Severe Weather Threat. April 21st-25th, 2010 High Risk!

[Dave]

MIDLAND TX-
1055 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MIDLAND COUNTY...

AT 1049 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GREENWOOD...OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF STANTON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
NORTHEASTERN MIDLAND COUNTY AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MIDLAND COUNTY.

[vbhoutex]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1051 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN JEWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
EASTERN SMITH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
WEST CENTRAL NUCKOLLS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
WEBSTER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1049 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF LEBANON...OR 30 MILES NORTHWEST
OF BELOIT...AND MOVING NORTH AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELLAIRE...LEBANON...ESBON...INAVALE...RED CLOUD...GUIDE ROCK...
COWLES...ROSEMONT AND BLADEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1128 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN COTTLE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.
NORTHERN KING COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.
NORTHEASTERN DICKENS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.

* UNTIL 1215 AM CDT

* AT 1127 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6
MILES SOUTH OF DUMONT...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUTHRIE...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE FINNEY...
DELWIN...GROW...CHALK AND HACKBERRY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. IF YOU CANNOT GET UNDERGROUND...GO
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS.

[vbhoutex]

I'm out for the night.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1130 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN UPTON COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...
REAGAN COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1230 AM CDT

* AT 1121 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
RANKIN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
TEXON...
BEST...
STILES...
BIG LAKE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

[Dave]

I'm out for the night.

I'll be up for another hour or so.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1133 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CROCKETT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1215 AM CDT

* AT 1131 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 28
MILES NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSECTION OF US-190 AND HIGHWAY 137...OR
11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RANKIN...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
THE INTERSECTION OF US-190 AND HIGHWAY 137 BY 1215 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0344
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL CO/WRN AND CENTRAL KS INTO PARTS OF
SWRN-SRN NEB

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 76...

VALID 230417Z - 230515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 76 CONTINUES.

...ERN EXTENT OF WW 76 INTO ERN-NRN KS AND SRN NEB...
OVERALL TRENDS IN LIGHTNING DATA AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SUGGEST
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHING ACROSS MUCH OF WW 76.
THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS FAR ERN PARTS OF THIS WATCH AND INTO ERN
KS/SRN NEB WHERE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR MORE PERSISTENT TSTM COVERAGE
SHOULD EXIST OVERNIGHT.

AT 03Z...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT
NWD ACROSS WRN KS /NORTH OF GREAT BEND/...WHILE THE ERN EXTENT HAS
REMAINED MORE QUASI-STATIONARY FROM SERN KS INTO SWRN MO AND NERN
AR. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE STRONGEST STORM WITHIN WW 76 WAS
LOCATED OVER TREGO COUNTY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. STRONG SLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL KS
OVERNIGHT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG MASS FLUX INTO NRN KS/SRN NEB WHICH
IS LIKELY UNDERWAY GIVEN EXTENSIVE AREA OF TSTMS CURRENTLY ACROSS
THIS REGION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 7 C/KM AND MUCAPE 500-1000
J/KG COMBINED WITH STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
LONGER LIVED UPDRAFTS WITH AN ATTENDANT HAIL THREAT.

...SWRN PART OF WW 76...
THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A HAIL THREAT AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT /EVIDENT BY ENHANCED CLOUD BAND TRACKING NNEWD ALONG ERN
NM/TX BORDER/ SPREADS NEWD INTO AREA OF MODEST MUCAPE AROUND 1000
J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KT.

..PETERS.. 04/23/2010

[Dave]

1157 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 AM CDT
FOR REAGAN COUNTY...

AT 1149 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR BEST...OR ABOUT 11 MILES WEST OF BIG LAKE...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...BIG
LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SEEK
SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

[Dave]

REAGAN TX-
1213 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN REAGAN COUNTY...

AT 1207 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR BIG LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
SOUTHEASTERN REAGAN COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1214 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
FOARD COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...
HARDEMAN COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN WILBARGER COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...
SOUTHERN HARMON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 100 AM CDT

* AT 1214 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES WEST OF GOODLETT
TO 13 MILES SOUTH OF GOODLETT TO 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CROWELL...
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CHILLICOTHE...COPPER BREAKS STATE
PARK...CROWELL...ELDORADO...ELMER...FARGO...GOODLETT...GOULD...
LOCKETT...MARGARET...MCQUEEN...MEDICINE MOUND...ODELL...OLUSTEE...
QUANAH...RAYLAND...THALIA AND VERNON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH NO ADVANCE WARNING.
MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STORM SHELTER... BASEMENT OR STURDY BUILDING IF
A TORNADO IS SIGHTED.

&&

[Dave]

I'm outta here till sometime later today. Take care everyone!

[brunota2003]

Have you guys seen the new Day 2 Outlook? That is a huge moderate risk area, and honestly, I wouldn't be shocked if we have our first High Risk out of that tomorrow. They are forecasting a pretty decent tornado outbreak, and it gives me the chills.

[KWT]

Yeah both day 1 and day 2 are now moderates so it sure looks like the core of the tornado season has finally arrived now after yesterdays moderate...

I've got a feeling things are about to ramp up in terms of tornado numbers.

[thetruesms]

The number of my friends who saw multiple tornadoes yesterday makes me extremely jealous

[srainhoutx]

Dont see these too often from the SPC. There also are some very strongly worded AFD's out this morning for areas in the Moderate Risk. Well worth the read. Stay Safe everyone! Looks like a long weekend ahead...

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0550 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE
NORTHEAST TEXAS

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...ERN PORTIONS OF
THE SRN PLAINS...THE MID MS VALLEY AND NEB

AN OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW OVER SRN CO WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH WRN AND
NRN KS TODAY AND TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD
THROUGH THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
THROUGH OK AND TX REACHING THE ERN PARTS OF THESE STATES LATE
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH ERN NEB...NRN MO AND IA.


INFLUX OF WARM...MOIST AIR WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD NWD
THROUGH ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY ALONG A STRONG SWLY LOW-LEVEL
JET. THE RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
DESTABILIZING INFLUENCE...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER
MUCH OF THIS AREA TODAY. A CAPPING INVERSION WILL INITIALLY SERVE TO
INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG STORMS. HOWEVER...A ZONE OF
INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF EWD
MOVING UPPER TROUGH MAY HELP TO WEAKEN THE CAP ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS LATE MORNING. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO IN
EXCESS OF 50 KT AND BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES.
A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS STORMS DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

A SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH TX RESULTING IN A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.


..DIAL.. 04/23/2010

[srainhoutx]

Memphis now in Moderate Risk Area...





DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TX...NORTHERN LA...MUCH OF AR...NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MS...AND WESTERN TN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE ARKLATEX AND
LOWER MS VALLEY...ARCING NORTHWESTWARD INTO NEB....

...REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TORNADOES IS POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...

...TX/LA/AR/MS/TN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE ROTATING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE MS VALLEY. ONE SUCH FEATURE APPEARS TO BE TRACKING ACROSS EAST
TX WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCREASING. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF AR/LA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY. A COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RAPID
INFLUX OF NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG...AND HELP TO PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. THE
SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION SHOWN ON THE 12Z LCH SOUNDING IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO LARGE SCALE FORCING AND
COOLING...FURTHER HELPING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM SEVERAL MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK
AREA /ESRH VALUES OF 300-500 M2/S2 SHOWN BY 00Z/. THE COMBINATION
OF DISCRETE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...AMPLE CAPE AND LAPSE
RATES...STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND HIGH HELICITY VALUES GIVE
CONFIDENCE IN MAINTAINING THE FORECAST OF MULTIPLE TORNADOES /SOME
STRONG/ TODAY OVER THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST
RISK APPEARS TO EXTEND ACROSS NORTHERN LA/SOUTHERN AR TO NEAR MEM.
NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT OF SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT IS UNCLEAR AND WILL BE
MODULATED BY RETURN SPEED OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY INTO THAT
REGION.

...NEB/KS/MO THIS AFTERNOON...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEB INTO EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO.
SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING AND DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT WILL HELP TO
ERODE CAP AND LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ORIENTATION OF DEEP-SHEAR VECTOR NORMAL TO THE
BOUNDARY SUGGEST THE DISCRETE INITIATION IS LIKELY...WITH SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES TODAY.
OTHERWISE...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING.

...EAST TX/LA/AR OVERNIGHT...
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN AZ IS FORECAST TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND ROTATE INTO TX BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER EAST TX...WITH STORMS RACING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY 12Z. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE THE START OF ANOTHER VERY ACTIVE SEVERE
WEATHER DAY OVER PARTS OF MS/LA/TN ON SATURDAY.

..HART/SMITH.. 04/23/2010

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0347
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0828 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...NRN LA...SRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 231328Z - 231430Z

SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS NERN TX. INCREASING
DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT
FOR SUPERCELLS...PRODUCING ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER. A TORNADO
WATCH APPEARS PROBABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

TSTM INITIATION HAS RECENTLY COMMENCED WITHIN A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL
WARM THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS NERN TX. 12Z SHV AND FWD RAOBS DEPICT
LITTLE IF ANY CAPPING WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1200 J/KG. GRADUAL
DESTABILIZATION WITHIN STRONG SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL MAY BE MARGINAL IN
THE NEAR-TERM GIVEN ONGOING DEVELOPMENT N OF SECONDARY BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER SERN TX/SRN LA...OVERALL THREAT SHOULD INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND WILL NECESSITATE A WW ISSUANCE.

..GRAMS.. 04/23/2010


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...FWD...

[CrazyC83]

Either today or tomorrow could see a High Risk issued.

I would not be surprised at all if that watch is a PDS watch.

[brunota2003]

Does anyone have the soundings for the areas in the MDT?