DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WITH A FEW STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...LARGE
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE APPEARS LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE OUTBREAK POTENTIAL IS TIMING
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...MODEL
FORECASTS FOCUS THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MS
VALLEY JUST BEYOND 12Z ON SATURDAY SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
TORNADO OUTBREAK COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

...MID-MO VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS FRIDAY
AS A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SETS UP FROM ERN KS NWWD ACROSS
SRN NEB WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S F.
MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM CNTRL NEB SEWD
ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE
ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE FORECASTS
SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. VERY LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE DOMINANT
SUPERCELLS ACROSS ERN NEB...FAR NE KS AND NW MO AS THE EXIT REGION
OF A MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE
RATES BETWEEN 7.0 AND 7.5 C/KM MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL. THIS THREAT FOR 2 INCH AND GREATER SIZE HAIL SHOULD BE FOCUSED
WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS ACROSS ERN NEB...FAR NE KS AND NW
MO AS THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 04/22/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1736Z (1:36PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[srainhoutx]

[CrazyC83]

The triple point area (NE/IA/MO) may also see a MDT by the time Day 1 rolls around.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0335
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CO AND WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221752Z - 221845Z

...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 20Z ACROSS MUCH OF ERN CO
INTO WRN KS...

BOUNDARY LAYER IS BEGINNING TO WARM RAPIDLY WITHIN CLOUD-FREE
UPSLOPE REGION OF ERN CO. THOUGH SFC TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL SOON BE
REACHED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT OVER SRN CO. LATEST VIS
IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH CU FIELD BEGINNING TO EXPAND/DEEPEN ALONG
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE WARM FRONT FROM NW OF TAD...EWD TO NEAR LAA.
IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...ULTIMATELY LEADING TO
SUPERCELLS. TORNADOES CERTAINLY SEEM POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
LOW CLOUD BASES...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.

..DARROW.. 04/22/2010


ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 74
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO
PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 135 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
AKRON COLORADO TO 30 MILES EAST OF ELKHART KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
THRU THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WATCH AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE. FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED VICINITY WARM FRONT
LIFTING SLOWLY NWD THRU SWRN KS INTO ERN CO. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
INCREASE AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS SERN CO SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS
INCLUDING A THREAT OF TORNADO'S AND LARGE HAIL.

[srainhoutx]

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
110 PM MDT THU APR 22 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BENT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
SOUTH CENTRAL KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...

* UNTIL 215 PM MDT

* AT 108 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF JOHN MARTIN RESERVOIR...OR 23 MILES EAST OF LA JUNTA.
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JOHN MARTIN RESERVOIR...HASTY...NEEGRONDA RESERVOIR...FORT LYON AND
CADDOA.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0336
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221901Z - 222000Z

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HRS ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED BY 20Z.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EVIDENT ON LATEST VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY...COINCIDENT WITH A SFC DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR A
DUMAS-WILDORADO-SUDAN LINE AS OF 19Z. MOIST/UNSTABLE AXIS EXTENDS
ACROSS THE CNTRL TX/OK PANHANDLES...CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. 18Z KAMA RAOB INDICATES AN UNSTABLE AND
WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STRATUS
FIELD CONTINUES TO ERODE ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE WITHIN THE NEXT
HR. DISCRETE CELLS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IN THE
MOIST SECTOR WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/MID-LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EWD
TOWARDS THE REGION...RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING MOISTURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASED DRYLINE CONVERGENCE.

INITIAL THREAT WITH DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL DUE
TO MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS. AS VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL AND
LOW-LEVEL WINDS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL
INCREASE.

..ROGERS.. 04/22/2010


ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

[thetruesms]

[img]http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/ee298/srainhoutx/04222010mcd0336.gif[img]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0336
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

That's funny, I was just cruising the mesoscale analysis section to check out the setup in SW Kansas, and noted while looking that the Panhandles seemed to be developing an interesting situation as well

[CrazyC83]

Could we see a MDT for today as well at 2000Z over the Panhandles/W OK?

[CrazyC83]

New watch coming out. While I don't see it being PDS (unless an outlook upgrade is forthcoming as well), it may have some pretty high numbers on it I think.

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 75
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA
LARGE PART OF TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
GUYMON OKLAHOMA TO 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 74...

DISCUSSION...DRY LINE HAS PROGRESSED INTO WRN PORTIONS OF TX/OK
PANHANDLE AND WILL BE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THRU
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION MORE DISCRETE STORMS ARE LIKELY VICINITY
CAP ROCK WHERE GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH BACKED
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME PRIMARY MODE DURING
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING THREAT OF TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
HAIL...PARTICULARLY ANY DISCRETE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

[CrazyC83]

Tornado probs are 60/30.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
134 PM MDT THU APR 22 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
WESTERN ARAPAHOE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
SOUTH CENTRAL DENVER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO

* UNTIL 215 PM MDT

* AT 134 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BEVERLY
HILLS...OR 19 MILES SOUTH OF DENVER. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTH AT
25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CASTLE
PINES...SURREY RIDGE...SEDALIA...PARKER...GREENWOOD VILLAGE...
BEVERLY HILLS...ARAPAHOE PARK...CENTENNIAL...SOUTHERN DENVER AND
SOUTHWESTERN AURORA.

[thetruesms]

Could we see a MDT for today as well at 2000Z over the Panhandles/W OK?

I suppose it's possible, but I don't think I'd bet on it. It's an interesting situation with a good deal of potential, but it's no slam dunk. Shear's a shade weak and a bit unidirectional for my tastes. Looks like SPC is going with the SREF showing some backing in lower winds later this afternoon into the evening, but it looks like that's only progged for a short window.

[CrazyC83]

That Denver cell has a TVS with 43 kt of shear on it right now.