brunota2003 wrote:Does anyone have the soundings for the areas in the MDT?
Click on the blue stars to the left for the loaction you want to see...
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/soundi ... 42312_OBS/
Severe Weather Threat. April 21st-25th, 2010 High Risk!
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srainhoutx
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Re:
Click on the blue stars to the left for the loaction you want to see...
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/soundi ... 42312_OBS/
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CrazyC83
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Re: Severe Weather Threat. April 21st-25th, 2010 Moderate Risk!
Probs are 60/30. Only covers initiation.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 79
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
955 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
MUCH OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA
PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 955 AM UNTIL 500
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LONGVIEW TEXAS TO 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONTICELLO ARKANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN AREA OF LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND RETURN OF A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE GULF AIR MASS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY AS STORMS CONTINUE MOVE/DEVELOP E/NE
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...HALES
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 79
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
955 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
MUCH OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA
PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 955 AM UNTIL 500
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LONGVIEW TEXAS TO 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONTICELLO ARKANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN AREA OF LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND RETURN OF A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE GULF AIR MASS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY AS STORMS CONTINUE MOVE/DEVELOP E/NE
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...HALES
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CrazyC83
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I also wonder if the northern area around the low center - MO/NE/IA/KS (which could easily be forgotten if we see destructive and deadly tornadoes in the South but could significantly add to the outbreak) should be upgraded to a Moderate Risk as the convection is lifting northward pretty rapidly.
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:The soundings at 1200Z are quite spooky - and that is early morning. I'd seriously consider an upgrade to HIGH risk at 1630Z.
They sure are impressive, I'd say its 50-50 for an upgrade based on thos soundings. I do however think they should upgrade the northern area you were talking about in your last post.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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srainhoutx
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Re: Severe Weather Threat. April 21st-25th, 2010 Moderate Risk!
12Z GFS suggests a rather deep low developing in AR and tracking ENE. If we see any upgrade, it would be for NE AR, SE MO, W TN, and W KY IMHO.
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CrazyC83
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I think there could be 3 rounds to the severe activity:
Round 1 - Cells currently in AR/LA and continuing northward into early afternoon. Some of them are actually rotating, which shows the amount of shear in the atmosphere. Strongest cell is near Mansfield, LA. There are plenty of clear breaks over AR/MS that should allow them to become intense. Confidence: Moderate
Round 2 - Late afternoon/early evening back over AR/LA/TX. The actual intensity may depend on how Round 1 reacts and how quickly that clears, which might be a case to hold off on a High Risk upgrade until 2000Z. It appears to be clearing pretty well over Texas though. Confidence: Moderate
Round 3 - Near midnight over OK/TX and overnight farther east. This would be ahead of and on the cold front itself. This has the potential to be EXTREMELY dangerous, and is more certain than Round 2 IMO. Confidence: High
The northern area is not covered in that; I would expect that to be late afternoon there. Probably would be similar to yesterday with tornadoes and large hail there.
Round 1 - Cells currently in AR/LA and continuing northward into early afternoon. Some of them are actually rotating, which shows the amount of shear in the atmosphere. Strongest cell is near Mansfield, LA. There are plenty of clear breaks over AR/MS that should allow them to become intense. Confidence: Moderate
Round 2 - Late afternoon/early evening back over AR/LA/TX. The actual intensity may depend on how Round 1 reacts and how quickly that clears, which might be a case to hold off on a High Risk upgrade until 2000Z. It appears to be clearing pretty well over Texas though. Confidence: Moderate
Round 3 - Near midnight over OK/TX and overnight farther east. This would be ahead of and on the cold front itself. This has the potential to be EXTREMELY dangerous, and is more certain than Round 2 IMO. Confidence: High
The northern area is not covered in that; I would expect that to be late afternoon there. Probably would be similar to yesterday with tornadoes and large hail there.
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CrazyC83
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Re: Severe Weather Threat. April 21st-25th, 2010 Moderate Risk!
srainhoutx wrote:12Z GFS suggests a rather deep low developing in AR and tracking ENE. If we see any upgrade, it would be for NE AR, SE MO, W TN, and W KY IMHO.
If I drew up 1630Z now, here is what I would do:
* Hold off on a High Risk upgrade. This initial activity could slow things down this afternoon/early evening and later soundings could help out with overnight predictions.
* Expand the Moderate Risk area (tornado 15H) northeast to roughly Paducah, KY - adding W KY, rest of W TN, S IL and SE MO to the area.
* Expand the Moderate Risk area (tornado 15H) west and southwest to roughly the northern suburbs of Houston along I-45 and then northward along a line east of Dallas.
* Upgrade the area from roughly Kansas City through Omaha to N of Lincoln and NE of Grand Island to a Moderate Risk (tornado 10H, hail 45H).
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Re: Severe Weather Threat. April 21st-25th, 2010 Moderate Risk!
srainhoutx wrote:12Z GFS suggests a rather deep low developing in AR and tracking ENE. If we see any upgrade, it would be for NE AR, SE MO, W TN, and W KY IMHO.
Either way I'm going to be super busy on the warning thread!
I'd agree with Crazy, I'd just hold back on the high risk for now, though if I had to put down what I thought will happen, I'd suggest this will be a high risk event in the end...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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CrazyC83
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- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather Threat. April 21st-25th, 2010 Moderate Risk!
SPC AC 231629
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
VALID 231630Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY...
...ARKLATEX TO MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH/BASAL UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH SEVERAL LOW
AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES AIDING STRONG/SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SUCH
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE/EXPAND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER/LOW LEVEL SHEAR WELL-SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. REFERENCE
TORNADO WATCH 79 AND ASSOCIATED/SUBSEQUENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR
THE LATEST DETAILS.
...NEB/KS/MO THIS AFTERNOON...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A NARROW AXIS OF A MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEB INTO EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO.
SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING AND DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT WILL HELP TO
ERODE THE CAP AND LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ORIENTATION OF DEEP-SHEAR VECTOR NORMAL TO
THE BOUNDARY SUGGEST THE DISCRETE STORM INITIATION IS LIKELY...WITH
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES TODAY.
OTHERWISE...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...
WEST OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY...OTHER LOW-TOPPED
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DRY SLOT AND
IN VICINITY OF THE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
...EAST TX/SOUTHEAST OK TO ARKLATEX TONIGHT...
THE MAIN SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH /WITH ATTENDANT 100+ KT
UPPER JET STREAK/ CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN
MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
PIVOT INTO TX/OK LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE/OVERTAKING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST TX/SOUTHEAST OK TO THE ADJACENT ARKLATEX
TONIGHT...WITH STORMS RACING EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES
WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
THE START OF ANOTHER VERY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
..GUYER/GRAMS.. 04/23/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1640Z (12:40PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
VALID 231630Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY...
...ARKLATEX TO MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH/BASAL UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH SEVERAL LOW
AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES AIDING STRONG/SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SUCH
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE/EXPAND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER/LOW LEVEL SHEAR WELL-SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. REFERENCE
TORNADO WATCH 79 AND ASSOCIATED/SUBSEQUENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR
THE LATEST DETAILS.
...NEB/KS/MO THIS AFTERNOON...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A NARROW AXIS OF A MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEB INTO EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO.
SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING AND DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT WILL HELP TO
ERODE THE CAP AND LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ORIENTATION OF DEEP-SHEAR VECTOR NORMAL TO
THE BOUNDARY SUGGEST THE DISCRETE STORM INITIATION IS LIKELY...WITH
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES TODAY.
OTHERWISE...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...
WEST OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY...OTHER LOW-TOPPED
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DRY SLOT AND
IN VICINITY OF THE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
...EAST TX/SOUTHEAST OK TO ARKLATEX TONIGHT...
THE MAIN SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH /WITH ATTENDANT 100+ KT
UPPER JET STREAK/ CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN
MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
PIVOT INTO TX/OK LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE/OVERTAKING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST TX/SOUTHEAST OK TO THE ADJACENT ARKLATEX
TONIGHT...WITH STORMS RACING EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES
WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
THE START OF ANOTHER VERY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
..GUYER/GRAMS.. 04/23/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1640Z (12:40PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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Brent
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Re: Severe Weather Threat. April 21st-25th, 2010 Moderate Risk!
Wow...
Confidence level 5 a day ahead!
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
552 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
ALZ011>015-017>050-241100-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
552 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SEVERE STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA
AS EARLY AS TONIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ...ALONG A LINE FROM
GREENSBORO...TO JASPER...TO DOUBLE SPRINGS AFTER 6 PM. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY MORNING.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT....ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND...LARGE
HAIL...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY 9 AM SATURDAY MORNING IN WESTERN ALABAMA...THE
GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. ALL INTERESTS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA SHOULD MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER
SYSTEM.
BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 10 AND
20 MPH.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
LATE FRIDAY...AND WILL BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A TORNADO WATCH SOMETIME SATURDAY.
$$
Confidence level 5 a day ahead!
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
552 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
ALZ011>015-017>050-241100-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
552 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SEVERE STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA
AS EARLY AS TONIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ...ALONG A LINE FROM
GREENSBORO...TO JASPER...TO DOUBLE SPRINGS AFTER 6 PM. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY MORNING.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT....ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND...LARGE
HAIL...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY 9 AM SATURDAY MORNING IN WESTERN ALABAMA...THE
GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. ALL INTERESTS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA SHOULD MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER
SYSTEM.
BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 10 AND
20 MPH.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
LATE FRIDAY...AND WILL BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A TORNADO WATCH SOMETIME SATURDAY.
$$
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srainhoutx
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:I also wonder if the northern area around the low center - MO/NE/IA/KS (which could easily be forgotten if we see destructive and deadly tornadoes in the South but could significantly add to the outbreak) should be upgraded to a Moderate Risk as the convection is lifting northward pretty rapidly.
About to get a watch for some of the areas you mentioned CrazyC83...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0348
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...NRN KS...NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 231643Z - 231745Z
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRYING HAS OVERSPREAD THE IMMEDIATE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER. AS A RESULT...BOUNDARY
LAYER IS BEGINNING TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITHIN MOIST ELY CONVERGENT
FLOW. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUPPORTS THIS WITH SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES
NOW IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM ACROSS PARTS OF NERN CO/WRN KS/EXTREME SWRN
NEB. VIS IMAGERY CERTAINLY REFLECTS THIS DESTABILIZATION PROCESS
WITH CU FIELD EXPANDING/DEEPENING ALONG THE NRN-ERN PERIPHERY OF SFC
CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH DRY SLOT WILL LIKELY SURGE A BIT FARTHER NORTH
INTO SCNTRL NEB...SIGNIFICANT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN
INTO THE STRONGLY CONVERGENT SFC LOW AND ROBUST THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
GIVEN THE SHEAR IN PLACE IT APPEARS SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE.
..DARROW.. 04/23/2010
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
I know Talladega Superspeedway is supposed to be a busy place this weekend...and if this extreme severe weather gets there, it could be right in the middle of tomorrow's events there. If I were the track, I would immediately cancel all activity for tomorrow and keep the track closed, while rescheduling the Nationwide Series race to late Sunday or to Monday. I don't know if there is a safe enough place if a tornado threatens the facility.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather Threat. April 21st-25th, 2010 Moderate Risk!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0349
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA...SERN AR...WRN MS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 79...
VALID 231708Z - 231815Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 79 CONTINUES.
SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE DOWNSTREAM OF WW 79 ACROSS WRN MS...WITH
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS BEING MONITORED FOR AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH
BY MID-AFTERNOON.
MIXED CONVECTIVE MODES OF CLUSTERS AND DISCRETE CELLS HAVE PERSISTED
ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WARM THETA-E ADVECTION
REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LATEST OPERATIONAL AND HI-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THIS REGIME WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NEWD WITH
ONGOING CONVECTION LIKELY BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE MS RIVER
INTO MS. ACROSS WRN MS...PARTIAL INSOLATION WILL LEAD TO SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80...AMIDST DEW POINTS GRADUALLY RISING THROUGH
THE MIDDLE 60S. THIS STRENGTHENING DESTABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF
SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
..GRAMS.. 04/23/2010
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 31599004 31459066 31499149 31659241 31889306 32509371
33209372 34259313 34659254 34679071 34488983 33838958
33048958 32408972 31599004
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA...SERN AR...WRN MS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 79...
VALID 231708Z - 231815Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 79 CONTINUES.
SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE DOWNSTREAM OF WW 79 ACROSS WRN MS...WITH
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS BEING MONITORED FOR AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH
BY MID-AFTERNOON.
MIXED CONVECTIVE MODES OF CLUSTERS AND DISCRETE CELLS HAVE PERSISTED
ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WARM THETA-E ADVECTION
REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LATEST OPERATIONAL AND HI-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THIS REGIME WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NEWD WITH
ONGOING CONVECTION LIKELY BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE MS RIVER
INTO MS. ACROSS WRN MS...PARTIAL INSOLATION WILL LEAD TO SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80...AMIDST DEW POINTS GRADUALLY RISING THROUGH
THE MIDDLE 60S. THIS STRENGTHENING DESTABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF
SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
..GRAMS.. 04/23/2010
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 31599004 31459066 31499149 31659241 31889306 32509371
33209372 34259313 34659254 34679071 34488983 33838958
33048958 32408972 31599004
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Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6179
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:I know Talladega Superspeedway is supposed to be a busy place this weekend...and if this extreme severe weather gets there, it could be right in the middle of tomorrow's events there. If I were the track, I would immediately cancel all activity for tomorrow and keep the track closed, while rescheduling the Nationwide Series race to late Sunday or to Monday. I don't know if there is a safe enough place if a tornado threatens the facility.
I've been there to see NASCAR racing at 'Dega...and you're right, there's not a safe enough place there.
Problem is, the track is already full of campers.
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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srainhoutx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6919
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
- Location: Haywood County, NC
- Contact:
Re: Re:
Texas Snowman wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:I know Talladega Superspeedway is supposed to be a busy place this weekend...and if this extreme severe weather gets there, it could be right in the middle of tomorrow's events there. If I were the track, I would immediately cancel all activity for tomorrow and keep the track closed, while rescheduling the Nationwide Series race to late Sunday or to Monday. I don't know if there is a safe enough place if a tornado threatens the facility.
I've been there to see NASCAR racing at 'Dega...and you're right, there's not a safe enough place there.
Problem is, the track is already full of campers.
Appears Birmingham WFO is doing everything they can to 'get the word out' (see Brent's post).
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TORNADO WARNING
COC073-231745-
/O.NEW.KBOU.TO.W.0010.100423T1716Z-100423T1745Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1116 AM MDT FRI APR 23 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
* UNTIL 1145 AM MDT
* AT 1117 AM MDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
GENOA...OR 14 MILES EAST OF LIMON. THIS STORM WAS MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT 15 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO GENOA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
COC073-231745-
/O.NEW.KBOU.TO.W.0010.100423T1716Z-100423T1745Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1116 AM MDT FRI APR 23 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
* UNTIL 1145 AM MDT
* AT 1117 AM MDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
GENOA...OR 14 MILES EAST OF LIMON. THIS STORM WAS MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT 15 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO GENOA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
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