Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Updated discussion by NWS San Juan

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1223 PM AST MON MAY 3 2010

.UPDATE...
EXPECT VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. RADAR ESTIMATES AND USGS RAIN GAGES
SENSORS INDICATE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND HALF OF AN INCH IN
ISOLATED AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PORTIONS. SHORT TERM
GRIDS AND ZFP HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO BOTH...TO FIX THE CURRENT
WEATHER...SKY COVER...POPS AND WINDS IN SEVERAL ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS AND SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES AT LEAST THROUGH 03/23Z.
IN ADDITION...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL WITH THESE PASSING SHOWERS. LATEST TJSJ
SOUNDING AT 12Z INDICATED WINDS FROM SFC TO 15 KFT MAINLY FROM
THE EAST NORTHEAST UP TO 21 KNOTS. ACROSS THE TAF SITES THE SFC
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
145 PM AST MON MAY 3 2010

PRC031-051-061-127-137-032030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0084.100503T1745Z-100503T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DORADO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CAROLINA PR-SAN JUAN PR-TOA BAJA PR-
145 PM AST MON MAY 3 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
DORADO...GUAYNABO...CAROLINA...SAN JUAN AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 137 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING ACROSS OR TOWARDS THE
ADVISORY AREA. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN AN INCH TO TWO INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS. AT LEAST
UNTIL 430 PM AST...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THESE AREAS. THIS WILL LEAD FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS NOW OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF SAN
JUAN METRO AREA...RIO PIEDRAS...TOA BAJA AND DORADO.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
200 PM AST MON MAY 3 2010

PRC001-003-011-081-083-093-097-117-131-141-032100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0085.100503T1800Z-100503T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ADJUNTAS PR-MARICAO PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-UTUADO PR-AGUADA PR-
LAS MARIAS PR-LARES PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-RINCON PR-ANASCO PR-
200 PM AST MON MAY 3 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ADJUNTAS...MARICAO...SAN SEBASTIAN...UTUADO...AGUADA...LAS
MARIAS...LARES...MAYAGUEZ...RINCON AND ANASCO

* UNTIL 500 PM AST

* AT 158 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS
THESE AREAS. DOPPLER RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES WERE NOW BETWEEN AN
INCH TO TWO INCHES AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT
LEAST UNTIL 500 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
PRC003-011-083-097-117-031930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
216 PM AST MON MAY 3 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 330 PM AST FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING
MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
AGUADA...LAS MARIAS...MAYAGUEZ...RINCON AND ANASCO

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ANASCO AND LA PLAYA

AT 206 PM AST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTION OF THESE
MUNICIPALITIES AND MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 20 MPH. SOME OF THESE
STORMS ARE PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 35 MPH OR MORE AT
LEAST UNTIL 330 PM AST.

THE HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS
THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY
ALSO QUICKLY RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY
FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. IF OUTDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG
UNNECESSARY ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
317 PM AST MON MAY 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...PATCHY MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN ONE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TOMORROW. SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD HELP LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BROUGHT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA AGAIN TODAY.
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS ENHANCED BY GOOD DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ACT TO MAINTAIN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK...EVENTUALLY HELPING TO PUSH THE REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN ACROSS THE REGION...AND
CORRESPONDINGLY REDUCED CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...IN THE
MEANTIME...EXPECT ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TOMORROW...AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED
FAVORABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AT TJBQ...TISX AND TIST...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO PASSING SHOWERS. HOWEVER...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO CIGS AND SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TJMZ AT
LEAST THROUGH 03/23Z. TEMPORARY MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR UNTIL THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS. AFTER
03/23Z...EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. SFC WINDS
WERE MAINLY FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1050 PM AST MON MAY 3 2010

.UPDATE...EXPECT VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...
THE NORTH...EAST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP HAD
A GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AND DID NOT SEND
A ZFP UPDATE. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF SEMANTIC
ALTERATIONS TO THE PREVIOUS CWF...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.

[tropicana]

Regional Weather Summary
Mon May 03 2010

Monday's Highs and rain (if any)

Piarco, C. Trinidad 34.3C 94F 0.1mm
Crown Point, Tobago 32.1C 90F 0.3mm

Point Salines, Grenada 33.1C 92F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 31.9C 90F
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 31.3C 88F 0.6mm
Hewannora, St Lucia 31.9C 90F
Vigie, St Lucia 31.2C 88F trace
Canefield, Dominica 31.3C 88F 1.3mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 30.5C 87F 14.7mm

Le Lamentin, Martinique 31.5C 89F 0.2mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 31.5C 89F 1.6mm

Golden Rock, St Kitts 30.4C 86F
VC Bird, Antigua 30.0C 86F
St Thomas, VI 30.6C 87F 2mm
St Maarten, VI 30.7C 87F 0.3mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 30.0C 86F 3.3mm

Norman Manley, Jamaica 32.8C 91F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 34.0C 93F 5.0mm
Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 31.8C 89F
Havana, Cuba 33.1C 91F

Nassau, Bahamas 29.6C 86F
Hamilton, Bermuda 22.9C 73F

Hato, Curacao 32.6C 91F
Flamingo, Bonaire 31.2C 88F
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 33.1C 91F

-justin-

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all. Scattered showers will continue to move thru Puerto Rico today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST TUE MAY 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE NOW LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
TOWARD THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...PUSHING THE HIGH PRESSURE
EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL WATERS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH
THESE SHOWERS WERE GENERATING MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS...MOST
OF THESE SHOWERS WERE MOVING FAST THEREFORE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WERE BETWEEN .5 TO 1 INCH.

SATELLITES AND RADAR IMAGES ARE SHOWING MORE SHOWERS UPSTREAM THE
LOCAL AREA THEREFORE EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS O PUERTO RICO THROUGH
MID MORNING. ALSO SATELLITES IMAGES AREA SHOWING AN AREA OF DRIER
AIR MASS NOW LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THIS
AREA WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS AND GENERATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO A COLD FRONT AND A
WEAKENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE...MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITION
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS TJMZ....WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS TJPS...TJSJ...AND TJBQ IN SHRA.


&&

.MARINE...MODERATE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL TODAY THEREFORE
MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTIONS ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER TONIGHT THEREFORE RELAXING THE
CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1055 AM AST TUE MAY 4 2010

.UPDATE...SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECTED MOST
OF THE ISLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE
SHOWERS WILL DRIFT MORE TO THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...DIURNAL HEATING AND THE LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS
WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AS SUGGESTED BY THE MOST RECENT
SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY...REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLANDS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE TO
INCREASE THE POP`S IN FEW ZONES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF THE TAF SITES AND PARTS OF THE FLIGHT
AREA. THE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ
BETWEEN 18-22Z. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF TJMZ. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

They are already anticipating bad weather from next weekend going into next week. Maybe Barbara,you get the needed rain over there by then.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST TUE MAY 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...MAINTAINING OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. IN THE MEANTIME...A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL HELP TO
LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR IS RAPIDLY MOVING IN ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FROM EAST TO WEST...AND EXPECT THIS DRIER
AIR MASS...COMBINED WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...TO HELP LIMIT DEEP OR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT A MAJOR CHANGE IN WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE RETURNS...AND THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A MORE UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER TJMZ
UNTIL 04/23Z. THESE SHRA IS PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJMZ
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PUERTO
RICO. ALSO...PASSING SHRA ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST PRODUCED BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS OVER TJPS. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...BUT DECREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.

[cycloneye]

April Climate Report for Puerto Rico / Virgin Islands

At hyperlink below you can see all the stats about what occured on April in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. It was above normal in terms of temperatures and slightly below normal on rainfall.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=apr2010cr

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all. A drier day is on tap for today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
548 AM AST WED MAY 5 2010

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...WILL
SLOWLY TRANSITION INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL HELP TO
LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND
THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR IS ONLY SHOWING VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SHOWER FREE CONDITIONS
HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND DICTATE
THE WEATHER THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...THEREFORE EXPECT LIMITED
SHOWERS ACTIVITY OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS AND PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
WILL GENERATE A MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE AND ENHANCED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.


AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AT LEAST
THROUGH 05/16Z. AFTER 16Z...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TJPS...AND TJMZ IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RELAX TODAY THEREFORE SEAS
WILL BECOME LESS CHOPPY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP ON MONDAY AND AT THE SAME TIME INCREASING THE
WINDS WAVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1202 PM AST WED MAY 5 2010

.UPDATE...PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF TODAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECT TO INDUCE ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. OVERALL...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OVER THE LOCAL AREA...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

GRIDS HAS GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS...BUT SENT AN UPDATE
TO THE ZFP TO REDUCE THE SHOWER AND CLOUD COVERAGE IN FEW ZONES
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES. HOWEVER...DURING THE AFTERNOON...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ DUE TO SHRA. A
LINE OF DENSE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO IS
NOW CROSSING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AT FL BTW 25-35 KFT. SFC WINDS AT
TAF SITES WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS EXCEPT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

Nice weather for at least the next couple of days until a surface trough arrives.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
232 PM AST WED MAY 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AND INFLUENCE THE LOCAL
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY
FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AT LEAST
UNTIL LATE FRIDAY...WHEN AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
TO THE FORECAST AREA AND BRING ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN OVERALL DRIER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS A HIGH PRESSURE NOW LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED
TODAY AND TOMORROW...BUT THE DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS
COMBINED WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE MAY INDUCE FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL APPROACH TO THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS
FEATURE WILL INCREASE AND ENHANCE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE...TRADE WINDS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE FREQUENT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...IN ADDITION THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
INCREASE DUE TO FAVORABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. FEW CUMULUS FORMED OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
DURING THE PAST HOURS BUT NO SHOWERS WERE DETECTED BY THE DOPPLER
RADAR AT THIS TIME. LATEST MET DATA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AT 06/1720Z
INDICATED VEERING WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST BTW SFC
TO 10 KFT AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RELAX...THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP ON MONDAY AND AT THE SAME TIME INCREASING THE
WINDS WAVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
913 PM AST WED MAY 5 2010

.UPDATE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. ONLY ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...THE
NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA AT LEAST
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE DIURNAL
HEATING...IN COMBINATION WITH LOCAL EFFECTS WILL INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FEW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES THIS EVENING...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD...
APPROACHING TO THE FA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...INCREASING THE
MOISTURE AGAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ONL;Y MINOR CHANGES WERE
WETRE DONE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. 06/12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND
FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 5K FEET...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLY ALOFT.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all. A wet weekend ahead.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST THU MAY 6 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AND INFLUENCE THE LOCAL
WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. ON FRIDAY AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH TO THE FORECAST AREA AND BRING ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO THE REGION.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING VERY LIMITED SHOWER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DIURNAL HEATING...IN COMBINATION WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FEW SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS DRY AND STABLE WEATHER SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE ON
FRIDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST...
APPROACHING TO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
INCREASING THE MOISTURE AGAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST TAF
SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TJMZ THIS AFTERNOON IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AND TRANQUIL
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

[cycloneye]

This is news to all of us who live in the Caribbean and Central America as the first Tropical Wave is officially introduced and I thought it was good to post the information here.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W FROM 1N-9N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
UPPER-AIR TIME SECTION ANALYSES INDICATE THE WAVE PASSED DAKAR
SENEGAL AROUND 02/1200 UTC. EXAMINING THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM OF
METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC
CONFIRMS PROPAGATION OF THE WAVE LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ AXIS THAT HAS REMAINED LOW-LATITUDE SINCE EMERGING OFF OF
WEST AFRICA A FEW DAYS AGO. AN EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND
05/1210 UTC CAPTURED 15-20 KT RETRIEVALS N OF 4N IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WAVE AXIS AND ALSO CONFIRMED THE APPROXIMATE POSITION OF
THE WAVE. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR THE WAVE ARE
ELEVATED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 130 NM W OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-8N.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

Here comes the surface trough bringing inclement weather.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST THU MAY 6 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN INVERTED TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING...THIS FEATURE WILL
ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN INVERTED TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
IS MOVING TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA AT AROUND 8-10KTS. THIS FEATURE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS AND AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WILL ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS COMBINED WITH THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH WILL
INDUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND THEREFORE URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL ALSO BE LIKELY IN SOME AREAS.


&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A QUICK PASSING SHRA
ACROSS TJMZ THROUGH 06/23Z...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES. THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO REACH
THE LOCAL REGION TOMORROW AND WILL CREATE FREQUENT MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES AFTER 07/16Z.


&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AN INDUCED TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS WILL ENHANCE SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all. A rainy day for Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands. The weekend looks variable with some showers and some sunshine.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST FRI MAY 7 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL GENERALLY LINGER ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH
THEN APPROACHING THE LOCAL REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
TURNING...LOCATED OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE A GOOD
DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL
RESULT IN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH NOT AS PLENTIFUL AS TODAY...MOISTURE WILL
GENERALLY LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY AND SHOULD COMBINE
WITH AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND LOCAL
EFFECTS TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.
LOOKING AHEAD...ALTHOUGH TROUGHINESS WILL TEND TO LIFT AND WEAK
RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE STILL SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH BRIEF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS...WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE USVI THROUGH 07/14Z. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS PR TAF SITES THROUGH 07/12Z...WHEN MVFR CONDS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS TJSJ BY 07/12Z...TJPS BY 07/14Z...AND TJBQ AND TJMZ
AFT 07/16Z. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM AND
TKPK TODAY. LLVL WINDS EXPECTED TO BE E TO ENE AT 10 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
4 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
LOCALLY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE REGIONAL
WATERS TODAY...AS LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA.