Tornado Outbreak April 29-May 2, HIGH RISK AR, TN, MS

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KWT
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#521 Postby KWT » Sun May 02, 2010 8:31 am

Lots of rainfall once again so it seems flooding will sadly once again be a major story with this system as it only very slowly eases eastwards.

Slight risk of severe weather today for eastern parts, they've held off from a moderate it appears.
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#522 Postby KWT » Sun May 02, 2010 8:49 am

Also on top of the last post, sounds like the flooding is now reaching *historic* levels in some parts, Nashville has severe flooding in places due to the huge falls that are occuring.


RECORD FLOODING IN THE MILL CREEK AND HARPETH RIVER BASINS

...RECORD FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE MILL CREEK AND HARPETH RIVER BASINS...
...ESTIMATED RAIN TOTALS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES OCCURRED OVER THE RIVER BASINS SATURDAY...

RIVER LEVELS ON MILL CREEK AND THE HARPETH RIVER ROSE
TO RECORD LEVELS SATURDAY DUE TOTHE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

ALONG MILL CREEK, NEAR ANTIOCH, IN DAVIDSON COUNTY, THE
RIVER EXCEEDED THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 23.8 FEET, SET
ON MAY 4, 1979. LATE SATURDAY EVENING, THE RIVER ROSE
TO NEAR 26 FEET, CAUSINGWIDESPREAD FLOODING IN
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA.


ALONG THE HARPETH RIVER, FROM FRANKLIN...TO BELLEVUE...
TO KINGSTON SPRINGS, RECORD FLOODINGWAS FORECAST
TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

AT FRANKLIN, THE RECORD CREST WAS 35.2 FEET, SET ON
FEBRUARY 14, 1948. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO
RISE TO NEAR A RECORD LEVEL OF 34.9 FEET BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

AT BELLEVUE, THE RECORD CREST WAS 24.3 FEET,
ALSO SET ON FEBRUARY 14, 1948. THE RIVER
IS EXPECTED TO REACH ALMOST 26 FEET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

AT KINGSTON SPRINGS, THE RECORD CREST WAS 32.2
FEET, SET ON JANUARY 7TH, 1946. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED
TO RISE ABOVE 36 FEET BY SUNDAY EVENING.

A *VERY* serious event is going on here it seems.
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Re: Tornado Outbreak April 29-May 2, HIGH RISK AR, TN, MS

#523 Postby breeze » Sun May 02, 2010 9:32 am

Nashville is a flooded mess - and more moving in - check out the video from channel 4 Nashville
of the building floating down Interstate 24 and smashing into a semi (from yesterday):

http://www.wsmv.com/video/23380386/index.html
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Re: Tornado Outbreak April 29-May 2, HIGH RISK AR, TN, MS

#524 Postby Stephanie » Sun May 02, 2010 9:39 am

How did you make out yesterday, breeze? I was thinking about you and hoping all was well!
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Re: Tornado Outbreak April 29-May 2, HIGH RISK AR, TN, MS

#525 Postby breeze » Sun May 02, 2010 9:53 am

Thanks, Steph - we only had to hit the hall closet once yesterday due to a funnel cloud sighting
(which passed over about a block away!), so I'm watching for the same activity, today. Local news
is all over the Nashville flooding....unbelievable!
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#526 Postby KWT » Sun May 02, 2010 10:10 am

Yep the flooding is the true story in this outbreak, even more so then the tornadoes that occured Friday eveing/night, don't think anyone could argue with that...

Certainly historic now thats for sure!
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#527 Postby KWT » Sun May 02, 2010 11:09 am

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
TENNESSEE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY NASHVILLE TENNESSEE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1042 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010 /1142 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010/

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
TENNESSEE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY NASHVILLE TENNESSEE.

STATE EMERGENCY OFFICIALS ARE ADVISING THAT TRAVEL IS HAZARDOUS
ON MANY INTERSTATE AND HIGHWAYS DUE TO FLOODING IN WEST AND MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

LOCAL ROAD AND STATE HIGHWAY CLOSURES ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY LOW-
LYING AREA. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

MOTORISTS VIOLATING ROADBLOCKS OR ROAD CLOSURES ARE SUBJECT TO
CITATION BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION


Shows just how serious the matter is, very severe flooding indeed occuring today...probably once in 100 year type event.
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#528 Postby brunota2003 » Sun May 02, 2010 11:36 am

Mom said they might lose the culvert at the house...again. They just got it fixed late last year after the flooding in July washed both it and the bridge over the creek out. Luckily my dad knows how to build and built a better bridge than the previous owners built. His bridge is still holding strong, high and dry for now. They live in Kentucky and it is "raining cats n dogs" (per my Vantage Vue console). She was getting her camera ready, encase the culvert goes again. The sad thing is, the creek should have no problems whatsoever passing through the pipe (it is a small creek, and the pipe is a lot bigger than the actual creek). Just goes to show you how much water is in the creek, along with the tremendous power flowing water has.
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#529 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun May 02, 2010 11:53 am

They should order a driving ban in the area or at least close all the Interstates. Having cars on the road will NOT help in clearing them.
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#530 Postby KWT » Sun May 02, 2010 12:28 pm

Yeah its messy enough out there as it is without people thinkin they can drive through the water and get stuck themself, seen that happen plenty of times before!
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#531 Postby KWT » Sun May 02, 2010 12:34 pm

Also worth noting the line of storms is still going strong at the moment so some places could easily get another 3-4 inches, I know some places got 4 inches in the space of 4hrs earlier this morning!
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#532 Postby KWT » Sun May 02, 2010 12:37 pm

I missed this earlier on but here it is anyway, Severe Thunderstorm watch for the cells on the band heading eastwards through Alabama and up to Tennessee:


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 134
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST ALABAMA
MIDDLE TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM NOON UNTIL 500 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF CROSSVILLE TENNESSEE TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
COLUMBUS MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 131...WW 133...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST MS AND
MIDDLE TN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT VERY STRONG WINDS JUST
ABOVE SURFACE...COMBINED WITH LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF ONGOING
CONVECTION WILL PROMOTE BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING TORNADO
THREAT AS WELL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23030.
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#533 Postby KWT » Sun May 02, 2010 12:39 pm

Also here is a tornado watch as well:


SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 133
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
805 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOUISIANA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 805 AM UNTIL 300
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
JACKSON MISSISSIPPI TO 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 131...WW 132...

DISCUSSION...SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FORMING ALONG
CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM SE LA INTO CNTRL MS. STRONG LOW LVL
SPEED SHEAR...RICH MOISTURE...ONSET OF SFC HEATING...AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK IMPULSE NOW MOVING NNE ACROSS THE SABINE
RVR VLY MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.
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Re: Tornado Outbreak April 29-May 2, HIGH RISK AR, TN, MS

#534 Postby AdamFirst » Sun May 02, 2010 1:10 pm

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
TENNESSEE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY NASHVILLE TENNESSEE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1157 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE HICKMAN
COUNTY MAYOR...STEVE GREGORY.

HICKMAN COUNTY IS IN A FLOOD EMERGENCY.

THERE IS NO POWER IN THE COUNTY AND RADIO COMMUNICATIONS ARE OUT.
THERE ARE THREE EMERGENCY SHELTERS AVAILABLE FOR THOSE AFFECTED
BY THE HISTORIC FLOOD. THE SHELTERS ARE BON AQUA METHODIST CHURCH...
FAIRFIELD CHURCH OF CHRIST...AND THE CENTERVILLE CHURCH OF CHRIST.

MANY ROADS ARE FLOODED WITH REPORTS OF MUD SLIDES. RESIDENTS ARE
ASKED TO CONSERVE RESOURCES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.


An entire county paralyzed, a local government helpless. Hickman County is a rural county west of Nashville, probably no more than 30,000 people in the entire county.

This is intense
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#535 Postby KWT » Sun May 02, 2010 1:39 pm

Without a doubt its very serious, whats worse is the models aren't really showing any real relief in terms of rainfall for a little while yet either, models breaking out thunderstorms behind this band as well in the next 6hrs or so, so we could easily see another 2-3 inches on top of what is already there.

No doubt this is going to be a big natural disaster once all is done....
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Re: Tornado Outbreak April 29-May 2, HIGH RISK AR, TN, MS

#536 Postby breeze » Sun May 02, 2010 4:20 pm

Most definitely, KWT!

This just out:

Historical Record Rainfall Event For Middle TN

Storm total rainfall at Nashville International Airport has reached 13.00 inches as of 3PM CDT.
This surpasses the previous two day total of 6.68 inches set on 9/13 and 9/14, 1979 due to the remnants of Hurricane Fredrick.

James LaRosa/Michael Davis
NWS Nashville, TN

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ohx&storyid=51767&source=0
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#537 Postby KWT » Sun May 02, 2010 4:37 pm

Not just surpasses it, utterly smashes the two day record totally apart!
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#538 Postby KWT » Sun May 02, 2010 4:52 pm

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
WVC023-071-022215-
/O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0032.100502T2143Z-100502T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
543 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN PENDLETON COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 538 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 21 MILES WEST OF UPPER TRACT...OR 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF
GREENBANK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
UPPER TRACT...
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#539 Postby KWT » Sun May 02, 2010 4:52 pm

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
MSC057-081-095-022230-
/O.NEW.KMEG.SV.W.0164.100502T2146Z-100502T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
446 PM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN ITAWAMBA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 446 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM EVERGREEN TO PRAIRIE...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FULTON TO 6 MILES WEST OF
ABERDEEN...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ABERDEEN...
AMORY AND FULTON.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR ABERDEEN LAKE
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#540 Postby KWT » Sun May 02, 2010 4:53 pm

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
448 PM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

MSC007-079-022215-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0122.000000T0000Z-100502T2215Z/
LEAKE MS-ATTALA MS-
448 PM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR ATTALA AND NORTHWESTERN LEAKE COUNTIES...

AT 448 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
NEWPORT MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
MCADAMS BY 455 PM CDT...
KOSCIUSKO BY 500 PM CDT...
HESTERVILLE BY 505 PM CDT...
ETHEL BY 515 PM CDT...
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