Tornado Outbreak April 29-May 2, HIGH RISK AR, TN, MS

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Re: Tornado Outbreak April 29-May 2, HIGH RISK AR, TN, MS

#261 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat May 01, 2010 11:40 am

SPC AC 011631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NRN
LA...ERN AND SRN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN AND THE MO BOOTHEEL...


...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF AR...LA...MS...SERN MO...FAR SRN IL...SWRN IN...WRN
KY...WRN TN...NWRN AL AND NRN/CENTRAL MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD
INTO OH VALLEY...

TORNADO OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND
NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI.


...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
INTO THE CENTRAL STATES WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WITHIN THIS LARGE TROUGH...A STRONG UPPER IMPULSE...WILL
EJECT RAPIDLY NEWD FROM SWRN TX INTO SERN KS/SWRN MO...ALONG WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING 90-100 KT MID LEVEL JET. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
A MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR TO AN ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY FROM LOWER MI SWWD INTO ERN TX. A WEAK SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK NEWD ALONG THE FRONT...FROM NERN TX INTO AR THIS
EVENING...AND INTO MO/IL OVERNIGHT.

...ERN TX...LOWER MS VALLEY...LWR TN AND OH VALLEYS...
AT MID MORNING...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM TN WWD INTO
PORTIONS OF NRN MS/SERN AR...AND VERY MOIST SLY FLOW MAY MAINTAIN
THIS QUASI-STATIONARY MCS THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...ESPECIALLY WITH THE STORMS ON THE
SOUTH END OF THE COMPLEX...THOUGH TRAINING STORMS SUGGEST HEAVY
RAINS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHER
STORMS WILL ALSO BE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THESE BAND OF STORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ERN LA...MS AND NWRN AL...WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES.

HOWEVER...AS UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT/SURFACE LOW IN THE ARKLATEX
REGION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS SHOULD THEN
DEVELOP/SPREAD NEWD AHEAD OF THE NEWD MOVING SURFACE LOW. THESE
STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY...MLCAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG AND 60-70 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. THESE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS.
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...EXTREME LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORS LONG
LIVED AND VERY DAMAGING TORNADOES WITH THESE STORMS. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR THE VERY DAMAGING TORNADOES WILL BE IN THE ARKLATEX BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
HIGH RISK AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO ADVANCE NEWD INTO WRN TN/LOWER OH VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WITH A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG.
HOWEVER...SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAKER
ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE OVERALL THREAT WILL BE LOWER
THAN ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA.


..IMY/STOPPKOTTE.. 05/01/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1639Z (12:39PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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Re:

#262 Postby KWT » Sat May 01, 2010 11:43 am

CrazyC83 wrote:1630Z: High risk cut back on the east side (perhaps the convection slowing things?) and expanded slightly SW.


Probably the MCS has shunted a lot of cloud eastwards which may have slightly reduced the risk for the eastern part of the warning compared with earlier thought?
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Re:

#263 Postby Bunkertor » Sat May 01, 2010 11:46 am

CrazyC83 wrote:1630Z: High risk cut back on the east side (perhaps the convection slowing things?) and expanded slightly SW.


Where is the update ? I can only see a 20 minute delay
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Re: Re:

#264 Postby RL3AO » Sat May 01, 2010 11:57 am

Bunkertor wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:1630Z: High risk cut back on the east side (perhaps the convection slowing things?) and expanded slightly SW.


Where is the update ? I can only see a 20 minute delay


This usually updates a little faster than the SPC site.

http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/
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Re: Tornado Outbreak April 29-May 2, HIGH RISK AR, TN, MS

#265 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat May 01, 2010 11:58 am

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 011652
ARZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-020200-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE ARKALTEX REGION
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS AR INTO THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE
ARKALTEX REGION NEWD ACROSS AR INTO THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.


THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS WITH TORNADOES...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE
AND HAIL...ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SPREADING INTO THE
OHIO VALLY OVERNIGHT.

A FEW TORNADIC STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LONG TRACK
AND VERY DAMAGING TORNADOES
...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
ARKLATEX REGION AROUND MID AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE STORMS SHOULD THEN SPREAD AND
DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS AND INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..IMY.. 05/01/2010

$$
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Re: Re:

#266 Postby Bunkertor » Sat May 01, 2010 12:02 pm

RL3AO wrote:
Bunkertor wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:1630Z: High risk cut back on the east side (perhaps the convection slowing things?) and expanded slightly SW.


Where is the update ? I can only see a 20 minute delay


This usually updates a little faster than the SPC site.

http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/


Ah, thanks ! And...Go Yids
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#267 Postby KWT » Sat May 01, 2010 12:12 pm

Very agressive wording there, expecting a few strong and long lived tornadoes!

Seems to be a little busier then this time yesterday at the moment as well.
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#268 Postby psyclone » Sat May 01, 2010 12:46 pm

wow this looks like an extremely dangerous situation later today... and that says nothing about the flash flood situation which is impressive in its own right. i can attest to the deep, tropical high octane fuel headed up toward the svr wx risk zone... current temps here are in the mid to upper 80's and dewpoints in the low to mid 70's with southeasterly winds. i am thankful to be below the fray.
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Re: Tornado Outbreak April 29-May 2, HIGH RISK AR, TN, MS

#269 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat May 01, 2010 1:14 pm

CURRENT CONDITIONS in the initiation/threat area:

Arkansas
El Dorado - A few clouds, 85 (75)
Hot Springs - Partly cloudy, 75 (67)
Jonesboro - Mostly cloudy, 72 (67)
Little Rock - Mostly cloudy, 74 (69)
Monticello - Partly cloudy, 80 (74)
Mount Ida - Partly cloudy, 72 (64)
Mountain Home - Partly cloudy, 70 (54)
Pine Bluff - A few clouds, 85 (74)
Russellville - Mostly cloudy, 76 (57)
Texarkana - A few clouds, 82 (70)

Louisiana
Alexandria - Mostly cloudy, 84 (74)
Monroe - Light rainshower, 80 (76)
Shreveport - A few clouds, 86 (72)
Tallulah - Partly cloudy, 81 (75)

Mississippi
Columbus - Mostly cloudy, 79 (73)
Greenville - Mostly cloudy, 81 (76)
Greenwood - Mostly cloudy, 79 (76)
Jackson - Thunderstorm, 77 (73)
Tupelo - Mostly cloudy, 77 (72)
Vicksburg - Partly cloudy, 81 (75)

Missouri
Cape Girardeau - Overcast, 71 (66)
Poplar Bluff - Light rain, 72 (65)
West Plains - Mostly cloudy, 70 (55)

Tennessee
Dyersburg - Overcast, 68 (66)
Memphis - Heavy rain, 73 (72)
Jackson - Heavy rain, 68 (66)
Union City - Overcast, 67 (66)

Texas
Longview - A few clouds, 87 (68)
Lufkin - A few clouds, 89 (70)
Tyler - Clear, 79 (64)
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#270 Postby KWT » Sat May 01, 2010 1:17 pm

Flooding issue still occuring, some stations now running into the foot range for the last 18hrs or so, and given there is still a large convective MCS system only slowly shifting as well as new vigorous convective cells going up behind it to the west over AR, things could become serious even without the tornadoes...

Fully expecting the worst of it to come together in the late eveing hours, though there will be more severe storms before of course....bu I still think conditions aloft are very condusive for some tornadoes...probably night-time tornadoes as well sadly.
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#271 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat May 01, 2010 1:20 pm

The broad clearing over most of Arkansas (almost all the high risk area is at least reporting clear breaks, if not just a few clouds) is very ominous. The only thing that can prevent an outbreak now is for a cap to try to rebuild quickly and lock itself in, which is not expected especially with dewpoints in the mid-70s.
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Re: Tornado Outbreak April 29-May 2, HIGH RISK AR, TN, MS

#272 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat May 01, 2010 1:25 pm

SPC AC 011718

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...TN VALLEY...OH VALLEY...CNTRL APPALACHIAN AND NRN
APPALACHIANS...

...TN VALLEY/LOWER MS VALLEY...
A LARGE AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD FROM THE OH VALLEY SSWWD ACROSS WRN TN AND
MS LOCATED ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF A PRONOUNCED 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET. MODEL FORECASTS GRADUALLY MOVE THE MCS EWD DURING THE DAY INTO
THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS ACROSS
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS SUNDAY SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD 90 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET. THE AMOUNT OF
SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH WARMING SFC TEMPS JUST AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP PORTIONS OF THE LINE SEVERE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECASTS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEVELOP A ZONE OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM MS NNEWD ACROSS NRN AL INTO MIDDLE TN
WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD BE 50 TO 60 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING-LINE SEGMENTS. THE MORE DOMINANT
SUPERCELLS THAT MOVE EWD INTO A WELL-FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH A
STRONG TORNADO POSSIBLE.
BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED VERY STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE LOW-LEVEL
JET IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL-DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY
EVENING WHICH COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SEVERE LINEAR MCS LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH A SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE
RISK MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES CONCERNING THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.


...CNTRL AND NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE WRN ATLANTIC. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NERN STATES SUNDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN RESPONSE...SFC DEWPOINTS
SHOULD REACH 60 F ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ALLOWING MODERATE
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO
INITIATE AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL
FLOW SUGGESTING A SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP FROM
WRN PA ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL NY WHERE MODEL FORECASTS SHOW THE
GREATEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND L0W-LEVEL FLOW. SUPERCELLS
AND BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.


...ERN KS/SE NEB/NW MO/SRN IA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES. TO THE EAST OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP A POCKET OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY IN THE MID-MO VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THE
DAY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ON THE NRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY
WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING SSWWD WITH TIME INTO THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE MID MO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT
SUGGESTING A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD CONTAIN HAIL.

..BROYLES.. 05/01/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1824Z (2:24PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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#273 Postby KWT » Sat May 01, 2010 1:28 pm

Yep, those dew point profiles are pretty eye-opening as well, plenty into the 70s and we still have some heating during the afternoon to come as the warm sector carries on moving through.
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Re:

#274 Postby Texas Snowman » Sat May 01, 2010 1:33 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:The broad clearing over most of Arkansas (almost all the high risk area is at least reporting clear breaks, if not just a few clouds) is very ominous. The only thing that can prevent an outbreak now is for a cap to try to rebuild quickly and lock itself in, which is not expected especially with dewpoints in the mid-70s.


Agreed, not looking good. Vis sat shot on Intellicast.com is really showing that clearing trend and/or cloud breaks taking place.

And it's still early afternoon.


http://www.intellicast.com/National/Sat ... n=USAR0088

Lots of fuel going to be available I'm afraid. Probably going to be a rough evening unfolding once again...
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#275 Postby KWT » Sat May 01, 2010 1:39 pm

Yep, some of the 12/15z models were suggesting some really severe stuff going through to at least 06z, which would mean some areas are going to have to deal a good 9-10hrs of severe thunderstorms/tornadoic rick.

Going to be a very busy 12hrs on here as well!
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#276 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat May 01, 2010 1:40 pm

New watch by 3 pm, which will be a PDS Tornado Watch. Probably with huge tornado probs like 95/90 or something I would guess.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0445
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...NRN LA...MUCH OF AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 011837Z - 011930Z

...PDS TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 20Z ACROSS MUCH OF AR/NRN LA
AND NERN TX...


BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS HEATING CONSIDERABLY SOUTH-EAST OF PRIMARY
WIND SHIFT FROM ERN TX INTO SRN AR WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 80S. BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELD HAS
GRADUALLY CHANGED CHARACTER OVER THE LAST HOUR WITH APPARENT
DEEPENING OF THERMALS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BREACHED.
MODIFIED 18Z SOUNDING FROM LZK...WITH WARM SECTOR
CONDITIONS...SUPPORTS AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH SBCAPE VALUES ON
THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY
SUPPORTS A RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ ACROSS LA AND SRN AR BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS SHOULD EASILY MATURE
AND ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED
AIRMASS. LATEST THINKING IS TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MAY INITIATE ACROSS
THE SRN HALF OF AR...SUBSEQUENTLY EXPANDING INTO REGIONS OF NERN TX
AND NRN LA BY 21-22Z. ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD NEWD TOWARD THE
BOOT HEEL OF MO THIS EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STRONGLY
FAVOR LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES.


..DARROW.. 05/01/2010


ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 32809435 36349192 35808977 32219191 32809435
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Re: Tornado Outbreak April 29-May 2, HIGH RISK AR, TN, MS

#277 Postby Texas Snowman » Sat May 01, 2010 1:46 pm

I thought that some rough stuff might initialize last night from cells that developed NW of Tyler and moved NE. Never came to fruition.

Still think the Texarkana region might be suspect today. 82 there right now with a dewpoint of 70.
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Re: Tornado Outbreak April 29-May 2, HIGH RISK AR, TN, MS

#278 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat May 01, 2010 1:47 pm

WFUS54 KMEG 011846
TORMEG
MSC003-117-139-TNC109-011930-
/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0051.100501T1846Z-100501T1930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
146 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
ALCORN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHWESTERN PRENTISS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
EAST CENTRAL TIPPAH COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWESTERN MCNAIRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 146 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES SOUTH OF RIPLEY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CORINTH...
GLEN...HINKLE...JUMPERTOWN...RIPLEY...THEO AND BIG HILL POND STATE
PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!


.HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3463 8871 3478 8881 3469 8896 3480 8891
3508 8872 3489 8835 3487 8836
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 225DEG 35KT 3467 8888

$$
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Re:

#279 Postby Texas Snowman » Sat May 01, 2010 1:48 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:New watch by 3 pm, which will be a PDS Tornado Watch. Probably with huge tornado probs like 95/90 or something I would guess.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0445
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...NRN LA...MUCH OF AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 011837Z - 011930Z

...PDS TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 20Z ACROSS MUCH OF AR/NRN LA
AND NERN TX...


How many PDS tornado watches is that in the last 7-10 days? More than is normal for an entire year isn't it?
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#280 Postby KWT » Sat May 01, 2010 1:50 pm

Certainly been a lot of them, this is the 3rd High risk this year now, to have 3 in the space of 10 days is actually quite unreal, esp after taking till mid April to get our first moderate of the season!
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