MSLP forecast to be low during peak of 2010 Atlantic season

[cycloneye]

Derek,but 2005 had plenty of sal.

[Derek Ortt]

Derek,but 2005 had plenty of sal.

only Irene was SAL affected

The SAL disappeared after that. The dry air could be traced to the mid-latitudes, not the Sahara afterward

tell tale sign as to whether the dry air is SAL or mid latitudes... if the wave/TC is moving fast, it is SAL

[cycloneye]

The CFS model has also lower pressures in the MDR and Caribbean as ECMWF on August and September.

August



September

[Aquawind]

I really don't like that SW-NE orientation of those pressures over Florida in September..

[cycloneye]

I really don't like that SW-NE orientation of those pressures over Florida in September..

Another important thing to note Paul is the blocking pattern to the north in Canada that the models have.

[BigA]

Another important thing to note Paul is the blocking pattern to the north in Canada that the models have.

How would the blocking pattern over Canada influence tropical cyclone tracks?

[cycloneye]

Another important thing to note Paul is the blocking pattern to the north in Canada that the models have.

How would the blocking pattern over Canada influence tropical cyclone tracks?

If there is blocking up in Canada,the systems have a bee-line towards the NE Caribbean,Bahamas,Florida,GOM.

[KWT]

Yep, if you have higher then normal pressure in Canada then that means the Troughs that would normally help scope the storms for recurve won't be around as often.

It means any system that gets west of say 50-55W without starting to recurve will as Cyclonee said, have a much better chance of risking land.

It's probably part of the reason why Joe B is worried about this season...

[Blown Away]

Looking at the September map, doesn't that setup have weakness off the CONUS that would allow recurves offshore?

[boca]

Actually that map shows isobars but I'm not sure how to read it.

[brunota2003]

Looks like any storms that do recurve would ride right up the east coast, and possibly loop around if they get blocked out.

[cycloneye]

The May outlook by ECMWF for the period of July,August and September for sea level pressures continues to show no changes from past months ones and that is lower pressures in the MDR,Caribbean Sea and parts of the Western Atlantic.The blue colors indicate lower pressures while the red colors indicate higher pressures.

ECMWF May MSLP forecast for July,August and September

[ronjon]

Boy, compare April's ECM forecast for JJA with May's forecast for JAS - much darker blue across the entire tropical atlantic (>70% chance) for lower pressures - darn right scary.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/eurosip/group_euro_public/seasonal_charts_mslp!mean%20sea%20level%20pressure!tercile%20summary!2%20months!Tropics!201004!/

[Blown Away]

The May outlook by ECMWF for the period of July,August and September for sea level pressures continues to show no changes from past months ones and that is lower pressures in the MDR,Caribbean Sea and parts of the Western Atlantic.The blue colors indicate lower pressures while the red colors indicate higher pressures.

ECMWF May MSLP forecast for July,August and September

How does this forecast compare to other active years like 2005, 1998, 1995, etc?

[cycloneye]

The May outlook by ECMWF for the period of July,August and September for sea level pressures continues to show no changes from past months ones and that is lower pressures in the MDR,Caribbean Sea and parts of the Western Atlantic.The blue colors indicate lower pressures while the red colors indicate higher pressures.

ECMWF May MSLP forecast for July,August and September

How does this forecast compare to other active years like 2005, 1998, 1995, etc?

In the link to the left you can see the month section and it goes only to August 2008.

[thetruesms]

How does this forecast compare to other active years like 2005, 1998, 1995, etc?

It's not quite like what you're asking for, but here is a plot of SLP anomalies for JAS in 1995, 1998, and 2005

[cycloneye]

August September and October MSLP forecast by ECMWF

The update by ECMWF MSLP forecast for August,September and October continues to call for below average pressures in the MDR,Caribbean and GOM.

[cycloneye]

Sorry that I have more bad news about the season being very active,but the truth has to come out. If you thought that the CFS model was going to be less bullish on the lower pressures in the Atlantic ,Caribbean and GOM than ECMWF,well,is worse. The blue colors mean lower pressures and the red higher pressures.The side you have to watch in the graphics is the right side.

MSLP CFS forecast for July August and September

July



August



September

[BigA]

What do the number gradations mean on the CMS maps? Does the -0.5 line indicate that average pressures will be 0.5 mb lower than climatological average, for example?

[cycloneye]

The June forecast of MSLP from ECMWF for the peak months (ASO) of the season is out and is has not changed from the past 3 month forecasts.In other words lower pressures in the MDR,Caribbean and GOM.