Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

[KWT]

The Gulf will warm quite a lot this week as well with winds coming from the SE/SSE for the whole week, I'd imagine pockets of above average SST's will be emerging in the gulf during the next 7 days, esp closer to the coast where the water is more shallow.

[cycloneye]

The GOMEX is starting to warm especially in the loop current and BOC.

[gatorcane]

Here we go with a comparison of last year, this year, and 2005 (last hyper-active year in the Atlantic). Seems that the Atlantic is running more and more above normal with each passing day. This year is clearly more above normal now than even 2005.

What I continue to find remarkable is just how similar the map looks now as it did this time in 2005, even down to the areas that are running above and below normal. One difference is that el nino is weaker now than at this time in 2005 as the SSTs in the EPAC are not running as above normal.

Could this year be a hyper-active year as well? Given these SSTs and other factors that I am seeing we can't rule out that possibility.

2010:


2005:


2009

[KWT]

Whats really interesting is the Gulf wasn't really that warm at this time in 2005, only the loop current was really showing up as a positive anomaly....just like it is again in 2010.

I certainly think we are looking at a busy ole season!

[Blown Away]

I notice the Pacific waters off Alaska/Washington are much cooler compared to 2005. If these waters stay cooler compared to 2005, what kind of an effect will it have on the fronts moving from W to E across the CONUS and can it lead to deeper or shallower troughs during hurricane season?

[HouTXmetro]

:uarrow: I notice the Pacific waters off Alaska/Washington are much cooler compared to 2005. If these waters stay cooler compared to 2005, what kind of an effect will it have on the fronts moving from W to E across the CONUS and can it lead to deeper or shallower troughs during hurricane season?

Good Question

[Aquawind]

Well it turns out May has already brought us the warmest and first 90 degree weather of the year down here in SW Florida. The forecast calls for highs near 90 and lows in the mid 70's for the next week and probably for the next 6 months. The GOM and surrounding temps are going to rise quickly now and those cool blue anomolies are going to be near gone or warm yellow when the season starts. WOW! That is going to be scarey looking energy for the hurricane season and not just at the surface. There will be alot of fuel for major hurricanes this season.

[cycloneye]

Paul,you are right about that.Here is a comparison if any between 2009 and 2010 on April 30.

April 30,2009



April 30,2010

[SkeetoBite]

It was 93F here (Lakeland, FL) yesterday and forecast 95F today. Was on Sarasota and Tampa Bay waters for a couple days late in the week; the warmest water I found was 71F. Probably warmer in the shallows.

The water heats up real fast and it won't be too long before the surface temps around here are in the upper 80s to 90F. The warmest I saw the water temps here were in 2005 at a whopping 92F.

[KWT]

Yeah those Gulf waters are going to warm up quite readily....upper high over the Gulf isn't going anywhere fast with the ECM showing it still very much in tact right out to 240hrs so some big warming is likely.

[jinftl]

Gulf water around Florida is warming up in a hurry. Some current buoy reports from the following locations:

Clearwater Beach:



Naples:



Key West:

[vegastar]

The below normal anomalies are shrinking:

[KWT]

Also worth noting the 2C+ anomaly has spread westwards and an area of it isn't really that far from the Caribbean now...and we are going through a major -ve NAO phase which should last a good 10 days, so there isn't likely to be any cooling either.

Going to beat 2005s anomalies easily at this rate

[cycloneye]

Its early may but look how warm are the sst's in the Caribbean.

[Ivanhater]

Gulf really starting to heat up

[HouTXmetro]

I will really be interested in seeing next weeks Gulf Temps. This week has been a scorcher for the West Gulf.

[Ivanhater]

Yellow is now starting to pop in the NW Gulf, with the high settled over the Gulf and temps in the low 90's for much of the Gulf coast, the gulf will continue filling in with the yellow.

[Ivanhater]

Just amazing how just 2 days the Gulf has heated up. No doubt because of the high settled in with 90s along the Gulf coast. In a matter of 2 days darker blues have given way to yellow popping up along the Northern Gulf..amazing. With the weather pattern persisting across the Gulf, you can imagine what a it will look like in a week!

[cycloneye]

The latest NAO forecast is to continue Negative which promotes more warming to the MDR as the trade winds continue to be relativly weak.

[KWT]

I'm not sure how much more above average the SST's can go, resp in the tropics, I mean those anomalies wouldn't look out of place on a Strong El Nino now, esp in the east of the basin!