Tornado Outbreak April 29-May 2, HIGH RISK AR, TN, MS
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Stephanie
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Re: Re:
KWT wrote:btangy wrote:Supercell S of Star City, AR continues to intensify having an impressive hail core indicative of some very strong updrafts. Helicity in the RUC is forecasted to increase to 300-400 as the low level jet strengthens. Continue to watch this storm as it tracks to the NE. It has the potential to produce a strong to violent tornado at any time.
It looks very good right now, I'm thinking your right about that one being the one to watch, it really stands out on the radar at the moment.
Currently some friends of mine are on the Des Arc system, will report if anything comes through on the stream.
Best of luck to your friends KWT!
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
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- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Tornado Outbreak April 29-May 2, HIGH RISK AR, TN, MS
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 127
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
805 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 805 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF DYERSBURG
TENNESSEE TO 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OXFORD MISSISSIPPI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 125...WW 126...
DISCUSSION...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS NOW MOVING INTO ERN AR WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT WHILE MOVING NEWD TOWARD NE AR...WRN TN...AND NW MS...IN
ADVANCE OF AN EJECTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. THE
SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
COMPARED TO FARTHER W IN AR...AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FURTHER
INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ. MEANWHILE...THE LOW
LEVELS ARE DESTABILIZING ACROSS MS/WRN TN IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
CONVECTION...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS WELL INTO
THE NIGHT WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES. FARTHER E/SE INTO TN/NE
MS...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN AREAS NEAR THE MS
RIVER...THOUGH SUPERCELLS AND COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS CONVECTION FORMS ALONG THE RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
...THOMPSON
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 127
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
805 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 805 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF DYERSBURG
TENNESSEE TO 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OXFORD MISSISSIPPI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 125...WW 126...
DISCUSSION...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS NOW MOVING INTO ERN AR WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT WHILE MOVING NEWD TOWARD NE AR...WRN TN...AND NW MS...IN
ADVANCE OF AN EJECTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. THE
SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
COMPARED TO FARTHER W IN AR...AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FURTHER
INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ. MEANWHILE...THE LOW
LEVELS ARE DESTABILIZING ACROSS MS/WRN TN IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
CONVECTION...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS WELL INTO
THE NIGHT WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES. FARTHER E/SE INTO TN/NE
MS...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN AREAS NEAR THE MS
RIVER...THOUGH SUPERCELLS AND COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS CONVECTION FORMS ALONG THE RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
...THOMPSON
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Re: Re:
Stephanie wrote:
Best of luck to your friends KWT!
I think they won't be spending too much longer out there now its getting dark, esp given the chances of a rain-wrapped night-time tornado are as relativly high as they are, no point in taking any big risks really....though from what I can tell they are going to head south and try to intercept the cell near Star City, the bigg'un lol....or possibly line up for the cell heading towards Stuttgart.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0453
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0816 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SR AR/NRN LA/NERN TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 125...
VALID 020116Z - 020215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 125 CONTINUES.
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HODOGRAPH CURVATURE SINCE 23-00Z
SUGGESTS STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AR TRACKING NEWD TOWARD THE MS RIVER
INTO WRN TN/NWRN MS WILL HAVE AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD TO BECOME
TORNADIC.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES/AREA VWP DATA INDICATED AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
SHEAR FROM NRN LA INTO CENTRAL/ERN AR AND WRN TN DURING THE LAST 1-2
HOURS. THIS INCREASE IS LOCATED ALONG AND S OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WHICH EXTENDED FROM E TX NEWD TO AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
AT TXK AND THEN NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL TO NERN AR. THE GREATEST
INCREASE IN EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES EXTENDED FROM NRN LA INTO
CENTRAL-NERN AR AND EWD INTO WRN TN WITH VALUES AOA 300 M2/S2. THIS
CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS LIKELY A RESULT OF A STRENGTHENING
SSWLY LLJ FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO MID SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE MOISTURE
RETURN WITH LOW LCLS SUPPORTING A GREATER TORNADO THREAT.
..PETERS.. 05/02/2010
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 31859540 34469405 35809293 35939104 33989104 32429279
31339435 31859540
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0816 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SR AR/NRN LA/NERN TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 125...
VALID 020116Z - 020215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 125 CONTINUES.
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HODOGRAPH CURVATURE SINCE 23-00Z
SUGGESTS STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AR TRACKING NEWD TOWARD THE MS RIVER
INTO WRN TN/NWRN MS WILL HAVE AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD TO BECOME
TORNADIC.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES/AREA VWP DATA INDICATED AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
SHEAR FROM NRN LA INTO CENTRAL/ERN AR AND WRN TN DURING THE LAST 1-2
HOURS. THIS INCREASE IS LOCATED ALONG AND S OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WHICH EXTENDED FROM E TX NEWD TO AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
AT TXK AND THEN NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL TO NERN AR. THE GREATEST
INCREASE IN EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES EXTENDED FROM NRN LA INTO
CENTRAL-NERN AR AND EWD INTO WRN TN WITH VALUES AOA 300 M2/S2. THIS
CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS LIKELY A RESULT OF A STRENGTHENING
SSWLY LLJ FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO MID SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE MOISTURE
RETURN WITH LOW LCLS SUPPORTING A GREATER TORNADO THREAT.
..PETERS.. 05/02/2010
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 31859540 34469405 35809293 35939104 33989104 32429279
31339435 31859540
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Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6151
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Tornado Outbreak April 29-May 2, HIGH RISK AR, TN, MS
KARK TV met showing a well defined swallowtail/updraft area being shown on radar SW of Gillette.
Serious looking hook there...
Serious looking hook there...
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Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6151
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:New watch - should be PDS - coming out.
So that's 7 PDS tornado watches in last 9 days or so?
Amazing...
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Thus far the tornadic threat hasn't been quite as bad as was feared, the LLJ that was progged to give 60-80kts of shear thus far seems to be that high...
That being said still some real nice hooks out there, but overall not quite as severe as yesterday upto this point...
That being said still some real nice hooks out there, but overall not quite as severe as yesterday upto this point...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... nderlay=1#
Shows where the most conducive conditions are. Just one cell there.
Shows where the most conducive conditions are. Just one cell there.
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Will be interesting to see how this continues in the next few hours, but I'm not sure I'll be around to witness given its already 2.30am here in the Uk!
Still low level shear should build and as you say the best instablity is probably close to the state boundary.
Still low level shear should build and as you say the best instablity is probably close to the state boundary.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re:
Bunkertor wrote:Pool - Chelsea coming up, KWT !
Yep, given the poor season the pool have had, gotta favour Chelsea but we shall see, doesn't always work like that!
The chase team from the UK I'm watching currently heading southwards to intercept the system over De Witt...thus far still seem to have been rather lucky with regards to what could have happened.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Also worth noting a new wave of cells heading into E.AR now which are going to need very close watching over the next 2-3hrs, esp if the low level shear increases...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Tornado Outbreak April 29-May 2, HIGH RISK AR, TN, MS
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
900 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
ARC037-123-020215-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0056.000000T0000Z-100502T0215Z/
CROSS AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-
900 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL ST. FRANCIS AND CROSS COUNTIES...
AT 859 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS NEAR THE CROSS AND WOODRUFF COUNTY LINE ALONG HIGHWAY
49...NEAR FAIR OAKS...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MCCRORY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WYNNE...
HYDRICK...BRUSHY LAKE...MERSMAN...BIRDEYE...TILTON...ELLIS CHAPEL...
HAMLIN...L`ANGVILLE...FAIR FIELD...MC ELROY...FITZGERALD CROSSING...
WITTSBURG AND LEVESQUE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
.HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
&&
LAT...LON 3538 9105 3538 9104 3539 9063 3514 9065
3500 9104 3501 9105
TIME...MOT...LOC 0159Z 231DEG 39KT 3522 9094
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
900 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
ARC037-123-020215-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0056.000000T0000Z-100502T0215Z/
CROSS AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-
900 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL ST. FRANCIS AND CROSS COUNTIES...
AT 859 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS NEAR THE CROSS AND WOODRUFF COUNTY LINE ALONG HIGHWAY
49...NEAR FAIR OAKS...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MCCRORY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WYNNE...
HYDRICK...BRUSHY LAKE...MERSMAN...BIRDEYE...TILTON...ELLIS CHAPEL...
HAMLIN...L`ANGVILLE...FAIR FIELD...MC ELROY...FITZGERALD CROSSING...
WITTSBURG AND LEVESQUE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
.HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
&&
LAT...LON 3538 9105 3538 9104 3539 9063 3514 9065
3500 9104 3501 9105
TIME...MOT...LOC 0159Z 231DEG 39KT 3522 9094
$$
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:Watch those cells back in SW Arkansas closely. That could be the next round of activity.
Yep I think thats quite likely to occur actually.
Also the Star City cell now heading on a track that will take it rather close to Memphis.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL TO NERN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 020219Z - 020315Z
STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MS AND ACTIVITY MOVING FROM NWRN AL INTO
MIDDLE TN WILL BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. A NEW WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED YET THIS EVENING...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE DOES NOT
WARRANT A NEW WW AT THIS TIME.
MODIFIED 00Z JAN/BHM SOUNDINGS/HODOGRAPHS INDICATED A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR A TORNADO THREAT WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/HODOGRAPH CURVATURE /SFC-1 KM SHEAR 30-35 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH
AOA 300 M2/S2/. THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNCAPPED OVER MS WITH MLCAPE
AOA 2500 J/KG AND LOW LCLS. MODIFIED 00Z BHM SOUNDING FOR 01Z
SURFACE CONDITIONS AT MSL SUGGEST DIABATIC COOLING IS INCREASING THE
SBCINH WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE BASED THREAT FARTHER E INTO AL.
DESPITE A FAVORABLE TORNADO ENVIRONMENT...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL STORMS YET THIS EVENING TO THE S
AND E OF WW 127.
...NWRN AL INTO MIDDLE TN...
WEAKER INSTABILITY WITH NWD EXTENT INTO MIDDLE TN MAY WEAKEN THE
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THIS REGION ONCE IT TRACKS NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD FROM SERN THROUGH SRN MIDDLE
TN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH EFFECTIVE
SRH VALUES 300-500 M2/S2.
...PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL MS...
FARTHER SW INTO CENTRAL MS...THE LACK OF WELL DEFINED SURFACE
BOUNDARIES...AND THIS REGION BEING WELL REMOVED FROM THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH FARTHER W SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT COULD BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR A TORNADO THREAT.
..PETERS.. 05/02/2010
ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 35918774 35688668 34568727 33178830 32618868 32298925
32549012 33688989 34198847 35918774
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL TO NERN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 020219Z - 020315Z
STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MS AND ACTIVITY MOVING FROM NWRN AL INTO
MIDDLE TN WILL BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. A NEW WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED YET THIS EVENING...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE DOES NOT
WARRANT A NEW WW AT THIS TIME.
MODIFIED 00Z JAN/BHM SOUNDINGS/HODOGRAPHS INDICATED A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR A TORNADO THREAT WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/HODOGRAPH CURVATURE /SFC-1 KM SHEAR 30-35 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH
AOA 300 M2/S2/. THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNCAPPED OVER MS WITH MLCAPE
AOA 2500 J/KG AND LOW LCLS. MODIFIED 00Z BHM SOUNDING FOR 01Z
SURFACE CONDITIONS AT MSL SUGGEST DIABATIC COOLING IS INCREASING THE
SBCINH WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE BASED THREAT FARTHER E INTO AL.
DESPITE A FAVORABLE TORNADO ENVIRONMENT...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL STORMS YET THIS EVENING TO THE S
AND E OF WW 127.
...NWRN AL INTO MIDDLE TN...
WEAKER INSTABILITY WITH NWD EXTENT INTO MIDDLE TN MAY WEAKEN THE
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THIS REGION ONCE IT TRACKS NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD FROM SERN THROUGH SRN MIDDLE
TN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH EFFECTIVE
SRH VALUES 300-500 M2/S2.
...PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL MS...
FARTHER SW INTO CENTRAL MS...THE LACK OF WELL DEFINED SURFACE
BOUNDARIES...AND THIS REGION BEING WELL REMOVED FROM THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH FARTHER W SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT COULD BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR A TORNADO THREAT.
..PETERS.. 05/02/2010
ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 35918774 35688668 34568727 33178830 32618868 32298925
32549012 33688989 34198847 35918774
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Tornado Outbreak April 29-May 2, HIGH RISK AR, TN, MS
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
926 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
ARC037-111-020245-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0058.000000T0000Z-100502T0245Z/
CROSS AR-POINSETT AR-
926 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
POINSETT AND NORTH CENTRAL CROSS COUNTIES...
AT 926 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. MAJOR
DAMAGE TO A HOUSE AND POWER LINES DOWN WERE REPORTED 10 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WYNNE ARKANSAS. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CHERRY
VALLEY...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF HARRISBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HARRISBURG...
SUPPLY...PROMISED LAND...WILEY CROSSING...MC CORMICK...WHITAKER...
LANDERS...WEONA...OLD WEONA...WEONA JUNCTION...BAY VILLAGE...
STEWART...PAYNEWAY AND JUDD HILL.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
.HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
&&
LAT...LON 3536 9083 3539 9093 3563 9087 3564 9043
3536 9061
TIME...MOT...LOC 0226Z 225DEG 39KT 3544 9075
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
926 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
ARC037-111-020245-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0058.000000T0000Z-100502T0245Z/
CROSS AR-POINSETT AR-
926 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
POINSETT AND NORTH CENTRAL CROSS COUNTIES...
AT 926 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. MAJOR
DAMAGE TO A HOUSE AND POWER LINES DOWN WERE REPORTED 10 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WYNNE ARKANSAS. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CHERRY
VALLEY...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF HARRISBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HARRISBURG...
SUPPLY...PROMISED LAND...WILEY CROSSING...MC CORMICK...WHITAKER...
LANDERS...WEONA...OLD WEONA...WEONA JUNCTION...BAY VILLAGE...
STEWART...PAYNEWAY AND JUDD HILL.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
.HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
&&
LAT...LON 3536 9083 3539 9093 3563 9087 3564 9043
3536 9061
TIME...MOT...LOC 0226Z 225DEG 39KT 3544 9075
$$
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