Severe Weather Threat. April 21st-25th, 2010 High Risk!

[Bunkertor]

Could we see a MDT for today as well at 2000Z over the Panhandles/W OK?

My guess is Yes. I surfed some analysis pages some hours ago and i spotted < 4000 Cape in the ~? AMA area at 0z ?

[CrazyC83]

WWUS55 KPUB 221951
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
151 PM MDT THU APR 22 2010

COC011-061-222015-
/O.CON.KPUB.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-100422T2015Z/
BENT CO-KIOWA CO-
151 PM MDT THU APR 22 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KIOWA AND
NORTHEASTERN BENT COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM MDT...

AT 145 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF HASTY...OR 22 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LAMAR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

A WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE STATED A MULTIVORTEX TORNADO WAS ON THE
GROUND AT 145 PM...AND THIS TORNADO WAS OVER OPEN COUNTRY.

THIS STORM WILL ALSO PRODUCE GOLF BALL OR LARGER SIZE HAIL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEEGRONDA RESERVOIR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. AS A LAST
RESORT... EITHER PARK YOUR VEHICLE AND STAY PUT...OR ABANDON YOUR
VEHICLE AND LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3809 10290 3822 10312 3845 10297 3830 10268
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 219DEG 19KT 3823 10296

$$

[Bunkertor]

The Hook echo SE of DEN is marvellous

[thetruesms]

My guess is Yes. I surfed some analysis pages some hours ago and i spotted < 4000 Cape in the ~? AMA area at 0z ?

SPC and Norman are both analyzing the dryline just to the west of Amarillo right now - I'd think it would be through the area by 00Z

[thetruesms]

The Hook echo SE of DEN is marvellous

That cell is just devouring the one to its NW, as well

[srainhoutx]

[CrazyC83]

Yes indeed, the first Day 1 moderate risk of 2010. Upgraded, awaiting text.

[Bunkertor]

My guess is Yes. I surfed some analysis pages some hours ago and i spotted < 4000 Cape in the ~? AMA area at 0z ?

SPC and Norman are both analyzing the dryline just to the west of Amarillo right now - I'd think it would be through the area by 00Z

Corretione. SE of AMA. But to be honest. That´s what caught my eye.

[thetruesms]

Yes indeed, the first Day 1 moderate risk of 2010. Upgraded, awaiting text.

Exciting, I didn't think they'd go ahead and do it

[CrazyC83]

Yes indeed, the first Day 1 moderate risk of 2010. Upgraded, awaiting text.

Exciting, I didn't think they'd go ahead and do it

This probably will set up (at least) back-to-back-to-back MDT risks (I am sure Saturday will ultimately be AT LEAST a moderate, if not a high risk in the end).

[CrazyC83]

I'm wondering if the watch should be canceled and replaced with a new PDS Tornado Watch, seeing how the threat might last well into the night?

[srainhoutx]

TORNADO WARNING
COC011-061-089-222115-
/O.NEW.KPUB.TO.W.0007.100422T2009Z-100422T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
209 PM MDT THU APR 22 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BENT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
SOUTHWESTERN KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
NORTHEASTERN OTERO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...

* UNTIL 315 PM MDT

* AT 203 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LA JUNTA...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HIGHWAY 50 BETWEEN LA JUNTA AND LAS ANIMAS.
ARLINGTON.

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 221959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE...WRN OK AND SW KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...SRN HIGH PLAINS AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...MODERATE RISK ADDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK
AND SW KS

...SRN PLAINS...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT NUMEROUS DISCRETE STORMS WILL INITIATE
ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ENEWD
INTO WRN OK. THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING MODERATE
INSTABILITY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALREADY IN PLACE. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL RAPIDLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
AS A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES FOCUSED IN WRN OK. AS THE
STORMS MOVE INTO WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET EARLY THIS
EVENING...THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS SHOULD BECOME TORNADIC AND A
FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR THIS REASON...A MODERATE
RISK HAS BEEN ADDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK
AND SW KS. THE LARGE HAIL PROBABILITIES HAVE ALSO BEEN UPGRADED
ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK CORRIDOR. FURTHER NORTHWEST IN WRN KS AND
ERN CO...THE 10 PERCENT TORNADO AND SIGTOR PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED TO THE NORTHWEST TO CATCH AREAS NORTH OF LAMAR CO. IN
ADDITION...THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IN NE CO HAS BEEN EXTENDED WWD TO
INCLUDE AREAS SOUTH OF DENVER WHERE A SEVERE STORM IS ONGOING.

..BROYLES.. 04/22/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT THU APR 22 2010/

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...
A STRONG MIDLEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...AS AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAX ROTATES AROUND THE
LOW /FROM THE NRN GULF OF CA/ AND EJECTS NEWD TOWARD THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THIS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TONIGHT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPENING OF THE LEE CYCLONE NOW IN SE CO. S/SE OF
THE LEE CYCLONE...THE DRYLINE WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM EXTREME SE CO/SW KS SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX
PANHANDLE TO W CENTRAL TX. OVERNIGHT...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT /NOW IN
CENTRAL NM/ WILL SURGE EWD WITH THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND W TX.

A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH ELEVATED
CONVECTION N OF THE WARM FRONT INTO E CENTRAL/SE KS. FARTHER
W/SW...THE WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW OVER SW KS AND SW OK/NW TX
WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE DRYLINE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SURFACE HEATING WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
CONVECTION AS STRATUS CLOUDS BEGIN TO ERODE FROM W TO E...WHILE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 60-65 F SPREAD NWD FROM CENTRAL/NW TX
TOWARD THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK /56-60 F DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED
FARTHER NW INTO KS/. 12Z OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 75-80 F ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL
REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE RANGING FROM
1500 J/KG IN WRN KS TO 2500 J/KG NEAR THE TX/OK BORDER. AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL TX
PANHANDLE/SW KS DRYLINE BY ABOUT 21-22Z. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY.

THE PRIMARY INITIAL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL
WITH SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
FARTHER N ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE AND
CROSS THE WARM FRONT. THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TOWARD EVENING ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES AND THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. ANY SURVIVING
DISCRETE STORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO NEAR SUNSET /OR JUST AFTER/ AS
SRH INCREASES AND INSTABILITY REMAINS BASED AT THE SURFACE WITH
RELATIVELY SMALL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.

OVERNIGHT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS W
TX AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
QUICKLY EWD/NEWD TOWARD CENTRAL/NW TX AND WRN/CENTRAL OK LATE
TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...WHILE A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

...SE NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG A WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT...AND IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK MIDLEVEL WAVE MOVING EWD FROM NY.
STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY
PROMOTE THE FORMATION OF SMALL HAIL...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED GIVEN WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND POOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2014Z (4:14PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[thetruesms]

I'm wondering if the watch should be canceled and replaced with a new PDS Tornado Watch, seeing how the threat might last well into the night?

I'm thinking perhaps not, because of a potentially small window. The storms should quickly go linear as the cold front overtakes the dry line, decreasing the threat of strong tornadoes. But then again, I was wrong about them throwing in a moderate risk today, so maybe they're up for it!

[CrazyC83]

I'm wondering if the watch should be canceled and replaced with a new PDS Tornado Watch, seeing how the threat might last well into the night?

I'm thinking perhaps not, because of a potentially small window. The storms should quickly go linear as the cold front overtakes the dry line, decreasing the threat of strong tornadoes. But then again, I was wrong about them throwing in a moderate risk today, so maybe they're up for it!

The current watch expires at 10 pm CDT (0300Z) so they would likely have to cancel it long before then to make the upgrade.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0337
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ERN CO AND WRN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 74...

VALID 222021Z - 222115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 74 CONTINUES.

NUMEROUS SEVERE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN
UPSLOPE REGION OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS FROM ERN CO INTO WRN KS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EVOLVING WITHIN STRONGLY FORCED LEFT EXIT REGION OF
UPPER JET...AND CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW REGIME. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...LOW CLOUD BASES WITHIN
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FAVOR A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT. ONE
PARTICULARLY LONG-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELL IS LIFTING NEWD ACROSS
KIOWA COUNTY CO. THIS STORM HAS EDGED INTO WRN PLUME OF GREATER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND COULD MAINTAIN TORNADIC CHARACTERISTICS
FOR SOME TIME...ESPECIALLY IF STORM MERGERS DO NOT INTERRUPT IT/S
INFLOW.

..DARROW.. 04/22/2010

[thetruesms]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0337
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ERN CO AND WRN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 74...

VALID 222021Z - 222115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 74 CONTINUES.

NUMEROUS SEVERE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN
UPSLOPE REGION OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS FROM ERN CO INTO WRN KS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EVOLVING WITHIN STRONGLY FORCED LEFT EXIT REGION OF
UPPER JET...AND CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW REGIME. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...LOW CLOUD BASES WITHIN
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FAVOR A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT. ONE
PARTICULARLY LONG-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELL IS LIFTING NEWD ACROSS
KIOWA COUNTY CO. THIS STORM HAS EDGED INTO WRN PLUME OF GREATER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND COULD MAINTAIN TORNADIC CHARACTERISTICS
FOR SOME TIME...ESPECIALLY IF STORM MERGERS DO NOT INTERRUPT IT/S
INFLOW.

..DARROW.. 04/22/2010

Ah, the terrible chaser's dilemma - go to the better shear, or the better instability? One of my friends from school had a blog post earlier about just that topic. She decided to go to the Panhandles and the instability. I hope it works out for her

[CrazyC83]

Looking at the RUC hourly model, by mid-evening, EHI's will be around 5.0 near Amarillo with locally approaching 6.0...peak around 8 pm local time with a noticeable drop-off around 11 pm.

[Peanut432]

I'll be here in SW oklahoma waiting. Its been cloudy and cool all day so I not sure what they are seeing

[CrazyC83]

I'll be here in SW oklahoma waiting. Its been cloudy and cool all day so I not sure what they are seeing

I'm thinking the threat may be a bit farther west, around Amarillo and northward to about Garden City and perhaps Goodland.