SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[Flyinman]

WOW, where did all of this come from. The last I read and heard, there was not enough mositure for much activity, especially severe weather. Well, hope we at least get a little piece of the rain.

[vbhoutex]

That storm headed close to Bryan is a right-turning supercell and needs to be watched.

Currently it appears to be weakening, but I am not taking my eyes off of it till I'm sure it is done.

[vbhoutex]

That storm headed close to Bryan is a right-turning supercell and needs to be watched.

Currently it appears to be weakening, but I am not taking my eyes off of it till I'm sure it is done.

Chaser now reporting a new wall cloud appearing on this cell.

[vbhoutex]

That storm headed close to Bryan is a right-turning supercell and needs to be watched.

Currently it appears to be weakening, but I am not taking my eyes off of it till I'm sure it is done.

Chaser now reporting a new wall cloud appearing on this cell.

Now reporting it has gusted out. I hope so. Still going to watch the radar.

[vbhoutex]

I don't like what I a seeing with this storm. It has now developed a pronounced hook echo on the Southern end just to the SW of Brenham.

[jasons2k]

It looks like it's just bowing out to me.

[vbhoutex]

It looks like it's just bowing out to me.

That is what it turned out to be. Initially it didn't look like it was bowing, but that is what it was. Now moving in here and we are getting nothing even though radar shows rain.

[southerngale]

46° this morning and it's nearly May! This seems like the first "real" spring we've had in a long time. Many cool nights and mild/warm days. Love it!

[srainhoutx]

Interesting snip from HGX this afternoon. Stalled boundaries and deep tropical moisture...hmmm...must be getting close to "Season"...

A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN STATES BY THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA IN RESPONSE TO THIS.
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE A BROAD SWATH OF
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER TEXAS...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
PASSING ACROSS THE STATE. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE STATE ON FRIDAY. UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME DIFFLUENT OVER THE
AREA AS 110 KT JET MAX AT 300 MB APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE FRIDAY WITH PWS OF
1.4-1.6 INCHES. HOWEVER...A STRONG CAP WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE
700-800 MB RANGE. AT THE VERY LEAST EXPECT SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP UNDER THE CAP. THE BEST CHANCE OF THE CAP BREAKING WILL
BE OVER THE NE ZONES...AND STRONG SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA. SPC HAS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR THE NE HALF OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS (40S/50S)
OVER NE ZONES TAPERING DOWN TO 20S ALONG THE COAST. AN EVEN
STRONGER SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH NORTH TX ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...BY THIS POINT THE CAPPING BECOMES EVEN STRONGER OVER THE
CWA...AND MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE QUITE WARM (500 MB TEMPS AROUND
-6C). GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS
(20S/30S) SATURDAY FOR SHALLOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...THINKING THAT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA. SFC DRYLINE WILL LIKELY REACH NW ZONES LATE
SATURDAY THEN STALL BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE LEVELS DEEPEN FURTHER SUNDAY/MONDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
BEGINS TO TAP INTO SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE. PWS INCREASE TO 1.6-1.8
INCHES THIS PERIOD. CAPPING ALSO APPEARS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THIS
PERIOD. HAVE MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
ANTICIPATION OF SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS TEXAS LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE THIS COULD BE A VERY WET PERIOD FOR SE TX...AS
PWS INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES...AND GOOD CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE SFC AND 850 MB BOUNDARIES. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT POPS AT LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY BUT MAY NEED TO RAISE THEM LATER ON.

FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT
HUMIDITY TO BE AT SUMMERTIME LEVELS WHICH WILL SEEM LIKE QUITE A
SHOCK AFTER SUCH A COOL WINTER AND SPRING. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AS WELL.

35

[jasons2k]

Morning update from Jeff ---

Who would have thought that with an El Nino pattern this past winter/spring that our spring storm season would be totally non-existent?? I'll be first to admit - not me.

So I'm going on my 5th spring here in SE Texas and every single season it's all cap, all the time. I could probably count on one hand the number of good old-fashioned springtime squall lines in the last five years. What gives??

Looks like our best hope now is the summer seabreeze thunderstorms and I don't recall that doing much either since 2005 when we moved here.

That cactus thread may need to be reactivated.

Anyway -- here it is:

After several very nice weather days, muggy 70 degree dewpoints will return by early Friday and remain in place through the weekend.

Another strong trough will develop over the SW US with pieces of energy ejecting into the plains Friday through the weekend. A weak frontal boundary will limp into SE TX Saturday and push toward the coast by late Sunday/early Monday. Impressive moisture advection from the western Caribbean Sea will bring low to mid 70 degree “summertime” moisture into the region starting Friday. While moisture levels increase to 175% of normal for this time of year, SW flow in the mid levels will once again cap the area off. It appears that for most of the area the good moisture, decent instability, and strong shear will go unrealized due to the strong capping that will develop.

The exception is possibility over our northern counties where the cap will be weakest by forcing and strong daytime heating. Approach of a dry line feature Friday evening to just E of I-35 combined with strong heating could bust the cap in the region north of Austin to Huntsville. This matches fairly well with the SPC Day 2 outlook. Any storms that do develop will likely go severe quickly given 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE and strong low to mid level wind shear. Profiles look favorable for supercells with a large hail and wind damage threat, but the likelihood of ignition is fairly low.

A muddled pattern for the weekend as the main energy passes north of SE TX and the dry line/weak front stalls across the region. Moisture will pool along this boundary and with strong heating each day the air mass will become unstable by mid afternoon. Main question remains as to if the cap can be broken. Past experience this spring has shown little hope of overcoming such capping and storms have failed to develop. Will throw in 30/40% for both Saturday and Sunday with the best threat periods being Saturday PM and Sunday PM during/just after maximum heating. Main threat area will be N of I-10 on Saturday and then across the entire area on Sunday. A few storms may become severe with damaging downburst winds and large hail, but no widespread severe weather is expected.

The other story today and Friday will be the winds as low pressure deepens into the 980mb over NW TX today. Strong low level jet will develop and winds are already responding this morning along the mid coast. Will likely see sustained 15-25mph by early afternoon with gust up to 30mph…may gust to 35mph along the coast and 40mph around Matagorda Bay. Will keep strong winds going through Friday before weakening as the gradient weakens over the weekend.

[southerngale]

Cactus thread? lol - I remember that. I checked KFDM a little while ago and was thinking that this is the best chance of rain (for multiple days) that I've seen in a while. 40%/40%/60%/30% for Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

While we could use the rain, I do hate to get it over the weekend as we have a baseball tournament this weekend. Even though we haven't had much rain, the last tournament was rained out and canceled (Saturday, March 20th). Timing... ugh.

[PTrackerLA]

We need the rain badly, almost 9" below normal for the year now and working on our third driest April ever. I don't care when it comes it just needs to start raining, but we'll probably miss most of it this weekend to our north or east which has happened over and over again this spring. I'm worried that if we remain this dry we could be looking at some major heat and drought come late May.

[vbhoutex]

We had 0.73" of rain this month. Officially we aren't nearly as far behind as you are, but I know here at the house we are behind more than the airport official site. We had some light rain last night and ther radar shows some more around so maybe we will catch up this weekend.

[SETXWXLADY]

Subtle.

[southerngale]

Am I the only one who read that as NEWsnow instead of NEWSnow? It must be because it's warming up outside. Snow sounds nice! lol

Yikes... getting close to 90° - I've enjoyed this very comfortable spring so far, but it's gotta get hot sometime.

[jasons2k]

Oh come on!! 60's - 80's isn't "Hot" here in Texas!! They don't use the "hot" label in these parts unless it's at least 95-plus.

Low 60's in the morning with low humidity?? That's downright chilly for May!

I thought I saw "New Snow" there for a second

[SETXWXLADY]

Oh come on!! 60's - 80's isn't "Hot" here in Texas!! They don't use the "hot" label in these parts unless it's at least 95-plus.

Low 60's in the morning with low humidity?? That's downright chilly for May!

I thought I saw "New Snow" there for a second

Lol. I just noticed the NEWSNOW. Quick one I am. The only problem is is that 80's here are HOT! Yuck! It starts getting uncomfortable any time the wind is from the south. But this year has been milder than most. I remember in 2008 it was too hot to fish in April! Lol.

[southerngale]

Oh come on!! 60's - 80's isn't "Hot" here in Texas!! They don't use the "hot" label in these parts unless it's at least 95-plus.

Low 60's in the morning with low humidity?? That's downright chilly for May!

I thought I saw "New Snow" there for a second

I guess they're referring to the highs approaching 90° for their HOT icon, and not the lows. That is hot compared to what the highs have been lately, but it won't be long before upper 80s will seem cool. It's all in how you look at it, I guess.

[Ptarmigan]

We need the rain badly, almost 9" below normal for the year now and working on our third driest April ever. I don't care when it comes it just needs to start raining, but we'll probably miss most of it this weekend to our north or east which has happened over and over again this spring. I'm worried that if we remain this dry we could be looking at some major heat and drought come late May.

Time to buy cans of RAID to rid this cockroach cap and cockroach aloft.

[CajunMama]

Forecasted to hit 90 here in south central louisiana today thru Wednesday. It's summertime!