Severe Weather Threat. April 21st-25th, 2010 High Risk!

[Bunkertor]

Multimedia Briefing for the Southerners

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/?n=multimedia_briefing

( OK, nothing special )

[CrazyC83]

It's really heating up now back over East Texas. That could be where the REAL outbreak takes place.

[Texas Snowman]

I just noticed the lower line of Shreveport's Special Weather Statement from this morning.

Now that's just downright ominous...



THIS SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL BE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS AND IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVERYONE ACROSS THE
FOUR STATE REGION SHOULD BE AT A VERY HIGH STATE OF READINESS FROM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... +Statement

[Texas Snowman]

It's really heating up now back over East Texas. That could be where the REAL outbreak takes place.

Agreed, was just looking at that. Tyler is at 78 degrees and there is convection building to their NW. The Texarkana area might be under the gun a bit later this afternoon.

[Bunkertor]

But daytime heating causes a 2,3 hour delay, isn´t it ?

[CrazyC83]

It's really heating up now back over East Texas. That could be where the REAL outbreak takes place.

Agreed, was just looking at that. Tyler is at 78 degrees and there is convection building to their NW. The Texarkana area might be under the gun a bit later this afternoon.

It has really intensified over the last hour and should become severe soon and maybe tornadic within 1-2 hours. I think the bullseye of activity might be farther south now.

[Texas Snowman]

It has really intensified over the last hour and should become severe soon and maybe tornadic within 1-2 hours. I think the bullseye of activity might be farther south now.

I think you're right - the Ark/La/Tex area may be ground zero this afternoon and early evening.

[CrazyC83]

Not a very strongly worded MD considering what could happen, I'd have really had a stronger worded one (like mentions of strong and long-lived tornadoes).

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0350
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/E-CNTRL TX...FAR SERN OK...SWRN AR...NWRN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 79...

VALID 231950Z - 232145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 79 CONTINUES.

WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT PROBABLE ALONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS NERN/E-CNTRL TX INTO FAR SERN OK...A REPLACEMENT WW MAY
BECOME NECESSARY PRIOR TO 22Z EXPIRATION OF WW 79.

19Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR MLC TO
30 N TYR TO ADS. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE
TCU/ISOLATED SHOWERS GRADUALLY INCREASING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
LARGE-SCALE FORCED ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK INTO EARLY EVENING...AS
THE REGION LIES WEST OF LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WELL-REMOVED FROM UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA. NEVERTHELESS...MODEST WARM NOSE AT 650 MB
/EVIDENT IN 18Z SHV AND LCH RAOBS/ SHOULD PROVE INSUFFICIENT TO CAP
MIXED-LAYER PARCELS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM AMIDST UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S DEW POINTS. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE LIKELY
WITH SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
DESPITE WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW INVOF THE FRONT COMPARED TO AREAS
FARTHER EAST...THE RICHNESS OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT
A TORNADO OR TWO.

..GRAMS.. 04/23/2010


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 34349524 34699471 34889352 34609272 33629268 32389331
31439412 30539577 29859732 30099778 30409743 31559632
32819554 34349524

[KWT]

I'm guessing they think conditions may not be quite as condusive for tornadoes as some of the models suggest....talking of tornadoes:


TORNADO WARNING
COC087-232015-
/O.NEW.KBOU.TO.W.0011.100423T1952Z-100423T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
152 PM MDT FRI APR 23 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL MORGAN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO

* UNTIL 215 PM MDT

* AT 151 PM MDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD JUST SOUTH OF
BRUSH...OR 10 MILES EAST OF FORT MORGAN. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
WARNED COUNTY.

[thetruesms]

I'm guessing they think conditions may not be quite as condusive for tornadoes as some of the models suggest....talking of tornadoes:

It does look like low-level winds are veering in East Texas. So even though there's a ton of instability and some good deep layer shear, the low-level wind structure isn't as good as it could be to support strong tornadoes.

[srainhoutx]

Just an FYI: Several WFO's launched Special 18Z soundings. Lake Charles showed the cap gone!

[Bunkertor]

Anyone to help me out ? I got stuck in my bookmarks and i need a site where the current place of the front is shown. Normally i use this one http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ but it ends at the srn plains

[CrazyC83]

Several tornado warnings out now.

[CrazyC83]

WWUS54 KJAN 232039
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
339 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

MSC015-051-053-083-133-232115-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-100423T2115Z/
SUNFLOWER MS-LEFLORE MS-CARROLL MS-HOLMES MS-HUMPHREYS MS-
339 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN HUMPHREYS...NORTHWESTERN HOLMES...WESTERN CARROLL...
SOUTHERN LEFLORE AND SOUTHEASTERN SUNFLOWER COUNTIES...

AT 338 PM CDT...PUBLIC REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD 5 MILES SOUTH OF
INVERNESS MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SIDON BY 345 PM CDT...
SEVEN PINES AND GREENWOOD BY 350 PM CDT...
COILA AND BLACK HAWK BY 355 PM CDT...
MALMAISON BY 400 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. YOU
SHOULD ACTIVATE YOUR TORNADO ACTION PLAN AND TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION
NOW.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MISSISSIPPI. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

&&

LAT...LON 3335 9067 3359 9002 3333 8990 3318 9057
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 252DEG 51KT 3334 9030

$$

BK

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0351
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...SERN MO...WRN TN...MS...W-CNTRL AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 81...

VALID 232047Z - 232145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 81 CONTINUES.

AREAS N OF WW 81 INTO SERN MO AND E OF WW 81 INTO W-CNTRL AL ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL WW/S LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

PRIMARY CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WERE LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL
AR AND CNTRL MS AS OF 2045Z. ALTHOUGH STORMS HAVE THUS FAR ONLY
REPORTEDLY PRODUCED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS...LOW-LEVEL ROTATION HAS RECENTLY INCREASED WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS INVOF CONWAY COUNTY AR AND HUMPHREYS COUNTY MS. STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...EVIDENT IN AREA VWPS AND 18Z LZK/JAN/LIX
RAOBS...AMIDST INCREASINGLY RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS THREAT MAY EXPAND DOWNSTREAM THROUGH EARLY
EVENING INTO W-CNTRL AL E OF WW 81...AS WELL AS FARTHER N INTO SERN
MO.

..GRAMS.. 04/23/2010


ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON 35199294 36299249 37139184 37259034 36908971 35958958
35338993 33558941 33328796 32288756 31448790 31128839
31038909 31248976 31909036 32919067 33959180 34789298
35199294

[Bunkertor]

AT 338 PM CDT...PUBLIC REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD 5 MILES SOUTH OF
INVERNESS MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

According to my GRL - no TVS so far.

[CrazyC83]

AT 338 PM CDT...PUBLIC REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD 5 MILES SOUTH OF
INVERNESS MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

According to my GRL - no TVS so far.

Not all tornadoes are detectable on radar though.

[RL3AO]

That MS cell is pretty nasty looking on SRV.

[RL3AO]

Also, the Mississippi TOR cell is pretty far from a radar site. Even the 0.5deg level is looking around 6000 feet.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0352
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0410 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NEB/NORTHEAST CO/NORTHWEST KS INTO FAR NORTHEAST
KS/SOUTHWEST IA/NORTHWEST MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 81...

VALID 232110Z - 232245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 81 CONTINUES.

TORNADO WATCH 81 CONTINUES UNTIL 01Z...WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES/SEVERE HAIL ACROSS WW 81 AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST CO/NORTHWEST KS. MONITORING FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE
THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHEAST NEB AND EXTREME NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST IA INTO NORTHWEST
MO.

BANDS OF STRONG/SOME SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE ARCING OCCLUDED SURFACE FRONT FROM CENTRAL
NEB INTO NORTHEAST CO/NORTHWEST KS NEAR THE VERTICALLY STACKED
CYCLONE...WHERE AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY/AMPLE LOW LEVEL CAPE WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TO AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON.

OTHER STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEB/PERHAPS FAR NORTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST
IA/NORTHWEST MO IN VICINITY OF A SPATIALLY NARROWING WARM/MOIST
SECTOR VIA GRADUAL SURFACE OCCLUSION. ALONG WITH MODEST NEAR-SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...SPECIAL 20Z OBSERVED RAOBS FROM OMAHA/TOPEKA IMPLY A
CAP AROUND 700-750 MB MAY BE INHIBITING TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN AN
OTHERWISE INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER /700-1300 J PER
KG MLCAPE/. WHILE THE SCENARIO STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN...CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE RISK
ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY VICINITY.

..GUYER.. 04/23/2010


ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...
CYS...

LAT...LON 39730344 40600396 41930257 42280055 42169743 41129396
39479400 39869582 40289705 40339969 39170087 39730344