Severe Weather Threat. April 21st-25th, 2010 High Risk!

[Bunkertor]

[CrazyC83]

For some reason I think the longer the activity holds off in the southern areas, the worse it could get...

[KWT]

TORNADO WARNING
MSC015-019-097-105-155-232300-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0010.100423T2201Z-100423T2300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
501 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CHOCTAW COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
WEBSTER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHWESTERN OKTIBBEHA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 501 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR VAIDEN
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
KILMICHAEL AND POPLAR CREEK BY 510 PM CDT...
LODI BY 515 PM CDT...
EUPORA...BELLEFONTAINE AND EMBRY BY 530 PM CDT...
SHERWOOD AND REFORM BY 535 PM CDT...
MATHISTON AND MABEN BY 540 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. YOU
SHOULD ACTIVATE YOUR TORNADO ACTION PLAN AND TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION
NOW.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MISSISSIPPI.

[Peanut432]

Quick question.......how come several of the tornados that were spotted and taped by spotters are not on the Noaa storm reports from yesterday? The Goodnight tx twister and several other that were being watched and taped never showed up on the tornado count for yesterday.

[CrazyC83]

Quick question.......how come several of the tornados that were spotted and taped by spotters are not on the Noaa storm reports from yesterday? The Goodnight tx twister and several other that were being watched and taped never showed up on the tornado count for yesterday.

Probably because NWS Amarillo didn't want to submit them until they were confirmed.

[Peanut432]

I assume it will be updated? I know the news stations here in Oklahoma had chaser out that had reported 6 different tornadoes (same storm i think) that were confirmed in the tornado warning when they were Issued. The warnings said something like "radar and storm spotters are tracking a tornado near shamrock"

[CrazyC83]

New watch (PDS?) coming soon...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0353
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0528 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/NERN TX...FAR SERN OK...NWRN LA
AND SWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 232228Z - 232300Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN SECOND SENTENCE /NW SHOULD BE NWD/

NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED SOON FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/
NERN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.

FORCING FOR ASCENT AND ATTENDANT STORMS THAT RESULTED IN THE NEED
FOR A TORNADO WATCH EARLIER TODAY HAS MOVED NW AND EWD WHICH ALLOWED
WW 79 TO EXPIRE AT 22Z.

MEANWHILE...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS PART OF
CENTRAL TX /20 SSW TPL-40 SE ACT/. THE ENVIRONMENT FROM VICINITY OF
THESE STORMS INTO THE ARKLATEX IS WARM AND VERY MOIST WITH MLCAPE
2000-2500 J/KG. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THIS AREA IS BEING
GLANCED BY THE SRN EXTENT OF AN ELONGATED VORTICITY LOBE NOW MOVING
INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY...WHILE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED A SPEED MAX
TRACKING FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO E TX. ALTHOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT WEAK ALONG A SW-NE ORIENTED SURFACE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD FROM DRT TO THE ARKLATEX...BOTH UPPER
FEATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
EVENING. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF MAIN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAINTAINING STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY.

..PETERS.. 04/23/2010


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 31029790 31769697 33519555 34279448 33789318 32929289
31819404 30719579 30439656 30649747 31029790

[CrazyC83]

And so Round 2 of activity begins...

WFUS54 KFWD 232229
TORFWD
TXC331-232315-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0005.100423T2229Z-100423T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
529 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN MILAM COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 529 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 4 MILES SOUTH OF BUCKHOLTS...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CAMERON BY 545 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO AN INTERIOR BATHROOM...CLOSET...OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR BUILDING. COVER YOURSELF WITH BLANKETS...PILLOWS...OR A
MATTRESS FOR PROTECTION.

IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY
WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3090 9721 3109 9682 3098 9676 3096 9677
3093 9675 3091 9671 3086 9669 3082 9665
3072 9714
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 252DEG 24KT 3082 9709

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0354
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0532 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 232232Z - 232330Z

A BRIEF/MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER SRN SD
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED STORMS OVER NEB
MOVE NNW TOWARD THE AREA. AN ADDITIONAL WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY
AT THIS TIME.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NNWWD ALONG ARCING OCCLUDED
SURFACE FRONT POSITIONED FROM WRN NEB EWD INTO CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL NEB
AND THEN SEWD INTO ERN NEB. MID 50S DEWPOINTS RESIDE ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY N OF THE FRONT...WITH A COOLING MID LEVEL AIRMASS AND
LOBE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING NWD ABOVE THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...AIDING IN AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
500 J/KG. AS THE SURFACE FRONT AND NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY ARC
NWD TOWARD SRN SD...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION.
STRONGLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO NNWLY IN THE MID LEVELS
MAY FAVOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE
THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WANE
TOWARD/AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE. GIVEN
THE SHORT DURATION/MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...AN
ADDITIONAL WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

..GARNER.. 04/23/2010


ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 43000153 43040213 43420208 43820091 43999936 43599768
43069745 42849777 42999924 43000153

[srainhoutx]

And so Round 2 of activity begins...

WFUS54 KFWD 232229
TORFWD
TXC331-232315-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0005.100423T2229Z-100423T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
529 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN MILAM COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 529 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 4 MILES SOUTH OF BUCKHOLTS...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CAMERON BY 545 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO AN INTERIOR BATHROOM...CLOSET...OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR BUILDING. COVER YOURSELF WITH BLANKETS...PILLOWS...OR A
MATTRESS FOR PROTECTION.

IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY
WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3090 9721 3109 9682 3098 9676 3096 9677
3093 9675 3091 9671 3086 9669 3082 9665
3072 9714
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 252DEG 24KT 3082 9709

Well defined hook with that cell.

[CrazyC83]

Probs 50/20 which seem quite conservative IMO.

SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 82
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
540 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
FAR NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 540 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF DE
QUEEN ARKANSAS TO 15 MILES WEST OF COLLEGE STATION TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 80...WW 81...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS FORMING ALONG STALLED SW-NE BOUNDARY IN E TX
ATTM...APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING/WEAK CONVERGENCE...
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND POSSIBLE DEVELOP NEWD ALONG BOUNDARY AS
LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES LATER THIS EVE DOWNSTREAM FROM W TX UPR
TROUGH. ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STORM SPLITS...AND
BOUNDARY MAY EDGE NWWD SOMEWHAT LATER THIS EVE WITH APPROACH OF UPR
TROUGH...THUS WATCH EXTENDS INTO AREA NW OF PRESENT LOCATION OF
BOUNDARY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22030.


...CORFIDI

[srainhoutx]

AREA WEATHER UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
533 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

...WARNING DECISION UPDATE FOR NORTH TEXAS...

CONCERNING STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A TEMPLE TO PALESTINE LINE.

THIS LINE APPROXIMATELY DENOTES A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SUFFICIENT CAPE/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY
LATEST WSR-88D DATA. SPC MESOANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES VERTICAL
VORTICITY MAXIMA ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH 0-3 KM CAPE
VALUES OF 125 TO 150 J/KG. WOULD APPEAR THAT AT LEAST THRU SUNSET
THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR RAPID TORNADOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND MANAGE TO STAY CLOSE
TO THIS BOUNDARY FOR AN APPRECIABLE AMOUNT OF TIME. WITH GRK RADAR
DOWN WILL BE RELYING ON HEAVILY ON SPOTTER REPORTS AND
ENVIRONMENTAL DATA TO SUPPORT WARNING DECISIONS FOR TORNADO
WARNINGS.

CAVANAUGH

[CrazyC83]

Fortunately, other radar scans can reach those cells.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like a debris ball near Bremond, TX.

[srainhoutx]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
550 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

TXC293-395-232315-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-100423T2315Z/
LIMESTONE TX-ROBERTSON TX-
550 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
ROBERTSON AND SOUTHEASTERN LIMESTONE COUNTIES...

AT 549 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES EAST OF
BREMOND...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL NORTHEASTERN ROBERTSON COUNTY AT 600 PM CDT

[Bunkertor]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
549 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HOLMES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...THORNTON...DURANT...
SOUTHEASTERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTH CENTRAL YAZOO COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 549 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THORNTON MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
THORNTON BY 555 PM CDT...
TOLARVILLE AND COXBURG BY 605 PM CDT...
HOWARD AND TCHULA BY 610 PM CDT...
BROZVILLE BY 615 PM CDT...
LEXINGTON BY 620 PM CDT...
FRANKLIN BY 625 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

[Bunkertor]

What do ya guys think ? 50 % bust ?

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
604 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LEON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 604 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 6 MILES WEST OF MARQUEZ...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

[CrazyC83]

WFUS54 KMEG 232327
TORMEG
ARC031-240015-
/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0005.100423T2327Z-100424T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
627 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 626 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND A SPOTTER
INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A
TORNADO NEAR CASH...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BONO...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BONO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3589 9093 3588 9088 3590 9088 3594 9075
3576 9070 3573 9104 3585 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 255DEG 34KT 3579 9090

$$

[CrazyC83]

Both Texas tornado-warned cells seem to have debris balls on them.