Late but still important
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 122
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
315 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 315 AM UNTIL 1100 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 125 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF NASHVILLE
TENNESSEE TO 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MONTICELLO ARKANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 119. WATCH NUMBER 119 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
315 AM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 118...WW 120...WW 121...
DISCUSSION...BKN BAND OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...NOW
EXTENDING FROM E CNTRL AR NE INTO WRN KY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY
EWD. ADDITIONAL SMALLER STORMS MAY FORM IN CONFLUENT MOIST LOW LVL
FLOW EXTENDING FROM SRN AR INTO NRN MS. GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW LVL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...STRENGTH OF DEEP SWLY SHEAR...AND QUALITY OF
MOISTURE...SETUP MAY YIELD ISOLD TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DMGG
WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. STORM STRENGTH/TORNADO THREAT MAY
INCREASE TOWARD LATE MORNING IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME
HEATING...ESPECIALLY FROM SRN AR ENE INTO NRN MS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
Good night from BAMA
Tornado Outbreak April 29-May 2, HIGH RISK AR, TN, MS
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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bamajammer4eva
- Category 4
- Posts: 907
- Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2010 3:21 am
- Location: Ozark, AL
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thetruesms
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 844
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2007 1:14 pm
- Location: Tallahasee, FL
- Contact:
No surprise today has been upgraded to moderate, was the right thing to do thats for sure after last night's fun and games!
Plenty of flash flood warnings out, due to these slow moving thunderstorms we have at the moment, massed into a very impressive looking MCS feature.
Plenty of flash flood warnings out, due to these slow moving thunderstorms we have at the moment, massed into a very impressive looking MCS feature.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Here is day 2 warning, mainly for eastern areas it has to be said:
SPC AC 010512
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 AM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD
INTO THE NERN STATES...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD...POSITIVELY-TILTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
THE CNTRL U.S. THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE NERN PACIFIC INTO WRN CANADA AND THE
PACIFIC NW. WITHIN THIS AIRFLOW REGIME...A VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK INITIALLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PROGRESS
NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION EVENTUALLY INTO QUEBEC.
AS THIS OCCURS...A LOWER LATITUDE IMPULSE OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WILL ALSO PROGRESS NEWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX INTO THE OH
VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A CYCLOGENETIC SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEAD SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM NRN IND/LOWER MI THROUGH SWRN
ONTARIO INTO WRN QUEBEC. THE NRN EXTENSION OF A COLD FRONT TRAILING
THIS SURFACE LOW WILL SURGE EWD THROUGH THE UPPER OH VALLEY...LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND THE NERN STATES. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST
ALONG SWRN EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER MS OR TN
VALLEY WITH THIS SEGMENT OF THE FRONT MOVING MORE SLOWLY EWD.
...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO NERN STATES...
A STRONG SLY/SWLY LLJ WILL SERVE TO MAINTAIN A BROAD...PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR WHERE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL BE COMMON.
CLOUDS AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TSTM ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION...NAMELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN OH INTO TN
VALLEYS. HOWEVER...00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT
LOCALLY STRONGER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
DELMARVA NWD INTO PARTS OF PA/NY/NJ AND ALSO OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WHERE AFTERNOON MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG.
A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING FROM PARTS OF IND/OH SSWWD INTO MS
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND A
MOIST AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS
SUCH...THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A MORE
PERSISTENT AND COMPARABLY GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL GULF STATES WHERE TSTMS WILL
BE FUELED BY THE INFLUX OF HIGH THETA-E AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.
A SECONDARY CORRIDOR OF MORE CONCENTRATED SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP
EWD FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NY/PA TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. HERE...THE
NEWD MIGRATION OF A 40+ KT SWLY LLJ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION AND A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS
INDICATE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITH THE THREAT FOR HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES.
...KS/NRN OK...
DESPITE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 40S...DAYTIME HEATING
COUPLED WITH COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /I.E. -20 TO -22 C AT 500
MB/ WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST WEAK CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY ALONG WEAK NE-SW ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF HAIL IN A FEW STORMS INTO SUNDAY
EVENING
SPC AC 010512
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 AM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD
INTO THE NERN STATES...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD...POSITIVELY-TILTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
THE CNTRL U.S. THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE NERN PACIFIC INTO WRN CANADA AND THE
PACIFIC NW. WITHIN THIS AIRFLOW REGIME...A VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK INITIALLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PROGRESS
NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION EVENTUALLY INTO QUEBEC.
AS THIS OCCURS...A LOWER LATITUDE IMPULSE OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WILL ALSO PROGRESS NEWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX INTO THE OH
VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A CYCLOGENETIC SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEAD SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM NRN IND/LOWER MI THROUGH SWRN
ONTARIO INTO WRN QUEBEC. THE NRN EXTENSION OF A COLD FRONT TRAILING
THIS SURFACE LOW WILL SURGE EWD THROUGH THE UPPER OH VALLEY...LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND THE NERN STATES. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST
ALONG SWRN EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER MS OR TN
VALLEY WITH THIS SEGMENT OF THE FRONT MOVING MORE SLOWLY EWD.
...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO NERN STATES...
A STRONG SLY/SWLY LLJ WILL SERVE TO MAINTAIN A BROAD...PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR WHERE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL BE COMMON.
CLOUDS AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TSTM ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION...NAMELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN OH INTO TN
VALLEYS. HOWEVER...00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT
LOCALLY STRONGER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
DELMARVA NWD INTO PARTS OF PA/NY/NJ AND ALSO OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WHERE AFTERNOON MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG.
A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING FROM PARTS OF IND/OH SSWWD INTO MS
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND A
MOIST AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS
SUCH...THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A MORE
PERSISTENT AND COMPARABLY GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL GULF STATES WHERE TSTMS WILL
BE FUELED BY THE INFLUX OF HIGH THETA-E AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.
A SECONDARY CORRIDOR OF MORE CONCENTRATED SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP
EWD FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NY/PA TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. HERE...THE
NEWD MIGRATION OF A 40+ KT SWLY LLJ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION AND A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS
INDICATE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITH THE THREAT FOR HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES.
...KS/NRN OK...
DESPITE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 40S...DAYTIME HEATING
COUPLED WITH COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /I.E. -20 TO -22 C AT 500
MB/ WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST WEAK CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY ALONG WEAK NE-SW ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF HAIL IN A FEW STORMS INTO SUNDAY
EVENING
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Here is the latest update....and once again....HIGH RISK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010
VALID 011300Z - 021200Z
..THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AR...MS
TN AND
THE MO BOOTHEEL...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA
OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS...LWR TN AND LWR OH VLYS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS
FROM E TX NEWD INTO THE UPR OH VLY...
..SYNOPSIS
HIGH AMPLITUDE CNTRL STATES TROUGH WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY E THIS
PERIOD AS ASSOCIATED NRN PLAINS UPR LOW REMAINS QSTNRY AND ATTENDANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING CHIHUAHUA SHEARS ENE ACROSS W
TX...OK...AND...BY SUN MORNING...KS/MO. MID/UPR LVL
SPEED MAX WITH THE CHIHUAHUA SYSTEM WILL REDEVELOP NE INTO N TX/OK
BY THIS EVE...AND FURTHER EXPAND NE ACROSS MID MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS
EARLY SUN.
AT THE SFC...MAIN FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STNRY FROM LWR MI
TO E TX TODAY...WITH COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY OVERNIGHT
STORMS LIKELY TO LIFT SLOWLY N ACROSS AR AND THE LWR TN VLY. A WAVE
SHOULD FORM OVER NE TX OR THE ARKLATEX LATER TODAY...NEAR
INTERSECTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH FRONT. THE WAVE SHOULD TRACK
NNE INTO THE LWR OH VLY TONIGHT/EARLY SUN.
..E TX/LWR MS VLY INTO THE LWR TN/LWR OH VLYS THROUGH TONIGHT
WSW-ENE ORIENTED QLCS OVER THE LWR MS AND TN VLYS MAY FURTHER WEAKEN
LATER THIS MORNING AS WEAK HEIGHT RISES OVERSPREAD REGION AND SFC
TEMPERATURES REACH DIURNAL MINIMUMS. SFC HEATING AND CONTINUED
INFLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR SHOULD...HOWEVER...SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF
SOME STORMS IN WHAT IS LEFT OF THE MCS BY EARLY AFTN...WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TO ITS S OVER SRN/CNTRL AR AND NRN
MS. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTN OVER NE
TX AND SE OK...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM CHIHUAHUA UPR
IMPULSE INCREASES ATOP SHALLOW FRONT.
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RICH MOISTURE /PW 1.50-1.75
INCHES WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S/ SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND S OF MCS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND E OF FRONT...WITH SBCAPE EXPECTED TO BE AOA 2000 J/KG
WITH MINIMAL CINH. COUPLED WITH STRONGLY-SHEARED LOW TO MID LVL
WIND FIELD...SETUP COULD SUPPORT SCTD SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES/SVR HAIL.
AS THE CHIHUAHUA SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPR LVL SPEED MAX /WITH
250 MB FLOW AROUND 150 KTS/ CONTINUE NEWD LATER THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT...DOWNSTREAM SLY LLJ SHOULD MARKEDLY INCREASE OVER THE LWR
MS AN TN VLYS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ENHANCEMENT OF EXISTING
STORMS...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...FROM THE ARKLATEX
E/NEWD INTO THE LWR TN AND LWR OH VLYS THROUGH THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
60 KT DEEP SWLY SHEAR AND DEEPLY-MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL MID/UPR LVL FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL ECHO
TRAINING/LEWPS AS SFC WAVE TRACKS NE TOWARD THE OH VLY. THE SETUP
ULTIMATELY MAY SUPPORT MULTIPLE CORRIDORS HAVING A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TORNADOES FROM MUCH OF AR AND NRN MS NEWD INTO WRN/CNTRL
TN...WRN/CNTRL KY AND PERHAPS SRN IL/SRN INDIANA TONIGHT/EARLY SUN.
..MIDDLE/UPR OH VLY
ERN END OF AFOREMENTIONED QLCS SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS ERN KY AND
CNTRL/ERN OH THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
AND MODEST LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW MAY SUPPORT A MODEST SVR THREAT
/DMGG WINDS OR AN ISOLD TORNADO/ THROUGH EARLY EVE. ADDITIONAL
STRONG TO SVR ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD
/AFTER 06Z SUN/ AS SFC WAVE MOVES NE TOWARD THE LWR OH VLY AND
ASSOCIATED LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER ERN KY/OH
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010
VALID 011300Z - 021200Z
..THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AR...MS
TN AND
THE MO BOOTHEEL...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA
OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS...LWR TN AND LWR OH VLYS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS
FROM E TX NEWD INTO THE UPR OH VLY...
..SYNOPSIS
HIGH AMPLITUDE CNTRL STATES TROUGH WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY E THIS
PERIOD AS ASSOCIATED NRN PLAINS UPR LOW REMAINS QSTNRY AND ATTENDANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING CHIHUAHUA SHEARS ENE ACROSS W
TX...OK...AND...BY SUN MORNING...KS/MO. MID/UPR LVL
SPEED MAX WITH THE CHIHUAHUA SYSTEM WILL REDEVELOP NE INTO N TX/OK
BY THIS EVE...AND FURTHER EXPAND NE ACROSS MID MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS
EARLY SUN.
AT THE SFC...MAIN FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STNRY FROM LWR MI
TO E TX TODAY...WITH COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY OVERNIGHT
STORMS LIKELY TO LIFT SLOWLY N ACROSS AR AND THE LWR TN VLY. A WAVE
SHOULD FORM OVER NE TX OR THE ARKLATEX LATER TODAY...NEAR
INTERSECTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH FRONT. THE WAVE SHOULD TRACK
NNE INTO THE LWR OH VLY TONIGHT/EARLY SUN.
..E TX/LWR MS VLY INTO THE LWR TN/LWR OH VLYS THROUGH TONIGHT
WSW-ENE ORIENTED QLCS OVER THE LWR MS AND TN VLYS MAY FURTHER WEAKEN
LATER THIS MORNING AS WEAK HEIGHT RISES OVERSPREAD REGION AND SFC
TEMPERATURES REACH DIURNAL MINIMUMS. SFC HEATING AND CONTINUED
INFLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR SHOULD...HOWEVER...SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF
SOME STORMS IN WHAT IS LEFT OF THE MCS BY EARLY AFTN...WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TO ITS S OVER SRN/CNTRL AR AND NRN
MS. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTN OVER NE
TX AND SE OK...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM CHIHUAHUA UPR
IMPULSE INCREASES ATOP SHALLOW FRONT.
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RICH MOISTURE /PW 1.50-1.75
INCHES WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S/ SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND S OF MCS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND E OF FRONT...WITH SBCAPE EXPECTED TO BE AOA 2000 J/KG
WITH MINIMAL CINH. COUPLED WITH STRONGLY-SHEARED LOW TO MID LVL
WIND FIELD...SETUP COULD SUPPORT SCTD SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES/SVR HAIL.
AS THE CHIHUAHUA SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPR LVL SPEED MAX /WITH
250 MB FLOW AROUND 150 KTS/ CONTINUE NEWD LATER THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT...DOWNSTREAM SLY LLJ SHOULD MARKEDLY INCREASE OVER THE LWR
MS AN TN VLYS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ENHANCEMENT OF EXISTING
STORMS...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...FROM THE ARKLATEX
E/NEWD INTO THE LWR TN AND LWR OH VLYS THROUGH THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
60 KT DEEP SWLY SHEAR AND DEEPLY-MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL MID/UPR LVL FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL ECHO
TRAINING/LEWPS AS SFC WAVE TRACKS NE TOWARD THE OH VLY. THE SETUP
ULTIMATELY MAY SUPPORT MULTIPLE CORRIDORS HAVING A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TORNADOES FROM MUCH OF AR AND NRN MS NEWD INTO WRN/CNTRL
TN...WRN/CNTRL KY AND PERHAPS SRN IL/SRN INDIANA TONIGHT/EARLY SUN.
..MIDDLE/UPR OH VLY
ERN END OF AFOREMENTIONED QLCS SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS ERN KY AND
CNTRL/ERN OH THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
AND MODEST LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW MAY SUPPORT A MODEST SVR THREAT
/DMGG WINDS OR AN ISOLD TORNADO/ THROUGH EARLY EVE. ADDITIONAL
STRONG TO SVR ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD
/AFTER 06Z SUN/ AS SFC WAVE MOVES NE TOWARD THE LWR OH VLY AND
ASSOCIATED LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER ERN KY/OH
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
srainhoutx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6919
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
- Location: Haywood County, NC
- Contact:
Re: Tornado Outbreak April 29-May 2, HIGH RISK Arkansas
Hopefully not a reapeat of last weekend. Stay Safe Folks...
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
30% tornado risk, thats pretty impressive it has to be said...
Things should kick off earlier today, so its going to be one very long day, already getting some Severe thunderstorm/tornado warnings in from the MCS....
Things should kick off earlier today, so its going to be one very long day, already getting some Severe thunderstorm/tornado warnings in from the MCS....
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
srainhoutx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6919
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
- Location: Haywood County, NC
- Contact:
Re: Tornado Outbreak April 29-May 2, HIGH RISK Arkansas
Just took a peek at the RUC, SREF and WFR data. Very impressive severe weather parameters for the areas in the High Risk. Also concerned with the clearing in Eastern TX. This may very well lead to further destabilization as the day progresses...
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6919
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
- Location: Haywood County, NC
- Contact:
Re: Tornado Outbreak April 29-May 2, HIGH RISK Arkansas
Flooding may well be one of the headlines from this event as well. From Memphis...
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
852 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
ARC035-037-093-111-123-TNC047-075-097-157-167-011915-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.W.0039.000000T0000Z-100501T1915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CROSS AR-MISSISSIPPI AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-CRITTENDEN AR-POINSETT AR-
LAUDERDALE TN-FAYETTE TN-SHELBY TN-HAYWOOD TN-TIPTON TN-
852 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT FOR
TIPTON...SOUTHWESTERN HAYWOOD...SHELBY...NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...
LAUDERDALE...SOUTHEASTERN POINSETT...CRITTENDEN...NORTHEASTERN ST.
FRANCIS...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND CROSS COUNTIES...
...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR NORTHERN SHELBY AND TIPTON COUNTIES...
AT 852 AM CDT...SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE 8 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL
HAS OCCURRED IN TIPTON AND NORTHERN SHELBY COUNTIES OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. WATER IS OVER MANY ROADS AND HOMES ARE FLOODED. RESCUES HAVE
BEEN REPORTED IN TIPTON COUNTY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO EARLE...
FORREST CITY...KEISER...LEPANTO...LUXORA...MADISON...MARION...MARKED
TREE...OSCEOLA...PARKIN...TYRONZA...WEST MEMPHIS...WILSON...WYNNE...
BARTLETT...COLLIERVILLE...COVINGTON...GERMANTOWN...MIDTOWN MEMPHIS...
MILLINGTON...RIPLEY...CORDOVA...FORT PILLOW STATE PARK...MEEMAN
SHELBY FOREST STATE PARK AND VILLAGE CREEK STATE PARK.
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
852 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
ARC035-037-093-111-123-TNC047-075-097-157-167-011915-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.W.0039.000000T0000Z-100501T1915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CROSS AR-MISSISSIPPI AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-CRITTENDEN AR-POINSETT AR-
LAUDERDALE TN-FAYETTE TN-SHELBY TN-HAYWOOD TN-TIPTON TN-
852 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT FOR
TIPTON...SOUTHWESTERN HAYWOOD...SHELBY...NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...
LAUDERDALE...SOUTHEASTERN POINSETT...CRITTENDEN...NORTHEASTERN ST.
FRANCIS...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND CROSS COUNTIES...
...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR NORTHERN SHELBY AND TIPTON COUNTIES...
AT 852 AM CDT...SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE 8 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL
HAS OCCURRED IN TIPTON AND NORTHERN SHELBY COUNTIES OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. WATER IS OVER MANY ROADS AND HOMES ARE FLOODED. RESCUES HAVE
BEEN REPORTED IN TIPTON COUNTY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO EARLE...
FORREST CITY...KEISER...LEPANTO...LUXORA...MADISON...MARION...MARKED
TREE...OSCEOLA...PARKIN...TYRONZA...WEST MEMPHIS...WILSON...WYNNE...
BARTLETT...COLLIERVILLE...COVINGTON...GERMANTOWN...MIDTOWN MEMPHIS...
MILLINGTON...RIPLEY...CORDOVA...FORT PILLOW STATE PARK...MEEMAN
SHELBY FOREST STATE PARK AND VILLAGE CREEK STATE PARK.
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:First back-to-back High Risk days since 2006.
Amazing how this season has exploded after such a slow start isn't it!
Yep flooding is a big issue, those slow moving storms are really dumping some rain thats for sure.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
New watch, NOT a PDS - only until 4 pm. Probs 70/40.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
950 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ALABAMA
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 950 AM UNTIL
400 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
NASHVILLE TENNESSEE TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 122...
DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
TN/MS/LA THIS MORNING...WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
WIDESPREAD WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THE
RISK OF DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
THROUGHOUT THE REGION IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES.
POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HART
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
950 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ALABAMA
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 950 AM UNTIL
400 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
NASHVILLE TENNESSEE TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 122...
DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
TN/MS/LA THIS MORNING...WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
WIDESPREAD WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THE
RISK OF DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
THROUGHOUT THE REGION IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES.
POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HART
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srainhoutx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6919
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
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Re: Tornado Outbreak April 29-May 2, HIGH RISK AR, TN, MS
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6919
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
- Location: Haywood County, NC
- Contact:
Re: Tornado Outbreak April 29-May 2, HIGH RISK AR, TN, MS
Keep eye on Eastern TX later today. Surface analysis suggests the Frontal Boundary is nearing College Staion and the cap is eroding behind this boundary. Temps in the mid 80's and DP's in the 70's in the warm sector should provide significant fuel for some stronger training development as the day progesses IMHO.
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