12z UKMET ...

Stormsfury · #1 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Aug 10, 2003 1:38 pm

I need some consensus from others on this one, because I don't think the UKMET is keying in on 91L. In fact, IMO, I believe it's keying in on the disturbance that came off of Africa a few days ago that's SE of the Invest. (Look at the location of the development - Compare it to the UKMET run vs. visible satellite imagery)

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukmettc2.cg ... =Animation

http://orbit-net.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/a ... loope.html

#2 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sun Aug 10, 2003 1:47 pm

I agree with you SF. The UKMET definitely looks to me like it is the TW to the SE of the ULL at 24N, 58W that it is keying in on. The beginning of the development in the model is well S and E of where the ULL already is .

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Aug 10, 2003 2:39 pm

After looking at the run from UK that is the wave.

Toni - 574 · #4 Postby **Toni - 574** » Sun Aug 10, 2003 3:33 pm

I'm not real good at reading the models , but after another look, it sure could be the wave behind it, or the UKMET is 12 hrs behind.

Stormsfury · #5 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Aug 10, 2003 3:37 pm

Toni - 574 wrote:I'm not real good at reading the models , but after another look, it sure could be the wave behind it, or the UKMET is 12 hrs behind.

This run was run at 12z (8 am this morning) and according to the consensus, it's the belief that it's keying in on the tropical wave behind Invest 91L.

Most of the other guidance are taking 91L more towards Central Florida to the Carolina Coast. That why I originally started this thread because it originated so much farther south than 91L (or developed) and raised my curiousity.

SF

ColdFront77 · #6 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sun Aug 10, 2003 3:46 pm

What happen to the "Great Plains-Bermuda High 'hook up'" that was mentioned yesterday?

Sounds like the forecast changed, at least for now.

Stormsfury · #7 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Aug 10, 2003 3:50 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:What happen to the "Great Plains-Bermuda High 'hook up'" that was mentioned yesterday?

Sounds like the forecast changed, at least for now.

The merger is going to come about from the Great Lakes high building down to merge with the Bermuda High retrogrades westward.

SF

ColdFront77 · #8 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sun Aug 10, 2003 3:55 pm

Right, I don't see how a low pressure system can make a "right turn" up the east coast to North Carolina with a high pressure system toward that region.

Toni - 574 · #9 Postby **Toni - 574** » Sun Aug 10, 2003 4:26 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
Toni - 574 wrote:I'm not real good at reading the models , but after another look, it sure could be the wave behind it, or the UKMET is 12 hrs behind.

This run was run at 12z (8 am this morning) and according to the consensus, it's the belief that it's keying in on the tropical wave behind Invest 91L.

Most of the other guidance are taking 91L more towards Central Florida to the Carolina Coast. That why I originally started this thread because it originated so much farther south than 91L (or developed) and raised my curiousity.

SF

Thanks SF, that was a very good observation and catch! Now the million $$ question, do you think that 91L will develop and how are these 2 systems going to relate with each other? And oh yea, while I'm at it why has the other models not picked up on the other wave yet? I know that is a lot of questions and it is way too early to know for sure, just looking for your best guess. :wink:

ameriwx2003 · #10 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Sun Aug 10, 2003 4:51 pm

SF.. hmmmmm YOU BRING UP AN INTERESTING POINT. I am wondering though if the MLB Florida AFD helps explain the situation. The UKMET may be locking onto the mid-level reflection talked about in the AFD?. An excerpt of MLB AFD below.

ONE PROBLEM IS THAT BEING
UNDER A TUTT TYPE H25 LOW...SFC DEVELOPMENT UNDER THIS SCENARIO CAN
BE MESSY AND/OR NOT PAN OUT AS GUIDANCE MIGHT SUGGEST.

WHAT IS CURRENTLY OUT THERE ATTM IS A WEAK SFC LOW WHICH SLIPPED
SOUTH INTO A BREACH IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BTWN 45-50W. THE BREACH
PINCHED INTO A TUTT LOW AND IS NOW RETROGRADING WWD BENEATH THE WEST
ATLC PORTION OF THE RIDGE...CARRYING THE SFC LOW WITH IT ON IT'S
NORTH SIDE. OBVIOUS SFC LOW NR 26N54W...SHEARED BY THE EASTERLIES ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE TUTT...AND A MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE TUTT
LOW CENTER NEAR 23N55W.

WITH THE H50 RIDGE EXPANDING WWD...THE EVOLUTION OF THE H25 LOW...
WHICH THE GLOBALS ARE CONSISTENT IN PULLING BACK SW-WARD INTO THE
CARIB...WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING WHAT FORM/STRENGTH THE SYS WILL
HAVE. BUT EXPECT AT LEAST AN INVERTED TROUGH TO BE APPROACHING THE
BAHAMAS AND FL LATER THIS WEEK (WED/THU). WE HAVE SEVERAL DAYS TO
MONITOR WHAT MAY OR MAY NOT DEVELOP TO OUR EAST. ONCE AGAIN...IN
SITUATIONS SUCH AS THIS...IT IS AN EXCELLENT TIME FOR THOSE WHO HAVE
NOT YET UPDATED THEIR HURRICANE SUPPLY KIT AND ACTION PLAN TO DO SO
EARLY IN CASE ANY DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE TAKE PLACE.

Stormsfury · #11 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Aug 10, 2003 5:12 pm

Toni-574 wrote:Thanks SF, that was a very good observation and catch! Now the million $$ question, do you think that 91L will develop and how are these 2 systems going to relate with each other? And oh yea, while I'm at it why has the other models not picked up on the other wave yet? I know that is a lot of questions and it is way too early to know for sure, just looking for your best guess.

I don't really have a best guess. On the last light visible satellite imagery, I noticed (which I put in the 5:30 pm Storm2k Tropical Weather Outlook) the possibility of mutliple swirls imbedded within a large-scale cyclonic environment when I noticed a second swirl just SE of the ULL). My best guess would be an initial subtropical phase (due to ULL interaction). The primary low pressure area was analyzed at 1019mb at 25.8ºN, 58.8ºW. However, this secondary swirl is noted around 21-22ºN, 54º-55ºW. The models are indicating, though, it's heading towards Florida.

ameriwx2003 wrote:SF.. hmmmmm YOU BRING UP AN INTERESTING POINT. I am wondering though if the MLB Florida AFD helps explain the situation. The UKMET may be locking onto the mid-level reflection talked about in the AFD?. An excerpt of MLB AFD below.

Dunno, but it's good to know the MLB is right on top of a tedious situation and fully aware that their confidence isn't exactly high, either. The AFD mentions more possible scenarios and the models are just that. Guidance.
At the same time, the UKMET goes against the overall model consensus, and may end up having to be an outlier ... but watch the trends ... watch the trends ... We have some time to watch the guidance. So here's what to watch for. Let's see if the other model guidance trends in the UKMET's way, or if the UKMET suddenly shifts on the 0z run.

SF

ameriwx2003 · #12 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Sun Aug 10, 2003 5:17 pm

SF, your correct. The MLB forecasters tend to really put alot in their discussions. Also in that discussion it was mentioned this type of set-up for development can be messy and not go according to what guidance says. One thing that appears to be ahppening though is that anything that does form it sure looks like will be Florida bound. IMHO:).

Rainband · #13 Postby **Rainband** » Sun Aug 10, 2003 5:25 pm

Will be interseting to see if the trend for Florida continues..anyone know long-range upper flow outlook. Meaning once this "if" crosses Florida..what then?? I am asking for obvious reasons :o

Stormsfury · #14 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Aug 10, 2003 5:28 pm

Rainband wrote:Will be interseting to see if the trend for Florida continues..anyone know long-range upper flow outlook. Meaning once this "if" crosses Florida..what then?? I am asking for obvious reasons :o

Heads into the GOM.

Rainband · #15 Postby **Rainband** » Sun Aug 10, 2003 5:31 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
Rainband wrote:Will be interseting to see if the trend for Florida continues..anyone know long-range upper flow outlook. Meaning once this "if" crosses Florida..what then?? I am asking for obvious reasons :o

Heads into the GOM.

I know that but does it continue west or stall or go north..yada yada!! I know it's a long way out..just wondering :wink:

Stormsfury · #16 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Aug 10, 2003 5:38 pm

Rainband wrote:
Stormsfury wrote:
Rainband wrote:Will be interseting to see if the trend for Florida continues..anyone know long-range upper flow outlook. Meaning once this "if" crosses Florida..what then?? I am asking for obvious reasons :o

Heads into the GOM.
I know that but does it continue west or stall or go north..yada yada!! I know it's a long way out..just wondering

Good question. :lol:

The end of the tropical model runs have it continuing west at the end of the 5 day period.

SF

Rainband · #17 Postby **Rainband** » Sun Aug 10, 2003 5:42 pm

Thanks for the info..We are wet and wetter here :lol:

and although I love weather..I don't want any systems or even waves to add to our totals anytime soon!! The west nile problem is really gonna be bad all through the east this year!!! :o

Stormsfury · #18 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Aug 11, 2003 10:16 am

Amazingly, yesterday's 12z UKMET was much further south than the rest of the globals in regards to initialization and what I originally thought, might have been the tropical wave that came off of Africa several days ago, turns out to be that it might have just picked up on the secondary LLS to the SE of the ULL ...

SF

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