Next round of severe weather 7th May Onwards?

[KWT]

Quite an impressive set-up, moderate seems justified up in the NE. Big area of slight as well....I think we will see a fairly decent region of severe storms.

However it does seem like Monday will be the big event, thats probably a 50-50 high risk event...

Unreal to think we could have a 4th high risk in the space of about 15 days!

[johnmarkthom]

Quite an impressive set-up, moderate seems justified up in the NE. Big area of slight as well....I think we will see a fairly decent region of severe storms.

However it does seem like Monday will be the big event, thats probably a 50-50 high risk event...

Unreal to think we could have a 4th high risk in the space of about 15 days!

How far to the East do you do you think the high risk area might go?

[CrazyC83]

Probs are 60/40.

SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 143
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM CDT FRI MAY 7 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO
LAKE ERIE

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
MATTOON ILLINOIS TO 50 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF MANSFIELD OHIO.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SOON ALONG A
SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN IL AND WESTERN IND. ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY MOVE/DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS WATCH AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
AS LARGE SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADS THE REGION. SUFFICIENT MLCAPE
VALUES AND STRONG SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.


...HART

[RL3AO]

NAM sounding for Wichita Falls for Monday evening. A bit of a cap, but thats a scary looking wind profile.

[thetruesms]

NAM sounding for Wichita Falls for Monday evening. A bit of a cap, but thats a scary looking wind profile.

[img]http://i41.tinypic.com/21n1phg.jpg[img]

This is the exact discussion going on amongst my friends back at OU - excitement, but wondering about the capping.

That, and people are trying to remember the last time SPC used the "strong tornadoes" phrase in a Days 5-8 Outlook, including SPC personnel. Usually they leave even their strongest wording at this time frame at "severe weather outbreak", or the like

[KWT]

Yep, the cap could be an issue here, but not doubt the dynamics could be enough to suggest a borderline high risk event...again!

Anyway right now we do have some severe storms in Ohio, plus one sole tornado warning:


TORNADO WARNING
OHC007-055-080230-
/O.NEW.KCLE.TO.W.0003.100508T0140Z-100508T0230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
940 PM EDT FRI MAY 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN ASHTABULA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OHIO
NORTHEASTERN GEAUGA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OHIO

* UNTIL 1030 PM EDT

* AT 938 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CHARDON...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROAMING SHORES...
ORWELL...
ROCK CREEK...
ANDOVER...

THIS TORNADO WARNING IS AN UPGRADE TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FOR THE WARNED AREA.

[wx247]

I need to learn how to read the individual soundings. Anyone know of an online tutorial?

[KWT]

Not a huge number of tornado warnings but there are a few, here is one of the latest, I'll put the others in the other thread...


TORNADO WARNING
OHC005-103-139-169-080315-
/O.NEW.KCLE.TO.W.0005.100508T0222Z-100508T0315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1022 PM EDT FRI MAY 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN ASHLAND COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
SOUTHWESTERN MEDINA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OHIO
NORTHEASTERN RICHLAND COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
NORTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OHIO

* UNTIL 1115 PM EDT

* AT 1020 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ASHLAND...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WEST SALEM...
BURBANK...
WESTFIELD CENTER...
LODI...
GLORIA GLENS PARK...
CHIPPEWA-ON-THE-LAKE...
BRIARWOOD BEACH...
SEVILLE...

[iHeart]

How there is no warning with this storm is beyond me, radar detected a tornado within the storm, yet no warning.

[KWT]

Here is the disscusion for tomorrow, no warning but it could end up gaining a small slight warning by tomorrow:


SPC AC 080558

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2010

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LVL IMPULSE NEAR 43N/145W AT 05Z IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE GRT
BASIN REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...LWR-AMPLITUDE
WAVES WILL CREST THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PD. AT
THE SFC...TAIL-END OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF COASTAL REGION
NOW WILL REDEVELOP NWD THROUGH CNTRL TX BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
LARGE-SCALE SLY RETURN FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE APCHG UPR TROUGH AND BEGIN TO TRANSPORT A RICH
GULF AIR MASS INTO CNTRL/SRN TX. A LEAD IMPULSE WILL LIKELY ENHANCE
ISENTROPIC LIFT/ELEVATED TSTMS OVER PARTS OF OK/N TX AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SPREADING EWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH
DURING THE AFTN. WRN-FRINGES OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND WNW FROM
CNTRL/ERN OK TO CNTRL/ERN KS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SSWLY LLJ
INTENSIFIES TO 50 KTS AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING OCCURS IN THE
H85-H7 LAYER. STORMS WILL BE ROOTED ATOP A STABLE LAYER...BUT
MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 45 KTS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLD ORGANIZED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL.

...SW TX...
BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO STRONGLY HEAT OVER THE MARFA/STOCKTON
PLATEAUS SUNDAY AFTN AND AUGMENT DIURNAL AND INCREASINGLY MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW. ISOLD HIGH-BASED TSTMS WILL BE PSBL OVER THE MTNS BY
LATE AFTN WITH ONE OR TWO CELLS ROOTING INTO THE RICHER MOISTURE
ALONG THE ERN SLOPES IF CINH CAN ERODE SUFFICIENTLY. HAVE ADDED LOW
PROBABILITIES THAT AN ISOLD SUPERCELL MAY EVOLVE WITH PRIMARILY
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL GIVEN 40 KTS OF WLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE
TRANSPECOS DURING THE EVENING.

[KWT]

Monday is still looking pretty explosive, the SPC have gone for a day 3 slight risk but is already mentioning it being upgraded to moderate status.


SPC AC 080727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2010

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO
THE MID-MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MID-LVL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE GRT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL
EJECT ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AS A NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH ON
MONDAY AS THE NEXT IMPULSE DROPS SEWD TO THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...A
LEE LOW WILL INTENSIFY OVER ERN CO THEN MOVE ACROSS NRN KS BY MONDAY
EVENING THEN TO SRN IA BY 12Z TUESDAY. A DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD TO
THE S OF THE LOW...REACHING WRN KS AND THE TX/OK BORDER AREA BY
EARLY AFTN MONDAY...THEN INTO CNTRL KS AND WRN OK BY EVENING. TO
THE E...A WRMFNT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NWD INTO THE MID-MS VLY.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VLY...
MONDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH
STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER
CNTRL/SCNTRL KS AND EXTREME NWRN/NCNTRL OK.

BANDS/CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY
MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KS/OK OWING TO A ROBUST WAA REGIME
WITHIN A BROAD 45-50 KT SSWLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PROVE
PROBLEMATIC FOR A NWD EXPANSION OF THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AFTN AND
THIS UNCERTAINTY WAS THE PRIMARY REASON FOR NOT UPGRADING TO A MDT
RISK.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH...HOWEVER...IN THE RETURN OF
MID/UPR 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS E OF THE DRYLINE/TRIPLE POINT
INTO AT LEAST SWRN KS BY AFTN. DRYLINE CIRCULATION WILL DEEPEN WITH
APPROACH OF THE UPR TROUGH BY MID-AFTN AND STRONG HEATING WILL ERODE
CINH FOR TSTM INITIATION...MOSTLY LIKELY IN WRN KS. FARTHER
S...CINH WILL BE STRONGER AND LARGE SCALE FORCING COMPARATIVELY
WEAKER ACROSS WRN OK. BUT...ISOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS FAR S AS WRN OK/RED RIVER.

EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 55 KTS AND THE ORIENTATION OF VECTORS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE WILL STRONGLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. FCST
HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT STRONGLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH THE
COMPLETE VERTICAL PROFILE SIGNATURES INDICATIVE OF HISTORIC STRONG
TORNADIC CASES. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE...IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR N AND E THE QUALITY WARM
SECTOR WILL EXPAND. THE MAXIMUM TORNADO THREAT MAY REALISTICALLY BE
IN NARROW ZONE ACROSS SCNTRL/CNTRL KS INTO NCNTRL OK BEFORE STORMS
MOVE TOWARD A MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. LATER OUTLOOKS CAN
ADDRESS THIS UNCERTAINTY.

OTHERWISE...STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND
DEVELOP/MOVE ENE TOWARD THE MID-MS VLY OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

[6SpeedTA95]

Monday looks like it will be big north of I40 and south of I70. Hard to be a lot more specific than that given the spread between the GFS and the NAM. But it definitely appears to be a big day on tap. Capping will be a problem for early initiation with convective temps in excess of 96 degrees. However as late afternoon nears forcing and the overall dynamic environment due to the shortwave and dryline should overcome the cap.

All indicators with the exception of the cap point to a significant severe weather event. I fully expect a strongly worded moderate day 2 outlook tomorrow morning. By the noon update we may...MAY see them go high risk. However, given the difference between the GFS and the NAM I would expect them to reserve the high risk for monday morning.

[KWT]

Yeah and obviously the longer the cap holds the greater the instablity will hold, but once the LLJ comes in I'd think the cap will bust anyway, so its just a matter of how long the cap can hold for I feel.

[KWT]

Got a tornado warning out right now which I'll post up here:


TORNADO WARNING
FLC067-079-123-090015-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0015.100508T2342Z-100509T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
742 PM EDT SAT MAY 8 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN TAYLOR COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 815 PM EDT

* AT 740 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 7 MILES NORTH OF DAY...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SUWANNEE RIVER STATE PARK...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BUCKVILLE

[wx247]

When the SPC says this about your area, it tends to get your attention:

***SUPERCELLS WITH LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL
EXPECTED MONDAY LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/N OK...SE KS
AND SW MO***

That is from this morning's day 2 outlook.

[johnmarkthom]

[quote="wx247"]When the SPC says this about your area, it tends to get your attention:

***SUPERCELLS WITH LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL
EXPECTED MONDAY LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/N OK...SE KS
AND SW MO***

That is from this morning's day 2 outlook.


Yep...Not looking too good for the hometeam...

[wx247]

I am interested to see what the SPC does with the day two outlook here in less than an hour. I wonder if they will take the leap and go with a high risk for tomorrow this early.

[6SpeedTA95]

I am interested to see what the SPC does with the day two outlook here in less than an hour. I wonder if they will take the leap and go with a high risk for tomorrow this early.

I could be wrong but due to several "issues" with the models at the moment I don't see them going high risk in half an hour. I expect an expansion in the moderate to include most if not all of the OKC metro. I also think that we may hear them hint about a high risk upgrade tomorrow. But going high risk right now seems a bit early.

[wx247]

And the accuracy prize goes to 6Speed...

[6SpeedTA95]

And the accuracy prize goes to 6Speed...

This is shaping up to be a major severe weather event. We need the NAM and the GFS to come together a bit for a high risk to be warranted but thats starting to happen now and by tomorrow morning, and by lunch for sure, assuming of course things hold up, we will have our high risk.

I would expect the high risk based on the info I have right now to run from just west of Guthrie OK up to just west of Wichita and east perhaps as far as Tulsa or just to the west.