ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

The cool waters continue to expand.

Daily ECMWF Subsurface data on April 24

[cycloneye]

After one day of upward halt the 30 day SOI resumed its climbing deeper in positive territory as in tonight's update is up to +13.8.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[KWT]

The 90 day value must be shooting up as well now, esp as we will start to lose the super -ve values over the next 15 days or so.

[cycloneye]

This week we will have updates of how is ENSO doing by Climate Prediction Center in their weekly update of Mondays and the Australians in the form of ENSO Wrap-up next Wednesday. It will be interesting to see if both are out with down numbers for El Nino 3.4 from the +0.8C and +0.7C that they had in their last updates. IMO,what I have seen in the daily subsurface data and the ssta's data in the past few days suggests to me that El Nino 3.4 area has cooled a little bit,but that is only my opinion.

[cycloneye]

Here is a comparison on how the subsurface waters were on Sunday April 4 and how they are three weeks later on Sunday April 25. You can see the advancing cool waters and the diminushing warm waters.

Subsurface data on April 4

Subsurface data on April 25

[cycloneye]

The 30 day SOI Index went down tonight from +13.8 to +13.6 so no big deal.See 4 posts up from this one at link and graphic.

[KWT]

Yeah those subsurface temps are becoming quite impressive, you can see why the ECM is quite keen on bringing in a La Nina...remains to be seen whether it occurs or not though!

[cycloneye]

Yeah those subsurface temps are becoming quite impressive, you can see why the ECM is quite keen on bringing in a La Nina...remains to be seen whether it occurs or not though!

What we know is for sure that Neutral conditions will dominate in the near future. I put a 50/50 chance of La Nina at this time.

[BigA]

I'm not as good as cycloneeye at attaching things, but I figured this would be good to post

Last week's anomalies

Niño 4= +0.8ºC
Niño 3.4= +0.8ºC
Niño 3= +0.8ºC
Niño 1+2= +1.1ºC

This week's anomalies

Niño 4= +0.8
Niño 3.4=+0.7
Niño 3= +0.6
Niño 1+2= +0.9

Slow decline in El Niño continues

[cycloneye]

I have to say sorry for not being here when the CPC update came out but this happens many times to when you are waiting for something,Internet connection goes out

But I am here again and thanks to BigA for posting the update.

I always add the link to CPC site.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

And the graphic.

[Macrocane]

One interesting thing to note is that the CFS ensemble mean is now more bullish with La Niña scenario reaching the -0.5°C anomaly in the Aug-Sep-Oct period and the -1.0°C in Nov-Dec-Jan

[cycloneye]

One interesting thing to note is that the CFS ensemble mean is now more bullish with La Niña scenario reaching the -0.5°C anomaly in the Aug-Sep-Oct period and the -1.0°C in Nov-Dec-Jan

I think CFS has a good handle of what will occur. Here is the graphic with all the ensembles and it really dips fast to La Nina threshold. After todays CPC update I raise the chances to having La Nina to 80%.

[KWT]

I'm just not sure to be honest about a developing La Nina, this El Nino is *really* dragging its heels and if your going to get a La Nina in the summer months you really do need to be getting close to 0.0C by now, for example 2007 was around 0.0 by early April, as was 1998, etc...and whilst subsurface temps are cold and we are in now a longer -PDO cycle, other aspects IMO aren't all that condusive to us getting into La Nina anywhere near as fast as some of those models expect.

I still think neutral for perhaps nearly all of the season will be the right call myself....though certainly on the cold side of neutral...

[cycloneye]

Here come the cooler waters up to the surface.

SubSurface waters on April 26

[cycloneye]

Different from the CFS model,the Australian POAMA model never goes to La Nina as it stays Neutral thru November,although it slips to cold Neutral by August.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/coupled_model/poama.shtml

[MGC]

I doubt we see La Nina by the end of the 2010 season. I expect neutral conditions for the heart of the season. Still expect above normal season......MGC

[cycloneye]

Here are the different categories of ENSO and how the Atlantic seasons were in terms of activity since the active period started in 1995.

[cycloneye]

Yikes,the spike upwards of the 30 SOI index continues,tonight up to +15.0 from the +13.6 yesterday.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[jinftl]

Today's CPC report starting to mention more than just the expectation of 'enso neutral' conditions by late summer.

Some excerpts:

All of the models indicate that the Niño-3.4 temperature departures will gradually decrease into the summer and reach ENSO-neutral thresholds (Niño-3.4 between -0.5°C and +0.5°C).

The majority of models indicate Niño-3.4 temperature departures will become negative, with several models indicating the possibility of a transition to La Niña conditions by the late summer or early fall.

The CFS ensemble mean predicts the return to ENSO-neutral by Northern Hemisphere summer 2010, and the onset of La Niña during fall 2010.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... _advisory/


Looking at the numbers, if the nino 3.4 anomaly drops as much as it has during the first 4 months of 2010, we will be at the la nina threshold of -0.5C in another 4 months....or late August. A peak season developing la nina is seeming less and less farfetched...and the trend of the models is not disagreeing...


Nino 3.4 SST anomaly:

12/28/2009 +1.9C
4/26/2010 +0.7C

late aug 2010? -0.5C if 4-month decrease we have seen happens again from late april through late august.

[meteorologyman]

Cycloneye, out of curiosity, for comparison, do you have any SOI data from 2005?