Severe Weather Threat. April 21st-25th, 2010 High Risk!
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
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Re: Severe Weather Threat. April 21st-25th, 2010 Moderate Risk!
NWS Jackson has one of the strongest-worded AFD's I have ever seen:
000
FXUS64 KJAN 222029
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
329 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010
...PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY INCLUDING THE RISK FOR STRONG AND LONG-
TRACK TORNADOES...
.DISCUSSION...
AN EPISODE OF DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE ARKLAMISS
REGION AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AND EVERYONE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA SHOULD SHOULD BE AT A HIGH STATE OF READINESS FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE IMMEDIATE
ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE. THIS EVENT WILL TAKE PLACE OVER A
DURATION OF AROUND 24 HOURS AND THE VARIOUS COMPONENTS OF WHICH WILL
BE DISCUSSED BELOW.
HAZARDS: TORNADOES...SOME LONG-TRACK AND STRONG...HAIL OF GOLF BALL
SIZE OR LARGER...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS OF AT LEAST 80
MPH...AND FLASH FLOODING.
TIMING/COVERAGE: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AS EARLY AS NOON FRIDAY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL THEN ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE CWA AFTER 200 PM...AND
TRACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THE COVERAGE OF STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE SCATTERED...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55
CORRIDOR. THE COVERAGE OF STORMS COULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT WITHIN A
COUPLE HOURS PRIOR TO AND AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE NUMEROUS ON SATURDAY.
CONVECTIVE MODE: FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...PRIMARILY DISCRETE
SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED. GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTIVE MORPHOLOGY WILL TREND
TOWARD A MIX OF SUPERCELLS...BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS...AND QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FEATURING LINE ECHO
WAVE PATTERNS.
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
SYNOPTIC SET-UP...DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO FRIDAY. THE PRIMARY ASCENT REGION
MARKED BY VIGOROUS DEEP-LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WHILE TWO WEAKER LEADING WAVES
TRAVERSE THE REGION BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING.
WHILE NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THIS FIRST FEATURE...
THE ASSOCIATED ADIABATIC COOLING DUE TO FORCED ASCENT COULD HELP
WEAKEN THE ANTECEDENT CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ALOFT. THE SECOND LEAD WAVE IS PROGGED TO SUPPORT
MORE VIGOROUS ASCENT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
WHILE THE SECOND LEAD WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
A MARINE LAYER FROM THE GULF WILL SURGE NORTHWARD WITH H85 FLOW
INCREASING TO 45 KT BY 00Z SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE...LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE AREA WITH A PLUME OF H85 THETA-E
VALUES RISING TO NEAR 345K IN THE UNSTABLE SECTOR. MOISTURE
TRAJECTORIES SHOW THIS MOISTURE BEING RATHER RICH HAVING ORIGINATED
FROM THE CARIBBEAN. THE UNSTABLE SECTOR WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE CWA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 18Z FRIDAY AND WILL ENVELOP THE
ENTIRE REGION BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. GLOBAL/MESOSCALE NWP
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS MOIST LAYER LADEN WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF
1800-2200 J/KG AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITHIN THE
UNSTABLE SECTOR DUE TO FORCING FROM THE SECOND LEAD WAVE AND ALONG
ITS LEADING EDGE/WARM FRONTAL FEATURE WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED. THE UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT JET PATTERN WILL ALSO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR THIS INITIATION GIVEN THE CWA BEING IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL STREAM JET MAX...WHICH WILL HAVE MERGED
WITH THE JET MAX IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE APPROACHING
DEEP-LAYER LOW.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SURFACE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10 TO 15 KT BY
FRIDAY EVENING WITH A BROAD CONFLUENCE AXIS SETTING UP ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 00Z SAT. WIND PROFILES INDICATE VERY STRONG
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL...WITH 0-1 KM SRH FROM
200-300 M2/S2...AND 0-3 KM SRH FROM 300-500 M2/S2. MEDIAN SREF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 50 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA...AS WELL. ANY STORMS THAT FORM ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WILL QUICKLY ATTAIN SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS WITH DEEP
MESOCYCLONES. LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLOGENESIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE
HIGH 0-1 KM SRH. WHILE THESE NUMBERS CERTAINLY SUPPORT TORNADOES...
LOW-LEVEL CAPE IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SET-UP WHICH
COULD SLOW THE RATE OF TORNADOGENESIS BASED ON THE MODELS` FACE
VALUE. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING ONLY WEAK STABILITY
BELOW 950 MB WITH A NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER. ANTICIPATED LIMITED
INSOLATION AND DIABATIC HEATING IN THE UNSTABLE SECTOR PRIOR TO THE
APPROACH OF THE LEAD WAVE WILL LIKELY REDUCE THE NEAR-SURFACE STABLE
LAYER AND POTENTIALLY INCREASE THE 0-3KM CAPE BEYOND THE LESS-THAN-60
J/KG VALUES CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY RAW MODEL OUTPUT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STOUT LOW-LEVEL CAP...
PARTICULARLY BETWEEN H8 AND H7...FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
IN DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEGREE OF CINH. HOWEVER...OVERALL CAP
APPEARS TO BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE EAST...WHERE WARM FRONT WILL BE
LAST TO REACH AND SURFACE HEATING/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING WILL OF
THE SHORTEST DURATION. GIVEN CONVECTIVE INITIATION...THE PRESENCE OF
THE CAP WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A DISCRETE SUPERCELLULAR MORPHOLOGY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS
ORIENTED NEARLY ORTHOGONAL TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY OF CONCERN...BECAUSE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME
DESTABILIZING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONT. IF A STORM CROSSES
THE BOUNDARY...IT WOULD ENCOUNTER 0-1 KM SRH VALUES UP TO 400 M2/S2
AND 0-3 KM SRH VALUES UP TO 550 M2/S2 DUE TO MORE BACKED SURFACE
FLOW AND GREATER VEERING WITH HEIGHT. THIS WOULD SUBSTANTIALLY
ENHANCE THE TORNADO RISK.
AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT...SEVERE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD WAVE COULD STILL BE ONGOING MOST ANYWHERE
IN THE CWA...THOUGH COVERAGE COULD TEMPORARILY BE REDUCED BY
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE. THE DURATION OF ANY POTENTIAL
LULL IS SUFFICIENTLY SHORT SUCH THAT MAINTAINING SEVERE WORDING IS
PRUDENT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE GFS INDICATES THE LEAD WAVE
DECELERATING AND POTENTIALLY INTENSIFYING...THUS SEVERE MENTION IS
BEING MADE ALL AREAS DURING THE NIGHT.
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PRIMARY ASCENT REGION WITH THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH A RETREATING DRYLINE
OVER THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. AS SUCH...MOSTLY ALL OPERATIONAL
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW SPINNING UP ALONG THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS IN RESPONSE TO THE 325K
ISENTROPIC POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM INTERACTION WITH THE DRYLINE.
LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE WILL BACK AND STRENGTHEN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH AN INTENSE SURGE OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS OF AROUND
2 INCHES. AFTER A BRIEF DOWNWARD TREND IN THE LOW-LEVEL
HELICITY...0-1 KM SRH WILL INCREASE INTO THE 350-500 RANGE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING MERGED DRYLINE/COLD FRONT AS H85 FLOW INCREASES TO
NEARLY 60 KT IN SOME AREAS. 0-3 KM SRH SKYROCKET INTO THE 500-1000
M2/S2 RANGE. WITH A QUICKLY-ERODING CAP LATE IN THE NIGHT...NUMEROUS
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE TRACK
OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND WILL GENERALLY BE MAXIMIZED NORTHWEST OF
THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AS THE PREFRONTAL LOW-LEVEL
JET TRANSLATES EASTWARD WITH THE DEEP-LAYER CIRCULATION. WITH
SBCAPE/MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1300-1900 J/KG RANGE ON SATURDAY...A
MIXED MODE OF SUPERCELLS...QLCS WITH LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERNS...AND
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. STRONG AND LONG-TRACK
TORNADOES...HURRICANE FORCE STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS OVER 80 MPH...AND
HAIL OF GOLF BALL SIZE OR LARGER WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORMS ON SATURDAY.
SUCH HIGH VALUES OF LOW-LEVEL HELICITY THROUGHOUT THE EVENT WILL
CERTAINLY SUPPORT STRONG TORNADOES POTENTIALLY ALL THE WAY FROM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO
PARAMETER...WHICH HIGHLIGHTS AREAS OF POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES OF EF2
INTENSITY OR STRONGER...IS FORECAST TO MAX OUT AT OVER 10...EVEN
HIGHER THAN 15...AT VARIOUS TIMES DURING THE EVENT. VALUES OF AT
LEAST 1 HAVE STATISTICALLY BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH TORNADOES OF EF2
INTENSITY OR STRONGER. A VALUE OF AT LEAST 10+ IS EXCEPTIONALLY
HIGH. ADDITIONALLY...SREF IS INDICATING THE JOINT PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AT OVER 50%
FOR A LARGER PART OF THE OUTBREAK. OVERALL...THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES DURING THIS ENTIRE EVENT APPEARS TO
BE HIGH. ALSO...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UNSTABLE SECTOR INDICATE THAT THE ANGLE BETWEEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STORM-INFLOW VECTOR AND A LONG NEAR-SURFACE HODOGRAPH ARE SUGGESTIVE
OF LARGE AMOUNTS OF STREAMWISE VORTICITY BEING INGESTED INTO STORM
UPDRAFTS. SUCH CONDITIONS HAVE HAS BEEN LINKED TO PARTICULARLY
ENHANCED STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL. ALSO...THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN
FOR THE UPCOMING EVENT BEARS STRONG SIMILITUDE WITH A SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK ON 29 MARCH 1976 WITH A NEARLY IDENTICAL H5 PATTERN AND
EVEN LESS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE THAN WHAT WE HAVE FOR THE UPCOMING
CASE. THE ANALOG CASE YIELDED TWO F4 TORNADOES...ONE OF WHICH WAS
LONG-TRACK. ADDITIONALLY...WITH ROBUST CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C
LAYER...AND SOME DRY AIR ALOFT ON FRIDAY...SIGNIFICANT HAIL
PRODUCTION POSSIBLY OF BASEBALL SIZE OR LARGER...WILL BE A CONCERN
WITH ANY DEEP-LAYER MESOCYCLONES.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH AMOUNTS OVER 4 INCHES WHERE CONVECTION REPETITIVELY
MOVES OVER THE SAME LOCATION. THIS WILL LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. THE NORTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CWA WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST RISK OF THIS...WITH THE
LOCATION MODULATED BY THE LOCATION OF FRIDAY NIGHT CONVECTION. FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES WILL LIKELY BECOME REQUIRED FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. /COHEN/
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC DRYING
BEHIND THE DRIVING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REALLY BE CLEARING THE FINAL
EXPECTED SQUALL LINE TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...IT
IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT A SECONDARY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS COULD
TRY TO FORM A BRIEF LINE OF SHOWERS (OF LITTLE ADDITIONAL
CONSEQUENCE) IN OUR AREA BEHIND THE MAIN SQUALL LINE IN THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE SKIES CLEARING OUT IN THE "DRY SLOT" WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS PROBABLY NOT DIMINISHING COMPLETELY. ALTHOUGH A TRUE
COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE COMING THROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY GET
DOWN INTO THE 50S THANKS TO DRY AIR ALOFT BEING BROUGHT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING BIG SYSTEM REALLY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT DROP DOWN INTO THE ARKLAMISS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY...AND THEN MAY WAFFLE AROUND THE REGION UNTIL
DROPPING TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST A LITTLE PERTURBED WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IN THE UPPER
LEVELS QUASHED SOUTH OF THE COAST. THIS SORT OF PATTERN WOULD
PROMISE SOME ACTIVE WEATHER IF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WAS HIGH...BUT IT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SO. STILL...GIVEN RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES
DEPICTED FOR THE PERIOD...THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GET
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING IN AT LEAST ISOLATED FASHION. THE
TRUSTY EUROPEAN MODEL SUGGESTS THE BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL COME ON
TUESDAY AND I HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE...I
TENDED TO CUT LOTS OF SPURIOUS-LOOKING MEX 20 POPS DOWN TO
10S...ALTHOUGH IT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF POPS IN ANOTHER PERIOD AS WELL ONCE MODELS GET A BETTER
GRIP ON THE SITUATION. MUST ALSO MENTION THAT IF WE DO GET SOME
STORMS IN THIS PATTERN THE STEEP ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES MAY AT
LEAST GIVE SOME HAIL POTENTIAL. THE RISK FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE
ACTIVITY IN THE LONG TERM IS STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO
RIGHT NOW...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS ANOTHER CHANCE OF A BIG SYSTEM IMPACTING
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT GENERALLY AFTER THE END OF THE
CURRENT LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES MAY TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE (IN AT LEAST NORTHERN ZONES) BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN WASHING OUT NEAR THE COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY. BUT OTHER THAN THIS EXCEPTION EXPECT READINGS TO AVERAGE
AT LEAST ABOVE NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...
.AVIATION...PRIMARILY VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF I-20 08-12Z. INCREASING
CLOUD CVR BELOW FL060 XPCTD TOMORROW AFTN IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES
APPROACHING THE REGION. GUSTY S WINDS XPCTD TO DEVELOP STARTING MID
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHWRS/TS BEGINNING TO INVADE THE REGION ALONG
AND W OF THE MS RIVER TOMORROW AFTN. /BK/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 61 78 68 78 / 0 45 71 99
MERIDIAN 57 81 66 78 / 0 25 66 97
VICKSBURG 62 79 69 78 / 0 59 76 99
HATTIESBURG 60 82 68 80 / 0 25 45 90
NATCHEZ 64 79 68 77 / 0 42 61 97
GREENVILLE 62 79 66 76 / 3 66 80 100
GREENWOOD 61 80 68 77 / 0 54 71 100
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
COHEN/BB/BK
000
FXUS64 KJAN 222029
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
329 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010
...PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY INCLUDING THE RISK FOR STRONG AND LONG-
TRACK TORNADOES...
.DISCUSSION...
AN EPISODE OF DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE ARKLAMISS
REGION AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AND EVERYONE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA SHOULD SHOULD BE AT A HIGH STATE OF READINESS FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE IMMEDIATE
ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE. THIS EVENT WILL TAKE PLACE OVER A
DURATION OF AROUND 24 HOURS AND THE VARIOUS COMPONENTS OF WHICH WILL
BE DISCUSSED BELOW.
HAZARDS: TORNADOES...SOME LONG-TRACK AND STRONG...HAIL OF GOLF BALL
SIZE OR LARGER...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS OF AT LEAST 80
MPH...AND FLASH FLOODING.
TIMING/COVERAGE: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AS EARLY AS NOON FRIDAY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL THEN ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE CWA AFTER 200 PM...AND
TRACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THE COVERAGE OF STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE SCATTERED...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55
CORRIDOR. THE COVERAGE OF STORMS COULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT WITHIN A
COUPLE HOURS PRIOR TO AND AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE NUMEROUS ON SATURDAY.
CONVECTIVE MODE: FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...PRIMARILY DISCRETE
SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED. GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTIVE MORPHOLOGY WILL TREND
TOWARD A MIX OF SUPERCELLS...BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS...AND QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FEATURING LINE ECHO
WAVE PATTERNS.
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
SYNOPTIC SET-UP...DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO FRIDAY. THE PRIMARY ASCENT REGION
MARKED BY VIGOROUS DEEP-LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WHILE TWO WEAKER LEADING WAVES
TRAVERSE THE REGION BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING.
WHILE NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THIS FIRST FEATURE...
THE ASSOCIATED ADIABATIC COOLING DUE TO FORCED ASCENT COULD HELP
WEAKEN THE ANTECEDENT CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ALOFT. THE SECOND LEAD WAVE IS PROGGED TO SUPPORT
MORE VIGOROUS ASCENT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
WHILE THE SECOND LEAD WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
A MARINE LAYER FROM THE GULF WILL SURGE NORTHWARD WITH H85 FLOW
INCREASING TO 45 KT BY 00Z SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE...LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE AREA WITH A PLUME OF H85 THETA-E
VALUES RISING TO NEAR 345K IN THE UNSTABLE SECTOR. MOISTURE
TRAJECTORIES SHOW THIS MOISTURE BEING RATHER RICH HAVING ORIGINATED
FROM THE CARIBBEAN. THE UNSTABLE SECTOR WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE CWA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 18Z FRIDAY AND WILL ENVELOP THE
ENTIRE REGION BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. GLOBAL/MESOSCALE NWP
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS MOIST LAYER LADEN WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF
1800-2200 J/KG AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITHIN THE
UNSTABLE SECTOR DUE TO FORCING FROM THE SECOND LEAD WAVE AND ALONG
ITS LEADING EDGE/WARM FRONTAL FEATURE WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED. THE UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT JET PATTERN WILL ALSO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR THIS INITIATION GIVEN THE CWA BEING IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL STREAM JET MAX...WHICH WILL HAVE MERGED
WITH THE JET MAX IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE APPROACHING
DEEP-LAYER LOW.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SURFACE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10 TO 15 KT BY
FRIDAY EVENING WITH A BROAD CONFLUENCE AXIS SETTING UP ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 00Z SAT. WIND PROFILES INDICATE VERY STRONG
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL...WITH 0-1 KM SRH FROM
200-300 M2/S2...AND 0-3 KM SRH FROM 300-500 M2/S2. MEDIAN SREF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 50 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA...AS WELL. ANY STORMS THAT FORM ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WILL QUICKLY ATTAIN SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS WITH DEEP
MESOCYCLONES. LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLOGENESIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE
HIGH 0-1 KM SRH. WHILE THESE NUMBERS CERTAINLY SUPPORT TORNADOES...
LOW-LEVEL CAPE IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SET-UP WHICH
COULD SLOW THE RATE OF TORNADOGENESIS BASED ON THE MODELS` FACE
VALUE. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING ONLY WEAK STABILITY
BELOW 950 MB WITH A NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER. ANTICIPATED LIMITED
INSOLATION AND DIABATIC HEATING IN THE UNSTABLE SECTOR PRIOR TO THE
APPROACH OF THE LEAD WAVE WILL LIKELY REDUCE THE NEAR-SURFACE STABLE
LAYER AND POTENTIALLY INCREASE THE 0-3KM CAPE BEYOND THE LESS-THAN-60
J/KG VALUES CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY RAW MODEL OUTPUT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STOUT LOW-LEVEL CAP...
PARTICULARLY BETWEEN H8 AND H7...FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
IN DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEGREE OF CINH. HOWEVER...OVERALL CAP
APPEARS TO BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE EAST...WHERE WARM FRONT WILL BE
LAST TO REACH AND SURFACE HEATING/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING WILL OF
THE SHORTEST DURATION. GIVEN CONVECTIVE INITIATION...THE PRESENCE OF
THE CAP WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A DISCRETE SUPERCELLULAR MORPHOLOGY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS
ORIENTED NEARLY ORTHOGONAL TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY OF CONCERN...BECAUSE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME
DESTABILIZING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONT. IF A STORM CROSSES
THE BOUNDARY...IT WOULD ENCOUNTER 0-1 KM SRH VALUES UP TO 400 M2/S2
AND 0-3 KM SRH VALUES UP TO 550 M2/S2 DUE TO MORE BACKED SURFACE
FLOW AND GREATER VEERING WITH HEIGHT. THIS WOULD SUBSTANTIALLY
ENHANCE THE TORNADO RISK.
AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT...SEVERE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD WAVE COULD STILL BE ONGOING MOST ANYWHERE
IN THE CWA...THOUGH COVERAGE COULD TEMPORARILY BE REDUCED BY
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE. THE DURATION OF ANY POTENTIAL
LULL IS SUFFICIENTLY SHORT SUCH THAT MAINTAINING SEVERE WORDING IS
PRUDENT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE GFS INDICATES THE LEAD WAVE
DECELERATING AND POTENTIALLY INTENSIFYING...THUS SEVERE MENTION IS
BEING MADE ALL AREAS DURING THE NIGHT.
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PRIMARY ASCENT REGION WITH THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH A RETREATING DRYLINE
OVER THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. AS SUCH...MOSTLY ALL OPERATIONAL
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW SPINNING UP ALONG THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS IN RESPONSE TO THE 325K
ISENTROPIC POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM INTERACTION WITH THE DRYLINE.
LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE WILL BACK AND STRENGTHEN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH AN INTENSE SURGE OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS OF AROUND
2 INCHES. AFTER A BRIEF DOWNWARD TREND IN THE LOW-LEVEL
HELICITY...0-1 KM SRH WILL INCREASE INTO THE 350-500 RANGE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING MERGED DRYLINE/COLD FRONT AS H85 FLOW INCREASES TO
NEARLY 60 KT IN SOME AREAS. 0-3 KM SRH SKYROCKET INTO THE 500-1000
M2/S2 RANGE. WITH A QUICKLY-ERODING CAP LATE IN THE NIGHT...NUMEROUS
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE TRACK
OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND WILL GENERALLY BE MAXIMIZED NORTHWEST OF
THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AS THE PREFRONTAL LOW-LEVEL
JET TRANSLATES EASTWARD WITH THE DEEP-LAYER CIRCULATION. WITH
SBCAPE/MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1300-1900 J/KG RANGE ON SATURDAY...A
MIXED MODE OF SUPERCELLS...QLCS WITH LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERNS...AND
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. STRONG AND LONG-TRACK
TORNADOES...HURRICANE FORCE STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS OVER 80 MPH...AND
HAIL OF GOLF BALL SIZE OR LARGER WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORMS ON SATURDAY.
SUCH HIGH VALUES OF LOW-LEVEL HELICITY THROUGHOUT THE EVENT WILL
CERTAINLY SUPPORT STRONG TORNADOES POTENTIALLY ALL THE WAY FROM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO
PARAMETER...WHICH HIGHLIGHTS AREAS OF POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES OF EF2
INTENSITY OR STRONGER...IS FORECAST TO MAX OUT AT OVER 10...EVEN
HIGHER THAN 15...AT VARIOUS TIMES DURING THE EVENT. VALUES OF AT
LEAST 1 HAVE STATISTICALLY BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH TORNADOES OF EF2
INTENSITY OR STRONGER. A VALUE OF AT LEAST 10+ IS EXCEPTIONALLY
HIGH. ADDITIONALLY...SREF IS INDICATING THE JOINT PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AT OVER 50%
FOR A LARGER PART OF THE OUTBREAK. OVERALL...THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES DURING THIS ENTIRE EVENT APPEARS TO
BE HIGH. ALSO...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UNSTABLE SECTOR INDICATE THAT THE ANGLE BETWEEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STORM-INFLOW VECTOR AND A LONG NEAR-SURFACE HODOGRAPH ARE SUGGESTIVE
OF LARGE AMOUNTS OF STREAMWISE VORTICITY BEING INGESTED INTO STORM
UPDRAFTS. SUCH CONDITIONS HAVE HAS BEEN LINKED TO PARTICULARLY
ENHANCED STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL. ALSO...THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN
FOR THE UPCOMING EVENT BEARS STRONG SIMILITUDE WITH A SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK ON 29 MARCH 1976 WITH A NEARLY IDENTICAL H5 PATTERN AND
EVEN LESS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE THAN WHAT WE HAVE FOR THE UPCOMING
CASE. THE ANALOG CASE YIELDED TWO F4 TORNADOES...ONE OF WHICH WAS
LONG-TRACK. ADDITIONALLY...WITH ROBUST CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C
LAYER...AND SOME DRY AIR ALOFT ON FRIDAY...SIGNIFICANT HAIL
PRODUCTION POSSIBLY OF BASEBALL SIZE OR LARGER...WILL BE A CONCERN
WITH ANY DEEP-LAYER MESOCYCLONES.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH AMOUNTS OVER 4 INCHES WHERE CONVECTION REPETITIVELY
MOVES OVER THE SAME LOCATION. THIS WILL LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. THE NORTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CWA WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST RISK OF THIS...WITH THE
LOCATION MODULATED BY THE LOCATION OF FRIDAY NIGHT CONVECTION. FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES WILL LIKELY BECOME REQUIRED FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. /COHEN/
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC DRYING
BEHIND THE DRIVING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REALLY BE CLEARING THE FINAL
EXPECTED SQUALL LINE TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...IT
IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT A SECONDARY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS COULD
TRY TO FORM A BRIEF LINE OF SHOWERS (OF LITTLE ADDITIONAL
CONSEQUENCE) IN OUR AREA BEHIND THE MAIN SQUALL LINE IN THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE SKIES CLEARING OUT IN THE "DRY SLOT" WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS PROBABLY NOT DIMINISHING COMPLETELY. ALTHOUGH A TRUE
COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE COMING THROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY GET
DOWN INTO THE 50S THANKS TO DRY AIR ALOFT BEING BROUGHT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING BIG SYSTEM REALLY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT DROP DOWN INTO THE ARKLAMISS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY...AND THEN MAY WAFFLE AROUND THE REGION UNTIL
DROPPING TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST A LITTLE PERTURBED WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IN THE UPPER
LEVELS QUASHED SOUTH OF THE COAST. THIS SORT OF PATTERN WOULD
PROMISE SOME ACTIVE WEATHER IF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WAS HIGH...BUT IT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SO. STILL...GIVEN RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES
DEPICTED FOR THE PERIOD...THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GET
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING IN AT LEAST ISOLATED FASHION. THE
TRUSTY EUROPEAN MODEL SUGGESTS THE BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL COME ON
TUESDAY AND I HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE...I
TENDED TO CUT LOTS OF SPURIOUS-LOOKING MEX 20 POPS DOWN TO
10S...ALTHOUGH IT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF POPS IN ANOTHER PERIOD AS WELL ONCE MODELS GET A BETTER
GRIP ON THE SITUATION. MUST ALSO MENTION THAT IF WE DO GET SOME
STORMS IN THIS PATTERN THE STEEP ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES MAY AT
LEAST GIVE SOME HAIL POTENTIAL. THE RISK FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE
ACTIVITY IN THE LONG TERM IS STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO
RIGHT NOW...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS ANOTHER CHANCE OF A BIG SYSTEM IMPACTING
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT GENERALLY AFTER THE END OF THE
CURRENT LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES MAY TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE (IN AT LEAST NORTHERN ZONES) BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN WASHING OUT NEAR THE COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY. BUT OTHER THAN THIS EXCEPTION EXPECT READINGS TO AVERAGE
AT LEAST ABOVE NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...
.AVIATION...PRIMARILY VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF I-20 08-12Z. INCREASING
CLOUD CVR BELOW FL060 XPCTD TOMORROW AFTN IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES
APPROACHING THE REGION. GUSTY S WINDS XPCTD TO DEVELOP STARTING MID
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHWRS/TS BEGINNING TO INVADE THE REGION ALONG
AND W OF THE MS RIVER TOMORROW AFTN. /BK/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 61 78 68 78 / 0 45 71 99
MERIDIAN 57 81 66 78 / 0 25 66 97
VICKSBURG 62 79 69 78 / 0 59 76 99
HATTIESBURG 60 82 68 80 / 0 25 45 90
NATCHEZ 64 79 68 77 / 0 42 61 97
GREENVILLE 62 79 66 76 / 3 66 80 100
GREENWOOD 61 80 68 77 / 0 54 71 100
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
COHEN/BB/BK
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Thu Apr 22, 2010 3:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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thetruesms
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 844
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2007 1:14 pm
- Location: Tallahasee, FL
- Contact:
Re: Severe Weather Threat. April 21st-25th, 2010 Moderate Risk!
AN EPISODE OF DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE ARKLAMISS
REGION AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AND EVERYONE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA SHOULD SHOULD BE AT A HIGH STATE OF READINESS FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE IMMEDIATE
ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE. THIS EVENT WILL TAKE PLACE OVER A
DURATION OF AROUND 24 HOURS AND THE VARIOUS COMPONENTS OF WHICH WILL
BE DISCUSSED BELOW.
I have never seen a warning like this one prior to the syn outlook.
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thetruesms
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 844
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2007 1:14 pm
- Location: Tallahasee, FL
- Contact:
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srainhoutx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6919
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
- Location: Haywood County, NC
- Contact:
Re: Severe Weather Threat. April 21st-25th, 2010 Moderate Risk!
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
429 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
KEARNY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
* UNTIL 500 PM CDT/400 PM MDT/
* AT 426 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 8 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF KENDALL. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKIN.
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
429 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
KEARNY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
* UNTIL 500 PM CDT/400 PM MDT/
* AT 426 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 8 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF KENDALL. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKIN.
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Well this is a turn-up for the books, wasn't really expecting this to end up being a moderate but there are a few tornado warnings out even now!
TORNADO WARNING
COC001-005-222145-
/O.NEW.KBOU.TO.W.0005.100422T2057Z-100422T2145Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
257 PM MDT THU APR 22 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ARAPAHOE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
* UNTIL 345 PM MDT
* AT 257 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 2 MILES WEST OF
STRASBURG...OR 33 MILES EAST OF DENVER. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
STRASBURG...MANILA VILLAGE AND BENNETT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
TORNADO WARNING
COC001-005-222145-
/O.NEW.KBOU.TO.W.0005.100422T2057Z-100422T2145Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
257 PM MDT THU APR 22 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ARAPAHOE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
* UNTIL 345 PM MDT
* AT 257 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 2 MILES WEST OF
STRASBURG...OR 33 MILES EAST OF DENVER. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
STRASBURG...MANILA VILLAGE AND BENNETT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
326 PM MDT THU APR 22 2010
COC061-222200-
/O.CON.KPUB.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-100422T2200Z/
KIOWA CO-
326 PM MDT THU APR 22 2010
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL KIOWA COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM MDT...
AT 322 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HASWELL...OR 37 MILES NORTHEAST OF LA JUNTA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
IN ADDITION...AT 311 PM NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN HASWELL
WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HASWELL.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
326 PM MDT THU APR 22 2010
COC061-222200-
/O.CON.KPUB.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-100422T2200Z/
KIOWA CO-
326 PM MDT THU APR 22 2010
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL KIOWA COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM MDT...
AT 322 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HASWELL...OR 37 MILES NORTHEAST OF LA JUNTA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
IN ADDITION...AT 311 PM NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN HASWELL
WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HASWELL.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
TORNADO WARNING
COC005-039-222145-
/O.NEW.KBOU.TO.W.0006.100422T2129Z-100422T2145Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
329 PM MDT THU APR 22 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL ELBERT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
EASTERN ARAPAHOE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
* UNTIL 345 PM MDT
* AT 329 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF DEER TRAIL...OR 29 MILES NORTHWEST OF LIMON. THIS
STORM WAS MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO DEER TRAIL.
COC005-039-222145-
/O.NEW.KBOU.TO.W.0006.100422T2129Z-100422T2145Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
329 PM MDT THU APR 22 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL ELBERT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
EASTERN ARAPAHOE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
* UNTIL 345 PM MDT
* AT 329 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF DEER TRAIL...OR 29 MILES NORTHWEST OF LIMON. THIS
STORM WAS MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO DEER TRAIL.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather Threat. April 21st-25th, 2010 Moderate Risk!
WWUS53 KDDC 222151
SVSDDC
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
451 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010
KSC093-222200-
/O.CON.KDDC.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-100422T2200Z/
KEARNY KS-
451 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KEARNY COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM
CDT...
AT 448 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED NUMEROUS PUBLIC
REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECIEVED OF A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
TORNADO...ABOUT 6 MILES WEST OF LAKIN. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS
TORNADIC STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKIN...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF KEARNY COUNTY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS CONFIRMED! TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR
THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.
&&
LAT...LON 37006 10147 3780 10150 3792 10153 3825 10128
3779 10112
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 222DEG 29KT 3793 10134
$$
RUSSELL
SVSDDC
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
451 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010
KSC093-222200-
/O.CON.KDDC.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-100422T2200Z/
KEARNY KS-
451 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KEARNY COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM
CDT...
AT 448 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED NUMEROUS PUBLIC
REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECIEVED OF A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
TORNADO...ABOUT 6 MILES WEST OF LAKIN. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS
TORNADIC STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKIN...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF KEARNY COUNTY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS CONFIRMED! TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR
THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.
&&
LAT...LON 37006 10147 3780 10150 3792 10153 3825 10128
3779 10112
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 222DEG 29KT 3793 10134
$$
RUSSELL
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0338
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS TO SWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 222156Z - 222230Z
ONE OR TWO WATCHES ARE BEING CONSIDERED ACROSS SRN KS INTO SWRN MO
AND PERHAPS PARTS OF FAR NRN OK.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A COUPLE OF ONGOING TSTM CLUSTERS
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MO W/SWWD INTO ERN KS...WITH ADDITIONAL
STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SWRN FLANK OF THIS ACTIVITY
IN ERN/SERN KS. THE COOLING/STABILIZING EFFECTS FROM THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MO WWD THROUGH FAR SRN KS TO A SURFACE LOW OVER EXTREME SERN
CO. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRIMARILY WEAK WITH EWD EXTENT INTO ERN
KS/WRN-SWRN MO...STRONG WLY EFFECTIVE SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LINE SEGMENTS
WITH A POTENTIAL THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...
ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PER SGF VWP AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES 100-200 M2/S2
ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER ERN KS INTO WEST CENTRAL/SWRN MO.
FARTHER W...INSTABILITY IS GREATER GIVEN GREATER INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KS/. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD FROM THE
NM/TX BORDER REGION INTO SRN KS THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW ONGOING
STORMS...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE TX PANHANDLE TO SWRN KS TO
SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40
KT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT
THREATS FOR TORNADOES...HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
..PETERS.. 04/22/2010
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39120016 38859854 38419702 38189550 38149456 38149345
37709309 36919284 36589418 36769571 36849777 36799922
39120016
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS TO SWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 222156Z - 222230Z
ONE OR TWO WATCHES ARE BEING CONSIDERED ACROSS SRN KS INTO SWRN MO
AND PERHAPS PARTS OF FAR NRN OK.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A COUPLE OF ONGOING TSTM CLUSTERS
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MO W/SWWD INTO ERN KS...WITH ADDITIONAL
STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SWRN FLANK OF THIS ACTIVITY
IN ERN/SERN KS. THE COOLING/STABILIZING EFFECTS FROM THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MO WWD THROUGH FAR SRN KS TO A SURFACE LOW OVER EXTREME SERN
CO. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRIMARILY WEAK WITH EWD EXTENT INTO ERN
KS/WRN-SWRN MO...STRONG WLY EFFECTIVE SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LINE SEGMENTS
WITH A POTENTIAL THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...
ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PER SGF VWP AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES 100-200 M2/S2
ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER ERN KS INTO WEST CENTRAL/SWRN MO.
FARTHER W...INSTABILITY IS GREATER GIVEN GREATER INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KS/. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD FROM THE
NM/TX BORDER REGION INTO SRN KS THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW ONGOING
STORMS...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE TX PANHANDLE TO SWRN KS TO
SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40
KT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT
THREATS FOR TORNADOES...HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
..PETERS.. 04/22/2010
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39120016 38859854 38419702 38189550 38149456 38149345
37709309 36919284 36589418 36769571 36849777 36799922
39120016
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:The Lakin storm has really intense rotation.
I am watching a couple of streams (Randy Cooper the one I am on now) from right there and they do not see anything. From their position on Spotter Network I thought there were in danger especially with the warning indicating a large tornado on the ground.
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Cookie
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Re: Re:
weunice wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:The Lakin storm has really intense rotation.
I am watching a couple of streams (Randy Cooper the one I am on now) from right there and they do not see anything. From their position on Spotter Network I thought there were in danger especially with the warning indicating a large tornado on the ground.
you got a link mate?
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Re: Re:
Cookie wrote:weunice wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:The Lakin storm has really intense rotation.
I am watching a couple of streams (Randy Cooper the one I am on now) from right there and they do not see anything. From their position on Spotter Network I thought there were in danger especially with the warning indicating a large tornado on the ground.
you got a link mate?
http://www.severestudios.com/livechase - top stream
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0339
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY/SRN NEB PANHANDLE/FAR NERN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 222209Z - 222345Z
STRONG TO SVR THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN CO WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NWD
TOWARD SERN WY...THE SRN NEB PANHANDLE...AND FAR NERN CO.
HOWEVER...DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...A WW DOES NOT APPEAR
NECESSARY.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AT 22Z INDICATES SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS
MOVING NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF ERN CO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE NRN EDGE OF TORNADO WATCH 74 DURING THE NEXT HR OR SO.
MEANWHILE...A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUES TO
SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ABOVE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES
AROUND 500 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF SERN WY/SRN NEB PANHANDLE AND FAR
NERN CO DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY BE OFFSET BY
CLOUDY SKIES AND STRATIFORM RAIN OCCURRING AHEAD OF STRONGER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WHICH WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING.
HODOGRAPHS FROM AREA VWP/S AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS GIVEN
FAVORABLE LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION ANTICIPATED...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...WHICH WILL LIKELY NEGATE THE NEED FOR A WW.
..GARNER.. 04/22/2010
ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40490209 40960353 41000516 41520535 41690418 41570305
41270215 40920193 40490209
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY/SRN NEB PANHANDLE/FAR NERN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 222209Z - 222345Z
STRONG TO SVR THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN CO WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NWD
TOWARD SERN WY...THE SRN NEB PANHANDLE...AND FAR NERN CO.
HOWEVER...DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...A WW DOES NOT APPEAR
NECESSARY.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AT 22Z INDICATES SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS
MOVING NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF ERN CO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE NRN EDGE OF TORNADO WATCH 74 DURING THE NEXT HR OR SO.
MEANWHILE...A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUES TO
SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ABOVE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES
AROUND 500 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF SERN WY/SRN NEB PANHANDLE AND FAR
NERN CO DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY BE OFFSET BY
CLOUDY SKIES AND STRATIFORM RAIN OCCURRING AHEAD OF STRONGER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WHICH WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING.
HODOGRAPHS FROM AREA VWP/S AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS GIVEN
FAVORABLE LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION ANTICIPATED...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...WHICH WILL LIKELY NEGATE THE NEED FOR A WW.
..GARNER.. 04/22/2010
ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40490209 40960353 41000516 41520535 41690418 41570305
41270215 40920193 40490209
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