2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season is here

[cycloneye]

NHC director Bill Read said on an interview in Orlando that NOAA will release its first 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 20th.

[cycloneye]

Happy Easter to all.This week will be an important one in terms of what to expect in the upcomming 2010 Atlantic hurricane season as two private forecasters will release their April outlooks and they are Colorado State University's Phil Klotzbach / Dr Gray (7th of April) and Tropical Storm Risk (9th of April)

[srainhoutx]

Going to interesting to see if the SE CONUS/GOM Ridge holds as we near the start of Tropical Season. Seems to have established now and meduim/long range guidance suggests that it will remain in place.

[Sambucol]

Going to interesting to see if the SE CONUS/GOM Ridge holds as we near the start of Tropical Season. Seems to have established now and meduim/long range guidance suggests that it will remain in place.

Is that good or bad for us along the Gulf coast?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If it stays where it is right now, that would be great for west coast FL, but not so good for the north and western gulf!
However, this is only April, and it is unlikely that the current situation won't change for 5 months.
So this time of year, everyone needs to simply prepare and be ready for what could be a rocky season no matter where you live. As has often been reiterated here: prepare no matter where along the coast you live, cuz it only takes one!
(and even those who live a ways inland must also prepare for flooding, loss of electricity, and the possibility of long term guests who may be staying with them from the coast! haha)

[srainhoutx]

Dr. Gray and Dr. Klotzbach spoke for about an hour at the close of today's meeting (National Hurricane Conference). Phil Klotzbach is waiting until April 7th to reveal the new outlook, though he said that looking at the 11-16 named storms predicted in December, he'd be leaning toward the higher number.

Here's a shot of Dr. Gray introducing Phil. Max Mayfield is sitting in the middle:

I'll bump this up since today is the expected Update from the young Dr. Klotzbach and CSU.

[cycloneye]

At 10:00 AM EDT it will be released. My opinion is that they will raise a little bit their numbers from the December ones.

[wxman57]

Probably near the upper end of his 11-16 named storm prediction from December. 15 or 16 named storms. Could go higher for the June update if the Euro forecast for SLPs in the Basin go as forecast.

[KWT]

Yeah they have gone for 15 NS in the end, I really think there is every chance of that being too low as well!

[Annie Oakley]

Come on people-post your projections

[cycloneye]

As we get closer to June 1 when the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season starts officially,now is a good time to make all the preparations needed at your house and that way you dont have to rush at the last minute.You never know if your area will be threatened by a hurricane and that is why every year the preparations are needed.Prepare for the worse case scenario but hope for the best.In my case I always prepare before June 1.

[thetruesms]

As we get closer to June 1 when the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season starts officially,now is a good time to make all the preparations needed at your house and that way you dont have to rush at the last minute.You never know if your area will be threatened by a hurricane and that is why every year the preparations are needed.Prepare for the worse case scenario but hope for the best.In my case I always prepare before June 1.

This is a great reminder - I've always recommended that people be as prepared as possible before June 1, so there's little/no shopping that needs to be done when everyone's going crazy.

Is it bad that I'm a little excited about getting together my first preparedness kit?

[FireBird]

Agreed Cycloneye!! The SE Caribbean has been EXTREMELY DRY since November 09, and we've had thousands of forest fires here at home. NW Trinidad was particularly hard hit (where i live ), and meteorologists here are warning the public of the outcome - FLOODS. We had our first proper shower last week, and my street was a river. The rain wasn't enough to make a dent to the reservoirs (we're officially in drought), so the streets are still dirty with silt and debris.
I hate waiting till May to make final preparations, but I have some more saving to do to get as much done.
I know other islands have been affected by the dry conditions also, so brace yourselves my friends. This is gonna be one wild river ride, hurricane or not!!!

[cycloneye]

Agreed Cycloneye!! The SE Caribbean has been EXTREMELY DRY since November 09, and we've had thousands of forest fires here at home. NW Trinidad was particularly hard hit (where i live ), and meteorologists here are warning the public of the outcome - FLOODS. We had our first proper shower last week, and my street was a river. The rain wasn't enough to make a dent to the reservoirs (we're officially in drought), so the streets are still dirty with silt and debris.
I hate waiting till May to make final preparations, but I have some more saving to do to get as much done.
I know other islands have been affected by the dry conditions also, so brace yourselves my friends. This is gonna be one wild river ride, hurricane or not!!!

I dont know if you know this but we have a forum where all the Caribbean members go to post what is going on weatherwise in the islands.Hopefully Trinidad gets out of the drought very soon.

Link to Caribbean -Centralamerica Weather Thread.

viewtopic.php?f=24&p=1976269#p1976269

[cycloneye]

Searching the internet,I found this forecast for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season from North Carolina University. I never had seen this from this university in past years until today. Different from all the rest of the experts,they only focus on El Nino 1-2 close to the west coast of Southamerica. They have a busy GOM as the numbers there are between 4-7 systems.

http://cfdl.meas.ncsu.edu/research/TCoutlook_2010.pdf

Their numbers are the following:

14-19 named storms
7-11 hurricanes

Summary of 2010 Forecast Results
The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to be above normal. The expected number of
named storms developing in the Atlantic basin is significantly higher than the climatologies of
the last two decades; however, the number of landfalling hurricanes and tropical storms along the
US Gulf and Atlantic coasts are not significantly differenta from the climatologies of the last two
decades. From June 1 to November 30, 2010, we expectb 14-19 named storms to be formed in
the Atlantic basin (Fig.1), which is higher that climatologies of the past 20 years and that of the
past fifty years (9-11 storms). 7-11 storms are expected to become hurricanes (Fig.2). There is
an approximate 80 percent chance that at least one tropical cyclone will hit the U.S. Southeast
Coast (Fig.3), and an approximate 70 percent chance that it will be of hurricane status (Fig.4).
For the Gulf of Mexico, we expect 4-7 named storms to be formed (Fig.5), of which 2-4 become
hurricanes (Fig.6). 3-6 named storms (Fig.7) are expected to make landfall along the Gulf Coast.
There is an approximate 80 percent chance at least 1 of the landfalling storms will be of
hurricane status (Fig.8). The chance for at least 1 major hurricane to hit the U.S. Gulf Coast is
approximately 55 percent (Fig.9).

[vbhoutex]

I think I remember seeing them put out a prediction last year, but I can't tell you where I saw it. I can tell you this much-I DON'T LIKE THEIR THOUGHTS-ESPECIALLY ABOUT THE GOM!!

[KWT]

Certainly backs up the idea of a busy season, I happen to think the Gulf may not actually do that badly this year but of course it does only take one, think the east coast has a decent chance of kopping one this summer...

Whatever happens, just one month more or less to go now...and the EPAC season starts in just over 2 weeks!

[SETXWXLADY]

Going to interesting to see if the SE CONUS/GOM Ridge holds as we near the start of Tropical Season. Seems to have established now and meduim/long range guidance suggests that it will remain in place.

And here we are 25 days since you posted that and I've been wondering the same thing for weeks now. It is getting a bit unsettling how tenacious that ridge has been. And is still forecast to be. The front moving into TX today has it sliding out to the east as it goes through. But as it has shown time after time the ridge pops right back over the SE US/GOM after the front passes through. Following the EURO model and according to them this front seems to be the last hurrah for the south anyway. It holds and expands that ridge. The other models are starting to agree but not so strong as the EURO. But the EURO has been unwavering on this ridge for a while now. Of course I have no idea if that will be the set up for the rest of the summer. However, this time last year we had an unwavering trough off the east coast. And that trough did not change all last season. I remember Dr Master's, in a later season update say that things could change but sometimes it's hard to break a months long pattern. So we shall see. As has been said already. EVERYBODY should be prepared. I'm not trying to scare anyone who knows a set up like this could be bad for the western gulf. But we learned a bitter lesson 2 years ago what happens when you downplay a threat. So just be aware and prepare.

[cycloneye]

Another forecast for the 2010 Atlantic season comes out and that is from the Raleigh-Weather Examiner and it forecasts an active season.18/10/4

http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-4053 ... e-forecast

[SETXWXLADY]

Another forecast for the 2010 Atlantic season comes out and that is from the Raleigh-Weather Examiner and it forecasts an active season.18/10/4

http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-4053 ... e-forecast

Wow. Thanks. Part of my hurricane prep is an industrial strength bottle of Pepcid AC. And it's already starting to dwindle down. I think I read only one forecast thus far calling for low numbers. Yikes!