Global model runs discussion

[gatorcane]

Ivanhater I'm guessing the GFS is picking up that the SSTs are running much above normal in the MDR -- more like summer already. It seems to be sniffing something out in that region. Not sure if it will be a just a wave or something more. In fact it may be the first wave of 2010 Atl season that pushes off of Africa that the GFS is sniffing out. Given climatology one would say just a wave and nothing more, but with SSTs so above normal you can't rule out the improbable.

[KWT]

Yeah those SST's are real impressive, they are pretty much the same as you'd expect in July I'd have thought. Even so it'd be mega early to get a system form there, in fact I'm not sure a storms has ever developed that far east in May before, or even June for that matter...

Still it is a signal that the tropics are going to start to awaken soon!

[wxman57]

Some seem to forget that the GFS does this sort of thing every year. Sure, if it predicts a storm 12-15 days out then eventually, one day, it's going to be right. It did this in 2004, and the first storm didn't form until July 31st. Now I don't think we'll likely make it to August before the first storm this season, but a storm next week or the week after is quite unlikely.

[cycloneye]

GFS will be upgraded in June so lets see if it turns better.

[KWT]

Some seem to forget that the GFS does this sort of thing every year. Sure, if it predicts a storm 12-15 days out then eventually, one day, it's going to be right. It did this in 2004, and the first storm didn't form until July 31st. Now I don't think we'll likely make it to August before the first storm this season, but a storm next week or the week after is quite unlikely.

Very true, though to be fair the GFS has improved markedly since 2004 in terms of TC development...that being said I totally agree with the point, the GFS does like to tease us.

The EPAC system however wouldn't be totally impossible, though obviously its way too soon to think anythinbg of it!

[Ivanhater]

Yeah. The important thing to remember is when the GFS starts spinning up storms, it is sniffing out a pattern change and tropical season is knocking.

[cycloneye]

GFS is not alone on the EPAC development as the Canadian model has a small cyclone but doesnt last much as it goes rapidly inland. See animation at link below graphic.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Hurricaneman]

With the GFS even hinting at something east of the lesser antilles this early tells me this is going to be a very heavy season

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS pretty bullish on the EPAC system in just 5 days

[gatorcane]

There already seems to be some kind of low-level spin around the area the GFS is expecting development in 5 days.....18Z GFS develops a low and moves it into Central America.

Shear is decreasing in the eastern EPAC, so development appears possible. Will the EPAC get off to an early start?

[gatorcane]

NOGAP 12Z shows a broad area of low pressure in the EPAC:

[xironman]

Just beyond that time frame there looks to be a decent upper level high over the gulf.

[ronjon]

06Z GFS develops the EPAC low and then it gets pulled northward in a weakened state into the western GOM and toward LA in a week.

[cycloneye]

If any member wants to join the discussion about the system off Central America in the EPAC that some models develop,you can go to the Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread at USA & Caribbean Weather Forum.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=85676&p=1977754#p1977754

[Ivanhater]

The 12z GFS develops the EPAC low and moves it into the Gulf and shows up as a weaker low along the Northern Gulf Coast

[ColdFusion]

I would think even a weak low in the northern gulf in the next couple of weeks could be significant in terms of pushing the growing oil slick towards the coast - and hampering recovery efforts with winds and seas.

[LaBreeze]

Winds are expected to turn and blow towards the west and northwest. This is not good for our coast. Currents will shift as well.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If that Low does move to the northern gulf within another week, look to another severe outbreak of midwest and southeast storms in conjunction with it. It will feed lots of moisture up into the midwest, and it appears that a front will be crossing the country just ahead of its arrival. So I suspect that the moisture will be sucked up in front of that front as it goes by. In fact, this system could find itself becoming part of that front I would guess, as it will be near the tail end. That could bolster the thunderstorms and activity across the panhandle and florida as it passes eastward a few days later.

[Jagno]

I would think even a weak low in the northern gulf in the next couple of weeks could be significant in terms of pushing the growing oil slick towards the coast - and hampering recovery efforts with winds and seas.

They announced today that they will do a control burn-off of the oil I think beginning tomorrow so the oil should be dissipated by the time this system possibly reaches the Gulf.

[wxman57]

Just another bogus low predicted by the GFS, most likely. That's what the GFS does this time of year.